• Title/Summary/Keyword: value prediction

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Development of Back Analysis Program for Total Management Using Observational Method of Earth Retaining Structures under Ground Excavation (지반굴착 흙막이공의 정보화시공 종합관리를 위한 역해석 프로그램 개발)

  • 오정환;조철현;김성재;백영식
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2001.10c
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    • pp.103-122
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    • 2001
  • For prediction of ground movement per the excavation step, observational results of ground movement during the construction was very different with prediction during the analysis of design. step because of the uncertainty of the numerical analysis modelling, the soil parameter, and the condition of a construction field, etc. however accuratly numerical analysis method was applied. Therefore, the management system through the construction field measurement should be achieved for grasping the situation during the excavation. Until present, the measurement system restricted by ‘Absolute Value Management system’only analyzing the stability of present step was executed. So, it was difficult situation to expect the prediction of ground movement for the next excavation step. In this situation, it was developed that ‘The Management system TOMAS-EXCAV’ consisted of ‘Absolute value management system’ analyzing the stability of present step and ‘Prediction management system’ expecting the ground movement of next excavation step and analyzing the stability of next excavation step by‘Back Analysis’. TOMAS-EXCAV could be applied to all uncertainty of earth retaining structures analysis by connecting ‘Forward analysis program’ and ‘Back analysis program’ and optimizing the main design variables using SQP-MMFD optimization method through measurement results. The application of TOMAS-EXCAV was confirmed that verifed the three earth retaing construction field by back analysis.

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A predictive model for compressive strength of waste LCD glass concrete by nonlinear-multivariate regression

  • Wang, C.C.;Chen, T.T.;Wang, H.Y.;Huang, Chi
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.531-545
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this paper is to develop a prediction model for the compressive strength of waste LCD glass applied in concrete by analyzing a series of laboratory test results, which were obtained in our previous study. The hyperbolic function was used to perform the nonlinear-multivariate regression analysis of the compressive strength prediction model with the following parameters: water-binder ratio w/b, curing age t, and waste glass content G. According to the relative regression analysis, the compressive strength prediction model is developed. The calculated results are in accord with the laboratory measured data, which are the concrete compressive strengths of different mix proportions. In addition, a coefficient of determination $R^2$ value between 0.93 and 0.96 and a mean absolute percentage error MAPE between 5.4% and 8.4% were obtained by regression analysis using the predicted compressive analysis value, and the test results are also excellent. Therefore, the predicted results for compressive strength are highly accurate for waste LCD glass applied in concrete. Additionally, this predicted model exhibits a good predictive capacity when employed to calculate the compressive strength of washed glass sand concrete.

Application of black box model for height prediction of the fractured zone in coal mining

  • Zhang, Shichuan;Li, Yangyang;Xu, Cuicui
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.997-1010
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    • 2017
  • The black box model is a relatively new option for nonlinear dynamic system identification. It can be used for prediction problems just based on analyzing the input and output data without considering the changes of the internal structure. In this paper, a black box model was presented to solve unconstrained overlying strata movement problems in coal mine production. Based on the black box theory, the overlying strata regional system was viewed as a "black box", and the black box model on overburden strata movement was established. Then, the rock mechanical properties and the mining thickness and mined-out section area were selected as the subject and object respectively, and the influences of coal mining on the overburden regional system were discussed. Finally, a corrected method for height prediction of the fractured zone was obtained. According to actual mine geological conditions, the measured geological data were introduced into the black box model of overlying strata movement for height calculation, and the fractured zone height was determined as 40.36 m, which was comparable to the actual height value (43.91 m) of the fractured zone detected by Double-block Leak Hunting in Drill. By comparing the calculation result and actual surface subsidence value, it can be concluded that the proposed model is adaptable for height prediction of the fractured zone.

Diagnostics of Observation Error of Satellite Radiance Data in Korean Integrated Model (KIM) Data Assimilation System (한국형수치예보모델 자료동화에서 위성 복사자료 관측오차 진단 및 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Hyeyoung;Kang, Jeon-Ho;Kwon, In-Hyuk
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.263-276
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    • 2022
  • The observation error of satellite radiation data that assimilated into the Korean Integrated Model (KIM) was diagnosed by applying the Hollingsworth and Lönnberg and Desrozier techniques commonly used. The magnitude and correlation of the observation error, and the degree of contribution for the satellite radiance data were calculated. The observation errors of the similar device, such as Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A shows different characteristics. The model resolution accounts for only 1% of the observation error, and seasonal variation is not significant factor, either. The observation error used in the KIM is amplified by 3-8 times compared to the diagnosed value or standard deviation of first-guess departures. The new inflation value was calculated based on the correlation between channels and the ratio of background error and observation error. As a result of performing the model sensitivity evaluation by applying the newly inflated observation error of ATMS, the error of temperature and water vapor analysis field were decreased. And temperature and water vapor forecast field have been significantly improved, so the accuracy of precipitation prediction has also been increased by 1.7% on average in Asia especially.

A Prediction of Turbulent Characteristics in a Complex Terrain by Linear Theory (선형이론에 의한 복잡지형 내 난류 특성의 예측)

  • Yoon, J.E.;Kyong, N.H.;Kim, S.W.
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2005
  • The external conditions for estimating dynamic wind loads of wind turbines, such as the turbulence, the extreme wind, the mean velocity gradients and the flow angles, are simulated over GangWon Wind Energy Test Field placed in one of the most complex terrain in Korea. Reference meteorological data has been gathered at a height of 30m from 2003 to 2004 with a ultrasonic anemometer. The absolute value of the spectral energy are simulated and the verification of this prediction has been carried out with comparing to the experimental data. The most desirable place for constructing new wind turbine are resulted as Point 2 and Point 3 due to the lower value of Turbulence Intensity and the higher value of wind resource relatively.

Prediction of Chlorine Residual in Water Distribution System (상수관망내 잔류염소농도 분포 예측)

  • Joo, Dae-Sung;Park, No-Suk;Park, Heek-Yung;Oh, Jung-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.118-124
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    • 1998
  • To use chlorine residual as an surrogate parameter of the water quality change during the transportation in the water distribution system(WDS), the correct prediction model of chlorine residual must be established in advance. This paper shows the procedure and the result of applying the water quality model to the field WDS. To begin with, hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using fluoride as an tracer. And chlorine residual was predicted through simulation of water quality model. This predicted value was compared with the observed value. With adjusting the bulk decay coefficient(kb) and the wall decay coefficient(kw) according to the pipewall environment, the predicted chlorine residual can represent the observed value relatively well.

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A Selective Induction Framework for Improving Prediction in Financial Markets

  • Kim, Sung Kun
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2015
  • Financial markets are characterized by large numbers of complex and interacting factors which are ill-understood and frequently difficult to measure. Mathematical models developed in finance are precise formulations of theories of how these factors interact to produce the market value of financial asset. While these models are quite good at predicting these market values, because these forces and their interactions are not precisely understood, the model value nevertheless deviates to some extent from the observable market value. In this paper we propose a framework for augmenting the predictive capabilities of mathematical model with a learning component which is primed with an initial set of historical data and then adjusts its behavior after the event of prediction.

Analysis of Excitation Forces for the Prediction of the Vehicle Interior Noise by the Powertrain (Powertrain에 의한 차량실내소음 예측을 위한 엔진 가진력 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Joo-Hyung;Kim, Sung-Jong;Kim, Tae-Yong;Lee, Sang-Kwon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.16 no.12 s.117
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    • pp.1244-1251
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    • 2006
  • The objective of this paper is to get excitation forces of the engine at each of the brackets for the prediction of the vehicle interior noise by the powertrain. A powertrain geometry model is produced by CATIA and its FE model is made by MSC/Patran. A vibration mode analysis and a running mode analysis are experimentally implemented. After getting a satisfied MAC value by doing a correlation about a measured mode analysis value and analyzed value through MSC/Nastran software, all components are assembled through MSC/ADAMS software which is a dynamic analysis tool. We can predict the vibration of brackets which is the last points to occur the force of the engine combustion by analyzing the combustion force produced by engine mechanism.

Effect of Measuring Period on Predicting the Annual Heating Energy Consumption for Building (연간 건물난방 에너지사용량의 예측에 미치는 측정기간의 영향)

  • 조성환;태춘섭;김진호;방기영
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.287-293
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    • 2003
  • This study examined the temperature-dependent regression model of energy consumption based on various measuring period. The methodology employed was to construct temperature-dependent linear regression model of daily energy consumption from one day to three months data-sets and to compare the annual heating energy consumption predicted by these models with actual annual heating energy consumption. Heating energy consumption from a building in Daejon was examined experimentally. From the results, predicted value based on one day experimental data can have error over 100%. But predicted value based on one week experimental data showed error over 30%. And predicted value based on over three months experimental data provides accurate prediction within 6% but it will be required very expensive.

A Predication of Failure in the Stamping Line by Using the Plane Strain Stretch Test (평면 변형 장출 시헙법(PSST)을 이용한 프레스라인에서의 성형 불량 예측)

  • 한수식;박기철;진조관
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Technology of Plasticity Conference
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    • 1997.03a
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    • pp.15-18
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    • 1997
  • The plane strain stretch test (PSST) developed by POSCO as an activity of customer service was applied to the establishment of the formability criteria and the prediction of failure during the stamping processes. The PSST was applied to the actual parts such as oil pan and shock mount and the criteria of PSST value for each forming parts were established. These value can provide the possibility of prediction of failure before the stamping process. These results show that the PSST can precisely predict the stamping formability of steel sheets.

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