• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.82-98
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• 1987

The urban population in Asia more than doubled between 1960 and 1985, growing by 3.0 percent per annum on average. Yet during that period, the proportion of the total population living in urban areas increased only from 21 to 27 percent. This seeming paradox is explained by the relatively high rates of rural population growth in Asia, which averaged 1.8 percent over the same period. The Republic of Korea has experienced the most rapid rate of urbanization in Asia during the past century. The proportion urban jumped from 28 percent in 1960 to 65 percent in 1985. There is a clear association between economic growth and the pace of urbanization in Asia. Currently natural increase accounts for about 60 percent of urban growth, but the speed of urbanization is projected to increase after 1990, and migration, reclassification and annexation will comprise about half of urban growth, Seoul is currently the fourth largest urban agglomeration in Asia, and its population is projected to be over 13 million by the end of the century. It is argued that policies to deconcentrate urban population will not be generally successful in Asia and that governments should attempt to manage the growth of large metropolitan areas more efficiently.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.77-96
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• 2010

Since the mid-1990s, Korea has recorded low population growth rate. Based on the figures provided by the Statistical Korea, Korea may be even confronted with decreasing trends in the total population at the end of 2010s. In addition, Korea may experience the hyper-aged society in the mid-2020s. In the depopulation era, we have to devise alternative urban management policies reflecting low and reversed trends in the urban population. It is almost certain that urban policy-makers have to deal with a new series of urban problems, even jeopardizing the continuity of urban territories. In order to minimize the negative impact derived from depopulated phenomena, they have to develop sound and sustainable urban policy alternatives. This research adopts system dynamics approaches, revealing key factors exerting significant impact on the existing urban management policies. In specific, it pays attention to major causal loops, reinforcing or balancing behavioral.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.5-27
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• 2002

This paper evaluate and compare effectiveness of urban growth management measures in Korea using system dynamics model. Simple urban dynamics model was used to compare urban growth management measures. Since the late 1960s, Korean government has been implementing various urban growth management measures without much success. In the 1960s, factories, universities, and public agencies were strongly encouraged to move out to local areas. During the 1970s, regulations on greenbelt area was adopted to prevent urban sprawl. Besides, regulations to prevent location of population inducing facilities, and promoting dislocation of those facilities were implemented simultaneously. During the 1990, regulations on total number of factories in the metropolitan area, development fees were adopted. These various method of urban management were compared. Simulation results shows that promoting decentralization of population, preventing population immigration, expanding greenbelt area are effectiveness ones compared to controlling total number of population inducing facilities, and preventing construction of new industries. Some implications of the findings were discussed.

• Journal of KIBIM
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.22-31
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• 2019

In this paper, we construct a prototype model for city data prediction by using time series data of floating population, and use machine learning to analyze urban data of complex structure. A correlation prediction model was constructed using three of the 10 data (total flow population, male flow population, and Monday flow population), and the result was compared with the actual data. The results of the accuracy were evaluated. The results of this study show that the predicted model of the floating population predicts the correlation between the predicted floating population and the current state of commerce. It is expected that it will help efficient and objective design in the planning stages of architecture, landscape, and urban areas such as tree environment design and layout of trails. Also, it is expected that the dynamic population prediction using multivariate time series data and collected location data will be able to perform integrated simulation with time series data of various fields.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.173-187
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• 2023

In an era of population decline, depopulated regions facing challenges in attracting inbound population migration must enhance urban vitality through the attraction of living populations. This study focuses on Busan, a city experiencing population decline, comparing the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of registered residents and living populations in various administrative districts (Eup-Myeon-Dong) using mobile communication big data. Administrative districts are typified based on population change patterns, and regional characteristics are analyzed using indicators related to urban decline and vitality. Spatiotemporal distribution analysis reveals generally similar density patterns between registered residents and living populations; however, a distinctive feature is observed in the city center areas where the density of registered residents is low, while the density of living populations is high. Divergent trends in spatial patterns of change between registered residents and living populations show clusters of registered population decline in low-density areas and clusters of living population decline in high-density areas. Areas adjacent to declining living populations exhibit large clusters of population changes, indicating a spillover effect from high-density to neighboring areas. Typification results reveal that, even in areas with a decline in registered residents, there is active population influx due to commuting or visiting. These areas sustain an increase in the number of businesses, confirming the presence of industrial and economic growth. However, approximately 47% of administrative districts in Busan are experiencing a decline in both registered residents and living populations, indicating ongoing regional decline. Urgent measures are needed for enhancing urban vitality. The study emphasizes the necessity of utilizing living population data as an urban planning indicator, considering the increasing limit distance of urban activities and growing interregional interaction due to advancements in transportation and communication.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.685-686
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• 2015

The world is currently undergoing an intense urbanization process. The percentage of urban dwellers has never been so high. In 2010, and for the first time, urban population surpassed the rural one, accounting for 51% of global population, and this trend will continue in the forthcoming years. This increment in concentration of population and supporting assets in cities, make their performance a critical issue for world population. Recent events such as Fukushima tsunami and the hurricane Katrina have shown how fragile built environments are and the unpredictability of occurrence and magnitude of the hazards. Such an expansion of the world's urban population, together with an increase in severity and number of hazards and catastrophes, has put under the spotlight the necessity to build cities not only sustainable, but resilient. Decision makers should acknowledge failure as an option, and the importance of developing city resilience. This paper will provide an initial review on urban resilience, definitions and assessment approaches as a first step for decision makers to account for resilience in their decision making process.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.120-131
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• 2009

This study measured the centripetal force and effective scope of the population spread from urban center and subcenters in order to diagnose the urban spatial structure of the formation of a multicentric city structure in Busan. The study analyzed the variability of the determination coefficient value (R square) with a negative exponential function derived from the population density model by extending the circular region into 5-km units. The aim of this study was to measure changes in the effective scope of the population centripetal force of the urban center and subcenter in 5-year intervals from 1995 to 2005 using census data. The explanatory adequacy of the population density function was examined with the bias of the function to calculate the distance error between the real location of the urban center and the optimal location, according to the population density function. To summarize the results, the value for the area of Jungangdong showed a continuous reduction, whereas Seomyeon (Bujeondong) maintained explanatory adequacy without a large change. As a whole, Busan was in the process of continuous diversification, in spite of its reduced population. Therefore, it appears necessary to strengthen the function of the urban center and subcenter and to supply adequate dwelling zones close to downtown to form a more efficient urban spatial structure. The results of the present study will be utilized as basic data for the formulation of a political approach to the efficient reorganization of spatial structure by correlating concrete spatial information with the population variability of Busan's urban center and subcenter.

• Journal of the Korean housing association
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.11-22
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• 2010

In the urban area where rapid suburbanization trend continues, the role of mixed use building is controversial. It is argued that the mixed use building is an effective tool to recover residential function of urban core(urban regeneration). It is also argued that the building is a cause of serious urban problems, such as congestion, public service shortages. The fundamental purpose of this study is to examine the role of mixed use building in terms of urban growth management in Seoul. For this purpose, data of mixed use building from 1981 to 2007 are collected and analysed. The results show that most of mixed use buildings are located in either sub-centers or population losing areas, rather than traditional urban core. Therefore, it is hard to accept that the two controversial arguments. The mixed use building noncore areas in most cases. However, it dose help to increase population inflow in non-core areas. it is difficult to accept the public service assertion which states that super-high rise mixed use building causes public service congestion, because the building is built in population losing or demand decreasing area. Based on these findings this study suggests some policy alternatives such as urban service boundary or concurrency program to management urban growth.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.71-94
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• 2003

The purpose of this dissertation is to build a development density control model and estimate optimum developmental density level for a sustainable urban growth management. To develop the model, system dynamics modeling approach was used. The model was developed to analyze how urban growth, transition, and decay occur depending on the interaction among population, houses, industry structure, land and urban infrastructure such as road, water supply, and sewage treatment facilities. The model was applied to Anyang city to estimate optimum density level. Extensive computer simulation was conducted to find out the maximum numbers of population, industry structure, houses, and cars that can be adequately sustained with the current Anyang city's infrastructure capacity. The computer simulation result shows that the city is overpopulated by some 90,000 people. It nab analyzed that 20％ increase of existing capacity of urban infrastructure is necessary to support current population of Anyang city. To reduce the population to the adequate level whereby the current urban infrastructure can sustain, the current city regulation on floor area ratio needs be strengthened at least 20％ to 35%.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.487-497
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• 2010

This paper estimates theoretically optimal sizes of urban population for major metropolitan areas using an urban economy system with utility maximizing household, profit maximizing producer and government providing public goods. This finds that the optimal size of urban population is determined by technological levels and public services. The population sizes of Seoul, Busan, Daegu and Incheon are higher than their optimal levels, while Gwangju, Daejeon and Ulsan need to increase the population for production efficiency.