• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty management

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Minimizing the Risk of an Open Computing Environment Using the MAD Portfolio Optimization (최적포트폴리오 기법을 이용한 개방형 전산 환경의 안정성 확보에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hak-Jin;Park, Ji-Hyoun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.15-31
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    • 2009
  • The next generation IT environment is expected to be an open computing environment based on Grid computing technologies, which allow users to access to any type of computing resources through networks. The open computing environment has benefits in aspects of resource utilization, collaboration, flexibility and cost reduction. Due to the variation in performance of open computing resources, however, resource allocation simply based on users' budget and time constraints often fails to meet the Service Level Agreement(SLA). This paper proposes the Mean-Absolute Deviation(MAD) portfolio optimization approach, in which service brokers consider the uncertainty of performance of resources, and compose resource portfolios that minimize the uncertainty. In order to investigate the effect of this approach, we simulate an open computing environment with varying uncertainty levels, users' constraints, and brokers' optimization strategies. The simulation result concludes threefolds. First, the MAD portfolio optimization improves the success ratio of delivering the required performance to users. Second, the success ratio depends on the accuracy in predicting the variability of performance. Thirdly, the measured variability can also help service brokers expand their service to cost-critical users by discounting the access cost of open computing resources.

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Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price Uncertainty on Industrial Stock Market -A Quantile Regression Approach - (분위수회귀분석을 이용한 유가 변동성에 대한 산업별 주식시장의 이질적 반응 분석)

  • Joo, Young-Chan;Park, Sung-Yong
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2019
  • This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of crude oil price uncertainty on industrial stock returns under different market conditions (bearish and bullish stock markets). We consider a quantile regression method using monthly oil volatility index, KOSPI and 22 industrial stock indices from May 2007 to February 2019. Especially, we take care of the positive and negative changes of the oil volatility index to analyze asymmetric effects of the oil price uncertainty for the bearish and bullish stock market conditions. During the bearish markets, the oil volatility index has relatively strong statistically significant negative effects on the industrial stock returns. These effects gradually decrease when the market conditions became more bullish markets. In particular, positive changes in the oil volatility index yields a further significant decrease in 12 industrial stock returns during the extreme bearish markets. Moreover, during the bullish markets, negative changes in the oil volatility index have statistically significant negative effects on the 12 industrial stock returns. From the empirical results, we see that participants of the Korean stock market are sensitive to bad news in a recession.

Influence of Communication on Acquired Company Members in the PMI Process : Moderation Effect of the Business Area Consistency between Acquiring and Acquired Company (PMI과정에서 피인수기업 구성원에 대한 의사소통의 영향력 : 인수기업과 피인수기업 간의 사업영역의 일치도의 조절효과)

  • Pan, Xie;Park, Chan-kyun
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.113-131
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    • 2023
  • Post-merger integration(PMI) plays a very important role in the success of M&A. Therefore, based on previous studies on PMI, this study discusses the relationship between communication of acquired enterprise members and uncertainty reduction, organizational satisfaction, organizational trust in the PMI process, focusing on the moderating effect of business area consistency between the acquisition and the acquired company. In order to achieve the purpose of this study, the hypothesis of the relationship between variables was established and an empirical analysis was conducted. In order to collect data, a survey was conducted on members of the acquired company in China, and 317 questionnaires were finally collected and used for empirical analysis. For the collected data, the research hypothesis was verified using SPSS 26.0. The results of the study confirmed that communication has a positive effect on the reduction of uncertainty, job satisfaction, and organizational trust perceived by members of the acquired company, and that the consistency in business areas between the acquisition and the acquired company weakens the relationship between communication and uncertainty. In the positive relationship between communication and job satisfaction, organizational trust, the effect of strengthening the moderating variable has not been confirmed, but rather the weakening control effect was found. Based on these findings, the strategy of communicating with the members of the acquired company in the PMI process is meaningful for the success or failure of the merger and provides theoretical and practical implications for proposing differentiated human resources management measures according to M&A type.

A Study on the Influencing Relationships of Transaction Risk and Purchase Value on Repurchase Intention for the Second-hand Products (거래위험과 구매가치가 중고제품 재구매 의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Han-Min Kim;Sang Cheol Park;Jong Uk Kim
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.193-218
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    • 2024
  • The current study investigated the factors influencing the buyer's repurchase intention for second-hand products. This study first identified perceived risk and purchase value as the two primary influencing variables. Additionally, some exogenous variables influencing these two variables were examined. Statistical analysis using Partial Least Squares (PLS) revealed that product uncertainty, seller uncertainty, and site trust had statistically significant relationships with perceived transaction risk. However, while economic benefit showed a significant impact on purchase value, product scarcity and resale value did not exhibit a significant relationship with purchase value. Perceived transaction risk was found to have an insignificant relationship with repurchase intention, but indirectly influenced repurchase intention through purchase value. Purchase value was identified as having a significant influence on repurchase intention. Therefore, it was concluded that purchase value is the most important factor influencing repurchase intention in the purchase of second-hand products, while transaction risk indirectly influences repurchase intention through purchase value. The study indicates that product uncertainty and economic benefit are the most significant exogenous factors influencing transaction risk and purchase value, respectively.

A Study on the Achievement Motive and the Creativity of the Employee (종업원들의 성취동기와 창의성에 관한 연구)

  • 김재붕
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.20 no.44
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    • pp.13-32
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    • 1997
  • The modem society has been talked as the age of uncertainty, the age discontinuity and the information society. The future society is forcasted the creativity society. Both the achievement motive and the creativity be suggested as an important factors to accomplish the individual goals and organizational performance. The achievement motive has the major implications in increasing the level of achievement motive between high and low creative group. The employee creativity is the emergence in action of a novel relational product, growing out of the uniqueness of the individual on the hand, and materals, events people or cirumstances of his life on the other. It has been treated as an impotant factor to solve the complex management ploblems for the management. The major purpose of this study are (1) to review the theory of an achievement motivation and the creativity, (2) to provide both management and scholars with the practical and useful implications on the development of the employee cretivity in improving the management performance.

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A Study on the Review of Risk Concepts (리스크의 개념에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Jin Hyun;Park, Dal Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.90-96
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    • 2013
  • Since the last 50 years, the terminology 'risk' has been widely used in general and industrial applications, with different meanings. The different definitions of risk can lead to the different risk assessments and risk management process elements, and the misunderstandings. For the reasons, the ISO(International Standard Organization) has recently defined a new risk concept through the publication of IS0 31000:2009. Although the new concept of risk was globally accepted, it seem to be argued in its definition debate. Thus, this paper reviews the definition and meaning of the concept of risk in terms of risk origin, general and industrial applications, related domestic laws and risk management standards published to improve an understanding of risk concept.

An Effective Management of Construction Insurance (건설공사보험의 효율적 관리방법)

  • Yang Jin-Kook;Kim Soo-Yong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.319-324
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    • 2003
  • There is much more possibilities of encounter of critical problems and uncertain factors in construction project it is very important to analyze various risk factors of the project in its first stage. Because of the uncertainty, we need to study about the construction insurance scheme for risk-transfer within construction management method. This research methodology has been devised through analysis of characteristic of classified domestic construction insurance as well as some related foreign insurance system.

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Stochastic Programming for the Optimization of Transportation-Inventory Strategy

  • Deyi, Mou;Xiaoqian, Zhang
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.44-51
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    • 2017
  • In today's competitive environment, supply chain management is a major concern for a company. Two of the key issues in supply chain management are transportation and inventory management. To achieve significant savings, companies should integrate these two issues instead of treating them separately. In this paper we develop a framework for modeling stochastic programming in a supply chain that is subject to demand uncertainty. With reasonable assumptions, two stochastic programming models are presented, respectively, including a single-period and a multi-period situations. Our assumptions allow us to capture the stochastic nature of the problem and translate it into a deterministic model. And then, based on the genetic algorithm and stochastic simulation, a solution method is developed to solve the model. Finally, the computational results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of our model and algorithm.

A Study on the Risk Management in International Transaction of Digital Goods (디지털물(物) 국제법래(國際去來)의 리스크관리방안(管理方案)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Ahn, Byung-Soo
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.29
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    • pp.143-172
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    • 2006
  • This study focuses on the risk management of "Digital Goods" appeared with the progress of information technology(IT) in international transaction. As a result of that digital goods have a lot of uncertainty between the general goods or service which have been deal with object of international transaction broadly because digital goods hold uniqueness. In this study, the author give a definition of "Digital Goods" and make an examination of uniqueness of that in international transaction. Next, six risks are defined base on risk theory and risk analysis matrix applying risk mapping model is made. Conclusionally, risk transfer as insurance is adequate to manage business risk, security risk, credit risk and legal risk. Meanwhile, risk avoidance is adequate to manage reputation risk and market risk. But, this study have following three limits. Firstly, concerning definition of the risk, real case is not applied owing to lack of transaction data. Secondly, measuring of the risk is not based on absolute data but relative data. Lastly, suggesting way of risk management is not concrete and practical to international trader of digital goods.

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New method for dependence assessment in human reliability analysis based on linguistic hesitant fuzzy information

  • Zhang, Ling;Zhu, Yu-Jie;Hou, Lin-Xiu;Liu, Hu-Chen
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.11
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    • pp.3675-3684
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    • 2021
  • Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a proactive approach to model and evaluate human systematic errors, and has been extensively applied in various complicated systems. Dependence assessment among human errors plays a key role in the HRA, which relies heavily on the knowledge and experience of experts in real-world cases. Moreover, there are ofthen different types of uncertainty when experts use linguistic labels to evaluate the dependencies between human failure events. In this context, this paper aims to develop a new method based on linguistic hesitant fuzzy sets and the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) technique to manage the dependence in HRA. This method handles the linguistic assessments given by experts according to the linguistic hesitant fuzzy sets, determines the weights of influential factors by an extended best-worst method, and confirms the degree of dependence between successive actions based on the THERP method. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the presented linguistic hesitant fuzzy THERP method are demonstrated through an empirical healthcare dependence analysis.