• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty management

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The Research Analysis of Optimal Capacity Decision (최적 생산용량결정에 대한 연구 분석)

  • Jang, Il-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.431-434
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    • 2006
  • Due to rapid technology shifts and demand uncertainty, there is a high risk that inventoried products will become obsolete. Consequently companies have to decide capacities considering product life cycle and demand variation. In this paper, 1 will analyze previous research, and then provide taxonomy of them and propose further research directions.

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The Effect of PL Leadership and Characteristics of Project on Project Participants' Satisfaction and Performance (PL 리더십 성향과 프로젝트 특성요인이 프로젝트 참여 만족 및 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Yang, Hee-Dong;Kim, Myung-Jin;Kang, So-Ra
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.53-79
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    • 2010
  • The study was originated from recognition that project participants' satisfaction should be Improved to raise project performance and to make progress of a successful project since the above dissatisfaction was operated as a danger factor of the project. The study selected one large-scale sample project and attempted measuring characteristics of the project, participants' satisfaction and project performance with the whole project participants. The study analyzed correlations between individual level (team members) and group level (development team), and examined what effect a sub project manager under complicated hierarchical organization of the large-scale project, namely PL (project leader)'s leadership style had on each individual project participant's satisfaction and what effect project uncertainty in organization/technology environment had on project participants' satisfaction and project performance. The study verified that development team (group) had an effect on team member (individual)-level project participants' satisfaction by disclosing that there was a significant dispersion among groups within project participants' satisfaction by each individual. It is analyzed that it is necessary to make improvement through approach by each pertinent team to raise individual-level project participants' satisfaction. The study also verified PL's ideal leadership under strict methodology and hierarchical control of the large-scale project. Based on the verification of the hypotheses, the results of the analysis were produced as follows. First, the development team affects the satisfaction level that an individual has when he/she participates in a project. This suggests that the satisfaction with project participation should be improved at the team level. In addition, the project management style and leadership orientation of the manager of a sub project who is mostly affected by the team proved to have a direct influence on the satisfaction with project participation and project performances. Second, both the performance-oriented leadership and the relationship-oriented leadership of the PL of the development team were verified to have a significant effect on the satisfaction of the team members associated with project participation. In other words, when the team members recognize that the PL of the development team shows both the performance-oriented leadership and the relationship-oriented leadership, their satisfaction with project participation increases accordingly. Third, it was verified that the uncertainty of the organizational environment significantly affects the satisfaction level when the PL of the development team exerts a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership. The higher the uncertainty of the organizational environment is, the more the satisfaction with project participation decreases whereas the relationship-oriented leadership has a more positive effect on the satisfaction than the performance-oriented leadership style. Fourth, when the PL of the development team exerts the relationship-related and performance-related leadership, the uncertainty of the technological environment has a significant influence on the satisfaction level. The higher the uncertainty of the technological environment is, the more the satisfaction with project participation decreases whereas the performance-oriented leadership has a more positive effect on the satisfaction than the relationship-oriented leadership style. The result of the research on the uncertainty of the project environment suggests that when the development team leader exerts a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership style, the uncertainty of the organizational environment has a significant effect on the satisfaction with project participation; the higher the uncertainty of the organizational environment, the more the satisfaction level decreases, and the relationship-oriented leadership style affects the satisfaction level more positively than the performance-oriented leadership style. In addition, when the development team leader displays a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership style, the uncertainty of the technological environment has a significant effect on the satisfaction with project participation; the higher the uncertainty of the technological environment. the more the satisfaction level decreases. The performance-oriented leadership style as well affects the satisfaction level more positively than the relationship-oriented leadership style. Based on the above results, the research provides the following implications when handling multiple concurrent projects. First, the satisfaction with the participation in the multiple concurrent projects needs to be enhanced at the team (group) level. Second. the manager of the project team, particularly the middle managers should have both a performance-oriented and relationship (task and human)-oriented attitude and exert a consolidated leadership in order to improve the satisfaction of team members with project participation and their performances. Third, as the uncertainty factor of the technological and organizational environment among the characteristics factors of the project has room for methodological improvement depending on one's effort even though there are some complications, we need to continuously prevent and control the risks resulting from the uncertainties of the technological and organizational environment of the project in order to enhance the satisfaction of project participation and project performances. Fourth, the performance (task)-oriented leadership is required when there is uncertainty in a technological environment while the relationship (human)-oriented leadership is required when there is uncertainty in an organizational environment. This research has the following limitations. First, this research intended to select one large-sized sample project and measure the project characteristics, the satisfaction of all the participants associated with project participation, and their performances. Therefore, it is inappropriate to generalize and apply the result of this result onto other numerous projects. Second, as this case study entailed a survey to measure the characteristics factors and performance of the project, since the result value was based on the perception of project team members, the data may have insufficient objectivity. Third, though this research targeted on all the project participants, some development teams did not provide sufficient data and questionnaires were collected from some specific development teams among the 23 development teams, causing a significant deviation in the response rate among the development teams. Therefore, we need to continuously conduct the follow-up researches making comparisons among the multiple projects, and centering on the characteristics factors of the project and its satisfaction level.

Fixed Charge Transportation Problem and Its Uncertain Programming Model

  • Sheng, Yuhong;Yao, Kai
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.183-187
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we study the fixed charge transportation problem with uncertain variables. The fixed charge transportation problem has two kinds of costs: direct cost and fixed charge. The direct cost is the cost associated with each source-destination pair, and the fixed charge occurs when the transportation activity takes place in the corresponding source-destination pair. The uncertain fixed charge transportation problem is modeled on the basis of uncertainty theory. According to inverse uncertainty distribution, the model can be transformed into a deterministic form. Finally, in order to solve the uncertain fixed charge transportation problem, a numerical example is given to show the application of the model and algorithm.

Comonotonic Uncertain Vector and Its Properties

  • Li, Shengguo;Zhang, Bo;Peng, Jin
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.16-22
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    • 2013
  • This paper proposes a new concept of comonotonicity of uncertain vector based on the uncertainty theory. In order to understand the comonotonicity of uncertain vector, some equivalent definitions are presented. Following the proposed concept, some basic properties of comonotonic uncertain vector are investigated. In addition, the operational law is given for calculating the uncertainty distributions of monotone functions of comonotonic uncertain variables. With the help of operational law, the comonotonic uncertain vector is applied to the premium pricing problems. At last, some numerical examples are given to illustrate the application.

Uncertain Programming Model for Chinese Postman Problem with Uncertain Weights

  • Zhang, Bo;Peng, Jin
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.18-25
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    • 2012
  • IChinese postman problem is one of the classical combinatorial optimization problems with many applications. However, in application, some uncertain factors are frequently encountered. This paper employs uncertain programming to deal with Chinese postman problem with uncertain weight Within the framework of uncertainty theory, the concepts of expected shortest route, ${\alpha}$-shortest route, and distribution shortest route are proposed. After that, expected shortest model, and ${\alpha}$-shortest model are constructed. Taking advantage of properties of uncertainty theory, these models can be transf-ormed into their corresponding deterministic forms, which can be solved by classical algorithm..

The Effect of Safety Environment of Small and Medium-sized Logistics Companies on Safety Behavior (중소 물류기업의 안전 환경이 안전 행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sunghee;Park, Jinsoo
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.135-146
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    • 2022
  • A safe working environment is an important and crucial factor in the operation of a firm, and is also essential for logistics companies in supply chain management. This study confirmed that the safety climate and safety prevention activities have a positive relationship with safety behavior from the perspective of domestic small and medium-sized logistics companies that continue their business relationships by signing contracts with large logistics companies. In addition, the moderating role of regulatory uncertainty and competition uncertainty in the previous positive relationship was empirically examined.

How Innovative is a Firm in a Structural Hole Position?

  • Minjung KIM
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: Marketing networks are essential for firms to gain new information and resources, yet their effect on innovation performance under uncertainty remains unclear. This study aims to elucidate the effects of technological and demand variability on the innovation performance of first-tier suppliers, considering different levels of structural holes. It particularly explores how structural holes moderate the relationship between uncertain factors and innovation performance. Research design, data and methodology: To assess the hypotheses, a survey was conducted with the first-tier suppliers. The survey targeted internal networks and the relationships between manufacturers, suppliers, and subsuppliers. Structural equation modeling was employed to validate the hypotheses using measures from previous research. Results: The findings indicate that the impact of technological uncertainty and demand variability on innovation performance varies based on the extent of structural holes in the network. Conclusions: This study provides both theoretical and practical insights for distribution channels, highlighting the competitive advantage of interfirm networks in uncertain conditions. However, the focus on the engineering industry may limit the generalizability of the findings. Future research should explore a broader range of industries to improve result applicability.

Evaluation of Geostatistical Approaches for better Estimation of Polluted Soil Volume with Uncertainty Evaluation (지구통계 기법을 활용한 토양 오염범위 산정 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Kim, Ho-Rim;Kim, Kyoung-Ho;Yun, Seong-Taek;Hwang, Sang-Il;Kim, Hyeong-Don;Lee, Gun-Taek;Kim, Young-Ju
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.69-81
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    • 2012
  • Diverse geostatistical tools such as kriging have been used to estimate the volume and spatial coverage of contaminated soil needed for remediation. However, many approaches frequently yield estimation errors, due to inherent geostatistical uncertainties. Such errors may yield over- or under-estimation of the amounts of polluted soils, which cause an over-estimation of remediation cost as well as an incomplete clean-up of a contaminated land. Therefore, it is very important to use a better estimation tool considering uncertainties arising from incomplete field investigation (i.e., contamination survey) and mathematical spatial estimation. In the current work, as better estimation tools we propose stochastic simulation approaches which allow the remediation volume to be assessed more accurately along with uncertainty estimation. To test the efficiency of proposed methods, heavy metals (esp., Pb) contaminated soil of a shooting range area was selected. In addition, we suggest a quantitative method to delineate the confident interval of estimated volume (and spatial extent) of polluted soil based on the spatial aspect of uncertainty. The methods proposed in this work can improve a better decision making on soil remediation.

A Fuzzy-based Risk Assessment using Uncertainty Model (불확실성 모델을 사용한 퍼지 위험도분석)

  • Choi Hyun-Ho;Seo Jong-Won;Jung Pyung-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.473-476
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents a systematic risk assessment procedure with uncertainty modeling for general construction projects. Since the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the assumed probability with conditional probability concept that systematically incorporate expert's experiences and subjective judgement, the proposed methods with uncertainty modeling is able to apply to all the construction projects inherent in lots of uncertain risk events. The fuzzy set theory is adopted to enhance risk assessment to effectively handle the vague and dynamic phenomenon of an event Therefore, the fuzzy-based risk assessment is very useful, for those countries, such as Korea, where objective probabilistic data for risk assessment is extremely rare, and thus the utilization of subjective judgmental data based on expert's experiences is inevitable.

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Performance tests and uncertainty analysis of tipping bucket rain gauge (전도형 강수량계의 성능시험 및 불확도 분석)

  • Hong, Sung-taek;Park, Byung-don;Shin, Gang-wook;Jung, Hoe-kyung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.595-597
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    • 2018
  • Precipitation has a wide range of applications, such as the management and operation of dams and rivers, supply of dranking water for urban and industrial complex, farming and fishing, forest greening, and safety management. In order to prepare for disasters and to obtain economical effects in case of flood damage, it is necessary to measure accurate precipitation. In this study, we carried out the characteristics tests for various types of rainfall gauge using integrated verification system, which can analyze the performance of collective type rainfall gauge. The uncertainty for tipping bucket rain gauge was 0.2887 mm. Therefore, it can be seen that the uncertainty is calculated differently depending on the characteristics of the rainfall gauges. The uncertainty is also influenced greatly by the resolution.

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