• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty management

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Identification and importance analysis of hazards affecting the stability of TBM tunnelling works (TBM 터널 굴착 안정성에 영향을 미치는 위험요소 도출 및 중요도 결정)

  • Seong, Joo-Hyun;Youn, Jun-Ung
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.973-984
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    • 2017
  • There is a growing need to apply TBM tunnelling method for the construction of underground facilities such as subways and utility tunnels in urban areas. Due to the variability and uncertainty of the ground, tunnelling in urban areas has various safety hazards which could cause damage to people and properties and it is very costly to recover from accidents. Therefore, it is very important to identify hazards from the planning and design phase and to establish risk mitigation measures. In this study, a total of 31 hazards affecting the stability of TBM tunnelling works in urban areas were listed from both the technical literature and correspondence with experts in tunnelling area. The importance and priorities of the hazards were analyzed by conducting Delphi technique, which is a decision-making method by consensus among experts. Finally, 12 hazards that satisfy the content validity criteria were settled and could be used as major control factors for accident prevention during TBM tunnelling works.

An Empirical Study on the Factors Influencing the Innovations of Korea's Exporting Companies and Export Performance (한국 수출기업의 혁신활동에 따른 영향요인과 수출성과에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Gwi-Ok
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.201-225
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    • 2012
  • Developing new technologies and launching new products require a huge sum of money for Research and Development, and there is also market uncertainty. Comparing to advanced countries' companies, Korea's exporting companies have less investment cost in size for R&D and insufficient technology assets accumulated. Therefore, through the open innovation, they should use external technology and enhance the efficiency of the relatively little R&D investment. This paper draws the factors influencing the innovations of Korea's exporting companies, and then it analyses how each innovation influences export performance. First, innovations are devided into two; closed and open innovation. Multiple regression analysis has been done, considering influence factors of innovation such as company's characteristics factors, research's characteristics factors and products characteristics factors to be independent variables, and export performance to be a dependent variable. It shows that firm size and new products launching period have positive effects on each innovation, but research capability and research performance have positive effects only on closed innovation. And open innovation has positive effects on export performance, but closed innovation doesn't have.

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Decision Analysis System for Job Guidance using Rough Set (러프집합을 통한 취업의사결정 분석시스템)

  • Lee, Heui-Tae;Park, In-Kyoo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.387-394
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    • 2013
  • Data mining is the process of discovering hidden, non-trivial patterns in large amounts of data records in order to be used very effectively for analysis and forecasting. Because hundreds of variables give rise to a high level of redundancy and dimensionality with time complexity, they are more likely to have spurious relationships, and even the weakest relationships will be highly significant by any statistical test. Hence cluster analysis is a main task of data mining and is the task of grouping a set of objects in such a way that objects in the same group are more similar to each other than to those in other groups. In this paper system implementation is of great significance, which defines a new definition based on information-theoretic entropy and analyse the analogue behaviors of objects at hand so as to address the measurement of uncertainties in the classification of categorical data. The sources were taken from a survey aimed to identify of job guidance from students in high school pyeongtaek. we show how variable precision information-entropy based rough set can be used to group student in each section. It is proved that the proposed method has the more exact classification than the conventional in attributes more than 10 and that is more effective in job guidance for students.

Status of Observation Data at Ieodo Ocean Research Station for Sea Level Study

  • Han, MyeongHee
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.323-343
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    • 2020
  • Observation data measured at Ieodo Ocean Research Station (IORS) have been utilized in oceanographic and atmospheric studies since 2003. Sea level data observed at the IORS have not been paid attention as compared with many other variables such as aerosol, radiation, turbulent flux, wind, wave, fog, temperature, and salinity. Total sea level rises at the IORS (5.6 mm yr-1) from both satellite and tide-gauge observations were higher than those in the northeast Asian marginal seas (5.4 mm yr-1) and the world (4.6 mm yr-1) from satellite observation from 2009 to 2018. The rates of thermosteric, halosteric, and steric sea level rises were 2.7-4.8, -0.7-2.6, 2.3-7.4 mm yr-1 from four different calculating methods using observations. The rising rate of the steric sea level was higher than that of the total sea level in the case with additional data quality control. Calculating the non-steric sea level was not found to yield meaningful results, despite the ability to calculate non-steric sea level by simply subtracting the steric sea level from total sea level. This uncertainty did not arise from the data analysis but from a lack of good data, even though tide, temperature, and salinity data were quality controlled two times by Korea Hydrographic and Oceanography Agency. The status of the IORS data suggests that the maintenance management of observation systems, equipment, and data quality control should be improved to facilitate data use from the IORS.

Trust Building Level and Linkage's Spatial Characteristics on Logistics & Storage Industry in the City of Busan (부산시 물류창고업의 신뢰형성 수준과 연계의 공간적 특성)

  • Sung, Sin-Je;Lee, Hee-Yul
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.454-476
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine relation between trust building level and linkages's spatial characteristics on the logistics & storage industry of Busan. As a result, First, long-term & repeated interaction, information sharing & reciprocity, and interdependence & asset specificity have an important effect upon the micro trust which implies the highest trust. Proximity and uncertainty impact on the meso trust, the trust of middle level. Culture, norm, and formal institution of firms affect the macro trust, the lowest level of trust. Second, the micro, the meso, and the macro trusts mainly form in the local scale where spatial proximity is great. The higher the trust building levels become, the more spatial dimensions by linkage expand to national and international dimension, respectively. Third, these results appear more clearly in the output linkage than input linkage, in the service areas-many firm, in the horizontal linkage than vertical linkage, in the advanced evolution phases of firm connection, and in the supply chain management than outsourcing.

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A Study on the 'Extended' DSM Programs in Korean LNG Market (산업용 천연가스 수요관리 프로그램 최적화를 위한 동태적 시뮬레이션에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Han-Soo;Choi, Ki-Ryun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.211-231
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    • 2002
  • This paper summarizes the results of a study that assess how a demand side management (DSM) system addresses key economic and environmental challenges facing in the Korean natural gas sector considering; ${\bullet}$ high discrepancies of seasonal consumption volume and of load factor in unmatured domestic LNG market, ${\bullet}$ unfavorable and volatile international LNG market, imposing with the contestable "take-or-pay" contract terms, ${\bullet}$ low profile of LNG and existence of market barriers against an optimal fuel mix status in the industrial energy sector. A particular focus of this study is to establish an 'extended' DSM system in the unmatured gas market, especially in industry sector, that could play a key role to assure an optimum fuel mix scheme. Under the concept of 'extended' DSM, a system dynamics modeling approach has been introduced to explore the option to maximize economic benefits in terms of the national energy system optimization, entailing different ways of commitments accounting for different DSM measures and time delay scenarios. The study concludes that policy options exist that can reduce inefficiencies in gas industry and end-use system at no net costs to national economy. The most scenarios find that, by the year 2015, it is possible to develop a substantial potential of increased industrial gas end-uses under more reliable and stable load patterns. Assessment of sensitivity analysis suggests that time delay factor, in formulating DSM scenarios, plays a key role to overcome various market barriers in domestic LNG market and provides a strong justification for the policy portfolios 'just in time' (time accurateness), which eventually contribute to establish an optimum fuel mix strategy. The study indicates also the needs of advanced studies based on SD approach to articulate uncertainty in unmatured energy market analysis, including gas.

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Species Distribution Modeling of Endangered Mammals for Ecosystem Services Valuation - Focused on National Ecosystem Survey Data - (생태계 서비스 가치평가를 위한 멸종위기 포유류의 종분포 연구 - 전국자연환경조사 자료를 중심으로 -)

  • Jeon, Seong Woo;Kim, Jaeuk;Jung, Huicheul;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Kim, Joon-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.111-122
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    • 2014
  • The provided habitat of many services from natural capital is important. But because most ecosystem services tools qualitatively evaluated biodiversity or habitat quality, this study quantitatively analyzed those aspects using the species distribution model (MaxEnt). This study used location point data of the goat(Naemorhedus caudatus), marten(Martes flavigula), leopard cat(Prionailurus bengalensis), flying squirrel(Pteromys volans aluco) and otter(Lutra lutra) from the 3rd National Ecosystem Survey. Input data utilized DEM, landcover classification maps, Forest-types map and digital topographic maps. This study generated the MaxEnt model, randomly setting 70% of the presences as training data, with the remaining 30% used as test data, and ran five cross-validated replicates for each model. The threshold indicating maximum training sensitivity plus specificity was considered as a more robust approach, so this study used it to conduct the distribution into presence(1)-absence(0) predictions and totalled up a value of 5 times for uncertainty reduction. The test data's ROC curve of endangered mammals was as follows: growing down goat(0.896), otter(0.857), flying squirrel(0.738), marten(0.725), and leopard cat(0.629). This study was divided into two groups based on habitat: the first group consisted of the goat, marten, leopard cat and flying squirrel in the forest; and the second group consisted of the otter in the river. More than 60 percent of endangered mammals' distribution probability were 56.9% in the forest and 12.7% in the river. A future study is needed to conduct other species' distribution modeling exclusive of mammals and to develop a collection method of field survey data.

Effects of climate change and reduction method on water quality in Cheongmicheon watershed (기후 변화에 따른 청미천 유역의 수질 변화 및 저감 대책에 관한 연구)

  • Byun, Jisun;Son, Minwoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.7
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    • pp.585-597
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to investigate the variation of water quality and discharge under the condition of climate change and Best Management Practices (BMPs), which is one of the reduction methods for non-point source pollution. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is applied to case in Cheongmicheon watershed. The coefficients required for SWAT model were calibrated using SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program. Climate change is considered by using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. It is known from simulation results that the non-point source pollutant increases under the climate change scenario assuming worse condition. It is also found in this study that an appropriate application of BMPs is able to reduce the quantity and temporal variation of non-point source pollutant effectively.

Challenges and Solutions of Electronic Journal Consortium (전자저널 컨소시엄의 당면과제와 해결방안 모색)

  • Kim, Sang-Jun
    • Journal of Information Management
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.93-118
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    • 2010
  • This study was aimed to establish a workable strategies to operate KESLI consortium reliably. To encourage the research purposes, it was mainly investigated international literature on current challenges for the e-journals consortium in comparison with the domestic implications. Major issues and challenges are divided to six items by scholarly communication changes and e-journals percentage increase, a big deal for a contract -based consortium pricing model in vogue, a consortium of the price hikes and making budget difficulties, use the standard statistics by the results of the use, archiving and archive security uncertainty, and contracts public availability of such external conditions. As a result, the international challenges of E-journals consortium was similar to KESLI, but the depth of information and research on domestic was weaker than the international research. To see more research and a rational perception based on scientific evidence and alternatives that enable KESLI working in the field was needed to be.

On Fuzzy Methods to Classify Quality Attributes in Kano Model (카노모델에서 품질요소 분류를 위한 퍼지기법 연구)

  • Kim, Seong-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.439-444
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    • 2016
  • The definition of quality continues to evolve. In recent years, there has been growing interest in how to satisfy customers' potential needs with an emphasis on customer-oriented quality. Two-dimensional quality proposed by Kano provides a useful framework for discovering quality attributes critical to customer satisfaction and it is widely employed for product and service development. In Kano model, quality attributes are classified into attractive, one-dimensional, must-be, indifferent, and reverse ones. Finding attractive elements among them is important for achieving customer satisfaction effectively. However, Kano's classification method has limitations in dealing with customers' ambiguous and complex ideas. The customer response itself includes uncertainty and incompleteness. To overcome this problem, fuzzy methods are incorporated with Kano's classification in this paper. According to numerical comparisons, it is shown that the fuzzy Kano method is useful for accommodating various response of customer and is helpful to identify potential needs.