• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty factor

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Constructing Database and Probabilistic Analysis for Ultimate Bearing Capacity of Aggregate Pier (쇄석다짐말뚝의 극한지지력 데이터베이스 구축 및 통계학적 분석)

  • Park, Joon-Mo;Kim, Bum-Joo;Jang, Yeon-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.30 no.8
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    • pp.25-37
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    • 2014
  • In load and resistance factor design (LRFD) method, resistance factors are typically calibrated using resistance bias factors obtained from either only the data within ${\pm}2{\sigma}$ or the data except the tail values of an assumed probability distribution to increase the reliability of the database. However, the data selection approach has a shortcoming that any low-quality data inadvertently included in the database may not be removed. In this study, a data quality evaluation method, developed based on the quality of static load test results, the engineering characteristics of in-situ soil, and the dimension of aggregate piers, is proposed for use in constructing database. For the evaluation of the method, a total 65 static load test results collected from various literatures, including static load test reports, were analyzed. Depending on the quality of the database, the comparison between bias factors, coefficients of variation, and resistance factors showed that uncertainty in estimating bias factors can be reduced by using the proposed data quality evaluation method when constructing database.

The Statistical Technique for Dosimetric Meta-Analysis at in-vivo and in-vitro Papers about Bioeffects of RF Electromagnetic Field (RF 전자기장 생체 영향 연구 문헌에서 노출량 메타분석을 위한 통계적 기법)

  • Choi, Sung-Ho;Kim, Nam
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.14 no.12
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    • pp.1311-1320
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    • 2003
  • This paper proposed the estimating method of electromagnetic dosimetric reliability at in-vivo and in-vitro experiments. For more accurate consequences of these researches, we have tried to find out any correlations among output power, power density and specific absorption rate(SAR) with the results of in-vivo, in-vitro tests and SAR reports of cellular phone and PDA. In the case of in-vivo tests, the power density has close statistical correlations with SAR value and in the event of in-vitro tests, the output power has considerable statistical correlations with SAR containing duty factor. We analysed the coefficient of determination to estimate the dosimeoic uncertainty. If we use this method before evaluating techniques of measurement and analysis at both in-vivo and in-vitro experiments, we will conduct more accurate reliability test.

Barriers to Success of Project Management (프로젝트 관리의 성공에 영향을 미치는 장애요인)

  • Lee, A-yeon;Moon, Kyung-mi;Kim, Seung-chul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.179-190
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    • 2020
  • As the business environment is rapidly changing with globalization and complexity of information flows, the uncertainty is also very increased for project environment. Although many studies have been conducted to find out the critical factors for project success, there still exist different views to define project success. Furthermore, implementing success formula for one project does not necessarily guarantee a success for another project since there are other elements that impede the success of project. In this regards, it is imperative to examine what are the barriers to project success. This study aims to examine the barriers that impede the success of project. Past literature was thoroughly reviewed to collect and develop a preliminary list of elements that affected project performance negatively. Experts were interviewed to refine the list and the final list of the measurement items were developed. A survey questionnaire was developed with the final list of measurement items, and a survey was conducted on the practitioners with project experience. After the survey, an exploratory factor analysis was conducted on the final list to extract the component dimensions which in turn formed the group of project barriers. The exploratory factor analysis provided ten factors, which are difficulty of process management, failure of project feasibility analysis, cost overruns and lack of cost benefits, unclarity project plan, strategic consistency error, stakeholder conflict, inaccuracy of requirement definition, disturbance of communication, technical environment change, negative attitude of top management.

Flexural Vibration of Stiffened Plates in Contact with Water (보강판(補剛板)의 접수진동(接水振動))

  • K.C.,Kim;K.P.,Rhee;H.Y.,Lee
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.11-16
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    • 1980
  • For vibration analysis of stiffened plates the orthotropic plate analogy is commonly accepted. As to stiffened plates in contact with water, however, there is still much uncertainty in estimation of the added mass because of the lack of direct methods. The authors, considering that for added mass of plates there are many reliable data derived theoretically or experimentally available, suggest a method to estimate the added mass of a stiffened plate by combining the mass increase factor, $\beta$, of an equivalent orthotropic plate and the correction factor, $\kappa$, for the effects of stiffeners. The latter is to be derived from systematic experimental investigations. Then, the natural frequency in water, f', can be calculated from that in air, f, by the equation $f'=f/\sqrt{1+\kappa\beta}$. To investigate practical applicability of this method, a systematic experiment was carried out with five uniaxially stiffened plates. Each of them had a plate of same size, $600mm{\times}600mm{\times}3.2mm$, but stiffeners of different size in the web-depth, 41.6mm, 51.2mm or 66.8mm and of different spacing 75mm, 100mm, or 150mm. Natural frequencies were measured under simply supported-edge conditions in both air and water, and corresponding $\kappa$ values derived. In spite of wide variations of web-depth and spcae of stiffeners, the experimental results show that the diversity of $\kappa$ values is not remarkable; mean values of $\kappa$ are 1.31 with standard deviation of 0.025 for the first modes and 1.27 with that 0.077 for the second modes. Hence, the authors concluded that the above $\kappa$ values can be used generally for the cases of uniaxially stiffened plates both sides of which contact with water, and that $\kappa$ values of general use for the cases of cross-stiffened plates may also be obtainable from similar experiments.

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Reliability analysis of slopes stabilised with piles using response surface method

  • Saseendran, Ramanandan;Dodagoudar, G.R.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.513-525
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    • 2020
  • Slopes stabilised with piles are seldom analysed considering uncertainties in the parameters of the pile-slope system. Reliability analysis of the pile-slope system quantifies the degree of uncertainties and evaluates the safety of the system. In the present study, the reliability analysis of a slope stabilised with piles is performed using the first-order reliability method (FORM) based on Hasofer-Lind approach. The implicit performance function associated with the factor of safety (FS) of the slope is approximated using the response surface method. The analyses are carried out considering the design matrices formulated based on both the 2k factorial design augmented with a centre run (2k fact-centred design) and face-centered cube design (FCD). The finite element method is used as the deterministic model to compute the FS of the pile-slope system. Results are compared with the results of the Monte Carlo simulation. It is observed that the optimum location of the row of piles is at the middle of the slope to achieve the maximum FS. The results show that the reliability of the system is not uniform for different pile configurations, even if the system deterministically satisfies the target factor of safety (FSt) criterion. The FSt should be selected judiciously as it is observed that the reliability of the system changes drastically with the FSt level. The results of the 2k fact-centred design and FCD are in good agreement with each other. The procedure of the FCD is computationally costly and hence the use of 2k fact-centred design is recommended, provided the response of the system is sufficiently linear over the factorial space.

A Study on the 'Extended' DSM Programs in Korean LNG Market (산업용 천연가스 수요관리 프로그램 최적화를 위한 동태적 시뮬레이션에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Han-Soo;Choi, Ki-Ryun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.211-231
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    • 2002
  • This paper summarizes the results of a study that assess how a demand side management (DSM) system addresses key economic and environmental challenges facing in the Korean natural gas sector considering; ${\bullet}$ high discrepancies of seasonal consumption volume and of load factor in unmatured domestic LNG market, ${\bullet}$ unfavorable and volatile international LNG market, imposing with the contestable "take-or-pay" contract terms, ${\bullet}$ low profile of LNG and existence of market barriers against an optimal fuel mix status in the industrial energy sector. A particular focus of this study is to establish an 'extended' DSM system in the unmatured gas market, especially in industry sector, that could play a key role to assure an optimum fuel mix scheme. Under the concept of 'extended' DSM, a system dynamics modeling approach has been introduced to explore the option to maximize economic benefits in terms of the national energy system optimization, entailing different ways of commitments accounting for different DSM measures and time delay scenarios. The study concludes that policy options exist that can reduce inefficiencies in gas industry and end-use system at no net costs to national economy. The most scenarios find that, by the year 2015, it is possible to develop a substantial potential of increased industrial gas end-uses under more reliable and stable load patterns. Assessment of sensitivity analysis suggests that time delay factor, in formulating DSM scenarios, plays a key role to overcome various market barriers in domestic LNG market and provides a strong justification for the policy portfolios 'just in time' (time accurateness), which eventually contribute to establish an optimum fuel mix strategy. The study indicates also the needs of advanced studies based on SD approach to articulate uncertainty in unmatured energy market analysis, including gas.

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High-Dose-Rate Electron-Beam Dosimetry Using an Advanced Markus Chamber with Improved Ion-Recombination Corrections

  • Jeong, Dong Hyeok;Lee, Manwoo;Lim, Heuijin;Kang, Sang Koo;Jang, Kyoung Won
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.145-152
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: In ionization-chamber dosimetry for high-dose-rate electron beams-above 20 mGy/pulse-the ion-recombination correction methods recommended by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) are not appropriate, because they overestimate the correction factor. In this study, we suggest a practical ion-recombination correction method, based on Boag's improved model, and apply it to reference dosimetry for electron beams of about 100 mGy/pulse generated from an electron linear accelerator (LINAC). Methods: This study employed a theoretical model of the ion-collection efficiency developed by Boag and physical parameters used by Laitano et al. We recalculated the ion-recombination correction factors using two-voltage analysis and obtained an empirical fitting formula to represent the results. Next, we compared the calculated correction factors with published results for the same calculation conditions. Additionally, we performed dosimetry for electron beams from a 6 MeV electron LINAC using an Advanced Markus® ionization chamber to determine the reference dose in water at the source-to-surface distance (SSD)=100 cm, using the correction factors obtained in this study. Results: The values of the correction factors obtained in this work are in good agreement with the published data. The measured dose-per-pulse for electron beams at the depth of maximum dose for SSD=100 cm was 115 mGy/pulse, with a standard uncertainty of 2.4%. In contrast, the ks values determined using the IAEA and AAPM methods are, respectively, 8.9% and 8.2% higher than our results. Conclusions: The new method based on Boag's improved model provides a practical method of determining the ion-recombination correction factors for high dose-per-pulse radiation beams up to about 120 mGy/pulse. This method can be applied to electron beams with even higher dose-per-pulse, subject to independent verification.

Examining the Moderating Role of Purchase Experience in the Relationship between Perceived Risk and Purchase Intention of Online Used Goods (온라인 중고제품 구매에 관한 지각된 위험과 구매의도: 온/오프 중고품 구매경험의 조절효과)

  • Han, Su Jin;Kang, Sora
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.123-140
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    • 2022
  • In the ever-increasing online secondhand product market, the perceived risk of online used products purchase was identified as a factor influencing consumer purchase intention. The results of this study are as follows. First, the relationship between the perceived risk of online secondhand purchase and purchase intention was presented with somewhat different results for each sub-risk factor. First of all, a significant negative causal relationship between physical risk, time loss risk, psychological risk, social risk and online used product purchase intention was verified. On the other hand, financial risk and functional risk did not show a statistically significant relationship with online used products purchase intention. Second, as a result of research on the moderating effect of purchasing experience, offline purchasing experience of used products and online purchasing experience were verified differently. First of all, the moderating effect of the online purchase experience of used products was significant only in the relationship between psychological and social risks on the intention to purchase used products online. The experience of purchasing used products online is believed to reduce uncertainty about the surrounding response to purchasing used products online and weaken the intention to purchase used products online by reducing tension and concerns about purchasing them. Other risks, such as financial risk, performance risk, physical risk, time loss risk, and online purchase experience of used products, were verified to have no significant effect on online used products purchase intention. In addition, the offline purchase experience of used products did not verify a significant moderating effect on the effect of all perceived risks on online used product purchase intention.

Estimation of Undrained Shear Strength for Clays Using Effective Cone Factor (유효콘계수를 이용한 포화점토의 비배수전단강도 평가)

  • Kim, Chang-Dong;Kim, Soo-Il;Lee, Jun-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.24 no.11
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    • pp.133-141
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    • 2008
  • In this study, a new method for estimating the undrained shear strength $s_u$ of saturated clays using piezocone penetration test (CPTu) result is proposed. This is to develop more effective CPTu-based $s_u$ estimation method at lower cost with less uncertainty. For this purpose, a marine clay deposit is selected and tested through extensive experimental testing program including both in-situ and fundamental laboratory tests. The proposed method is based on a correlation between the undrained shear strength $s_u$ and the cone resistance $q_t$, without introduction of the total overburden stress into the $s_u-q_t$ correlation. As a result, no additional testing procedure for collecting undisturbed soils samples is required, which can reduce overall testing cost. To verify the proposed method, 4 test sites, which consist of a variety of soil conditions, are selected and used for comparison between measured and predicted undrained shear strength. From comparison, it is seen that predicted values of $s_u$ using the proposed method match well those from measured results.

Evaluation of the Resistance Bias Factors to Develop LRFD for Driven Steel Pipe Piles (LRFD 설계를 위한 항타강관말뚝의 저항편향계수 산정)

  • Kwak, Kiseok;Park, Jaehyun;Choi, Yongkyu;Huh, Jungwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.5C
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    • pp.343-350
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    • 2006
  • The resistance bias factors for driven steel pipe piles are evaluated as a part of study to develop the LRFD(Load and Resistance Factor Design) for foundation structures in Korea. The 43 data sets of static load tests and soil property tests performed in the whole domestic area were collected and analyzed to determine the representative bearing capacities of the piles using various methods. Based on the statistical analysis of the data, the Davisson's criterion is proved to be the most reasonable method for estimation of pile bearing capacity among the methods used. The static bearing capacity formulas and the Meyerhof method using N values are applied to calculate the design bearing capacity of the piles. The resistance bias factors of the driven steel pipe piles are evaluated respectively as 0.98 and 1.46 by comparison of the bearing capacities for both of the static bearing capacity formulas and the Meyerhof method. It is also shown that uncertainty of the static bearing capacity formulas is relatively less than that of the Meyerhof method.