• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제42권6호
• /
• pp.690-703
• /
• 2010

Sampling based uncertainty analysis was carried out to quantify uncertainty in predictions of best estimate code RELAP5/MOD3.2 for a thermal hydraulic test (10% hot leg break LOCA) performed in the Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF) as a part of an IAEA coordinated research project. The nodalisation of the test facility was qualified for both steady state and transient level by systematically applying the procedures led by uncertainty methodology based on accuracy extrapolation (UMAE); uncertainty analysis was carried out using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method to evaluate uncertainty for ten input parameters. Sixteen output parameters were selected for uncertainty evaluation and uncertainty band between $5^{th}$ and $95^{th}$ percentile of the output parameters were evaluated. It was observed that the uncertainty band for the primary pressure during two phase blowdown is larger than that of the remaining period. Similarly, a larger uncertainty band is observed relating to accumulator injection flow during reflood phase. Importance analysis was also carried out and standard rank regression coefficients were computed to quantify the effect of each individual input parameter on output parameters. It was observed that the break discharge coefficient is the most important uncertain parameter relating to the prediction of all the primary side parameters and that the steam generator (SG) relief pressure setting is the most important parameter in predicting the SG secondary pressure.

• 한국항공운항학회지
• /
• 제19권1호
• /
• pp.7-14
• /
• 2011

In this study, the measurement uncertainty of combustion experimental system and experimental parameters for hybrid rocket were evaluated by B type evaluation method. The measurement uncertainty of all experimental parameters was lower than 3%. The highest value of expanded uncertainty was characteristic velocity efficiency with 2.83% and the expanded uncertainty of regression rate which is the design and performance parameter was indicated to 0.03%. These results shown that the reliability of hybrid combustion system was located within allowed limits.

• 전기학회논문지P
• /
• 제57권3호
• /
• pp.285-290
• /
• 2008

We have developed the absolute evaluation technique of capacitor and inductor by measuring the phase displacement as a function of resistance of employed resistors in voltage transformer(VT) comparator. The methods were applied to the capacitor with the range of 100 nF - $5{\mu}F$ and the inductor with the range of $100{\mu}H{\sim}1\;H$. The capacitance values of capacitor obtained using our method are consistent within the expanded uncertainty those obtained using capacitor bridge. The inductance values of inductor obtained using our method are also consistent within the expanded uncertainty those obtained using LCR meter.

• 한국정밀공학회지
• /
• 제15권11호
• /
• pp.67-75
• /
• 1998

Geometric and thermal errors are key contributors to the errors of a computer numerically controlled turning center. A planar error synthesis model is obtained by synthesizing 11 geometric and thermal error components of a turning center with homogeneous coordinate transformation method. This paper shows the sensitivity analysis on the temperature change, the confidence evaluation on the uncertainty Of measurement systems, and the error contribution analysis from the planar error synthesis model. Planar error in the z direction was very sensitive to the temperature change. and planar errors in the x and z directions were not affected by the uncertainty of measurement systems. The error contribution analysis ,which is applicable to designing a new turning center, was helpful to find the large error components which affect planar errors of the turning center.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
• /
• 제3권2호
• /
• pp.21-34
• /
• 2013

Various risk factors affect construction projects. Due to the uncertainties created by risk factors, actual activity durations frequently deviate from the estimated durations in either favorable or adverse direction. For this reason, evaluation of schedule uncertainty is required to make decisions accurately when managing construction projects. In this regard, this paper presents a new computer simulation model - the Repetitive Schedule Risk Analysis Model (RSRAM) - to evaluate unit-based repetitive building project schedules under uncertainty when activity durations and risk factors are correlated. The proposed model utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation and a Critical Path Method based repetitive scheduling procedure. This new procedure concurrently provides the utilization of resources without interruption and the maintenance of network logic through successive units. Furthermore, it enables assigning variable production rates to the activities from one unit to another and any kind of relationship type with or without lag time. Details of the model are described and an example application is presented. The findings show that the model produces realistic results regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.

• 한국자기학회:학술대회 개요집
• /
• 한국자기학회 2000년도 International Symposium on Magnetics The 2000 Fall Conference
• /
• pp.563-564
• /
• 2000

• 약학회지
• /
• 제51권3호
• /
• pp.206-213
• /
• 2007

Recently estimating the uncertainty of an analytical result has become an essential part of quantitative analysis. This study describes the uncertainty of the measurement for the determination of methamphetamine and its major metabolite amphetamine in human hair, The method consists of washing, drying, weighing, incubation and extraction with methanolic HCI solution, clean-up, trifluoroacetyl derivatization, and qualification/quantification of residues by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Traceability of measurement was established through traceable standards and calibrated volumetric equipment and measuring instruments. Measurement uncertainty associated with each analyte in real samples was estimated using quality control (QC) data. The main source of combined standard uncertainty comprised two components, which are uncertainties associated with calibration linearity and variations in QC, while those associated with preparation of analytical standards and sample weighing were not so important considering the degree of contribution. Relative combined standard uncertainties associated with the described method ranged for individual analytes from 4.99 to5.03%.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
• /
• 제15권2호
• /
• pp.331-343
• /
• 2019

Dynamic thermal rating of the overhead transmission lines is affected by many uncertain factors. The ambient temperature, wind speed and wind direction are the main sources of uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty is an important parameter to evaluate the reliability of measurement results. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo. On the basis of establishing the mathematical model and setting the probability density function of the input parameter value, the probability density function of the output value is determined by probability distribution random sampling. Through the calculation and analysis of the transient thermal balance equation and the steady- state thermal balance equation, the steady-state current carrying capacity, the transient current carrying capacity, the standard uncertainty and the probability distribution of the minimum and maximum values of the conductor under 95% confidence interval are obtained. The simulation results indicate that Monte Carlo method can decrease the computational complexity, speed up the calculation, and increase the validity and reliability of the uncertainty evaluation.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한전기학회 1991년도 하계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.402-405
• /
• 1991

This paper represents a new method for computing reliability indices by using Large Deviation method which is one of the probabilistic production cost simulations. The reliability measures are based on the models used for the loads and for the generating unit failure states. In computing these measures it has been tacitly assumed that the values of all parameters in the models are precisely known. In fact, however, some of these values must often be chosen with a considerable degree of uncertainty involved. This is particularly true for the forecast peak loads in the load model, where there is an inherent uncertainty in the method of forecasting, which are frequently based on insufficient statistics. In this paper, the effect of load forecasting uncertainty on the LOLP(Loss of Load Probability), is investigated. By applying the Large Deviation method to the IEEE Rilability Test System, it is verified that the proposed method is generally very accurate and very fast for computing system reliability indices.

• 한국연초학회지
• /
• 제27권1호
• /
• pp.107-114
• /
• 2005

The uncertainty of measurement in quantitative analysis of ammonia by continuous-flow analysis method was evaluated following internationally accepted guidelines. The sources of uncertainty associated with the analysis of ammonia were the weighing of sample, the preparation of extracting solution, the addition of extracting solution into the sample, the reproducibility of analysis and the determination of water content in tobacco, etc. In calculating uncertainties, Type A of uncertainty was evaluated by the statistical analysis of a series of observation, and Type B by the information based on supplier's catalogue and/or certificated of calibration. It was shown that the main source of uncertainty was caused by the volume measurement of 1 mL and 2 mL, the purity of ammonia reference material in the preparation of standard solution, the reproducibility of analysis and the determination of water content of tobacco. The uncertainty in the addition of extraction solution, the sample weighing, the volume measurement of 50 mL and 100 mL, and the calibration curve of standard solution contributed relatively little to the overall uncertainty. The expanded uncertainty of ammonia determination in burley tobacco at $95\%$ level of confidence was $0.00997\%$.