[KSCI] Korea Science Citation Index Service

http://dx.doi.org/10.3745/JIPS.04.0109

Uncertainty Analysis of Dynamic Thermal Rating of Overhead Transmission Line

Zhou, Xing (School of Mechanical, Electrical and Information Engineering, Shandong University)
Wang, Yanling (School of Mechanical, Electrical and Information Engineering, Shandong University)
Zhou, Xiaofeng (Dept. of Mechanical and Electrical engineering, Weihai Vocational College)
Tao, Weihua (Beaulieu Yarns (Weihai) Company Limited)
Niu, Zhiqiang (State Grid Weihai Power Supply Company)
Qu, Ailing (Dept. of Information Technology, Beijing Vocational College of Agriculture)

Publication Information

Journal of Information Processing Systems / v.15, no.2, 2019 , pp. 331-343 More about this Journal

Abstract

Dynamic thermal rating of the overhead transmission lines is affected by many uncertain factors. The ambient temperature, wind speed and wind direction are the main sources of uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty is an important parameter to evaluate the reliability of measurement results. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo. On the basis of establishing the mathematical model and setting the probability density function of the input parameter value, the probability density function of the output value is determined by probability distribution random sampling. Through the calculation and analysis of the transient thermal balance equation and the steady- state thermal balance equation, the steady-state current carrying capacity, the transient current carrying capacity, the standard uncertainty and the probability distribution of the minimum and maximum values of the conductor under 95% confidence interval are obtained. The simulation results indicate that Monte Carlo method can decrease the computational complexity, speed up the calculation, and increase the validity and reliability of the uncertainty evaluation.

Keywords

Confidence Interval; Dynamic Thermal Rating; Monte Carlo Method; Transmission Line Carrying Capacity;

Citations & Related Records

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