• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty assessment

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Quantification Model Development of Human Accidents based on the Insurance Claim Payout on Construction Site (건설공사보험 사례를 활용한 건설현장 인명사고 정량화 모델 개발)

  • Ha, Sun-Geun;Kim, Tae-Hui;Son, Ki-Young;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.151-159
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    • 2018
  • Accident rate in the construction industry of South Korea is increasing every year, and it represents the highest percentage among industries. This shows that activities performed to prevent safety accidents in the country are not efficient when it comes to reduce the accident rate. In order to resolve this issue, a model for the prediction of human accidents should be established. In addition, it is required a quantification study based on pattern of human accidents. Therefore, the objective of this study is to quantify uncertainty of human accidents risk and predict how to change in various circumstances by using Monte Carlo Simulation. To achieve the objective, first, pattern of human accidents was defined. Second, insurance claim payout and information of human accidents during 14 years in construction site were collected. Third, descriptive analysis is conducted to determine the characteristics of the accident pattern. Fourth, to quantitatively analyze the pattern of the human accidents, the population of each accident occurrence and payout were estimated. Finally, estimated populations was analyzed according to characteristics of distribution by using Monte carlo simulation. In the future, this study can be used as a reference for developing the safety management checklist in construction site and development of prediction models of human accident.

Assessment of $^{137}Cs$ for Selection of Reference Site of In Situ Gamma Spectrometry in Some Areas of Jeju Island (현장 감마분광분석 참고지 선정을 위한 제주 일부 지역 $^{137}Cs$ 평가)

  • Kim, Chang Jong;Cho, Yoon Hae;Kang, Tae Woo;Ko, Seok Hyung;Yun, Ju Yong;Lee, Dong Myeong
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.167-172
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    • 2012
  • Jeju Island is a significant area as a reference site of in situ gamma spectrometry because there are a number of open spaces which includes $^{137}Cs$ above a certain level. In this paper, the pasture within the Hallasan National Park was selected as one of the open spaces of Jeju Island. The homogeneity of $^{137}Cs$ at the site was assessed by analysis of variance on count and by radioactivity concentration obtained through in situ gamma spectrometry. For this purpose, the count of a total of 79 points at 3 sites were measured with less than count uncertainty of 5% for 2000 seconds. In the results of the analysis of variance, the 2 sites were homogeneous, and the remaining 1 site can be specified to be homogeneous through the adjustment of measuring range. The distribution of radioactivity concentration calculated by in situ gamma spectrometry were $53.7{\sim}93.2Bq\;kg^{-1}$, $30.5{\sim}61.0Bq\;kg^{-1}$ and $48.8{\sim}102Bq\;kg^{-1}$ at each site.

Uncertainty Assessment of CANDU Void Reactivity using MCNP-4C with ENDF/B-VII(I) (ENDF/B-VII기반 MCNP-4C를 이용한 CANDU-6 기포반응도 불확실성 평가(I))

  • Hong, S.T.;Kwon, T.A.;Lee, Y.J.;Oh, S.K.;Lee, S.K.;Kim, M.W.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Energy Engineering kosee Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.69-75
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    • 2008
  • 기포반응도는 월성발전소를 비롯한 CANDU형 원자로의 주된 안전성 쟁점사안으로 끊임없이 논의되어 왔다. 이는 설계기준사고가 노심에서 열에너지 불균형이 원인이 되어 기준이상의 핵연료 파손과 방사성물질 누출로 발전할 위험이 있는 사건들로 정의될 때, 사건 진행 과정에 기포반응도 증가는 조기에 운전중단을 실패할 경우 출력폭주로 이어지므로 사건의 결말이 중대사고로 전환될 위험이 크기 때문이다. 본 연구는 공개된 최신 핵자료인 ENDF/B-VII.0를 NJOY.99로 처리한 연속에너지 반응단면적 라이브러리를 구축하고 MCNP-4C에 접속하여 37봉 천연우라늄 핵연료다발의 표준노심격자에 대한 기포반응도를 시뮬레이션하여, 지금까지 각종문헌에 제시된 값들과 비교, 종합하므로 내제된 불확실성을 추정하는 내용이다. ENDF/B-VII.0 기반 MCNP-4C의 CANDU 노심격자 모델은 동일한 핵자료와 핵종농도를 사용한 WIMS-IAEA 모델과 비교할 때, 초기 노심의 임계도 오차 약 3.51mk가 연소 진행에 따라 $7.5\times10^{-4}mk$/MWD/teU의 비율로 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 MCNP-4C 예측기포반응도는 초기노심에서 기포율 50% 및 100%에 대해 각각 8.38 및 15.96mk, 평형노심에서 7.68 및 14.72mk로 계산된다. 이는 월성 2, 3, 4 FSAR의 초기노심 및 평형노심에서 100% 기포상태에 대한 값, 약15.0 및 10.6mk와 비교할 때, 초기노심은 약 1.0mk 평형노심은 약4, 1mk 보수적이지만, 다른 연구결과들과는 최대오차 ${\pm}1{\sim}2mk$ 이내에서 잘 일치하는 것으로 평가되었다. 본 연구는 CANDU 노심의 기포반응도 불확실성 요인의 규명 및 영향평가를 위한 노력의 일부로서 앞으로 감속재의 붕산농도 변화, 감속재 및 냉각재의 중수 순도 변화, 기기노화에 의한 격자 구조 및 물성 변화, 중성자속 및 출력 분포 불균형, 반응도조절장치의 위치, 등 주요 설계변수의 변화에 대한 반응도영향 분석연구를 계속할 계획이다.

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Toxicity Assessment and Establishment of Acceptable Daily Intake of Fungicide Isotianil (살균제 Isotianil의 독성평가와 일일섭취허용량 설정)

  • Jeong, Mi-Hye;Hong, Soon-Sung;Park, Kynng-Hun;Park, Jae-Eup;Hong, Moo-Ki;Lim, Moo-Hyeog;Kim, Young-Bum;Han, Bum-Sook;Han, Jeung-Sul
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.490-498
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    • 2010
  • Isotianil is a fungicide which has prevention effects against rice blast disease. In order to register this new pesticide, the series of toxicity data on animal testing were reviewed to evaluate its hazards to consumers and to determine its acceptable daily intake. Isotianil was almost excreted by urine and feces. It has low acute oral toxicity while has no skin toxicity and ocular irritation. Its skin sensitization was evaluated as slight. Genotoxicity of parent compound and metabolite was negligible. Chronic toxicity tests on rats and dogs showed changes of hematology, clinical biochemistry and liver weight. It had no reproductive and teratogenic effects. The estimation of Acceptable Daily Intake(ADI) is based on the lowest no-observed adverse effect level (NOAEL). The lowest NOAEL of 2.83 mg/kg bw/day was found in the twelve-months rats study. The NOAEL was based on increased liver weight and treatment-related effect on clinica chemistry finding at the nest higher dose level of 2.83 mg/kg bw/day. Therefore, it is considered appropriated to apply an uncertainty factor of 100 to the NOAEL 2.83 mg/kg bw/day from the rat study, resulting in an ADI of 0.028 mg/kg bw/day.

Toxicity Assessment and Establishment Acceptable Daily Intake of Lepimectin (레피멕틴(Lepimectin)의 독성평가와 일일섭취허용량 설정)

  • Jeong, Mi-Hye;Hong, Soon-Sung;Park, Kyung-Hun;Park, Jae-Eup;Kwack, Seung-Jun;Kim, Young-Bum;Han, Bum-Seok;Son, Woo-Chen
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.218-229
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    • 2011
  • Lepimectin is a insecticide agent. In order to register this new pesticide, the series of toxicity data on animal testing were reviwed to evaluate its hazards to consumers and to determine its acceptable daily intake. Lepimectin was mostly excreted by feces. It has low acute oral toxicity while it has no dermal, ocular irritation and skin sensitization (As the result of subchronic, chronic toxicity and carcinogenicity showed changes of hematology and clinical biochemistry parameter of serum and blood.). Two-generation reproduction toxicity, genotoxicity, carcinogenicity and prenatal development toxicity were not proven. Therefore, the ADI for Lepimectin is 0.02 mg/kg/ bw/day, based on the NOAEL of 2.02 mg/kg/ bw/day of two-years carcinogenic toxicity study in rats and applying an uncertainty factor of 100.

Toxicity Assessment and Establishment Acceptable Daily Intake of Pyrimisulfan (피리미설판(Pyrimisulfan)의 독성평가와 일일섭취허용량 설정)

  • Jeong, Mi-Hye;Park, Kyung-Hun;Park, Jae-Eup;Kwack, Seung-Jon;Kim, Young-Bum;Han, Bum-Seok;Son, Woo-Chen
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.208-217
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    • 2011
  • Pyrimisulfan is a herbicide. In order to register this new pesticide, the series of toxicity data on animal testing were reviewed to evaluate its hazards to consumers and also to determine its acceptable daily intake. Pyrimisulfan was excreted mostly by feces. It has low acute oral toxicity while it has no dermal, ocular irritation and skin sensitization (As the result of subchronic and chronic toxicity and carcinogenicity showed changes of hematology and liver.). Two-generation reproduction toxicity, genotoxicity, carcinogenicity and prenatal development toxicity were not proven. Therefore, the ADI for Pyrimisulfan is 0.1 mg/kg/ bw/day, based on the NOAEL of 10 mg/kg/ bw/day of 90-days repeated dose oral toxicity study in dogs while applying an uncertainty factor of 100.

A Phenomenological Study on Mother-Infant Interacting Behavior Patterns Related to Newborn Infant Feeding in Korea (한국인 영아초기 수유시 모아상호작용 행동형태에 관한 현상학적 연구)

  • 한경자
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.89-116
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    • 1991
  • The purpose of this study was to describe mother -infant interacting behavior patterns related to newborn infant feeding and to explore the mother's cultural belief about their infant. The data collection was conducted by observation and interview. Twenty-five mothers and their newborn infants who were normally delivered and were also planned to breast feed were comprised as the subjects of this study. All subjects were interviewed and observed individuaily at 1 to 5 days after the delivery at the hospital, mid -wife's clinic, Maternal Child Health Center and their home throughout the country from remote area to big city, The observation data were recorded with symbolic letter on a recording sheet newly developed as a result of preliminary study. The interview data were taperecorded and then recorded in narrative form. Mother - infant interaction behaviors in early feeding period were analyzed based on 19 analytic sub-categories and their composing elements. Unit of analysis were mother, infant and mother -infant dyad. 8 analytic categories draw from the data. Each were preparation, instrument, interaction inducing, evaluation referred to mother's behavior, preparation, instrument, interaction inducing referred to infant's behavior and synchronic behaviors referred to mother - infant dyad. Frequencies of behavior items based on the categories were converted to percent. The result showed that in mother's preparation behavior, the breast condition of Korean mother can be an affecting factor for mother - infant interaction during feeding, and vocalization behavior was observed most frequently in interaction inducing behavior while the least frequent behavior observed was contacting. Subcultural characteristics of mother - infant interaction behaviors were analyzed for their relationships between groups of mothers who have lived in remote area vs urban area, and who were multipara vs primipara. Using a chi -square test, there were statistically significant relationships in the activity of psychological readiness in preparation behavior and the movement of extremities for the position of instrumental behavior in both groups. However, interaction inducing behaviors were not related with statistical significance in any set of groups. Accomplishment of marriage, bonding and emotional mediation of family members were the categories related to mother's cultural belief about the infant in aspect of functional values. Infant at birth is considered little more than a biological organism without social capabilities. Although the newborn infant is still be attached to his mother, he makes his mother extend her territoriality. The mother's interacting behavior toward her infant based on those beliefs appeared task oriented, separative behavioral series. On the other hand, it was seen that infant reacted independently to his mother's behavior by the in-nate perceptual abilities. Those independent behavioral series of mother and infant on the feeding situation were synchronized at any moment. Nurses are In a unique position to teach mothers about their infant's capabilities and help reducing some of uncertainty about infant's behaviors. Study results indicated that the informations infant's social capabilities and breast feeding should be given to the mothers. The results of this study have several implications for nursing. First, the study results will be used as fundamental resources for the development of the assessment tool about the early mother - infant interaction. Second, the results could be a relevant information in the fied. I of maternal child nursing education as real and useful data. Third, the behavioral patterns of early mother - infant interaction which were classified based on the qualitative analysis could be used for nursing theory development as very fundamental data.

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Clinical Characteristics of Panic Disorder with Comorbid Major Depressive Disorder (주요우울장애를 동반한 공황장애 환자군의 임상적 특징)

  • Lee, Sun-Woo;Lee, Kang Soo;Lee, Sang-Hyuk
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2018
  • Objectives The objective of this study was to investigate the differences in sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, temperaments, and quality of life between panic disorder (PD) patients with and without major depressive disorder (PD+MDD and PD-MDD patients, respectively). Methods We compared 411 PD-MDD and 219 PD+MDD patients. All patients who were drug-free for at least 1 month were assessed at initial outpatient visits before the administration of medication. The following instruments were used for assessment: the NEO Personality Inventory-Neuroticism (NEO-N) ; the Temperament and Character Inventory-Harm Avoidance (TCI-HA) ; the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) ; the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale-Short (IUS); the Anxiety Sensitivity Index-Revised (ASI-R); the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) ; the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI); the Penn State Worry Questionnaire (PSWQ) ; the Generalized Anxiety Disorder for 7 item (GAD-7) ; the Albany Panic and Phobia Questionnaire (APPQ) ; the Panic Disorder Severity Scale (PDSS) ; the Early Trauma Inventory Self Report-Short Form (ETISR-SF) ; the Scale for Suicidal Ideation (SSI) ; the World Health Organization Quality of Life Scale Abbreviated Version (WHOQOL-BREF) ; the Sheehan Disability Scale (SDS) ; and the Short Form health survey (SF-36). Results Compared to the PD-MDD patients, the PD+MDD patients were younger and more likely to be unmarried. They showed higher rates of unemployment, lower levels of education and income, younger age of onset, more previous suicide attempts, a greater incidence of agoraphobia, and more previous treatments. The PD+MDD patients showed significantly higher scores on the NEO-N, the TCI-HA, the STAI, the IUS, the ASI-R, the BDI, the BAI, the PSWQ, the GAD-7, the APPQ, the PDSS, the ETISR-SF, and the SSI. In addition, the PD+MDD patients showed significantly lower quality of life than did the PD-MDD patients. In contrast with previous studies, we observed no significant differences between the two groups in terms of gender, duration until treatment, and psychiatric comorbidities. Conclusions This study showed that the PD+MDD patients have more early trauma experiences, higher levels of anxiety-related temperaments, more severe panic and depressive symptoms, and lower quality of life than the PD-MDD patients.

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Establishment of the Korean Tolerable Daily Intake of Bisphenol A Based on Risk Assessments by an Expert Committee

  • Choi, Chan-Woong;Jeong, Ji-Yoon;Hwang, Myung-Sil;Jung, Ki-Kyung;Lee, Kwang-Ho;Lee, Hyo-Min
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.285-291
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    • 2010
  • Recently, reproductive and neurobehavioral effects of bisphenol A (BPA) have been documented, and thus a review was requested for BPA management direction by the government. Therefore, this study was performed to establish a Korean tolerable daily intake (TDI) for BPA. An expert committee, consisting of specialists in fields such as toxicology, medicine, pharmacology, and statistics, was asked to evaluate BPA health based guidance values (HbGVs). Although many toxicological studies were reviewed to select a point of departure (POD) for TDI, rat and mouse reproductive studies by Tyl et al. (2002, 2006), which were performed according to GLP standards and OECD guidelines, were selected. This POD was the lowest value determined from the most sensitive toxicological test. The POD, a NOAEL of 5 mg/kg bw/day, was selected based on its systemic toxicity as critical effects. An uncertainty factor of 100 including interspecies and intraspecies differences was applied to calculate the TDI. According to the evaluation results, a TDI of BPA for Korean was suggested at 0.05 mg/kg bw/day. In addition, the BPA exposure level based on food consumption by the Korean population was estimated as 1.509 ${\mu}g/kg$ bw/day, and the HI was evaluated at 0.03 when the TDI of 0.05 mg/kg bw/day was applied. This HI value of 0.03 indicated that hazardous effects would not be expected from BPA oral exposures. Although highly uncertain, further studies on low dose neurobehavioral effects of BPA should be performed. In addition, it is recommended that the 'as low as reasonably achievable' (ALARA) principle be applied for BPA exposure from food packaging materials in newborn infants and children.

Spatio-temporal variability of future wind energy over the Korean Peninsular using Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오를 활용한 한반도 미래 풍력에너지의 시공간적 변동성 전망)

  • Kim, Yumi;Lim, Yoon-Jin;Lee, Hyun-Kyoung;Choi, Byoung-Choel
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.833-848
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    • 2014
  • The assessment of the current and future climate change-induced potential wind energy is an important issue in the planning and operations of wind farm. Here, the authors analyze spatiotemporal characteristics and variabilities of wind energy over Korean Peninsula in the near future (2006-2040) using Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios data. In this study, National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) regional climate model HadGEM3-RA based RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios are analyzed. The comparison between ERA-interim and HadGEM3-RA during the period of 1981-2005 indicates that the historical simulation of HadGEM3-RA slightly overestimates (underestimates) the wind energy over the land (ocean). It also shows that interannual and intraseasonal variability of hindcast data is generally larger than those of reanalysis data. The investigation of RCP scenarios based future wind energy presents that future wind energy density will increase over the land and decrease over the ocean. The increase in the wind energy and its variability is particularly significant over the mountains and coastal areas, such as Jeju island in future global warming. More detailed analysis presents that the changes in synoptic conditions over East Asia in future decades can influence on the predicted wind energy abovementioned. It is also suggested that the uncertainty of the predicted future wind energy may increase because of the increase of interannual and intra-annual variability. In conclusion, our results can be used as a background data for devising a plan to develop and operate wind farm over the Korean Peninsula.

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