• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.189-189
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• 2016

To generate information that contributes to climate change risk management, it is important to perform a precise assessment on the impact in diverse aspects. Considering this academic necessity, Japanese government launched continuous research project for the climate change impact assessment, and one of the representative project is Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (Sousei Program), Theme D; Precise Impact Assessment on Climate Change (FY2012 ~ FY2016). In this research program, quantitative impact assessments have been doing from a variety of perspectives including natural hazards, water resources, and ecosystems and biodiversity. Especially for the natural hazards aspect, a comprehensive impact assessment has been carried out with the worst-case scenario of typhoons, which cause the most serious weather-related damage in Japan, concerning the frequency and scale of the typhoons as well as accompanying disasters by heavy rainfall, strong winds, high tides, high waves, and landslides. In this presentation, a framework of comprehensive impact assessment with the worst-case scenario under the climate change condition is introduced based on a case study of Theme D in Sousei program There are approx. 25 typhoons annually and around 10 of those approach or make landfall in Japan. The number of typhoons may not change increase in the future, but it is known that a small alteration in the path of a typhoon can have an extremely large impact on the amount of rain and wind Japan receives, and as a result, cause immense damage. Specifically, it is important to assess the impact of a complex disaster including precipitation, strong winds, river overflows, and high tide inundation, simulating how different the damage of Isewan Typhoon (T5915) in 1959 would have been if the typhoon had taken a different path, or how powerful or how much damage it would cause if Isewan Typhoon occurs again in the future when the sea surface water temperature has risen due to climate changes (Pseudo global warming experiment). The research group also predict and assess how the frequency of "100-years return period" disasters and worst-case damage will change in the coming century. As a final goal in this research activity, the natural disaster impact assessment will extend not only Japan but also major rivers in Southeast Asia, with a special focus on floods and inundations.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.26 no.7
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• pp.892-903
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• 2020

The rapid and accurate prediction of storm-surge height during typhoon attacks is essential in responding to coastal disasters. Most methods used for predicting typhoon data are based on numerical modeling, but numerical modeling takes significant computing resources and time. Recently, various studies on the expeditious production of predictive data based on artificial intelligence have been conducted, and in this study, artificial intelligence-based storm-surge height prediction was performed. Several learning data were needed for artificial intelligence training. Because the number of previous typhoons was limited, many synthesized typhoons were created using the tropical cyclone risk model, and the storm-surge height was also generated using the storm surge model. The comparison of the storm-surge height predicted using artificial intelligence with the actual typhoon, showed that the root-mean-square error was 0.09 ~ 0.30 m, the correlation coefficient was 0.65 ~ 0.94, and the absolute relative error of the maximum height was 1.0 ~ 52.5%. Although errors appeared to be somewhat large at certain typhoons and points, future studies are expected to improve accuracy through learning-data optimization.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.43-53
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• 2017

This study aims to analyze the effect of typhoons on pear production. Pears are typical fruits that are vulnerable to typhoon damages, so typhoons are negatively associated with pear productivity. However, relatively less pear damages by typhoons in the main pear production area, comparing to the average in Korea, have been reported. The main production area seems to adopt better agricultural techniques or practices to cope with natural disasters such as typhoons. Thus, this study tests the hypothesis that there are differences of production losses due to typhoons between the main pear production area and the rest using the stochastic frontier analysis. The main production area is defined by Location Quotient Index (LQI), and we found that LQI had a significant effect to decrease the productivity losses in the main production areas, which shows that those production areas alleviated the pear production loss due to typhoons.

• Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.79-83
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• 2007

• KCID journal
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.96-105
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• 2005

• Atmosphere
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.93-106
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• 2009

Analysis has been made on the wind wave characteristics in terms of significant wave height ($H_s$) near the Korean marginal seas in the 2006 - 2007 year using the third generation wave model, WAVEWATCH - III model. In order to evaluate its performance, its results were compared with the observed data using KMA ocean buoy. The two year average RMSE between modeled and observed Hs shows reasonably small value of about 0.37 m. The accuracy of predicted values in the year 2007 is increased mainly due to finer model grid size and better accurate wind field. The model used in this study predicts very well the characteristics ($H_s$) of wind waves near the Korean Peninsular. Simulated monthly wind waves show the evident seasonal variations due to Typhoons in summer season. When Typhoons approach to Korean Peninsular, the accuracy of wind waves predictions is lower than that of annual mean value.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.02a
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• pp.29-32
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• 2007

Damages induced typhoons have been increased and super-typhoons have occurred frequently. In our study, we propose a storm risk assessment technique based on CFD for the industrial structures and equipment located in the coastal regions. Inflow wind speeds are obtained through the information of geography and meteorology in considering regions before pressures of wind-environment and structures corresponding to different winds are calculated with wind speed multiplier and pressure coefficient. The results are applicable to evaluate a warning wind speed or regions vulnerable to debris in a considering region and to examine the safety of structures and their exteriors.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.241-253
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• 2015

In this paper we predict the track of typhoons using a Bayesian principal component regression model based on wind field data. Data is obtained at each time point and we applied the Bayesian principal component regression model to conduct the track prediction based on the time point. Based on regression model, we applied to variable selection prior and two kinds of prior distribution; normal and Laplace distribution. We show prediction results based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator and Median Probability Model (MPM) estimator. We analysis 8 typhoons in 2006 using data obtained from previous 6 years (2000-2005). We compare our prediction results with a moving-nest typhoon model (MTM) proposed by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We posit that is possible to predict the track of a typhoon accurately using only a statistical model and without a dynamical model.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.518-524
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• 2008

A three-dimensional primitive equation model (POM) and the buoy data (2900 N, 13500 E) from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for 27 typhoons between 1982 and 2000 are used to investigate the sea surface cooling (SSC) that accompanies typhoons in the northwestern Pacific. Observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) rapidly drop 0.6 to 4.3 C, and SSC continues for several weeks after the passage of a typhoon. The model, which covers most of the northwestern Pacific ($24^{\circ}N$ to $52^{\circ}N$), simulated Typhoon Abby over the tropical Pacific, and successfully reproduces many observed features, including the pattern of SST decrease, inertial oscillations, etc. The model accurately simulated the SSC process, suggesting that the cyclonic eddy with a radius of a few hundred kilometers that trailed Typhoon Abby plays an important role in SSC.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.55-64
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• 2008

In these days, not only many peoples were killed or wounded by seismic sea waves in Indonesia, but also our country is influenced by disasters such as tsunami and earthquake happened in sea areas adjacent to japan. The precaution against disaster and the rapid communication of disaster informations have become important. In order to minimize and prevent citizens' properties and lives from the loss or the damage by natural calamities suas storms, earthquakes and typhoons, the establishment of communication network for rapid information transmission and the development of system for preventing citizens from disasters should be performed.