• 복식
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• 제58권9호
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• pp.18-28
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to examine the Characteristics of Fashion Trends($1996{\sim}2005$) of Korea by the trend elements - style, fabric and color. The results of this study are as followed. During 10years, 'modern(18%)', 'elegant(11%)' and 'romantic(10%)' styles were shown in order, and colors of YR(17%), Y(14%), R(13%) and PB(11%) were shown in order. Considering tones, m(16%), d(12%), gy(11%) and s(10%) tones were in the order of frequency. In the fabric trend 'elegant(19%)', 'modern(14%)' and 'natural(14%)' images showed the high frequency. Since 2000's, style trends and fabric trends were subdivided, and the contrary images coexisted. The trend images of 'natural', 'retro', 'manish' and 'fun' were mainly used in fabric trend, and 'romantic' and 'classic' images were frequently used in style trend. The changes of trend images in style and fabric have been similar until the early 2000's but the cycle of trend of style became shorter than fabric trend. Therefore the cycle of fabric trend should be changed to be a short term and subdivided in company with style trend.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.149-162
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• 2023

The ℓ₁-trend filtering method is one of the most widely used methods for extracting underlying trends from noisy observations. Contrary to the Hodrick-Prescott filtering, the ℓ₁-trend filtering gives piecewise linear trends. One of the advantages of the ℓ₁-trend filtering is that it can be used for identifying change points in piecewise linear trends. However, since the ℓ₁-trend filtering employs total variation as a penalty term, estimated piecewise linear trends tend to be biased. In this study, we demonstrate the biasedness of the ℓ₁-trend filtering in trend level estimation and propose a two-stage bias-reduction procedure. The newly suggested estimator is based on the estimated change points of the ℓ₁-trend filtering. Numerical examples illustrate that the proposed method yields less biased estimates for piecewise linear trends.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.257-263
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• 2009

Focusing on the idea that the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) is equivalent to (1, 1) order ARMA model equation, new method of estimation of smoothing constant in exponential smoothing method is proposed before by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Theoretical solution was derived in a simple way. Mere application of ESM does not make good forecasting accuracy for the time series which has non-linear trend and/or trend by month. A new method to cope with this issue is required. In this paper, combining the trend removal method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. An approach to this method is executed in the following method. Trend removal by a linear function is applied to the original shipping data of consumer goods. The combination of linear and non-linear function is also introduced in trend removal. For the comparison, monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. The new method shows that it is useful especially for the time series that has stable characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend and also the case that has non-linear trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

• 한국융합학회논문지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.113-124
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• 2019

본 연구는 곡류 섭취수준과 식품과 영양소 섭취량간의 연관성을 확인하기 위해 40~65세 중국 중년여성 218명을 대상으로 조사한 융합연구이다. 데이터는 SPSS 22.0 프로그램을 이용하여 ${\chi}^2$ test, ANOVA, 상관분석과 Jonckheere-Terpstra 분석을 시행하였다. 연구결과, 대상자의 곡류군 섭취수준이 높을수록 아침결식(p for trend=0.000), 과식(p for trend=0.019) 및 외식(p for trend=0.003) 비율이 감소하였다. 대상자의 곡류군 섭취수준이 6~9단위인 경우, 에너지 1,000 kcal당 서류(p for trend=0.008), 육류(p for trend=0.043), 콩류(p for trend=0.020), 담색채소류(p for trend=0.015) 섭취량이 증가하였다. 따라서 중년여성들의 곡류군 섭취가 적절하게 이루어질 수 있도록 피드백을 통한 지속적인 교육과 개선방안을 위한 논의와 연구가 필요하다.

• 한국주거학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국주거학회 2008년 추계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.193-196
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• 2008

A purpose of this research is to suggest a housing planning on a high-rise apartment by searching a residence lifestyle based on a trend. In this rapid changing age, this will be a based data for regulating the future social housing lifestyle by understanding a whole of social fields. In addition, residence who will be lived in a high-rise apartment will be likely to get a better life environment. By researching a trend with politics, social culture, economy, scientific technique from 1970 to 2008, it is came out the most important three trend is feminism, naturalism and digital. And these three main trend continuously affect people‘ lifestyle. The flow of trend, lifestyle and the complex apartment has been related each other. There are relation between housing flow and trend. This researching data can be used for the future high-rise apartment market introducing trend and lifestyle concept.

• 한국실내디자인학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국실내디자인학회 2004년도 추계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.169-172
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• 2004

The purpose of this study was to identify the searching method and application of intoner design trend of interior designer. The questionnaire survey were used. The subjects of questionnaire survey were 50 interior designers in 6 interior design firms. Frequency, percentage, and cross-tab were used for data analysis. The major results were as follows. 1) Interior designers thought that consumers visiting at apartment model house were concerned about interior design trend and aware of interior design reflected trend. So interior designer gave expression to interior design trend. And they needed information about interior design trend and consumer's interior design preference. 2) Interior designers found interior design trend or consumer's preference from some exhibition or fair, journal, and internet materials. 3) Interior design trend was mainly expressed in living room design. And Interior designers utilized finishing material and color in expression of interior design trend.

• 한국의류산업학회지
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.926-935
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• 2008

The field of textile and fashion is regard to be sensitive to trend, however, the professional fashion information planning company for trend forecasting has not settled down in Korea. This study was designed to propose systemizing for fashion trend information planning in domestic fashion information service market. The empirical research was conducted by analysing in-depth interview data and news-scrap contents about each fashion information planning company. The result are as follows; First, fashion information service showed a little difference according to the type of fashion information companies, but they provided not only general fashion trends but also external market environmental information, survey-based consumer information and various segmented market research reports including academic information. Second, the fashion information planning process is largely divided into 3 stages; trend analysis, trend forecasting, trend application. The trend application step is the stage which connects the fashion information service industry to the fashion business. Thirdly, as a result of the competitive power evaluation for fashion information planning, the domestic fashion information planning companies came to reveal the fact that the possibility of carrying out and information analysis power were weak, however, how to present trend information had a relatively competitive. Consequently, this study is expected to play a role in understanding the importance of fashion trend information, and further ahead it would be helpful to organize the curriculum of fashion information planning subject in order to educate the future fashion executives.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.159-172
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• 2017

비관측요인(unobserved-component)모형을 이용한 GDP의 추세-순환요인 분해에서, 통상적으로 추세는 확률보행 과정을 갖는 것으로 가정된다. 본 연구는 추세를 ARIMA 과정으로 표현하는 경우, GDP 변동에서 갖는 추세요인의 의미가 어떻게 달라지는가를 살펴보고, GDP에 대한 예측력이 개선될 수 있는가의 여부를 미국의 데이터를 이용하여 실증적으로 분석하였다. 모형은 GDP만의 단일변수모형과 물가를 포함하는 2변수모형의 두 가지를 고려하여 설정하였으며, 모형 추정은 비관측요인모형을 상태-공간모형으로 전환한 후 칼만 필터(Kalman filter)를 이용한 최대우도추정법을 사용하였다. GDP에 대한 예측은 축차적 추정(recursive estimation)을 이용한 동적 표본외예측(dynamic out-of-sample) 방식을 사용하였으며, 예측력 비교결과에 대한 검정은 Diebold-Mariano 검정을 이용하였다. 분석 결과는 첫째, 모형의 추정결과에서 ARIMA 추세의 계수가 통계적으로 유의적인 값을 가지며, 둘째, ARIMA 추세 모형이 확률보행 추세 모형보다 GDP 변동의 분산 및 자기 상관성(autocorrelation)을 보다 잘 설명하며, 셋째, 예측력에서 단일변수보다는 2변수모형의 예측력이 그리고 확률보행 추세보다는 ARIMA 추세를 갖는 모형의 예측력이 통계적으로 유의하게 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과들은 GDP 추세-순환 요인 분해에서 추세를 ARIMA 과정으로 표현하는 것이 보다 타당하다는 것을 시사하고 있다.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제9권10호
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• pp.83-89
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• 2018

Purpose - The purpose of this study examines when the optimism impact on financial asset price forecasting and the boundary condition of optimism in the financial asset price forecasting. People generally tend to optimistically forecast their future. Optimism is a nature of human beings and optimistic forecasting observed in daily life. But is it always observed in financial asset price forecasting? In this study, two factors were focused on considering whether the optimism that people have applied to predicting future performance of financial investment products (e.g., mutual fund). First, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied depending on the direction of the prior price trend. Second, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied according to the forecast period by dividing the future forecasted by people into three time horizon based on forecast period. Research design, data, and methodology - 2 (prior price trend: rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) × 3 (forecast time horizon: short term vs medium term vs long term) experimental design was used. Prior price trend was used between subject and forecast time horizon was used within subject design. 169 undergraduate students participated in the experiment. χ² analysis was used. In this study, prior price trend divided into two types: rising-up trend versus falling-down trend. Forecast time horizon divided into three types: short term (after one month), medium term (after one year), and long term (after five years). Results - Optimistic price forecasting and boundary condition was found. Participants who were exposed to falling-down trend did not make optimistic predictions in the short term, but over time they tended to be more optimistic about the future in the medium term and long term. However, participants who were exposed to rising-up trend were over-optimistic in the short term, but over time, less optimistic in the medium and long term. Optimistic price forecasting was found when participants forecasted in the long term. Exposure to prior price trends (rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) was a boundary condition of optimistic price forecasting. Conclusions - The results indicated that individuals were more likely to be impacted by prior price tends in the short term time horizon, while being optimistic in the long term time horizon.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2017년도 학술발표회
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• pp.424-424
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• 2017

Several studies of the world have analyzed the regional rainfall trends in large data sets. However, it reported that the long-term behavior of rainfall was different on spatial and temporal scales. The objective of this study is to determine the local trends of rainfall indices in the Yom River Basin, Thailand. The rainfall indices consist of the annual total precipitation (PRCTPOP), number of heavy rainfall days ($R_{10}$), number of very heavy rainfall days ($R_{20}$), consecutive of dry days (CDD), consecutive of wet days (CWD), daily maximum rainfall ($R_{x1}$), five-days maximum rainfall ($R_{x5}$), and total of annual rainy day ($R_{annual}$). The rainfall data from twelve hydrological stations during the period 1965-2015 were used to analysis rainfall trend. The Mann-Kendall test, which is non-parametric test was adopted to detect trend at 95 percent confident level. The results of these data were found that there is only one station an increasing significantly trend in PRCTPOP index. CWD, which the index is expresses longest annual wet days, was exhibited significant negative trend in three locations. Meanwhile, the significant positive trend of CDD that represents longest annual dry spell was exhibited four locations. Three out of thirteen stations had significant decreasing trend in $R_{annual}$ index. In contrast, there is a station statistically significant increasing trend. The analysis of $R_{x1}$ was showed a station significant decreasing trend at located in the middle of basin, while the $R_{x5}$ of the most locations an insignificant decreasing trend. The heavy rainfall index indicated significant decreasing trend in two rainfall stations, whereas was not notice the increase or decrease trends in very heavy rainfall index. The results of this study suggest that the trend signal in the Yom River Basin in the half twentieth century showed the decreasing tendency in both of intensity and frequency of rainfall.