• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.111-118
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• 2018

Korea is facing a surge in the aging population, showing that population aged 65 and above will be accounted for 42.5% of the total population in 2065 with the emphasis on the over-80 population consisting of 19.2%. In response to this abrupt change in population structure, the number of traffic fatality accident referring to older driver as aged 65+ years had been increasing from 605 fatalities in 2011 to 815 fatalities in 2015 resulting in increases in 34.7% in oppose to happening to decreases in 17.2% about non-older driver. With Logit analysis based on Newton-Raphson algorithm utilizing older driver's traffic fatality data for the 2011-2015 years, it was found that the likelihood of an accident resulting in a fatality for super older driver aged 80 years and above considerably increased compared to other older driver with aging classification: 2.24 times for violation of traffic lane, 2.04 times for violation of U-turn, 1.48 times for violation of safety distance, 1.35 times for violation of obstacle of passing; also average annual increase of traffic accident cost related to super older driver was fairly increased rather than other older driver groups. Hence, this study proposes that improving and amending transport safety system and Road Traffic Act for super older driver needs to be urgently in action about license management, safe driving education, etc. when considering the increase of over-80 population in the near future. Also, implementing a social agreement with all ages and social groups to apply with advanced driver assistance system for older driver groups will be able to become a critical factor to enhance safe driving over the face of the country.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.99-109
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• 2014

PURPOSES : Climbing lanes on expressways managed by the Korea Expressway Corporation (KEC) have been hot potatoes due to conflicts between slow-moving vehicles such as trucks and other vehicles at the merging section as well as the less popularity with the slow-moving vehicles. In order to resolve such problems, KEC has altered existing climbing lanes to passing-type climbing lanes in 1999. The new type of climbing lanes showed an apparent improvement in mobility. For example, the speeds of vehicles using both climbing lane and other lanes improved a lot. However, there has been no clear evidence about improved safety. METHODS : This research effort was initiated to evaluate the safety of the new passing-type climbing lanes using the comparison-group(CG) method based on three-year-long traffic accident data sets before and after the change, respectively. RESULTS : The passing-type climbing lanes showed twice increased traffic accidents even though the traffic accidents on old type climbing lanes increased 1.1% during the same periods. In addition, in-depth study, the merging area of the passing-type climbing lanes was found out to be the weakest section where 43.8% traffic accidents out of total traffic accidents happened. It is noted that the merging area of the old type climbing showed only 25.0% traffic accidents. CONCLUSIONS : The new passing-type climbing lanes were found to be weak in terms of safety when compared with the old type climbing lanes. Especially, the merging area should be improved to reduce the risk of traffic conflicts between slow-moving vehicles and other vehicles.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.96-101
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• 2009

In this study, a risk-appearance frequency evaluation model for railway level-crossing accidents is developed with the frequency estimation based on the accident history. It follows the worldwide common safety management approach and reflects the operation conditions and accident properties of the domestic railway system. The risk appearance frequency evaluation process contains a development of accident scenarios by defining the system configurations and functions, and a frequency estimation of hazardous events based on the accident history. The developed model is verified with the accident history during 5 years('03-'07) for 3 hazardous events: 'Being trapped in level crossing(Hl)', 'Crossing during warning signal(H2)' and 'Breaking through/detouring the barrier(H3)'. This risk appearance frequency evaluation model will be combined with a consequence evaluation model so as to offer full risk assessment for the railway accident. The accident risk assessment will contribute to improving the safety management of the railway system.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.36 no.3B
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• pp.248-253
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• 2011

Collision avoidance algorithm of vessels have been studied to avoid collision and grounding of a vessel due to human error. In this paper, We propose a collision avoidance algorithm using bayesian estimation theory for safety sailing and reduced risk of collision accident. We calculate collision risk for efficient collision avoidance using bayesian algorithm and determined the safest and most effective collision risk is predicted by using re-planned with re-evaluated collision risk in the future(t=t'). Others ship position is assumed to be informed from AIS. Experimental results show that we estimate the safest and most effective collision risk.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• v.1
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• pp.435-440
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• 2006

The Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum (RVSM), which is the reduced minimum from 2,000 ft to 1,000 ft at flight levels (FL) between 290 and FL410 inclusive, was implemented in 30 September 2005 within the Japanese domestic airspace. Prior to the implementation, safety assessment for the airspace in assumed RVSM environments was carried out. Some model parameter values of collision risk model were estimated using flight plan (progress) data and radar data. An estimate of vertical collision risk including operational risk was calculated using these together with given parameter values. The results obtained from this analysis are as follows. (1) Contribution of the vertical collision risk for the crossing routes is about 9 percents of the total technical risk. (2) The estimate of the collision risk is $4.1{\times}10^{-9}$ [fatal accidents / flight hour] and the value is smaller than a maximum allowable level of collision risk, i.e. $5{\times}10^{-9}$ [fatal accidents / flight hour], called the Target Level of Safety.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.167-175
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• 2020

The Two-fluid Model, proposed by Herman and Prigogine in 1979, is a macroscopic model for describing network operability in urban networks. Since the Two-fluid Model parameters change according to the traffic flow characteristics, it is necessary to identify the cause of flow change when analyzing the operability using the parameters. This study compared the crash risk according to rainfall using the Two-fluid Model parameters, and explained that the driving behavior affects the operability of the urban network. The results of the parameters estimation showed poor network operation under rainfall condition. The factors of drivers' crash risk perception model were calculated, and driving behavior was analyzed due to crash risk according to rainfall. In both the morning and evening, drivers tended to slow down their speeds to reduce the crash risk, because the risk on rainy days could be high when the speed was the same as on a sunny days. However, the crash risk was still higher on rainy days than sunny. In the future, it is necessary to analyze the relationship between the network operation and the crash risk in various networks and to improve both.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.13 no.7
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• pp.3244-3251
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• 2012

In the construction and operation of large marine structure, hazard risk analysis is one of important factors. Therefore, this paper investigates the hazard risk indexes and evaluates the risk level in the construction and operation of SFT on the basis of expert survey and Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Hazard risk is divided into natural hazard risk (earthquake, typhoon, tsunami, and ice collision) and human factor hazard risk (fire, explosion, traffic accident, ship or submarine collision). Also, the influence of hazard risk indexes on SFT was evaluated in tunnel tube, supporting system, ventilation tower, foundation, and connection part. As the hazard risk level of SFT is compared with those of bridge, underwater tunnel, and immersed tunnel, the intrinsic risk level of SFT was evaluated. Tsunami and earthquake had higher risk level in natural hazard risk, and the risk levels of fire and explosion were higher in human factor hazard risk. Hazard risk level of SFT was 1.4 times higher than immersed tunnel, and 3.2 times higher than bridge.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.47-53
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• 1987

Many studies are conducted to evaluate the risk of maneuvering ships in the congested harbours and narrow channels. These studies are very important for the prevention of sea traffic accidents in those sea areas. In this paper, the author carried out a series of observations on sea traffic condition of the vessels entering and leaving the harbour of CHUNG MU, in order to evaluate the risk of grounding, the margin and burden of route keeping maneuver of vessels proceeding along the fairway of this harbour. The results obtained are as follows: 1. The grounding risk indices for the east bound and west bound vessels at the middle part and western part of the fairway were higher than those of them at the eastern part. 2. The margin of route keeping maneuver in the fairway appeared to be the highest at the western part of the fairway for the east bound vessels, and the highest at the middle part for the west bound vessels, but the lowest at the western entrance for both of them. 3. The burden of route keeping maneuver in the fairway appeared to be the highest at the western part of the fairway for both of the east bound and west bound vessels, but the lowest at the eastern part for both of them. 4. The influence of maneuvering indices T' on the grounding risk indices appeared to be larger than that of maneuvering indices K' on them.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.1-1
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• 1987

Many studies are conducted to evaluate the risk of maneuvering ships in the congested harbours and narrow channels. These studies are very important for the prevention of sea traffic accidents in those sea areas. In this paper, the author carried out a series of observations on sea traffic condition of the vessels entering and leaving the harbour of CHUNG MU, in order to evaluate the risk of grounding, the margin and burden of route keeping maneuver of vessels proceeding along the fairway of this harbour. The results obtained are as follows: 1. The grounding risk indices for the east bound and west bound vessels at the middle part and western part of the fairway were higher than those of them at the eastern part. 2. The margin of route keeping maneuver in the fairway appeared to be the highest at the western part of the fairway for the east bound vessels, and the highest at the middle part for the west bound vessels, but the lowest at the western entrance for both of them. 3. The burden of route keeping maneuver in the fairway appeared to be the highest at the western part of the fairway for both of the east bound and west bound vessels, but the lowest at the eastern part for both of them. 4. The influence of maneuvering indices T' on the grounding risk indices appeared to be larger than that of maneuvering indices K' on them.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.610-618
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• 2013

The damaged district by flooding has been changed from mainly farmland to cities due to the weather phenomena which is different from the past. This has caused not only irreparable damage of people's lives and property but social infrastructures. There also exist serious damages such as isolation of drivers and traffic jam as the roads were flooded. In this study, we suggested a method to develop a flood risk index focused on not Si, Gun or Gu but roads. In addition, flood risk index in the roads just at the moment, when it rains quantitatively, will be provided by using real-time rainfall information provided by the Weather Center. Then it should be helpful to prevent people from being isolated by flooded roads in advance.