• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2007년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1931-1936
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• 2007

Demand forecasting for railroad traffic is fairly important to establish future policy and plan. The future demand of railroad traffic can be predicted by analyzing the demand of air, marine and bus traffic which influence the demand of railroad traffic. In this study, forecasting the demand of railroad traffic is implemented through neural network using the demand of air, marine and bus traffic. Estimate accuracy of the demand of railroad traffic was shown about 84% through neural net model proposed.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.47-57
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• 2016

PURPOSES : This study aims to examine the differences between the existing traffic demand forecasting method and the traffic demand forecasting method considering future regional development plans and new road construction and expansion plans using a four-step traffic demand forecast for a more objective and sophisticated national highway maintenance. This study ultimately aims to present future pavement deterioration and budget forecasting planning based on the examination. METHODS : This study used the latest data offered by the Korea Transport Data Base (KTDB) as the basic data for demand forecast. The analysis scope was set using the Daejeon Metropolitan City's O/D and network data. This study used a traffic demand program called TransCad, and performed a traffic assignment by vehicle type through the application of a user equilibrium-based multi-class assignment technique. This study forecasted future traffic demand by verifying whether or not a realistic traffic pattern was expressed similarly by undertaking a calibration process. This study performed a life cycle cost analysis based on traffic using the forecasted future demand or existing past pattern, or by assuming the constant traffic demand. The maintenance criteria were decided according to equivalent single axle loads (ESAL). The maintenance period in the concerned section was calculated in this study. This study also computed the maintenance costs using a construction method by applying the maintenance criteria considering the ESAL. The road user costs were calculated by using the user cost calculation logic applied to the Korean Pavement Management System, which is the existing study outcome. RESULTS : This study ascertained that the increase and decrease of traffic occurred in the concerned section according to the future development plans. Furthermore, there were differences from demand forecasting that did not consider the development plans. Realistic and accurate demand forecasting supported an optimized decision making that efficiently assigns maintenance costs, and can be used as very important basic information for maintenance decision making. CONCLUSIONS : Therefore, decision making for a more efficient and sophisticated road management than the method assuming future traffic can be expected to be the same as the existing pattern or steady traffic demand. The reflection of a reliable forecasting of the future traffic demand to life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) can be a very vital factor because many studies are generally performed without considering the future traffic demand or with an analysis through setting a scenario upon LCCA within a pavement management system.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.171-185
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• 2017

Purpose Recently, there has been an increase in attempts to analyze social phenomena, consumption trends, and consumption behavior through a vast amount of customer data such as web search traffic information and social buzz information in various fields such as flu prediction and real estate price prediction. Internet portal service providers such as google and naver are disclosing web search traffic information of online users as services such as google trends and naver trends. Academic and industry are paying attention to research on information search behavior and utilization of online users based on the web search traffic information. Although there are many studies predicting social phenomena, consumption trends, political polls, etc. based on web search traffic information, it is hard to find the research to explain and predict tourism demand and establish tourism policy using it. In this study, we try to use web search traffic information to explain the tourism demand for major cities in Gangwon-do, the representative tourist area in Korea, and to develop a nowcasting model for the demand. Design/methodology/approach In the first step, the literature review on travel demand and web search traffic was conducted in parallel in two directions. In the second stage, we conducted a qualitative research to confirm the information retrieval behavior of the traveler. In the next step, we extracted the representative tourist cities of Gangwon-do and confirmed which keywords were used for the search. In the fourth step, we collected tourist demand data to be used as a dependent variable and collected web search traffic information of each keyword to be used as an independent variable. In the fifth step, we set up a time series benchmark model, and added the web search traffic information to this model to confirm whether the prediction model improved. In the last stage, we analyze the prediction models that are finally selected as optimal and confirm whether the influence of the keywords on the prediction of travel demand. Findings This study has developed a tourism demand forecasting model of Gangwon-do, a representative tourist destination in Korea, by expanding and applying web search traffic information to tourism demand forecasting. We compared the existing time series model with the benchmarking model and confirmed the superiority of the proposed model. In addition, this study also confirms that web search traffic information has a positive correlation with travel demand and precedes it by one or two months, thereby asserting its suitability as a prediction model. Furthermore, by deriving search keywords that have a significant effect on tourism demand forecast for each city, representative characteristics of each region can be selected.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2010년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.769-774
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• 2010

KTX Introduced in korea have occurred enhanced services and reduced regional travel time. "Induced traffic" is defined in the traffic demand generated in new project. 'Induced traffic' compared to the Diversion Demand Survey and research on ways to quantify the situation, insufficient analysis of constant and long-term observations are needed to estimate the changes in demand. In this study, Induced traffic effects due to the opening of KTX for analysis survey to passengers by Railway and the scale factor induced traffic review.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제39권4호
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• pp.253-259
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• 2013

Investment scenarios in the transportation network design problem usually contain installation or expansion of multi-mode transportation links. When one applies the mode choice analysis and traffic assignment sequentially for each investment scenario, it is possible that the travel impedance used in the mode choice analysis is different from the user equilibrium cost of the traffic assignment step. Therefore, to estimate the travel impedance and mode choice accurately, one needs to develop a combined model for the mode choice and traffic assignment. In this paper, we derive the inverse demand and the excess demand functions for the multi-mode multinomial logit mode choice function and develop a combined model for the multi-mode variable demand traffic assignment problem. Using data from the regional O/D and network data provided by the KTDB, we compared the performance of the partial linearization algorithm with the Frank-Wolfe algorithm applied to the excess demand model and with the sequential heuristic procedures.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.139-147
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• 2008

1996년 천호대로 중앙버스전용차로가 시행된 이후 2008년 까지 8개 구간이 운영되고 있다. 그러나 중앙버스전용차로의 시행에 따른 직 간접적 영향권 내의 도로교통량 변화는 보고되지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 2004년 7월에 동시 개통된 3개 구간에 대한 사전 사후 도로교통량 변화를 분석하였다. 분석결과, 중앙버스전용차로 구간의 교통량은 중앙버스전용차로 개통 후(2004년 11월) 24.7%로 급격히 감소한 후, 개통 후 1년(2005년 11월) 1.4%로 안정화 된 것으로 분석되었다. 인접 우회도로 교통량은 개통 후(2004년 11월) 2.9% 감소한 후, 개통 후 1년(2005년 11월) 0.3%로 미비하게 증가하였다. 측정오차(${\pm}5%$)를 고려하면 중앙버스전용차로 교통수요는 안정화 단계에 들어섰으며, 자동차 수요가 인접지역으로 우회하기 보다는 타 수단으로 전환된 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.46-57
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• 2008

Since the 90's, Korean Air transport market has been more expanded because of economic growth, the construction of airport infrastructure, and the advent of low cost carrier. Especially, the air traffic demand in Busan metropolitan area has been increasing steadily. Therefore, in this paper, we developed a new forecasting model which could expect the future air traffic demand in Busan area. This model is developed by regression analysis using social-economic variables such as GRDP, income, and the number of people, and dummy variables, for instance, KTX opening, Japan economic depression, SARS and so on. Result from demand forecasting by this new model suggests that the new airport system is needed in order to sustain the increasing air traffic demand in Busan area.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.73-80
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• 2016

This study highlights the main effect of job demand, work shift, work environment and stressors on the railway traffic controller's health, and the moderating effect of work0life balance. The result of empirical analysis based on questionnaires received from 328 traffic controllers working at 10 railway operating companies indicates that job demand, work shift, work environment and stressors have significant effect on their health, among which stressors is a major factor. In the respect of moderating effect, WLB showed no significance except for job demand. This result implies that controller's health can not be enhanced through their individual family or leisure life. Therefore, effective countermeasures and policy to mitigate their health problems and heal their symptoms are urgent.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제33권5호
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• pp.2057-2067
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• 2013

기존의 포장관리를 위한 장래 교통수요의 추정에는 객관적인 방법에 의한 장래 교통수요의 추정이라기보다는 과거 추세(trends)나 분석가의 주관적인 판단에 의해 이루어졌다고 할 수 있으며, 새로운 도로의 신설 및 우회도로의 계획 등 대상 지역의 장래 도로 및 지역개발 계획을 전혀 고려하지 못한 교통수요의 추정이 이루어졌다고 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 보다 객관적이며 정도 높은 국도의 유지관리를 위한 의사결정지원시스템(decision-making support system)의 구축을 위한 기초연구로써 장래 포장의 공용성에 큰 영향을 미치는 장기 교통수요 예측의 중요성을 살펴보고 기존 교통수요 추정 방식과의 비교를 위한 기준(baseline) 수요를 산정하기 위해 EMME(Equilibre multimodal, Multimodal Equilibrium)를 이용하여 4단계 교통수요 추정 방법에 따라 장래 교통수요를 예측하는 방안을 제시하였다. 사례연구를 위해 본 연구에서는 대전지방국토관리청 관할의 일부 지역을 대상으로 교통수요 추정방안별 비교를 수행하였으며, 기존의 수요추정 방법과 본 연구에서 제시한 장래 지역개발계획과 도로의 신설 및 확장계획 등을 고려한 교통수요 추정방법과는 교통량의 수요뿐만 아니라 관리자비용 및 이용자비용의 수준에도 큰 괴리가 있음을 확인하였다.

• 대한교통학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한교통학회 2000년도 제37회 학술발표회논문집
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• pp.89-115
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• 2000

Traffic signal setting policies and traffic assignment procedures are mutually dependent. The combined signal control and traffic assignment problem deals with this interaction. With the total travel time minimization objective, gradient based local search methods are implemented. Deterministic user equilibrium is the selected user route choice rule, Webster's delay curve is the link performance function, and green time per cycle ratios are decision variables. Three implemented solution codes resulting in six variations include intersections operating under multiphase operation with overlapping traffic movements. For reference, the iterative approach is also coded and all codes are tested in four example networks at five demand levels. The results show the numerical gradient estimation procedure performs best although the simplified local searches show reducing the large network computational burden. Demand level as well as network size affects the relative performance of the local and iterative approaches. As demand level becomes higher, (1) in the small network, the local search tends to outperform the iterative search and (2) in the large network, vice versa.