• 제목/요약/키워드: time-varying risk

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Worldwide national intervention of developmental screening programs in infant and early childhood

  • Kim, Seunghyo
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.65 no.1
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    • pp.10-20
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    • 2022
  • The prevalence of developmental disabilities is increasing worldwide over time. Developmental issues in infancy or early childhood may cause learning difficulties or behavioral problem in school age, further adversely affecting adolescent quality of life, which finally lead to low socioeconomic status in family, increase in medical expenses, and other relevant issues in various ways. Early childhood has brain plasticity, which means there is a high chance of recovering from developmental issues by early detection and timely intervention. Pediatricians are placed an ideal position to meet with young children till 6 years of age, of which age range is the time applicable to early intervention. Determining child's developmental status can be made by 2 pathways such as developmental surveillance and developmental screening tests. For better results, pediatricians should update their knowledge about developmental issues, risk factors, and screening techniques through varying educational program or other relevant educating materials. This paper will update reports on the prevalence of developmental disabilities and review the recent results of the Korean developmental screening test and discuss relevant issues. Finally, it will be addressed the pediatrician's role in early detecting developmental issues and timely intervention.

Earnings Variability and Capital Market Opening (자본시장 개방과 소득 변동성)

  • Kim, Dae Il
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-39
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    • 2006
  • This paper documents the increase in earnings variability (or earnings risk) during the 1990s in Korea, and investigates whether it can be accounted for by capital market opening. The variances of transitory and permanent innovations in earnings are estimated from repeated cross-section data using a simple econometric framework. The increasing time-series pattern of earnings risk among men follows the increased foreign capital presence reasonably well, but the supporting cross-sectional evidence for a causal relationship between the two is weak. However, foreign direct investment (FDI) is found to have had some non-neutral effects on workers of varying skills in such a way that transitory earnings risk of less-skilled workers relatively increased with FDI. To the extent that transitory innovations are not fully insured, this widening effect of FDI on earnings risk gap may have contributed to widening welfare gap between skilled and unskilled workers in Korea, at least in terms of "risks."

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A Study on the Effects of Export in the Change on Trade Enviroment of Korea-EU (한.EU간 통상환경변화가 수출에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Chang-Yeoul;Choi, Hyuk-Jun
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.269-286
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    • 2005
  • The exchange rate volatility has been increased since the time when the floating exchange rate system was introduced in Korea. As a result, the increase of the exchange rate volatility raised the risk in international trades in Korea. The purpose of this study in to study the feature of exchange rate volatility and the main sources of its increase and to confirm whether the exchange rate volatility influence export volume and price of Korea. In the first place, I measured exchange rate volatility with two methods. The one is descriptive statistic method such as the width of daily exchange rate fluctuation and the rate of exchange rate devaluation. The other is the time varying conditional variance of exchange rate. Then, I studied the sources of exchange rate volatility. In the second place, I defined the exchange rate volatility as the time varying conditional variance and estimated it by using elastic a approach model which shows exchange rate is affected by itself and its conditional variance, I estimated its effects on export volumes and prices of electric home appliances, information & communication equal and semi-conductor. The result of this study is as follows. With presumed result EU and Korea because is not the goods which is to substantial competition relationship, The effect where the relative value change of presumed result expression anger and the dollar of import and export function goes mad to the import and export of Korea the income compared to is to export and it is appearing a lot. The EU goods is sold more expensively the Korean goods than from about length being caused by American market of the dollar and the balance of trade of Korea is visible like being visible the improvement of single breadth. Because the relationship of competition is weak but substantially there is to a short term and expression - the effect where the dollar rate fluctuation is big in Korean trade there is a possibility of saying that widely known it is not.

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Asymmetric volatility models with non-zero origin shifted from zero : Proposal and application (원점이 이동한 비대칭-변동성 모형의 제안 및 응용)

  • Ye Jin Lee;Sun Young Hwang;Sung Duck Lee
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.561-571
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    • 2023
  • Volatility of a time series is defined as the conditional variance on the past information. In particular, for financial time series, volatility is regarded as a time-varying measure of risk for the financial series. To capture the intrinsic asymmetry in the risk of financial series, various asymmetric volatility processes including threshold-ARCH (TARCH, for short) have been proposed in the literature (see, for instance, Choi et al., 2012). This paper proposes a volatility function featuring non-zero origin in which the origin of the volatility is shifted from the zero and therefore the resulting volatility function is certainly asymmetric around zero and achieves the minimum at a non-zero (rather than zero) point. To validate the proposed volatility function, we analyze the Korea stock prices index (KOSPI) time series during the Covid-19 pandemic period for which origin shift to the left of the zero in volatility is shown to be apparent using the minimum AIC as well as via parametric bootstrap verification.

Development of a Non-contact Input System Based on User's Gaze-Tracking and Analysis of Input Factors

  • Jiyoung LIM;Seonjae LEE;Junbeom KIM;Yunseo KIM;Hae-Duck Joshua JEONG
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2023
  • As mobile devices such as smartphones, tablets, and kiosks become increasingly prevalent, there is growing interest in developing alternative input systems in addition to traditional tools such as keyboards and mouses. Many people use their own bodies as a pointer to enter simple information on a mobile device. However, methods using the body have limitations due to psychological factors that make the contact method unstable, especially during a pandemic, and the risk of shoulder surfing attacks. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simple information input system that utilizes gaze-tracking technology to input passwords and control web surfing using only non-contact gaze. Our proposed system is designed to recognize information input when the user stares at a specific location on the screen in real-time, using intelligent gaze-tracking technology. We present an analysis of the relationship between the gaze input box, gaze time, and average input time, and report experimental results on the effects of varying the size of the gaze input box and gaze time required to achieve 100% accuracy in inputting information. Through this paper, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our system in mitigating the challenges of contact-based input methods, and providing a non-contact alternative that is both secure and convenient.

Effects of Operational Condition and Sea States on Wave-Induced Bending Moments of Large Merchant Vessels (운항조건 및 해상상태가 대형 화물선의 파랑 중 굽힘모멘트에 미치는 영향)

  • 김동문;백점기
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.60-67
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    • 2003
  • For risk or reliability assessment of ship structures against particular hazardous situations such as total loss or sinking due to hull girder collapse, the short-term based response analysis rather than the long-term response analysis is required to determine wave-induced bending moments when the ship encounters a storm of specific duration and with a specified small encounter probability. In the present study, the effects of operational condition and sea states on wave-induced bending moments of large merchant vessels are investigated. A series of the short-term response analyses for a hypothetical VLCC and a Capesize bulk carrier (CSBC) are carried out with varying operational condition and sea states which include ship speed, significant wave height and wave persistence time, using the linear-strip theory based program ABS/SHIPMOTION and the MIT sea-keeping tables. The computed results are also compared with the IACS design formula predictions. The results and insights developed from the present study are summarized.

The Risk of Colorectal Cancer After Cholecystectomy or Appendectomy: A Population-based Cohort Study in Korea

  • Lee, Joonki;Choe, Sunho;Park, Ji Won;Jeong, Seung-Yong;Shin, Aesun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.281-288
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: We investigated the association between cholecystectomy or appendectomy and the subsequent risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the Korean population. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted with the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort of Korea; this sample was followed up from January 1, 2002, until the date of CRC incidence, loss to follow-up, or December 31, 2015. The exposure status of cholecystectomy and appendectomy was treated as a time-varying covariate. The calculated risk of CRC was stratified by follow-up period, and the association between these surgical procedures and CRC was investigated by a Cox regression model applying appropriate lag periods. Results: A total of 707 663 individuals were identified for analysis. The study population was followed up for an average of 13.66 years, and 4324 CRC cases were identified. The hazard ratio (HR) of CRC was elevated in the first year after cholecystectomy (HR, 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 2.89) and in the first year and 2-3 years after appendectomy (HR, 4.22; 95% CI, 2.87 to 6.20; HR, 2.34; 95% CI, 1.36 to 4.03, respectively). The HRs of CRC after applying 1 year of lag after cholecystectomy and 3 years of lag after appendectomy were 0.80 (95% CI, 0.57 to 1.13) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.51 to 1.16), respectively. Conclusions: The risk of CRC increased in the first year after cholecystectomy and appendectomy, implying the possibility of bias. When appropriate lag periods after surgery were applied, no association was found between cholecystectomy or appendectomy and CRC.

Hydrological drought risk assessment for climate change adaptation in South Korea (기후변화 적응을 위한 우리나라 수문학적 가뭄 위험도 평가)

  • Seo, Jungho;Chi, Haewon;Kim, Heey Jin;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.421-435
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    • 2022
  • As natural disasters have been increasing due to climate change, sustainable solutions are in need to alleviate the degree of drought hazard, assess and project the drought influence based on future climate change scenarios. In assessing drought risk, socio-economic factors of the region must be considered along with meteorological factors. This study categorized drought hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as three major components of drought risk according to the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk assessment framework, and selected indices for each component to quantify the drought risk in South Korea according to the mid-size basins. Combinations of climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways; SSP 1, SSP2 and SSP3) for the near future (2030-2050) ant the far future (2080-2099) were utilized in drought risk analysis, and results were compared with the historical data (1986-2005). In general, the drought risks for all scenarios shows large increases as time proceeds to the far furture. In addition, we analyzed the rank of drought hazard, exposure, vulnerability for drought risk, and each of their contribution. The results showed that the drought hazard is the most contributing component to the increase of drought risk in future and each basin shows varying contributing components. Finally, we suggested countermeasures for each basin according to future climate change scenarios, and thus this study provides made the basis for establishing drought management measures.

A Study of the Effects of Hard Landing on Aircraft Structure (Hard Landing이 항공기 구조물에 미치는 영향성 연구)

  • Oh, Yong-Kyu;Sim, Sang-Ki;Shin, Ki-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.805-811
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    • 2011
  • Aircraft MLG and wing structures have been recognized as fatigue critical structures and exposed to the risk of fatigue crack initiation and propagation. Furthermore, these structures are frequently subjected to serious dynamic loading condition during a Hard Landing which may lead to their failure. Especially, structural integrity of MLG and wing components is decreased as the flight time increased because of the fatigue damage accumulated on the aircraft. In this study, the effects of Hard Landing on the MLG and wing components of aging aircraft were evaluated by using numerical approach. To achieve the aim, a finite element model has been developed and simulations were conducted by varying the landing conditions. As a result, it was revealed that the high stress concentration phenomenon was occurred at the lower Side Brace of MLG. Thereby, the intensified inspection for the lower Side Brace should be considered to prevent unexpected aircraft mishap.

Research of operators and patients exposed to electromagnetic field in the hospital (병원에서의 환자, 의료진의 전자파 노출 실태 조사)

  • Ji, Hyo-Chul;Hong, Hyun-Ki;Kim, Sung-Woo;Lee, Ju-Hyung;Kim, Deok-Won
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2007.04a
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    • pp.70-72
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    • 2007
  • In this study, electromagnetic fields emitted from the various environment in the hospital were measured. Measurement spot was patients' head. To monitor how much magnetic fields are emitting from operation room, monitoring device was attached to 19 anesthesiologist and monitoring lasted 8 hours. We also took a measurement from various medical devices. Devices include ESWL, PET, MRI, CT, Gamma knife, X-ray, Angiogram, Echocardiogram, Upper GI and Linear Accelerator. Electromagnetic fields were measured from 10 spots from each of 5 patient waiting room. As a results, there were no places showing risk of high exposure. All the measurement values were below the reference levels for general public exposure to time varying electric and magnetic fields which is issued by ICNIRP.

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