• 제목/요약/키워드: time weighted average model

검색결과 83건 처리시간 0.031초

Prediction of the long-term deformation of high rockfill geostructures using a hybrid back-analysis method

  • Ming Xu;Dehai Jin
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제36권1호
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2024
  • It is important to make reasonable prediction about the long-term deformation of high rockfill geostructures. However, the deformation is usually underestimated using the rockfill parameters obtained from laboratory tests due to different size effects, which make it necessary to identify parameters from in-situ monitoring data. This paper proposes a novel hybrid back-analysis method with a modified objective function defined for the time-dependent back-analysis problem. The method consists of two stages. In the first stage, an improved weighted average method is proposed to quickly narrow the search region; while in the second stage, an adaptive response surface method is proposed to iteratively search for the satisfactory solution, with a technique that can adaptively consider the translation, contraction or expansion of the exploration region. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed hybrid back-analysis method is demonstrated by back-analyzing the long-term deformation of two high embankments constructed for airport runways, with the rockfills being modeled by a rheological model considering the influence of stress states on the creep behavior.

Effects of DEM Resolution on Hydrological Simulation in, BASINS-BSPF Modeling

  • Jeon, Ji-Hong;Ham, Jong-Hwa;Chun G. Yoon;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제44권7호
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2002
  • In this study, the effect of DEM (Digital Elevation Model) resolution (15m, 30m, 50m, 70m, 100m, 200m, 300m) on the hydrological simulation was examined using the BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Source) for the Heukcheon watershed (303.3 ㎢) data from 1998 to 1999. Generally, as the cell size of DEM increased, topographical changes were observed as the original range of elevation decreased. The processing time of watershed delineation and river network needed more time and effort on smaller cell size of DEM. The larger DEM demonstrated had some errors in the junction of river network which might affect on the simulation of water quantity and quality. The area weighted average watershed slope became milder but the length weighted average channel slope became steeper as the DEM size increased. DEM resolution affected substantially on the topographical parameter but less on the hydrological simulation. Considering processing time and accuracy on hydrological simulation, DEM grid size of 100m is recommended for this range of watershed size.

스위치 레벨 CMOS 지연시간 모델링과 파라미터 추출 (A Switch-Level CMOS Delay Time Modeling and Parameter Extraction)

  • 김경호;이영근;이상헌;박송배
    • 전자공학회논문지A
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    • 제28A권1호
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 1991
  • An effective and accurate delay time model is the key problem in the simulation and timing verification of CMOS logic circuits. We propose a semi-analytic CMOW delay time model taking into account the configuration ratio, the input waveform slope and the load capacitance. This model is based on the Schichman Hodges's DC equations and derived on the optimally weighted switching peak current. The parameters necessary for the model calculation are automatically determined from the program. The proposed model is computationally effective and the error is typically within 10% of the SPICEA results. Compared to the table RC model, the accuracy is inproved over two times in average.

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시간행동 행태을 이용한 영업용 운전자들의 이산화질소 개인 노출량 예측 (Estimation of Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide in Professional Drivers Using Time Activity Pattern)

  • 방용남;손부순;양원호;박종안;장봉기
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.20-26
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    • 2001
  • personal nitrogen dioxide(NO$_2$) exposures for 31 professional drivers were measured using passive sampler and time activity diary in Asan and Chunan area, and were estimated using time-weighted average model. Mean concentrations of driver’s indoor and outdoor were 24.7$\pm$10.7 ppb and 23.3$\pm$8.3 ppb, respectively with indoor/outdoor of 1.1. Mean personal NO$_2$ exposure was 30.3$\pm$9.7 ppb. Personal NO$_2$ exposures were strongly correlated with indoor car NO$_2$ levels ($R^2$=0.80) rather than residential indoor NO$_2$ level ($R^2$=0.55). and outdoor NO$_2$ level ($R^2$=0.50). The driver’s NO$_2$ exposure using LP-gas with 24.4$\pm$8.0 ppb were statistically different from those using diesel with 36.3$\pm$14.1 ppb(p<0.01). The effect of driver’s smoking for personal NO$_2$ exposure was not found. It was considered that the main NO$_2$in driver is transportation. Since drivers mostly spent their times in indoor and inside car, time-weighted average model could be used to estimated personal NO$_2$ exposure using time activity diary, Though we did not measure all microenvironments, the estimated personal NO$_2$ exposures with 26.9$\pm$10.2 ppb were statistically correlated with measured personal NO $_2$ exposures30.3$\pm$9.7 ppb ($R^2$=0.89). The mean and standard deviation of personal NO$_2$ exposure using Mote-Carlo simulation were 26.6$\pm$7.2 ppb.

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Multivariate GARCH and Its Application to Bivariate Time Series

  • Choi, M.S.;Park, J.A.;Hwang, S.Y.
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.915-925
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    • 2007
  • Multivariate GARCH has been useful to model dynamic relationships between volatilities arising from each component series of multivariate time series. Methodologies including EWMA(Exponentially weighted moving-average model), DVEC(Diagonal VEC model), BEKK and CCC(Constant conditional correlation model) models are comparatively reviewed for bivariate time series. In addition, these models are applied to evaluate VaR(Value at Risk) and to construct joint prediction region. To illustrate, bivariate stock prices data consisting of Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics are analysed.

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Decentralized Moving Average Filtering with Uncertainties

  • Song, Il Young
    • 센서학회지
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    • 제25권6호
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    • pp.418-422
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    • 2016
  • A filtering algorithm based on the decentralized moving average Kalman filter with uncertainties is proposed in this paper. The proposed filtering algorithm presented combines the Kalman filter with the moving average strategy. A decentralized fusion algorithm with the weighted sum structure is applied to the local moving average Kalman filters (LMAKFs) of different window lengths. The proposed algorithm has a parallel structure and allows parallel processing of observations. Hence, it is more reliable than the centralized algorithm when some sensors become faulty. Moreover, the choice of the moving average strategy makes the proposed algorithm robust against linear discrete-time dynamic model uncertainties. The derivation of the error cross-covariances between the LMAKFs is the key idea of studied. The application of the proposed decentralized fusion filter to dynamic systems within a multisensor environment demonstrates its high accuracy and computational efficiency.

Assessment of Personal Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide in Primary Schoolchildren

  • Cho Yong-Sung;Lee Jong-Tae;Kim Yoon-Shin
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.207-214
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    • 2006
  • This study was designed to assess the level of nitrogen dioxide from several microenvironments including inside the home, outdoors near the home, inside the school, outdoors near the school, and on the road for 42 primary schoolchildren during the month of December 2002 in Seoul, Korea. The average personal, indoor, outdoor $NO_2$ levels, and indoor/outdoor ratio were 45.08 ppb, 27.89 ppb, 30.96 ppb, and 0.89, respectively. The indoor $NO_2$ concentrations were significantly associated with the presence of a smoker with a gas stove. The estimated personal $NO_2$ exposure using time-weighted average equation of $34.64{\pm}5.29$ ppb was significantly lower than the measured personal exposure of $45.08{\pm}5.50$ ppb. Our results indicate that indoor $NO_2$ levels were associated with the presence of a smoker and a gas stove. Moreover, personal $NO_2$ exposure with a gas stove in the house was significantly higher than those without a gas stove.

시계열 분석을 이용한 가스사고 발생 예측 연구 (The Study of Prediction Model of Gas Accidents Using Time Series Analysis)

  • 이수경;허영택;신동일;송동우;김기성
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.8-16
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구에서는 국내에서 발생한 가스사고를 분석하여 가스사고의 건수예측모델에 대하여 제시하였다. 가스사고 건수를 예측하기 위하여 단순이동평균법(3,4,5기간), 가중이동평균법 및 지수평활법을 적용해 본 결과, 4기간 이동평균법과 가중이동평균법에 의한 모델의 평균오차제곱합이 44.4와 43으로 가장 정확성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 가스사고 발생건수 예측시스템을 개발함으로서 가스사고 예방활동에 적극 활용할 수 있을 것이다.

버스도착시간 추정모형의 신뢰도 향상방안 연구 (Improve the Reliability Measures of Bus Arrival Time Estimation Model)

  • 김지수;박범진;노창균;강원의
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.597-604
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 현재 국내 BIS에서 버스도착시간 안내를 위해 개별노선 단위로 산정되고 있는 정류소간 통행시간 기반의 버스도착시간 추정 모형의 한계점을 제시하고, 이를 극복하기 위한 방안을 제시하였다. 정류소간 운행시간을 기반으로 산출되는 버스도착시간정보의 특성을 이용하여 버스노선번호에 관계없이 버스정류소에 도착한 동일 구간을 운행하는 모든 버스의 정보를 순서대로 이용하여 버스도착시간을 추정하는 버스도착시간 추정모형을 제안하였다. 제안한 모형은 실제 버스운행정보를 수집하여 RMSE를 기준으로 검증을 실시하였으며, 분석결과 오차는 기존 모형 대비 최대 20%가 감소하였고 버스도착시간정보의 정확도와 직결될 수 있는 데이터 업데이트 주기는 절반수준으로 감소하였다. 이를 통해 버스도착시간의 급격한 증가나 감소, 동일한 구간을 운행하는 다른 노선의 도착예정시간 차이, 운행계획과 다르게 운행시의 정보제공 불가함 등의 문제가 해결될 것으로 기대된다.

다중모델적응추정방식을 이용한 강우-유출량의 실시간 예측 (Real time forecasting of rainfall-runoff using multiple model adaptive estimation)

  • 최선욱;김운해;김영철
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 1996년도 한국자동제어학술회의논문집(국내학술편); 포항공과대학교, 포항; 24-26 Oct. 1996
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    • pp.24-27
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    • 1996
  • The storage function method(SFM) is one of hydrologic flood routings which has been used most widely in Korea and Japan. This paper presents a storage function method using multiple model adaptive estimation(MMAE), in which a model set is generated by partitioning storage parameters over feasible range, and each storage function model is estimated, and then the weighted average of them is calculated. Finally, the future runoff is predicted in real time by means of observed data of water level at dam and rainfall. Simulation results applied to actual data show that the proposed method has much better performance than that of conventional SFM.

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