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http://dx.doi.org/10.7842/kigas.2014.18.1.8

The Study of Prediction Model of Gas Accidents Using Time Series Analysis  

Lee, Su-Kyung (Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National Univ. of Technology)
Hur, Young-Taeg (Korea Gas Safety Corporatio)
Shin, Dong-Il (Dept. of chemical Engineering, Myongji University)
Song, Dong-Woo (Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National Univ. of Technology)
Kim, Ki-Sung (Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National Univ. of Technology)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas / v.18, no.1, 2014 , pp. 8-16 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, the number of gas accidents prediction model was suggested by analyzing the gas accidents occurred in Korea. In order to predict the number of gas accidents, simple moving average method (3, 4, 5 period), weighted average method and exponential smoothing method were applied. Study results of the sum of mean-square error acquired by the models of moving average method for 4 periods and weighted moving average method showed the highest value of 44.4 and 43 respectively. By developing the number of gas accidents prediction model, it could be actively utilized for gas accident prevention activities.
Keywords
data mining; accident warning and prediction; meteorological data; gas accident data;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
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