Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.20 no.1
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- pp.35-48
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- 2014
According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.
Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na
The period at university is to make decision about getting an actual job. As our society develops rapidly and highly, jobs are diversified, subdivided, and specialized, and students' job preparation period is also getting longer and longer. This study analyzed the log data of college students to see how the various activities that college students experience inside and outside of school might have influences on employment. For this experiment, students' various activities were systematically classified, recorded as an activity data and were divided into six core competencies (Job reinforcement competency, Leadership & teamwork competency, Globalization competency, Organizational commitment competency, Job exploration competency, and Autonomous implementation competency). The effect of the six competency levels on the employment status (employed group, unemployed group) was analyzed. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the difference in level between the employed group and the unemployed group was significant for all of the six competencies, so it was possible to infer that the activities at the school are significant for employment. Next, in order to analyze the impact of the six competencies on the qualitative performance of employment, we had ANOVA analysis after dividing the each competency level into 2 groups (low and high group), and creating 6 groups by the range of first annual salary. Students with high levels of globalization capability, job search capability, and autonomous implementation capability were also found to belong to a higher annual salary group. The theoretical contributions of this study are as follows. First, it connects the competencies that can be extracted from the school experience with the competencies in the Human Resource Management field and adds job search competencies and autonomous implementation competencies which are required for university students to have their own successful career & life. Second, we have conducted this analysis with the competency data measured form actual activity and result data collected from the interview and research. Third, it analyzed not only quantitative performance (employment rate) but also qualitative performance (annual salary level). The practical use of this study is as follows. First, it can be a guide when establishing career development plans for college students. It is necessary to prepare for a job that can express one's strengths based on an analysis of the world of work and job, rather than having a no-strategy, unbalanced, or accumulating excessive specifications competition. Second, the person in charge of experience design for college students, at an organizations such as schools, businesses, local governments, and governments, can refer to the six competencies suggested in this study to for the user-useful experiences design that may motivate more participation. By doing so, one event may bring mutual benefits for both event designers and students. Third, in the era of digital transformation, the government's policy manager who envisions the balanced development of the country can make a policy in the direction of achieving the curiosity and energy of college students together with the balanced development of the country. A lot of manpower is required to start up novel platform services that have not existed before or to digitize existing analog products, services and corporate culture. The activities of current digital-generation-college-students are not only catalysts in all industries, but also for very benefit and necessary for college students by themselves for their own successful career development.
Objectives: The purpose was to identify the ingredients that are usually surveyed for assessing real prices and to present the demand for such surveys by nutrition teachers and dietitians for ingredients used by school foodservice. Methods: A survey was conducted online from December 2019 to January 2020. The survey questionnaire was distributed to 1,158 nutrition teachers and dietitians from elementary, middle, and high schools nationwide, and 439 (37.9% return rate) of the 1,158 were collected and used for data analysis. Results: The ingredients which were investigated for price realities directly by schools were industrial products in 228 schools (51.8%), fruits in 169 schools (38.4%), and specialty crops in 166 schools (37.7%). Moreover, nutrition teachers and dietitians in elementary, middle, and high schools searched in different ways for the real prices of ingredients. In elementary schools, there was a high demand for price information about grains, vegetables or root and tuber crops, special crops, fruits, eggs, fishes, and organic and locally grown ingredients by the School Foodservice Support Centers. Real price information about meats, industrial products, and pickled processed products were sought from the external specialized institutions. In addition, nutrition teachers and dietitians in middle and high schools wanted to obtain prices of all of the ingredients from the Offices of Education or the District Office of Education. Conclusions: Schools want to efficiently use the time or money spent on research for the real prices of ingredients through reputable organizations or to co-work with other nutrition teachers and dietitians. The results of this study will be useful in understanding the current status of the surveys carried out to determine the real price information for ingredients used by the school foodservice.
Information and communication and home appliance industries, which were one of South Korea's main industries, are gradually losing their export share as their export competitiveness is weakening. This study objectively analyzed export competitiveness and suggested export-promising countries in order to help South Korea's information communication and home appliance industries improve exports. In this study, network properties, centrality, and structural hole analysis were performed during network analysis to evaluate export competitiveness. In order to select promising export countries, we proposed a new variable that can take into account the characteristics of an already established International Trade Network (ITN), that is, the Global Value Chain (GVC), in addition to the existing economic factors. The conditional log-odds for individual links derived from the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) in the analysis of the cross-border trade network were assumed as a proxy variable that can indicate the export potential. In consideration of the possibility of ERGM linkage, a parametric approach and a non-parametric approach were used to recommend export-promising countries, respectively. In the parametric method, a regression analysis model was developed to predict the export value of the information and communication and home appliance industries in South Korea by additionally considering the link-specific characteristics of the network derived from the ERGM to the existing economic factors. Also, in the non-parametric approach, an abnormality detection algorithm based on the clustering method was used, and a promising export country was proposed as a method of finding outliers that deviate from two peers. According to the research results, the structural characteristic of the export network of the industry was a network with high transferability. Also, according to the centrality analysis result, South Korea's influence on exports was weak compared to its size, and the structural hole analysis result showed that export efficiency was weak. According to the model for recommending promising exporting countries proposed by this study, in parametric analysis, Iran, Ireland, North Macedonia, Angola, and Pakistan were promising exporting countries, and in nonparametric analysis, Qatar, Luxembourg, Ireland, North Macedonia and Pakistan were analyzed as promising exporting countries. There were differences in some countries in the two models. The results of this study revealed that the export competitiveness of South Korea's information and communication and home appliance industries in GVC was not high compared to the size of exports, and thus showed that exports could be further reduced. In addition, this study is meaningful in that it proposed a method to find promising export countries by considering GVC networks with other countries as a way to increase export competitiveness. This study showed that, from a policy point of view, the international trade network of the information communication and home appliance industries has an important mutual relationship, and although transferability is high, it may not be easily expanded to a three-party relationship. In addition, it was confirmed that South Korea's export competitiveness or status was lower than the export size ranking. This paper suggested that in order to improve the low out-degree centrality, it is necessary to increase exports to Italy or Poland, which had significantly higher in-degrees. In addition, we argued that in order to improve the centrality of out-closeness, it is necessary to increase exports to countries with particularly high in-closeness. In particular, it was analyzed that Morocco, UAE, Argentina, Russia, and Canada should pay attention as export countries. This study also provided practical implications for companies expecting to expand exports. The results of this study argue that companies expecting export expansion need to pay attention to countries with a relatively high potential for export expansion compared to the existing export volume by country. In particular, for companies that export daily necessities, countries that should pay attention to the population are presented, and for companies that export high-end or durable products, countries with high GDP, or purchasing power, relatively low exports are presented. Since the process and results of this study can be easily extended and applied to other industries, it is also expected to develop services that utilize the results of this study in the public sector.
The physiological and biochemical role of potassium for upland crops according to recent research reports and the nutritional status of potassium in Korea were reviewed. Since physical and chemical characteristics of potassium ion are different from those of sodium, potassium can not completely be replaced by sodium and replacement must be limited to minimum possible functional area. Specific roles of potassium seem to keep fine structure of biological membranes such as thylacoid membrane of chloroplast in the most efficient form and to be allosteric effector and conformation controller of various enzymes principally in carbohydrate and protein metabolism. Potassium is essential to improve the efficiency of phoro- and oxidative- phosphorylation and involve deeply in all energy required metabolisms especially synthesis of organic matter and their translocation. Potassium has many important, physiological functions such as maintenance of osmotic pressure and optimum hydration of cell colloids, consequently uptake and translocation of water resulting in higher water use efficiency and of better subcellular environment for various physiological and biochemical activities. Potassium affects uptake and translocation of mineral nutrients and quality of products. potassium itself in products may become a quality criteria due to potassium essentiality for human beings. Potassium uptake is greatly decreased by low temperature and controlled by unknown feed back mechanism of potassium in plants. Thus the luxury absorption should be reconsidered. Total potassium content of upland soil in Korea is about 3% but the exchangeable one is about 0.3 me/100g soil. All upland crops require much potassium probably due to freezing and cold weather and also due to wet damage and drought caused by uneven rainfall pattern. In barley, potassium should be high at just before freezing and just after thawing and move into grain from heading for higher yield. Use efficiency of potassium was 27% for barley and 58% in old uplands, 46% in newly opened hilly lands for soybean. Soybean plant showed potassium deficiency symptom in various fields especially in newly opened hilly lands. Potassium criteria for normal growth appear 2%
At the initial stage of Internet advertising, banner advertising came into fashion. As the Internet developed into a central part of daily lives and the competition in the on-line advertising market was getting fierce, there was not enough space for banner advertising, which rushed to portal sites only. All these factors was responsible for an upsurge in advertising prices. Consequently, the high-cost and low-efficiency problems with banner advertising were raised, which led to an emergence of keyword advertising as a new type of Internet advertising to replace its predecessor. In the beginning of 2000s, when Internet advertising came to be activated, display advertisement including banner advertising dominated the Net. However, display advertising showed signs of gradual decline, and registered minus growth in the year 2009, whereas keyword advertising showed rapid growth and started to outdo display advertising as of the year 2005. Keyword advertising refers to the advertising technique that exposes relevant advertisements on the top of research sites when one searches for a keyword. Instead of exposing advertisements to unspecified individuals like banner advertising, keyword advertising, or targeted advertising technique, shows advertisements only when customers search for a desired keyword so that only highly prospective customers are given a chance to see them. In this context, it is also referred to as search advertising. It is regarded as more aggressive advertising with a high hit rate than previous advertising in that, instead of the seller discovering customers and running an advertisement for them like TV, radios or banner advertising, it exposes advertisements to visiting customers. Keyword advertising makes it possible for a company to seek publicity on line simply by making use of a single word and to achieve a maximum of efficiency at a minimum cost. The strong point of keyword advertising is that customers are allowed to directly contact the products in question through its more efficient advertising when compared to the advertisements of mass media such as TV and radio, etc. The weak point of keyword advertising is that a company should have its advertisement registered on each and every portal site and finds it hard to exercise substantial supervision over its advertisement, there being a possibility of its advertising expenses exceeding its profits. Keyword advertising severs as the most appropriate methods of advertising for the sales and publicity of small and medium enterprises which are in need of a maximum of advertising effect at a low advertising cost. At present, keyword advertising is divided into CPC advertising and CPM advertising. The former is known as the most efficient technique, which is also referred to as advertising based on the meter rate system; A company is supposed to pay for the number of clicks on a searched keyword which users have searched. This is representatively adopted by Overture, Google's Adwords, Naver's Clickchoice, and Daum's Clicks, etc. CPM advertising is dependent upon the flat rate payment system, making a company pay for its advertisement on the basis of the number of exposure, not on the basis of the number of clicks. This method fixes a price for advertisement on the basis of 1,000-time exposure, and is mainly adopted by Naver's Timechoice, Daum's Speciallink, and Nate's Speedup, etc, At present, the CPC method is most frequently adopted. The weak point of the CPC method is that advertising cost can rise through constant clicks from the same IP. If a company makes good use of strategies for maximizing the strong points of keyword advertising and complementing its weak points, it is highly likely to turn its visitors into prospective customers. Accordingly, an advertiser should make an analysis of customers' behavior and approach them in a variety of ways, trying hard to find out what they want. With this in mind, her or she has to put multiple keywords into use when running for ads. When he or she first runs an ad, he or she should first give priority to which keyword to select. The advertiser should consider how many individuals using a search engine will click the keyword in question and how much money he or she has to pay for the advertisement. As the popular keywords that the users of search engines are frequently using are expensive in terms of a unit cost per click, the advertisers without much money for advertising at the initial phrase should pay attention to detailed keywords suitable to their budget. Detailed keywords are also referred to as peripheral keywords or extension keywords, which can be called a combination of major keywords. Most keywords are in the form of texts. The biggest strong point of text-based advertising is that it looks like search results, causing little antipathy to it. But it fails to attract much attention because of the fact that most keyword advertising is in the form of texts. Image-embedded advertising is easy to notice due to images, but it is exposed on the lower part of a web page and regarded as an advertisement, which leads to a low click through rate. However, its strong point is that its prices are lower than those of text-based advertising. If a company owns a logo or a product that is easy enough for people to recognize, the company is well advised to make good use of image-embedded advertising so as to attract Internet users' attention. Advertisers should make an analysis of their logos and examine customers' responses based on the events of sites in question and the composition of products as a vehicle for monitoring their behavior in detail. Besides, keyword advertising allows them to analyze the advertising effects of exposed keywords through the analysis of logos. The logo analysis refers to a close analysis of the current situation of a site by making an analysis of information about visitors on the basis of the analysis of the number of visitors and page view, and that of cookie values. It is in the log files generated through each Web server that a user's IP, used pages, the time when he or she uses it, and cookie values are stored. The log files contain a huge amount of data. As it is almost impossible to make a direct analysis of these log files, one is supposed to make an analysis of them by using solutions for a log analysis. The generic information that can be extracted from tools for each logo analysis includes the number of viewing the total pages, the number of average page view per day, the number of basic page view, the number of page view per visit, the total number of hits, the number of average hits per day, the number of hits per visit, the number of visits, the number of average visits per day, the net number of visitors, average visitors per day, one-time visitors, visitors who have come more than twice, and average using hours, etc. These sites are deemed to be useful for utilizing data for the analysis of the situation and current status of rival companies as well as benchmarking. As keyword advertising exposes advertisements exclusively on search-result pages, competition among advertisers attempting to preoccupy popular keywords is very fierce. Some portal sites keep on giving priority to the existing advertisers, whereas others provide chances to purchase keywords in question to all the advertisers after the advertising contract is over. If an advertiser tries to rely on keywords sensitive to seasons and timeliness in case of sites providing priority to the established advertisers, he or she may as well make a purchase of a vacant place for advertising lest he or she should miss appropriate timing for advertising. However, Naver doesn't provide priority to the existing advertisers as far as all the keyword advertisements are concerned. In this case, one can preoccupy keywords if he or she enters into a contract after confirming the contract period for advertising. This study is designed to take a look at marketing for keyword advertising and to present effective strategies for keyword advertising marketing. At present, the Korean CPC advertising market is virtually monopolized by Overture. Its strong points are that Overture is based on the CPC charging model and that advertisements are registered on the top of the most representative portal sites in Korea. These advantages serve as the most appropriate medium for small and medium enterprises to use. However, the CPC method of Overture has its weak points, too. That is, the CPC method is not the only perfect advertising model among the search advertisements in the on-line market. So it is absolutely necessary that small and medium enterprises including independent shopping malls should complement the weaknesses of the CPC method and make good use of strategies for maximizing its strengths so as to increase their sales and to create a point of contact with customers.
This study was conducted to help staff members of health centers manage personnel by examining the staff members' recognition level of organization structure of health centers, their motivation, their job satisfaction level and its related factors. Data were collected from 471 staff members of 14 health centers from March 3, 1999 to April 30, 1999. The results of this study are summarized as follows. In recognition levels of organization structure of health centers, the recognition level of necessity of discretion right was highest(3.55 points on the base of 5 points), while the recognition level of the location of decision making right was lowest(2.77 points). The general recognition of organization structure of health centers was 3.06 points, the suitability of division of duties was 3.05 points, and the optimum of manpower and budget was 2.93 points. The staff members' general recognition level of the organization structure appeared significantly higher in case of the groups of small and medium sized cities, above fifties, below high school graduate, above the sixth grade, public service experience of above 20 years, service period of below 2 years at present post, and average monthly salary of one million, eight hundred and ten thousand won. In the recognition level of the location of decision making right, the groups of big cities, male, the married, above the sixth grade, health and administration posts, average monthly salary of one million, three hundred and ten thousand won to one million, and eight hundred thousand won were significantly higher than the other groups. The recognition level of necessity of discretion right was higher in case of the groups of the twenties, the unmarried, above college graduate, nursing post, public service experience of below 5 years, service period of below 2 years at present post, and average monthly salary of below eight hundred thousand won. In the recognition level of suitability of division of duties, the groups of small and medium sized cities, the married, medical technicians, public service experience of above 20 years, and service period of below 4 years at present post were significantly higher than the other groups. In the staff members' recognition levels of organization management, the recognition level of opinion response when making decision was highest(2.92 points). The recognition level of rationality of the target amount establishment method was 2.88 points and the recognition level of personnel management was 2.63 points. The recognition level of personnel management was significantly higher in case of the groups of small and medium sized cities, the forties, above the sixth grade, medical technicians, public service experience of above 20 years, service period of below 2 years at present post, and average monthly salary of above one million, eight hundred and ten thousand won. In the recognition level of opinion response when making decision, the groups of small and medium sized cities, female, the eighth grade, health and administration posts, and service period of below 2 years at present post were higher than the other groups. The recognition level of rationality of the target amount establishment method was significantly higher in case of the groups of above fifties, below high school graduate, above the sixth grade, medical service post, and public service experience of 15 to 20 years. The factors significantly influencing sanitation were sex, education level, the period of public service experience, general recognition of organization structure, recognition of necessity of discretion right, recognition of suitability of division of duties, and recognition of opinion response when making decision. The factors which significantly influenced motivation were marital status, grade, recognition of the location of decision making right, recognition of necessity of discretion right, recognition of division of duties, recognition of opinion response when making decision, and sanitation. Sex, education level, recognition of suitability of division of duties, recognition of the target amount establishment method, and motivation influenced job satisfaction significantly. The factors significantly influencing organization culture were age, the period of public service experience, service period at present post, recognition of optimum of manpower and budget, recognition of suitability of division of duties, recognition of opinion response when making decision, and recognition of rationality of the target amount establishment method. In the coming days, the staff members' job satisfaction level must be increased through motivation and efficient conduct of duty must be accomplished through rational organization structure and management. Moreover, change of the staff members' consciousness and administrative system which are suitable for local autonomy system have to be established with increase of local residents' consciousness level and education level. Forming organization culture by reformative idea which fits the new era, public health service by the Community Health Act and health education service by the Health Promotion Act must be carried out efficiently. In doing so, financial support of central government and active efforts and concerns of local governments have to be devoted in order to get public health service in which peculiarity of the community is considered to be pursued well.
Today most developed countries provide modern medical care for most of the population. The rural area is the more neglected area in the medical and health field. In public health, the philosophy is that medical care for in maintenance of health is a basic right of man; it should not be discriminated against racial, environmental or financial situations. The deficiency of the medical care system, cultural bias, economic development, and ignorance of the residents about health care brought about the shortage of medical personnel and facilities on the rural areas. Moreover, medical students and physicians have been taught less about rural health care than about urban health care. Medical care, therefore, is insufficient in terms of health care personnel/and facilities in rural areas. Under such a situation, there is growing concern about the health problems among the rural population. The findings presented in this report are useful measures of the major health problems and even more important, as a guide to planning for improved medical care systems. It is hoped that findings from this study will be useful to those responsible for improving the delivery of health service for the rural population. Objectives: -to determine the health status of the residents in the rural areas. -to assess the rural population's needs in terms of health and medical care. -to make recommendations concerning improvement in the delivery of health and medical care for the rural population. Procedures: For the sampling design, the ideal would be to sample according to the proportion of the composition age-groups. As the health problems would be different by group, the sample was divided into 10 different age-groups. If the sample were allocated by proportion of composition of each age group, some age groups would be too small to estimate the health problem. The sample size of each age-group population was 100 people/age-groups. Personal interviews were conducted by specially trained medical students. The interviews dealt at length with current health status, medical care problems, utilization of medical services, medical cost paid for medical care and attitudes toward health. In addition, more information was gained from the public health field, including environmental sanitation, maternal and child health, family planning, tuberculosis control, and dental health. The sample Sample size was one fourth of total population: 1,438 The aged 10-14 years showed the largest number of 254 and the aged under one year was the smallest number of 81. Participation in examination Examination sessions usually were held in the morning every Tuesday, Wenesday, and Thursday for 3 hours at each session at the Namchun Health station. In general, the rate of participation in medical examination was low especially in ages between 10-19 years old. The highest rate of participation among are groups was the under one year age-group by 100 percent. The lowest use rate as low as 3% of those in the age-groups 10-19 years who are attending junior and senior high school in Taegu city so the time was not convenient for them to recieve examinations. Among the over 20 years old group, the rate of participation of female was higher than that of males. The results are as follows: A. Publie health problems Population: The number of pre-school age group who required child health was 724, among them infants numbered 96. Number of eligible women aged 15-44 years was 1,279, and women with husband who need maternal health numbered 700. The age-group of 65 years or older was 201 needed more health care and 65 of them had disabilities. (Table 2). Environmental sanitation: Seventy-nine percent of the residents relied upon well water as a primary source of dringking water. Ninety-three percent of the drinking water supply was rated as unfited quality for drinking. More than 90% of latrines were unhygienic, in structure design and sanitation (Table 15). Maternal and child health: Maternal health Average number of pregnancies of eligible women was 4 times. There was almost no pre- and post-natal care. Pregnancy wastage Still births was 33 per 1,000 live births. Spontaneous abortion was 156 per 1,000 live births. Induced abortion was 137 per 1,000 live births. Delivery condition More than 90 percent of deliveries were conducted at home. Attendants at last delivery were laymen by 76% and delivery without attendants was 14%. The rate of non-sterilized scissors as an instrument used to cut the umbilical cord was as high as 54% and of sickles was 14%. The rate of difficult delivery counted for 3%. Maternal death rate estimates about 35 per 10,000 live births. Child health Consultation rate for child health was almost non existant. In general, vaccination rate of children was low; vaccination rates for children aged 0-5 years with BCG and small pox were 34 and 28 percent respectively. The rate of vaccination with DPT and Polio were 23 and 25% respectively but the rate of the complete three injections were as low as 5 and 3% respectively. The number of dead children was 280 per 1,000 living children. Infants death rate was 45 per 1,000 live births (Table 16), Family planning: Approval rate of married women for family planning was as high as 86%. The rate of experiences of contraception in the past was 51%. The current rate of contraception was 37%. Willingness to use contraception in the future was as high as 86% (Table 17). Tuberculosis control: Number of registration patients at the health center currently was 25. The number indicates one eighth of estimate number of tuberculosis in the area. Number of discharged cases in the past accounted for 79 which showed 50% of active cases when discharged time. Rate of complete treatment among reasons of discharge in the past as low as 28%. There needs to be a follow up observation of the discharged cases (Table 18). Dental problems: More than 50% of the total population have at least one or more dental problems. (Table 19) B. Medical care problems Incidence rate: 1. In one month Incidence rate of medical care problems during one month was 19.6 percent. Among these health problems which required rest at home were 11.8 percent. The estimated number of patients in the total population is 1,206. The health problems reported most frequently in interviews during one month are: GI trouble, respiratory disease, neuralgia, skin disease, and communicable disease-in that order, The rate of health problems by age groups was highest in the 1-4 age group and in the 60 years or over age group, the lowest rate was the 10-14 year age group. In general, 0-29 year age group except the 1-4 year age group was low incidence rate. After 30 years old the rate of health problems increases gradually with aging. Eighty-three percent of health problems that occured during one month were solved by primary medical care procedures. Seventeen percent of health problems needed secondary care. Days rested at home because of illness during one month were 0.7 days per interviewee and 8days per patient and it accounts for 2,161 days for the total productive population in the area. (Table 20) 2. In a year The incidence rate of medical care problems during a year was 74.8%, among them health problems which required rest at home was 37 percent. Estimated number of patients in the total population during a year was 4,600. The health problems that occured most frequently among the interviewees during a year were: Cold (30%), GI trouble (18), respiratory disease (11), anemia (10), diarrhea (10), neuralgia (10), parasite disease (9), ENT (7), skin (7), headache (7), trauma (4), communicable disease (3), and circulatory disease (3) -in that order. The rate of health problems by age groups was highest in the infants group, thereafter the rate decreased gradually until the age 15-19 year age group which showed the lowest, and then the rate increased gradually with aging. Eighty-seven percent of health problems during a year were solved by primary medical care. Thirteen percent of them needed secondary medical care procedures. Days rested at home because of illness during a year were 16 days per interviewee and 44 days per patient and it accounted for 57,335 days lost among productive age group in the area (Table 21). Among those given medical examination, the conditions observed most frequently were respiratory disease, GI trouble, parasite disease, neuralgia, skin disease, trauma, tuberculosis, anemia, chronic obstructive lung disease, eye disorders-in that order (Table 22). The main health problems required secondary medical care are as fellows: (previous page). Utilization of medical care (treatment) The rate of treatment by various medical facilities for all health problems during one month was 73 percent. The rate of receiving of medical care of those who have health problems which required rest at home was 52% while the rate of those who have health problems which did not required rest was 61 percent (Table 23). The rate of receiving of medical care for all health problems during a year was 67 percent. The rate of receiving of medical care of those who have health problems which required rest at home was 82 percent while the rate of those who have health problems which did not required rest was as low as 53 percent (Table 24). Types of medical facilitied used were as follows: Hospital and clinics: 32-35% Herb clinics: 9-10% Drugstore: 53-58% Hospitalization Rate of hospitalization was 1.7% and the estimate number of hospitalizations among the total population during a year will be 107 persons (Table 25). Medical cost: Average medical cost per person during one month and a year were 171 and 2,800 won respectively. Average medical cost per patient during one month and a year were 1,109 and 3,740 won respectively. Average cost per household during a year was 15,800 won (Table 26, 27). Solution measures for health and medical care problems in rural area: A. Health problems which could be solved by paramedical workers such as nurses, midwives and aid nurses etc. are as follows: 1. Improvement of environmental sanitation 2. MCH except medical care problems 3. Family planning except surgical intervention 4. Tuberculosis control except diagnosis and prescription 5. Dental care except operational intervention 6. Health education for residents for improvement of utilization of medical facilities and early diagnosis etc. B. Medical care problems 1. Eighty-five percent of health problems could be solved by primary care procedures by general practitioners. 2. Fifteen percent of health problems need secondary medical procedures by a specialist. C. Medical cost Concidering the economic situation in rural area the amount of 2,062 won per residents during a year will be burdensome, so financial assistance is needed gorvernment to solve health and medical care problems for rural people.
There was much mass movement at many different mountain side of Peong Chang area in Kwangwon province by the influence of heavy rainfall through August/4 5, 1979. This study have done with the fact observed through the field survey and the information of the former researchers. The results are as follows; 1. Heavy rainfall area with more than 200mm per day and more than 60mm per hour as maximum rainfall during past 6 years, are distributed in the western side of the connecting line through Hoeng Seong, Weonju, Yeongdong, Muju, Namweon and Suncheon, and of the southern sea side of KeongsangNam-do. The heavy rain fan reason in the above area seems to be influenced by the mouktam range and moving direction of depression. 2. Peak point of heavy rainfall distribution always happen during the night time and seems to cause directly mass movement and serious damage. 3. Soil mass movement in Peongchang break out from the course sandy loam soil of granite group and the clay soil of lime stone and shale. Earth have moved along the surface of both bedrock or also the hardpan in case of the lime stone area. 4. Infiltration seems to be rapid on the both bedrock soil, the former is by the soil texture and the latter is by the crumb structure, high humus content and dense root system in surface soil. 5. Topographic pattern of mass movement spot is mostly the concave slope at the valley head or at the upper part of middle slope which run-off can easily come together from the surrounding slope. Soil profile of mass movement spot has wet soil in the lime stone area and loose or deep soil in the granite area. 6. Dominant slope degree of the soil mass movement site has steep slope, mostly, more than 25 degree and slope position that start mass movement is mostly in the range of the middle slope line to ridge line. 7. Vegetation status of soil mass movement area are mostly fire field agriculture area, it's abandoned grass land, young plantation made on the fire field poor forest of the erosion control site and non forest land composed mainly grass and shrubs. Very rare earth sliding can be found in the big tree stands but mostly from the thin soil site on the un-weatherd bed rock. 8. Dangerous condition of soil mass movement and land sliding seems to be estimated by the several environmental factors, namely, vegetation cover, slope degree, slope shape and position, bed rock and soil profile characteristics etc. 9. House break down are mostly happen on the following site, namely, colluvial cone and fan, talus, foot area of concave slope and small terrace or colluvial soil between valley and at the small river side Dangerous house from mass movement could be interpreted by the aerial photo with reference of the surrounding site condition of house and village in the mountain area 10. As a counter plan for the prevention of mass movement damage the technics of it's risk diagnosis and the field survey should be done, and the mass movement control of prevention should be started with the goverment support as soon as possible. The precautionary measures of house and village protection from mass movement damage should be made and executed and considered the protecting forest making around the house and village. 11. Dangerous or safety of house and village from mass movement and flood damage will be indentified and informed to the village people of mountain area through the forest extension work. 12. Clear cutting activity on the steep granite site, fire field making on the steep slope, house or village construction on the dangerous site and fuel collection in the eroded forest or the steep forest land should be surely prohibited When making the management plan the mass movement, soil erosion and flood problem will be concidered and also included the prevention method of disaster.