• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.357-379
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• 2011

경제환경의 글로벌화로 인해 외래종의 유입에 대한 관심이 증가하고 있다. 외래종은 동식물 개체 내지 미생물 수준에서 토착환경에 유입되어 침입종으로서의 유해한 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 본 논문은 확률적 확산과정을 이용하여 외래질병의 팬데믹 확률을 최소화하기 위한 최적제어 모형을 제시하며, 사회적 비용최소화 모형과 비교하였다. 실험적인 수치해석의 사례로 최근의 H1N1을 데이터를 이용하여 최적수준에 대한 비교정태 분석결과를 소개한다. 외래질병의 증가율이 높은 초기 시점부터 완전제어노력을 기울이는 것이 바람직하며, 사회적 비용을 최소화하는 접근방식보다는 보다 적극적인 초동대응 노력이 필요한 것으로 나타났다.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제44권5호
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• pp.651-676
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• 2022

Most of the experimental, theoretical, and numerical studies on the stability of functionally graded composites are deterministic, while there are full of complex interactions of variables with an inherently probabilistic nature, this paper presents a non-intrusive framework to investigate the stochastic nonlinear buckling behaviors of porous functionally graded cylindrical shells exposed to inevitable source-uncertainties. Euler-Lagrange equations are theoretically derived based on the three variable refined shear deformation theory. Closed-form solutions for the shell buckling loads are achieved by solving the deterministic eigenvalue problems. The analytical results are verified with numerical results obtained from finite element analyses that are conducted in the commercial software ABAQUS. The non-intrusive framework is completed by integrating the Monte Carlo simulation with the verified closed-form solutions. The convergence studies are performed to determine the effective pseudorandom draws of the simulation. The accuracy and efficiency of the framework are verified with statistical results that are obtained from the first and second-order perturbation techniques. Eleven cases of individual and compound uncertainties are investigated. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to figure out the five cases that have profound perturbative effects on the shell buckling loads. Complete probability distributions of the first three critical buckling loads are completely presented for each profound uncertainty case. The effects of the shell thickness, volume fraction index, and stochasticity degree on the shell buckling load under compound uncertainties are studied. There is a high probability that the shell has non-unique buckling modes in stochastic environments, which should be known for reliable analysis and design of engineering structures.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.21-36
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• 1979

Static muscle contractions when prolonged or frequently repeated result in discomfort, fatigue, and musculosketal injuries. An analytic and quantitative model has been developed in order to expand the working knowledge on muscle fatigue. In this paper, three Markov models of muscle fatigue are developed. These models are based on motor unit fatigue-recovery characteristics obtained from information on motor unit behavior as it relates to fatigue and graded exertions. Three successively more realistic models are developed that involve: (1) homogeneous motor units with intensity-dependent fatigue rates and state-independent recovery rates (the HMSI model); (2) homogeneous motor units, intensity-dependent fatigue rates and state-dependent recovery rates (the HMSD model); and (3) non-homogeneous motor units (i.e., Type S and Type F), intensity-dependent fatigue rates and state-dependent recovery rates (the HMSD model). The result indicate that a simple stochastic model provide a means to analyze the complex nature of muscle fatigue in sequential static exertions.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.91-99
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• 1993

The loads and resistances are random in nature. It Is thus necessary to consider these variabilities for more reasonable and reliable structural analysis. The purpose of the present study is to develop a stochastic finite element program which can analyze plane structures. The model requires only the means, standard deviations and distribution types of the load and resistance varualbes. This model can determine from the analysis the means and standard deviations of nodal displacement for all nodal points. The implemention results show good agreement at 10% significant level with the simulation results, if material properties and load conditions fallow the normal distribution.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 1996년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.95-102
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• 1996

In this study, a stochastic finite element model is proposed with a view to consider the uncertainty of physical properties of discontinuous rock mass in the analysis of structural behavior on underground caverns. In so doing, the LHS(Latin Hypercube sampling) technique has been applied to make up weak points of the Crude Monte Carlo technique. Concerning the effect of discontinuities, a joint finite element model is used that is known to be superior in explaining faults, cleavage, things of that nature. To reflect the uncertainty of material properties, the variables such as the the elastic modulus, the poisson's ratio, the joint shear stiffness, and the joint normal stiffness have been used, all of which can be applicable through normal distribution, log-normal distribution, and rectangulary uniform distribution. The validity of the newly developed computer program has been confirmed in terms of verification examples. And, the applicability of the program has been tested in terms of the analysis of the circular cavern in discontinuous rock mass.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 2000년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.717-720
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• 2000

Event-driven communication protocols such as CAN(Controller Area Network) have inherent packet delays due to the contention process for the use of network medium. These delays are stochastic in nature because most packets arrive at random time instants. The stochastic property of the delay adversely influences the control system's performance in terms of stability, responsiveness and steady-state error. Another problem for safety-critical application such as brake-by-wire systems is the reliability of the communication modules that can fail abruptly. This paper deals with two methods to overcome the above problems : (i) scheduling method that can maintain packet delays under some acceptable level, and (ii) redundancy management of communication modules that prescribes dual-redundancy modules' behavior when one of them fails.

• 한국공작기계학회논문집
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.28-34
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• 2004

In this study, new way of evaluating manufacturing cost Is organized and applied. In real manufacturing circumstances, tolerances of parts and assemblies are closely related to the cost. Several researches have been tried to identify the relations and set models. Moreover tolerances have influences on the maintenance of the manufacturing facilities. However Past researches have not considered the processing cost for the failed products. Therefore maintenance costs are represented as stochastic expressions, which include reliability of assembly and facilities. The stochastic nature of the maintenance cost is modeled and solved using Markov chain approach. Results show that this approach gives reliable estimations with remarkable computing time reduction.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.169-173
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• 2015

The linear scheduling method or line-of-balance (LOB) is a popular choice for projects that involve repetitive tasks during project execution. The method, however, produces deterministic schedule that does not convey a range of potential project outcomes under uncertainty. This results from the fact the basic scheduling parameters such as crew production rates are estimated to be deterministic based on single-point value inputs. The current linear scheduling technique, therefore, lacks the capability of reflecting the fluctuating nature of the project operation. In this paper the authors address the issue of how the variability of operation and production rates affects schedule outcomes and show a more realistic description of what might be a realistic picture of typical projects. The authors provide a solution by providing a more effective and comprehensive way of incorporating the crew performance variability using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The simulation outcomes are discussed in terms of how this stochastic approach can overcome the shortcomings of the conventional linear scheduling technique and provide optimum schedule solutions.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.184-191
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• 2005

In this article we study the feasibility of the Ant Colony Optimisation (ACO) algorithm for finding optimal Kanban allocations in Kanban systems represented by Stochastic Petri Net (SPN) models. Like other optimisation algorithms inspired by nature, such as Simulated Annealing/Genetic Algorithms, the ACO algorithm contains a large number of adjustable parameters. Thus we study the influence of the parameters on performance of ACO on the Kanban allocation problem, and identify the most important parameters.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제29권6호
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• pp.444-450
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• 1997

The current ASME code for reinforced concrete containment structures are not based on probability concepts. The stochastic nature of natural hazard or accidental loads and the variations of material properties require a probabilistic approach for a rational assessment of structural safety and performance. The paper develops design load factors for the serviceability limit state of reinforced concrete containment structures. The target limit state probability is determined and the load factors are calculated by the numerical analysis. Design load factors are proposed and carried out the reliability assessments.