• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제35권4호
• /
• pp.501-515
• /
• 2022

두꺼운 꼬리 분포와 레버리지효과 등의 금융시계열의 전형적인 특징에도 불구하고 기존 빈도론적 접근법에서는 이를 명시적으로 포착하는 확률변동성모형이 제시된 바 없다. 본 연구는 빈도론적 접근법에서 수익률 금융시계열의 두꺼운 꼬리 분포와 레버리지효과를 명시적으로 포착할 수 있는 근사적인 확률변동성모형 설정을 제시하고 이에 대한 Langrock 등 (2012)의 HMM근사를 이용한 최우추정을 제안한다. 본 연구는 다양한 모의실험과 실증분석을 통해 본 연구에서 제안하는 근사모형이 두꺼운 꼬리 분포와 레버리지효과를 정밀하고 효과적으로 추정할 수 있음을 보인다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
• /
• 제11권6호
• /
• pp.3273-3308
• /
• 2017

Building appropriate trust evaluation models is an important research issue for security guarantee in social networks. Most of the existing works usually consider the trust values at the current time slot, and model trust as the stochastic variable. However, in fact, trust evolves over time, and trust is a stochastic process. In this paper, we propose a novel time-variant stochastic trust evaluation (TSTE) model, which models trust over time and captures trust evolution by a stochastic process. Based on the proposed model, we derive the time-variant bound of untrustworthy probability, which provides stochastic trust guarantee. On one hand, the time-variant trust level of each node can be measured by our model. Meanwhile, by tolerating nodes with relatively poor performance, our model can effectively improve the node resource utilization rate. Numerical simulations are conducted to verify the accuracy and consistency of the analytical bounds on distinguishing misbehaved nodes from normal ones. Moreover, simulation results on social network dataset show the tradeoff between trust level and resource utilization rate, and verify that the successful transmission rate can be improved by our model.

• 경제분석
• /
• 제17권1호
• /
• pp.103-130
• /
• 2011

연구개발 및 정부의 연구개발지원의 성과에 대한 실증연구결과의 중요성에도 불구하고 연구개발투자의 생산성에 대한 영향을 분석하는 계량모형에 관한 논의는 상대적으로 활발하지 않았다. 본 연구에서는 연구개발투자의 생산성에 관한 기존 실증분석연구에서 활용한 계량모형들을 비교하여 모형의 장단점을 논하며 최근 발전된 관련 계량모형을 논함으로써 향후 응용연구에서 모형설정에 필요한 정보를 제공하고자 한다. 특히 기존 연구에서 가정하였던 연구개발투자와 생산성의 관계에 단조성을 완화하여 비단조성을 추정할 수 있는 모형을 소개하고 이를 기반으로 단조성 가정에 대한 검정방법을 논한다. 광공업통계DB에 있는 기업자료 및 OECD국가 패널자료에 논의한 계량모형을 적용함으로써 모형특성의 차이에 따른 추정결과의 차이점을 논한다.

• 한국경영과학회지
• /
• 제3권2호
• /
• pp.41-45
• /
• 1978

Duel models are frequently used in war game simulation. Both game-theoretic approach and stochastic approach are applied to duel situations in war game. Game-theoretic models are usually classified into three categories, noisy duel, silent duel, and duel of continuous firing. Stochastic duels are classified depending upon assumptions. In this paper formulation and a general solution for each model will be summarized.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국철도학회 2010년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.1222-1230
• /
• 2010

This study is about developing a transit assignment model on railway network. Current transit assignment models are mainly focused on road or urban transportation so that these models, for example, transit assignment model based on optimal strategy generates unrealistic transit assignment. Especially, since the advent of KTX, more passengers are using the transfer route containing KTX but most transit assignment models have a shortcoming that transfer is not considered or is overestimated. We present a new stochastic transit assignment model based on LOGIT considering transfer resistance.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
• /
• 제7권4호
• /
• pp.49-59
• /
• 2005

This paper is to propose various safety design models of tolerance specifications with different consumer requirements. In these models, tolerance specifications can be jointly determined by considering all the stochastic, economic, robust and engineering safety design factors with various characteristics of interest. In this paper, the proposed models are easily formulated for design engineers.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
• /
• 제20권1_2호
• /
• pp.119-132
• /
• 2006

This paper presents an approach for using right-truncated exponentially distributed random variables to model activity times in stochastic activity networks. The advantages of using the right-truncated exponential distribution are discussed. The moments of a project completion time using the proposed distribution are derived and compared with other estimated moments in literature.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 1991년도 춘계공동학술대회 발표논문 및 초록집; 전북대학교, 전주; 26-27 Apr. 1991
• /
• pp.147-159
• /
• 1991

Stochastic convexity(concvity) of a stochastic process is a very useful concept for various stochastic optimization problems. In this study we first establish stochastic convexity of a certain class of Markov additive processes through the probabilistic construction based on the sample path approach. A Markov additive process is obtained by integrating a functional of the underlying Markov process with respect to time, and its stochastic convexity can be utilized to provide efficient methods for optimal design or for optimal operation schedule of a wide range of stochastic systems. We also clarify the conditions for stochatic monotonicity of the Markov process, which is required for stochatic convexity of the Markov additive process. This result shows that stochastic convexity can be used for the analysis of probabilistic models based on birth and death processes, which have very wide application area. Finally we demonstrate the validity and usefulness of the theoretical results by developing efficient methods for the optimal replacement scheduling based on the stochastic convexity property.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
• /
• 제19권4호
• /
• pp.417-428
• /
• 2015

Although, in general, the random fluctuation of interest rates gives a limited impact on portfolio optimization, their stochastic nature may exert a significant influence on the process of selecting the proportions of various assets to be held in a given portfolio when the stochastic volatility of risky assets is considered. The stochastic volatility covers a variety of known models to fit in with diverse economic environments. In this paper, an optimal strategy for portfolio selection as well as the smoothness properties of the relevant value function are studied with the dynamic programming method under a market model of both stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates.

• 한국경영과학회지
• /
• 제16권1호
• /
• pp.76-88
• /
• 1991

Stochastic convexity (concavity) of a stochastic process is a very useful concept for various stochastic optimization problems. In this study we first establish stochastic convexity of a certain class of Markov additive processes through probabilistic construction based on the sample path approach. A Markov additive process is abtained by integrating a functional of the underlying Markov process with respect to time, and its stochastic convexity can be utilized to provide efficient methods for optimal design or optimal operation schedule wide range of stochastic systems. We also clarify the conditions for stochastic monotonicity of the Markov process. From the result it is shown that stachstic convexity can be used for the analysis of probabilitic models based on birth and death processes, which have very wide applications area. Finally we demonstrate the validity and usefulness of the theoretical results by developing efficient methods for the optimal replacement scheduling based on the stochastic convexity property.