• Title/Summary/Keyword: stochastic generation

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Waypoints Assignment and Trajectory Generation for Multi-UAV Systems

  • Lee, Jin-Wook;Kim, H.-Jin
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2007
  • Coordination of multiple UAVs is an essential technology for various applications in robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence. In general, it includes 1) waypoints assignment and 2) trajectory generation. In this paper, we propose a new method for this problem. First, we modify the concept of the standard visibility graph to greatly improve the optimality of the generated trajectories and reduce the computational complexity. Second, we propose an efficient stochastic approach using simulated annealing that assigns waypoints to each UAV from the constructed visibility graph. Third, we describe a method to detect collision between two UAVs. FinallY, we suggest an efficient method of controlling the velocity of UAVs using A* algorithm in order to avoid inter-UAV collision. We present simulation results from various environments that verify the effectiveness of our approach.

Drought Monitoring with Indexed Sequential Modeling

  • Kim, Hung-Soo;Yoon, Yong-Nam
    • Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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    • v.8
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    • pp.125-136
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    • 1997
  • The simulation techniques of hydrologic data series have develped for the purposes of the design of water resources system, the optimization of reservoir operation, and the design of flood control of reservoir, etc. While the stochastic models are usually used in most analysis of water resources fields for the generation of data sequences, the indexed sequential modeling (ISM) method based on generation of a series of overlapping short-term flow sequences directly from the historical record has been used for the data generation in the western USA since the early of 1980s. It was reported that the reliable results by ISM were obtained in practical applications. In this study, we generate annual inflow series at a location of Hong Cheon Dam site by using ISM method and autoregressive, order-1 model (AR(1)), and estimate the drought characteristics for the comparison aim between ISM and AR(1).

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Establishment of Zero-Accident Goal Period Based on Time Series Analysis of Accident Tendency (재해율 예측에 근거한 사업장별 무재해 목표시간의 설정)

  • 최승일;임현교
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.5-13
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    • 1992
  • If zero-accident movement is to be successful, the objective goal period should be surely obtainable, and much more in our country where frequency rate of injury are remarkably fluc-tuating. However In our country, as far as we know, no method to establish a reasonable zero-accident goal period is guaranteed. In thls paper, a new establishing-method of reasonable goal period for individual industry with considering recent accident trend is presented. A mathematical model for industrial accidents generation was analyzed, and a stochastic process model for the accident generation inteual was formulated. This model could tell the accident generation rate in future by understanding the accident tendency through the time-series analysis and search for the distribution of numbers of accidents and accident interval. On the basis of this, the forecasting method of goal achievement probability by the size and the establishment method of reasonable goal period were developed.

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An Efficient ATM Traffic Generator for the Real-Time Production of a Large Class of Complex Traffic Profiles

  • Loukatos Dimitrios;Sarakis Lambros;Kontovasilis Kimon;Mitrou Nikolas
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.54-64
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents an advanced architecture for a traffic generator capable of producing ATM traffic streams according to fully general semi-Markovian stochastic models. The architecture employs a basic traffic generator platform and enhances it by adding facilities for 'driving' the cell generation process through high-level specifications. Several kinds of optimization are employed for enhancing the software's speed to match the hardware's potential and for ensuring that traffic streams corresponding to models with a wide range of parameters can be generated efficiently and reliably. The proposed traffic generation procedure is highly modular. Thus, although this paper deals with ATM traffic, the main elements of the architecture can be used equally well for generating traffic loads on other networking technologies, IP-based networks being a notable example.

Generation of RMS Hazard-Compatible Artificial Earthquake Ground Motions (RMS 가속도에 의한 인공 지진파 생성기법)

  • Kim, Jin-Man
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2003
  • Due to the random nature of earthquake, the definition of the input excitation is one of the major uncertainties in the seismic response analysis. Furthermore, ground motions that correspond to a limited number of design parameters are not unique. Consequently, a brood range of response values can be obtained even with a set of motions, which match the same target parameters. The paper presents a practical probabilistic approach that can be used to systematically model the stochastic nature of seismic loading. The new approach is based on energy-based RMS hazard and takes account for the uncertainties of key ground motion parameters. The simulations indicate that the new RMS procedure is particularly useful for the rigorous probabilistic seismic response analysis, since the procedure is suitable for generation of large number of hazard-compatible motions, unlike the conventional procedure that aim to generate a small number of motions.

Chance-constrained Scheduling of Variable Generation and Energy Storage in a Multi-Timescale Framework

  • Tan, Wen-Shan;Abdullah, Md Pauzi;Shaaban, Mohamed
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.1709-1718
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents a hybrid stochastic deterministic multi-timescale scheduling (SDMS) approach for generation scheduling of a power grid. SDMS considers flexible resource options including conventional generation flexibility in a chance-constrained day-ahead scheduling optimization (DASO). The prime objective of the DASO is the minimization of the daily production cost in power systems with high penetration scenarios of variable generation. Furthermore, energy storage is scheduled in an hourly-ahead deterministic real-time scheduling optimization (RTSO). DASO simulation results are used as the base starting-point values in the hour-ahead online rolling RTSO with a 15-minute time interval. RTSO considers energy storage as another source of grid flexibility, to balance out the deviation between predicted and actual net load demand values. Numerical simulations, on the IEEE RTS test system with high wind penetration levels, indicate the effectiveness of the proposed SDMS framework for managing the grid flexibility to meet the net load demand, in both day-ahead and real-time timescales. Results also highlight the adequacy of the framework to adjust the scheduling, in real-time, to cope with large prediction errors of wind forecasting.

The Evaluation of Long-Term Generation Portfolio Considering Uncertainty (불확실성을 고려한 장기 전원 포트폴리오의 평가)

  • Chung, Jae-Woo;Min, Dai-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 2012
  • This paper presents a portfolio model for a long-term power generation mix problem. The proposed portfolio model evaluates generation mix by considering the tradeoffs between the expected cost for power generation and its variability. Unlike conventional portfolio models measuring variance, we introduce Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in designing the variability with aims to considering events that are enormously expensive but are rare such as nuclear power plant accidents. Further, we consider uncertainties associated with future electricity demand, fuel prices and their correlations, and capital costs for power plant investments. To obtain an objective generation by each energy source, we employ the sample average approximation method that approximates the stochastic objective function by taking the average of large sample values so that provides asymptotic convergence of optimal solutions. In addition, the method includes Monte Carlo simulation techniques in generating random samples from multivariate distributions. Applications of the proposed model and method are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with nuclear, coal, oil (OCGT), and LNG (CCGT) in South Korea.

A Study on the Rainfall Generation (In Two-dimensional Random Storm Fields) (강우의 모의발생에 관한 연구 (2차원 무작위 호우장에서))

  • Lee, Jea Hyoung;Soun, Jung Ho;Hwang, Man Ha
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 1991
  • In recent years, hydrologists have been interested in the radial spectrum and its estimation in two dimensional storm field to construct simulation model of the rainfall. This paper deals with the problem of transformation from the spectrum or isotropic covariance function to two dimensional random field. The extended turning band method for the generation of random field is applied to the problem using the line generation method of one dimensional stochastic process by G.Matheron. Examples of this generation is chosen in the random components of the multidimensional rainfall model suggested by Bras and are given with a comparison between theoretical and sample statistics. In this numerical experiments it is observed that first and second order statistics can be conserved. Also the example of moving storm simulation through Bras model is presented with the appropriate parameters and sample size.

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An Analytic Algotithm to Estimate Expected Generation and Marginal Costs (발전 및 한계비용의 해석적 추정법에 관한 연구)

  • 박영문;서보혁
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.31 no.7
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 1982
  • This paper derives the algorithm to estimate the operating cost, its marginal cost, and the reliability indices for the long term planning of power system. Treating the load duration curve and the system in the stochastic sense takes the place of the inverted load duration curve, effective load duration curve, and the numerical integration in the conventional methods. The time and accuracy of computation are substantially improved due to the fact that all expressions are represented by simple analytic form instead of the existing recursive form.

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Development and validation of poisson cluster stochastic rainfall generation web application across South Korea (포아송 클러스터 가상강우생성 웹 어플리케이션 개발 및 검증 - 우리나라에 대해서)

  • Han, Jaemoon;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.335-346
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    • 2016
  • This study produced the parameter maps of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) stochastic rainfall generation model across South Korea and developed and validated the web application that automates the process of rainfall generation based on the produced parameter maps. To achieve this purpose, three deferent sets of parameters of the MBLRP model were estimated at 62 ground gage locations in South Korea depending on the distinct purpose of the synthetic rainfall time series to be used in hydrologic modeling (i.e. flood modeling, runoff modeling, and general purpose). The estimated parameters were spatially interpolated using the Ordinary Kriging method to produce the parameter maps across South Korea. Then, a web application has been developed to automate the process of synthetic rainfall generation based on the parameter maps. For validation, the synthetic rainfall time series has been created using the web application and then various rainfall statistics including mean, variance, autocorrelation, probability of zero rainfall, extreme rainfall, extreme flood, and runoff depth were calculated, then these values were compared to the ones based on the observed rainfall time series. The mean, variance, autocorrelation, and probability of zero rainfall of the synthetic rainfall were similar to the ones of the observed rainfall while the extreme rainfall and extreme flood value were smaller than the ones derived from the observed rainfall by the degree of 16%-40%. Lastly, the web application developed in this study automates the entire process of synthetic rainfall generation, so we expect the application to be used in a variety of hydrologic analysis needing rainfall data.