• 제목/요약/키워드: stochastic effects

검색결과 249건 처리시간 0.024초

RCM 수립을 위해 발전설비의 고장확률을 고려한 확률론적 FMECA 평가 기법 (Application of FMECA with Stochastic Approach to Reliability-Centered Maintenance of Electric Power Plants in Korean Power Systems)

  • 주재명;이승혁;김진오;이효상
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2006년도 제37회 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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    • pp.196-197
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    • 2006
  • Preventive maintenance can avail the generation utilities to reduce cost and gain more profit in a competitive supply-side power market. So, it is necessary to perform reliability analysis on the systems in which reliability is essential. In this paper, RCM (Reliability -Centered Maintenance) analytical method is adopted using real historical failure data in Korean power plants. Therefore, the reliability -based Probability model for predicting the failures of components in the power plant is also established, and application to FMECA(Failure Mode Effects and Critical Analysis) consideration of failure probability, Based on the weighting ranking of generating equipments which status to be probability estimation by FMECA. The FMECA is an engineering analysis and a core activity performed by reliability engineers to review the effects of probable failure modes of generating equipments and assemblies of the power system on system performance. The results of this paper show that application of FMECA with stochastic approach to the preventive maintenance can efficiently avail decreasing the cost on maintenance and hence improve the total benefit.

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Effects of Technology Transfer Policies on the Technical Efficiency of Korean University TTOs

  • HAN, JAEPIL
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제40권4호
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    • pp.23-45
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    • 2018
  • The Korean government has provided various policy devices to boost technology transfers between academia and industry since the establishment of the Technology Transfer Promotion Act in 2000. Along with the enactment of the law, the Korean government mandated the establishment of a technology transfer office at national and public universities and encouraged technology transfer activities. Despite the quantitative expansion of technology transfer offices (TTOs), operational inefficiency was brought up. As a supplementary policy, the Korean government implemented a line of projects to support the labor and business expenses of leading TTOs. This research questions whether the project greatly affected the technical efficiency of TTOs. We analyze publicly available university panel data from 2007 to 2015 using a one-step stochastic frontier analysis. The results suggest that the program was marginally effective at shifting the technical efficiency distribution to the right on average, but it failed to maximize its impact by diversifying the policy means based on targets. The marginal effects of the program on technical efficiency differ according to the research capability and size of each school. We also compare technical efficiency against the licensing income at the start and end of the program. Technical efficiency increased for the leading TTOs, and both measures show improvements for unsupported TTOs. Our empirical results imply that diversifying the program for universities with different characteristics may have improved the effectiveness of the policy.

Nonclassical Chemical Kinetics for Description of Chemical Fluctuation in a Dynamically Heterogeneous Biological System

  • Lim, Yu-Rim;Park, Seong-Jun;Lee, Sang-Youb;Sung, Jae-Young
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.963-970
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    • 2012
  • We review novel chemical kinetics proposed for quantitative description of fluctuations in reaction times and in the number of product molecules in a heterogeneous biological system, and discuss quantitative interpretation of randomness parameter data in enzymatic turnover times of ${\beta}$-galactosidase. We discuss generalization of renewal theory for description of chemical fluctuation in product level in a multistep biopolymer reaction occurring in a dynamically heterogeneous environment. New stochastic simulation results are presented for the chemical fluctuation of a dynamically heterogeneous reaction system, which clearly show the effects of the initial state distribution on the chemical fluctuation. Our stochastic simulation results are found to be in good agreement with predictions of the analytic results obtained from the generalized master equation.

STOCHASTIC SIMULATION OF DAILY WEATHER VARIABLES

  • Lee, Ju-Young;Kelly brumbelow, Kelly-Brumbelow
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • 제4권3호
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2003
  • Meteorological data are often needed to evaluate the long-term effects of proposed hydrologic changes. The evaluation is frequently undertaken using deterministic mathematical models that require daily weather data as input including precipitation amount, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed. Stochastic generation of the required weather data offers alternative to the use of observed weather records. The precipitation is modeled by a Markov Chain-exponential model. The other variables are generated by multivariate model with means and standard deviations of the variables conditioned on the wet or dry status of the day as determined by the precipitation model. Ultimately, the objective of this paper is to compare Richardson's model and the improved weather generation model in their ability to provide daily weather data for the crop model to study potential impacts of climate change on the irrigation needs and crop yield. However this paper does not refer to the improved weather generation model and the crop model. The new weather generation model improved will be introduced in the Journal of KWRA.

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수송확률밀도함수 모델을 이용한 난류비예혼합 파일럿 안정화 화염장 해석 (Numerical Study on Turbulent Nonpremixed Pilot Stabilized Flame using the Transported Probability Density Function Model)

  • 이정원;김용모
    • 한국연소학회지
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2010
  • The transported probability density function(PDF) model has been applied to simulate the turbulent nonpremixed piloted jet flame. To realistically account for the mixture fraction PDF informations on the turbulent non-premixed jet flame, the present Lagrangian PDF transport approach is based on the joint velocity-composition-turbulence frequency PDF formulation. The fluctuating velocity of stochastic fields is modeled by simplified Langevin model(SLM), turbulence frequency of stochastic fields is modeled by Jayesh-Pope model and effects of molecular diffusion are represented by the interaction by exchange with the mean (IEM) mixing model. To validate the present approach, the numerical results obtained by the joint velocity-composition-turbulence frequency PDF model are compared with experimental data in terms of the unconditional and conditional means of mixture fraction, temperature and species and PDFs.

복합화력발전기의 신뢰도 기반 유지보수를 위한 확률론적 FMECA 평가 (Stochastic FMECA Assessment for Combustion-Turbine Generating Unit in Order to RCM Schedule)

  • 주재명;이승혁;김진오
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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    • pp.351-353
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    • 2006
  • Preventive maintenance can avail the generating unit to reduce cost and gain more profit in a competitive supply-side power market. so, it is necessary to perform reliability analysis on the systems in which reliability is essential. In this paper, FMECA assessment adopted using real historical failure data in Korean power plants for apply RCM analytical method. The stochastic FMECA is an engineering analysis and a core activity performed by reliability engineers to review the effects of probable failure modes of generating unit and assemblies of the power system on system performance. Optimal RCM schedule which is considered the severity level of each generating unit and failure probability from failure prediction of generating unit can be planned using proposed FMECA with IOE index.

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오대산지진(M=4.8, '07. 1. 20)의 지진파 전달특성 평가 (Spectral Features of Seismic Wave Propagation from Odaesan Earthquake (M=4.8, '07. 1. 20))

  • 연관희;박동희;장천중
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지구물리탐사학회 2007년도 공동학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.81-86
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    • 2007
  • Spectral features of the seismic wave propagation from Odaesan Earthquake were evaluated based on the commonly treated random error between the observed data and the prediction values by the stochastic point-source ground-motion spectral model regarding the source, path and site effects. Radiation pattern of the error according to azimuth angle was found to be similar to the theoretical estimate. It was also observed that the spatial distribution of the errors was correlated with the geological map and the Q0 map which are indicatives of seismic boundaries.

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Technical Inefficiency Effects and Technological Change in Bangladesh Food Industry: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis

  • Rana, Md. Masud;Baten, Md. Azizul;Rabman, Mezbahur
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.1449-1463
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    • 2008
  • This paper considers three different models with two functional forms, Cobb-Douglas and Translog, for the stochastic frontier production function of food manufacturing industry of Bangladesh over the period 1981-1982 to 1999-2000. The models are proposed by Battese and Coelli (1992, 1995) and Huang and Liu (1994). The technical efficiency, total factor productivity, technological change and technical efficiency change have been estimated in the frontier models. The results indicate that 41.47%, 59.30% and 70.98% of the potential output are being realized in this sector. The mean increments in total factor productivity are approximately 2%, 9% and 4% respectively.

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Effects of incorrect detrending on the coherency between non-stationary time series processes

  • Lee, Jin
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제26권1호
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2019
  • We study the effect of detrending on the coherency between two time series processes. Many economic and financial time series variables include nonstationary components; however, we analyze the two most popular cases of stochastic and deterministic trends. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of coherency under incorrect detrending, which includes the cases of first-differencing the deterministic trend process and, conversely, the time trend removal of the unit root process. A simulation study is performed to investigate the finite sample performance of the sample coherency due to incorrect detrending. Our work is expected to draw attention to the possible distortion of coherency when the series are incorrectly detrended. Further, our results can extend to various specification of trends in aggregate time series variables.

Contribution of local site-effect on the seismic response of suspension bridges to spatially varying ground motions

  • Adanur, Suleyman;Altunisik, Ahmet C.;Soyluk, Kurtulus;Dumanoglu, A. Aydin;Bayraktar, Alemdar
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제10권5호
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    • pp.1233-1251
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, it is aimed to determine the stochastic response of a suspension bridge subjected to spatially varying ground motions considering the geometric nonlinearity. Bosphorus Suspension Bridge built in Turkey and connects Europe to Asia in Istanbul is selected as a numerical example. The spatial variability of the ground motion is considered with the incoherence, wave-passage and site-response effects. The importance of site-response effect which arises from the difference in the local soil conditions at different support points of the structure is also investigated. At the end of the study, mean of the maximum and variance response values obtained from the spatially varying ground motions are compared with those of the specialised cases of the ground motion model. It is seen that each component of the spatially varying ground motion model has important effects on the dynamic behaviour of the bridge. The response values obtained from the general excitation case, which also includes the site-response effect causes larger response values than those of the homogeneous soil condition cases. The variance values calculated for the general excitation case are dominated by dynamic component at the deck and Asian side tower. The response values obtained for the site-response effect alone are larger than the response values obtained for the incoherence and wave-passage effects, separately. It can be concluded that suspension bridges are sensitive to the spatial variability of ground motion. Therefore, the incoherence, the wave-passage and especially the site-response effects should be considered in the stochastic analysis of this type of engineering structures.