• Title/Summary/Keyword: stochastic approach

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Study on Volterra System for Variation of Metacentric Height in Waves and its Application to Analysis of Parametric Roll (볼테라 시스템을 이용한 파랑 중 파라메트릭 횡동요에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Hoon;Kim, Yonghwan
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.227-241
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    • 2017
  • In this study, a Volterra system for the variations of metacentric height (GM) in waves is employed to simulate the parametric roll phenomena of ships in head sea condition. Using the present Volterra system, the transfer function of each harmonic component in the GM variation is computed for different ship models, including mathematical models and a real containership, and the results are validated through the comparison with the values obtained using the direct calculations based on a weakly nonlinear time-domain method. Then, a semi-analytic approach employing a 1-degree of freedom equation for roll motion is developed to simulate the parametric roll motions in irregular waves. In the derived approach, the nonlinear and time-varying restoring forces in the waves are approximated using the Volterra system. Through simulations of the parametric roll for different sea states, the effects of the 1st and 2nd-order harmonic components of the variations in the occurrence and amplitude of the parametric roll motions are investigated. Because of the strong nonlinearities in the phenomena, a stochastic analysis is conducted to examine the statistical properties of the roll motions in consideration of the sensitivities and uncertainties in the computations.

Big Data and Knowledge Generation in Tertiary Education in the Philippines

  • Fadul, Jose A.
    • Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.5-18
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    • 2014
  • This exploratory study investigates the use of a computational knowledge engine (WolframAlpha) and social networking sites (Gmail, Yahoo and Facebook) by 200 students at De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde, their "friends" and their "friends of friends" during the 2009 through 2013 school years, and how this appears to have added value in knowledge generation. The primary aim is to identify what enhances productiveness in knowledge generation in Philippine Tertiary Education. The phenomenological approach is used, therefore there are no specific research questions or hypotheses proposed in this paper. Considering that knowledge generation is a complex phenomenon, a stochastic modelling approach is also used for the investigation that was developed specifically to study un-deterministic complex systems. A list of salient features for knowledge generation is presented as a result. In addition to these features, various problem types are identified from literature. These are then integrated to provide a proposed framework of inclusive (friendly) and innovative social networks, for knowledge generation in Philippine tertiary education. Such a framework is necessarily multidisciplinary and useful for problem-solving in a globalized and pluralist reality. The implementation of this framework is illustrated in the three parts of the study: Part 1: Online lessons, discussions, and examinations in General Psychology, Introduction to Sociology, and Life and Works of Jose Rizal, for the author's students in De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde; Part 2: Facebook Report analytics of students and teachers, their friends and their friends of friends via WolframAlpha; and Part 3: Social Network Analysis of the people and groups influencing the courses' scope-and-sequence in the new General Education Curriculum for Tertiary Schools and Institutions in the Philippines.

Performance Evaluation of Web-based Cloud Services in a Browser-Scripting Approach

  • Zhang, Chengwei;Hei, Xiaojun;Cheng, Wenqing
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.2463-2482
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    • 2016
  • Cloud services are often provisioned to their customers using user-friendly web browsers with flexible and rich plug-in environments. Delay is one of the fundamental performance metrics of these web-based services. Commonly-used network measurement tools usually only measure network delay and it may be difficult to infer the web-delay performance using only network layer measurement approaches. In this paper, we propose to evaluate the application layer delay in a browser-based network measurement platform using engineered scripts. We conducted a delay measurement study using instrumented scripts in the proposed browser-based measurement platform. Our investigation included a comparison study of three browser-scripting delay measurement methods, including Java applet, JSP and Flash ActionScript. We developed a browser-based delay measurement testbed over the Internet so that different delay measurement tools could be evaluated in the same real network environment including typical Internet paths and the Baidu cloud. We also decomposed the components of the end-to-end delay process of the above measurements to reveal the difference and relationship between the network-layer delay and the application-layer delay. Our measurement results characterize the stochastic properties of the application-layer delay over real Internet paths, and how these properties vary from the underlying network layer delay. This browser-scripting measurement approach can be easily deployed on different cloud service platforms to inspect their application-layer delay performance between end clients and the cloud platforms. Our measurement results may provide insights into designing new cloud services with enhanced quality-of-experience perceived by cloud users.

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Hydrologic Components and Water Resources in Watershed (기후변화에 따른 유역의 수문요소 및 수자원 영향평가)

  • Kim Byung Sik;Kim Hung Soo;Seoh Byung Ha;Kim Nam Won
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.143-148
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    • 2005
  • The main purpose of this study is to suggest and evaluate an operational method for assessing the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic components and water resources of regional scale river basins. The method, which uses large scale climate change information provided by a state of the art general circulation model(GCM) comprises a statistical downscaling approach and a spatially distributed hydrological model applied to a river basin located in Korea. First, we construct global climate change scenarios using the YONU GCM control run and transient experiments, then transform the YONU GCM grid-box predictions with coarse resolution of climate change into the site-specific values by statistical downscaling techniques. The values are used to modify the parameters of the stochastic weather generator model for the simulation of the site-specific daily weather time series. The weather series fed into a semi-distributed hydrological model called SLURP to simulate the streamflows associated with other water resources for the condition of $2CO_2$. This approach is applied to the Yongdam dam basin in southern part of Korea. The results show that under the condition of $2CO_2$, about $7.6\% of annual mean streamflow is reduced when it is compared with the observed one. And while Seasonal streamflows in the winter and autumn are increased, a streamflow in the summer is decreased. However, the seasonality of the simulated series is similar to the observed pattern and the analysis of the duration cure shows the mean of averaged low flow is increased while the averaged wet and normal flow are decreased for the climate change.

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LCCA-embedded Monte Carlo Approach for Modeling Pay Adjustment at the State DOTs (도로공사에서 생애주기비용을 사용한 지급조정모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Choi Jae-ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.72-77
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    • 2002
  • The development of a Pay Adjustment (PA) procedure for implementing Performance-related Specifications (PRS) is known to be a difficult task faced by most State Highway Agencies (SHAs) due to the difficulty in such areas as selecting pay factor items, modeling the relationship between stochastic variability of pay factor items and pavement performance, and determining an overall lot pay adjustment. This led to the need for an effective way of developing a scientific pay adjustment procedure by incorporating Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) embedded Monte Carlo approach. In this work, we propose a prototype system to determine a PA specifically using the data in the pavement management information systems at Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT) as an exemplary to other SHAs. It is believed that the PRS methodology demonstrated in this study can be used in real projects by incorporating the more accurate and reliable performance prediction models and LCC model.

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Rock burst criteria of deep residual coal pillars in an underground coal mine: a case study

  • Qiu, Pengqi;Wang, Jun;Ning, Jianguo;Liu, Xuesheng;Hu, Shanchao;Gu, Qingheng
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.499-511
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    • 2019
  • The reliability of reinforced concrete structures is frequently compromised by the deterioration caused by reinforcement corrosion. Evaluating the effect caused by reinforcement corrosion on structural behaviour of corrosion damaged concrete structures is essential for effective and reliable infrastructure management. In lifecycle management of corrosion affected reinforced concrete structures, it is difficult to correctly assess the lifecycle performance due to the uncertainties associated with structural resistance deterioration. This paper presents a stochastic deterioration modelling approach to evaluate the performance deterioration of corroded concrete structures during their service life. The flexural strength deterioration is analytically predicted on the basis of bond strength evolution caused by reinforcement corrosion, which is examined by the experimental and field data available. An assessment criterion is defined to evaluate the flexural strength deterioration for the time-dependent reliability analysis. The results from the worked examples show that the proposed approach is capable of evaluating the structural reliability of corrosion damaged concrete structures.

Development of Multisite Spatio-Temporal Downscaling Model for Rainfall Using GCM Multi Model Ensemble (다중 기상모델 앙상블을 활용한 다지점 강우시나리오 상세화 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kim, Ki-Young;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.327-340
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    • 2015
  • General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the basic tool used for modelling climate. However, the spatio-temporal discrepancy between GCM and observed value, therefore, the models deliver output that are generally required calibration for applied studies. Which is generally done by Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach. Stochastic downscaling methods have been used extensively to generate long-term weather sequences from finite observed records. A primary objective of this study is to develop a forecasting scheme which is able to make use of a MME of different GCMs. This study employed a Nonstationary Hidden Markov Chain Model (NHMM) as a main tool for downscaling seasonal ensemble forecasts over 3 month period, providing daily forecasts. Our results showed that the proposed downscaling scheme can provide the skillful forecasts as inputs for hydrologic modeling, which in turn may improve water resources management. An application to the Nakdong watershed in South Korea illustrates how the proposed approach can lead to potentially reliable information for water resources management.

The Parallel Corpus Approach to Building the Syntactic Tree Transfer Set in the English-to- Vietnamese Machine Translation

  • Dien Dinh;Ngan Thuy;Quang Xuan;Nam Chi
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • summer
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    • pp.382-386
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    • 2004
  • Recently, with the machine learning trend, most of the machine translation systems on over the world use two syntax tree sets of two relevant languages to learn syntactic tree transfer rules. However, for the English-Vietnamese language pair, this approach is impossible because until now we have not had a Vietnamese syntactic tree set which is correspondent to English one. Building of a very large correspondent Vietnamese syntactic tree set (thousands of trees) requires so much work and take the investment of specialists in linguistics. To take advantage from our available English-Vietnamese Corpus (EVC) which was tagged in word alignment, we choose the SITG (Stochastic Inversion Transduction Grammar) model to construct English- Vietnamese syntactic tree sets automatically. This model is used to parse two languages at the same time and then carry out the syntactic tree transfer. This English-Vietnamese bilingual syntactic tree set is the basic training data to carry out transferring automatically from English syntactic trees to Vietnamese ones by machine learning models. We tested the syntax analysis by comparing over 10,000 sentences in the amount of 500,000 sentences of our English-Vietnamese bilingual corpus and first stage got encouraging result $(analyzed\;about\;80\%)[5].$ We have made use the TBL algorithm (Transformation Based Learning) to carry out automatic transformations from English syntactic trees to Vietnamese ones based on that parallel syntactic tree transfer set[6].

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Performance Improvement of Freight Logistics Hub Selection in Thailand by Coordinated Simulation and AHP

  • Wanitwattanakosol, Jirapat;Holimchayachotikul, Pongsak;Nimsrikul, Phatchari;Sopadang, Apichat
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.88-96
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    • 2010
  • This paper presents a two-phase quantitative framework to aid the decision making process for effective selection of an efficient freight logistics hub from 8 alternatives in Thailand on the North-South economic corridor. Phase 1 employs both multiple regression and Pearson Feature selection to find the important criteria, as defined by logistics hub score, and to reduce number of criteria by eliminating the less important criteria. The result of Pearson Feature selection indicated that only 5 of 15 criteria affected the logistics hub score. Moreover, Genetic Algorithm (GA) was constructed from original 15 criteria data set to find the relationship between logistics criteria and freight logistics hub score. As a result, the statistical tools are provided the same 5 important criteria, affecting logistics hub score from GA, and data mining tool. Phase 2 performs the fuzzy stochastic AHP analysis with the five important criteria. This approach could help to gain insight into how the imprecision in judgment ratios may affect their alternatives toward the best solution and how the best alternative may be identified with certain confidence. The main objective of the paper is to find the best alternative for selecting freight logistics hub under proper criteria. The experimental results show that by using this approach, Chiang Mai province is the best place with the confidence interval 95%.

A Long-term Durability Prediction for RC Structures Exposed to Carbonation Using Probabilistic Approach (확률론적 기법을 이용한 탄산화 RC 구조물의 내구성 예측)

  • Jung, Hyun-Jun;Kim, Gyu-Seon
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2010
  • This paper provides a new approach for durability prediction of reinforced concrete structures exposed to carbonation. In this method, the prediction can be updated successively by a Bayes' theorem when additional data are available. The stochastic properties of model parameters are explicitly taken into account in the model. To simplify the procedure of the model, the probability of the durability limit is determined based on the samples obtained from the Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) technique. The new method may be very useful in design of important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures which have been monitored. For using the new method, in which the prior distribution is developed to represent the uncertainties of the carbonation velocity using data of concrete structures(3700 specimens) in Korea and the likelihood function is used to monitor in-situ data. The posterior distribution is obtained by combining a prior distribution and a likelihood function. Efficiency of the LHS technique for simulation was confirmed through a comparison between the LHS and the Monte Calro Simulation(MCS) technique.