• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.67-79
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• 2016

The forecasting of air pollution is an important and popular topic in environmental engineering. Due to health impacts caused by unacceptable particulate matter (PM) levels, it has become one of the greatest concerns in metropolitan cities like Karaj City in Iran. In this study, the concentration of $PM_{2.5}$ was predicted by applying a multilayer percepteron (MLP) neural network, a radial basis function (RBF) neural network and a Markov chain model. Two months of hourly data including temperature, NO, $NO_2$, $NO_x$, CO, $SO_2$ and $PM_{10}$ were used as inputs to the artificial neural networks. From 1,488 data, 1,300 of data was used to train the models and the rest of the data were applied to test the models. The results of using artificial neural networks indicated that the models performed well in predicting $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations. The application of a Markov chain described the probable occurrences of unhealthy hours. The MLP neural network with two hidden layers including 19 neurons in the first layer and 16 neurons in the second layer provided the best results. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$), Index of Agreement (IA) and Efficiency (E) between the observed and the predicted data using an MLP neural network were 0.92, 0.93 and 0.981, respectively. In the MLP neural network, the MBE was 0.0546 which indicates the adequacy of the model. In the RBF neural network, increasing the number of neurons to 1,488 caused the RMSE to decline from 7.88 to 0.00 and caused $R^2$ to reach 0.93. In the Markov chain model the absolute error was 0.014 which indicated an acceptable accuracy and precision. We concluded the probability of occurrence state duration and transition of $PM_{2.5}$ pollution is predictable using a Markov chain method.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.495-516
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• 2016

This study empirically examines how asymmetric price adjustment of the retail gas price happens differently for various oil products, such as high-grade gasoline, regular gasoline, and diesel, by employing asymmetric error correction model within weekly data set from 2010~2015. Our estimation results show that the price adjustment, across the all oil types, predicated on shifting crude oil and wholesale oil prices is asymmetric. In addition, the duration of asymmetry was shorter in high-grade gasoline case than in other oil types. This took place by rapid price adjustment of high-grade gasoline price when faced with both cost increases and decreases, in comparison with regular gasoline and diesel cases. There results were attributed by characteristics of the consumer group and a high retail-wholesale margin of high-grade gasoline.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.359-366
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• 2013

Although many research efforts have been conducted to address the effect of crew members' work skills (e.g., technical and planning skills) on work performance (e.g., work duration and quality) in construction projects, the relationship between skill and performance has generated a great deal of controversy in the field of management (Inkpen and Crossan 1995). This controversy can lead to under- or over-estimations of the overall project schedule, and can make it difficult for project managers to implement appropriate managerial policies for enhancing project performance. To address this issue, the following aspects need to be considered: (a) work performances are determined not only by individual-level work skill but also by the group-level work skill affected by work team members, each member's role, and any working behavior pattern; (b) work planning has significant effects on to what extent work skill enhances performance; and (c) different types of activities in construction require different types of work, skill, and team composition. This research, therefore, develops a system dynamics (SD) model to analyze the effects of both individual-and group-level (i.e., multi-level) skill on performances by utilizing the advantages of SD in capturing a feedback process and state changes, especially in human factors (e.g., attitude, ability, and behavior). The model incorporates: (a) a multi-level skill evolution and relevant behavior development mechanism within a work group; (b) the interaction among work planning, a crew's skill-learning, skill manifestation, and performances; and (c) the different work characteristics of each activity. This model can be utilized to implement appropriate work planning (e.g., work scope and work schedule) and crew management policies (e.g., work team composition and decision of each worker's role) with an awareness of crew's skill and work performance. Understanding the different characteristics of each activity can also support project managers in applying strategic work planning and crew management for a corresponding activity, which may enhance each activity's performance, as well as the overall project performance.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.64 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2015

This paper proposes probabilistic reliability evaluation model of power system considering Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) integrated with Energy Storage System(ESS). Monte carlo sample state duration simulation method is used for the evaluation. Because the power output from WTG units usually fluctuates randomly, the power cannot be counted on to continuously satisfy the system load. Although the power output at any time is not controllable, the power output can be utilized by ESS. The ESS may make to smooth the fluctuation of the WTG power output. The detail process of power system reliability evaluation considering ESS cooperated WTG is presented using case study of Jeju island power system in the paper.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.7-14
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• 2011

This paper discusses operational technique and effectiveness of Variable Speed Limits system that is implemented to control the traffic-flow on the Naebu Expressway. As the first step of the analysis, traffic data collected from vehicle detectors are corrected and smoothed. Applying a pattern analysis technique to the traffic data, the weekday traffic is classified into four different groups, and median of each group is calculated. Using three state variables, i.e., diverted traffic volume, average density and average speed, the conditions of roadway segments are determined. Computational outputs resulted from the application of the proposed model to the scenarios show that implementation of Variable Speed Limits system improved both safety and efficiency of the expressway. For the operational strategy, this paper also presents the change rate of the speed limit, and the effective duration of the speed limit according to the entering traffic volume.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2015.07a
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• pp.473-474
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• 2015

This paper proposes probabilistic reliability evaluation model of power system considering Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) integrated with Energy Storage System(ESS). Monte carlo sample state duration simulation method is used for the evaluation. The power output from WTG units usually fluctuates randomly. Therefore, the power cannot be counted on to continuously satisfy the system load. Although the power output at any time is not controllable, the power output can be utilized when needed if ESS is available. The ESS may make to smooth the fluctuation of the WTG power output. The detail process of power system reliability evaluation considering Multi-ESS cooperated WTG is presented using case study of Jeju island power system in the paper.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.80-85
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• 2011

For the assessment of statistical characteristics of wave loads in the real sea state, the probability distribution of wave loads are computed based on the sufficient duration of computations in irregular waves. First of all, the estimation of wave impact loads is well modified applying the displacement potential formulation, which was proposed by one of authors, for solving Wagner's flow model. Consequently, the present computation method is also modified. Prior to the computation in irregular waves, preliminary computation to determine the adequate number of realization of irregular waves is examined. The effect of hull girder vibration on the statistical characteristics is examined by means of the computation with/without hull girder vibration. It is found that hull girder vibration has a certain effect on the probability of occurrence of wave loads. Furthermore, computations taking account of the effect of operation, that is the effects of ship speed and course change, is conducted for the rational evaluation of the effects of hull girder vibration. It is clarified that the effect of operation on the statistical characteristics of wave loads is significant. It is verified that the evaluation without the effect of operation may overestimate the effect of hull girder vibration.

• The Korean Journal of Pain
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.26-38
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• 1996

In a normal state, sympathetic efferent activity does not elicit discharges of sensory neurons, whereas it becomes associated with and excites sensory neurons in a pathophysiological state such as injury to a peripheral nerve. Although this sympathetic-sensory interaction is reportedly adrenergic, involved subtypes of adrenoreceptors are not yet clearly revealed. The purpose of this study was to determine which adrenorceptor subtypes were involved in sympathetic-sensory interaction that was developed in rats with an experimental peripheral neuropathy. Using rats that received a tight ligation of one or two of L4-L6 spinal nerves 10~15 days previously, a recording was made from afferent fibers in microfilaments teased from the dorsal root that was in continuity with the ligated spinal nerve. Electrical stimulation of sympathetic preganglionic fibers in T13 or L1 ventral root (50 Hz, 2-5 mA. 0.5 ms pulse duration, 10 sec) was made to see if the activity of recorded afferents was modulated. About half of afferents showing spontaneous discharges responded to sympathetic stimulation, and had the conduction velocities in the A-fiber range. Most of the sympathetically induced afferent responses were excitation. This sympathetically induced excitation occurred in the dorsal root ganglion (DRG), and was blocked by yohimbine (${\alpha}_2$ blocker), neither by propranolol ($\beta$ blocker) not by prazosine (${\alpha}_1$ blocker). The results suggest that after spinal nerve ligation, sympathetic efferents interact with sensory neurons having A-fiber axons in DRG where adrenaline released from sympathetic nerve endings excites the activity of sensory neurons by acting on 2-adrenoreceptors. This 2-adrenoreceptor mediated excitation of sensory neurons may account for sympathetic involvement in neuropathic pain.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.84-94
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• 2009

Moisture Index time series derived from NOAA/AVHRR data have showed to be useful for humid and arid states. The humid/arid states of the Geum river basin are classified by means of the moisture index estimated from the climatic water budget model. Validations showed that the moisture index has excellent ability to detect humid/arid conditions and to measure time of its onset, intensity and duration. In this study, a simple method to classify the moisture index is proposed by statistical distribution condition. Also, the moisture index is compared with the regional actual state to detect drought area.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.202-202
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• 2016

Despite the potentially major influence of rainstorm patterns on the prediction of shallow landslides, this relationship has not yet received significant attention. In this study, five typical temporal rainstorm patterns with the same cumulative amount and intensity components comprising Advanced (A1 and A2), Centralized (C), and Delayed (D1 and D2) were designed based on a historical rainstorm event occurred in 2006 in Mt. Jinbu area. The patterns were incorporated as the hydrological conditions into the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability Model (TRIGRS), in order to assess their influences on pore pressure variation and changes in the stability of the covering soil layer in the study area. The results revealed that not only the cumulative rainfall thresholds necessary to initiate landslides, but also the rate at which the factor of safety (FS) decreases and the time required to reach the critical state, are governed by rainstorm pattern. The sooner the peak rainfall intensity occurs, the smaller the cumulative rainfall threshold, and the shorter the time until landslide occurrence. Left-skewed rainfall patterns were found to have a greater effect on landslide initiation. More specifically, among the five different patterns, the Advanced storm pattern (A1) produced the most critical state, as it resulted in the highest pore pressure across the entire area for the shortest duration; the severity of response was then followed by patterns A2, C, D1, and D2. Thus, it can be concluded that rainfall patterns have a significant effect on the cumulative rainfall threshold, the build-up of pore pressure, and the occurrence of shallow landslides, both in space and time.