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Recent Progress in Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Research: A Review of Papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2006 (공기조화, 냉동 분야의 최근 연구 동향: 2006년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰)

  • Han, Hwa-Taik;Shin, Dong-Sin;Choi, Chang-Ho;Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Seo-Young;Kwon, Yong-Il
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.427-446
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    • 2008
  • A review on the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2006 has been accomplished. Focus has been put on current status of research in the aspect of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation and building environments. The conclusions are as follows. (1) The research trends of fluid engineering have been surveyed as groups of general fluid flow, fluid machinery and piping, etc. New research topics include micro heat exchanger and siphon cooling device using nano-fluid. Traditional CFD and flow visualization methods were still popular and widely used in research and development. Studies about diffusers and compressors were performed in fluid machinery. Characteristics of flow and heat transfer and piping optimization were studied in piping systems. (2) The papers on heat transfer have been categorized into heat transfer characteristics, heat exchangers, heat pipes, and two-phase heat transfer. The topics on heat transfer characteristics in general include thermal transport in a cryo-chamber, a LCD panel, a dryer, and heat generating electronics. Heat exchangers investigated include pin-tube type, plate type, ventilation air-to-air type, and heat transfer enhancing tubes. The research on a reversible loop heat pipe, the influence of NCG charging mass on heat transport capacity, and the chilling start-up characteristics in a heat pipe were reported. In two-phase heat transfer area, the studies on frost growth, ice slurry formation and liquid spray cooling were presented. The studies on the boiling of R-290 and the application of carbon nanotubes to enhance boiling were noticeable in this research area. (3) Many studies on refrigeration and air conditioning systems were presented on the practical issues of the performance and reliability enhancement. The air conditioning system with multi indoor units caught attention in several research works. The issues on the refrigerant charge and the control algorithm were treated. The systems with alternative refrigerants were also studied. Carbon dioxide, hydrocarbons and their mixtures were considered and the heat transfer correlations were proposed. (4) Due to high oil prices, energy consumption have been attentioned in mechanical building systems. Research works have been reviewed in this field by grouping into the research on heat and cold sources, air conditioning and cleaning research, ventilation and fire research including tunnel ventilation, and piping system research. The papers involve the promotion of efficient or effective use of energy, which helps to save energy and results in reduced environmental pollution and operating cost. (5) Studies on indoor air quality took a great portion in the field of building environments. Various other subjects such as indoor thermal comfort were also investigated through computer simulation, case study, and field experiment. Studies on energy include not only optimization study and economic analysis of building equipments but also usability of renewable energy in geothermal and solar systems.

Development Process for User Needs-based Chatbot: Focusing on Design Thinking Methodology (사용자 니즈 기반의 챗봇 개발 프로세스: 디자인 사고방법론을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Museong;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.221-238
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    • 2019
  • Recently, companies and public institutions have been actively introducing chatbot services in the field of customer counseling and response. The introduction of the chatbot service not only brings labor cost savings to companies and organizations, but also enables rapid communication with customers. Advances in data analytics and artificial intelligence are driving the growth of these chatbot services. The current chatbot can understand users' questions and offer the most appropriate answers to questions through machine learning and deep learning. The advancement of chatbot core technologies such as NLP, NLU, and NLG has made it possible to understand words, understand paragraphs, understand meanings, and understand emotions. For this reason, the value of chatbots continues to rise. However, technology-oriented chatbots can be inconsistent with what users want inherently, so chatbots need to be addressed in the area of the user experience, not just in the area of technology. The Fourth Industrial Revolution represents the importance of the User Experience as well as the advancement of artificial intelligence, big data, cloud, and IoT technologies. The development of IT technology and the importance of user experience have provided people with a variety of environments and changed lifestyles. This means that experiences in interactions with people, services(products) and the environment become very important. Therefore, it is time to develop a user needs-based services(products) that can provide new experiences and values to people. This study proposes a chatbot development process based on user needs by applying the design thinking approach, a representative methodology in the field of user experience, to chatbot development. The process proposed in this study consists of four steps. The first step is 'setting up knowledge domain' to set up the chatbot's expertise. Accumulating the information corresponding to the configured domain and deriving the insight is the second step, 'Knowledge accumulation and Insight identification'. The third step is 'Opportunity Development and Prototyping'. It is going to start full-scale development at this stage. Finally, the 'User Feedback' step is to receive feedback from users on the developed prototype. This creates a "user needs-based service (product)" that meets the process's objectives. Beginning with the fact gathering through user observation, Perform the process of abstraction to derive insights and explore opportunities. Next, it is expected to develop a chatbot that meets the user's needs through the process of materializing to structure the desired information and providing the function that fits the user's mental model. In this study, we present the actual construction examples for the domestic cosmetics market to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed process. The reason why it chose the domestic cosmetics market as its case is because it shows strong characteristics of users' experiences, so it can quickly understand responses from users. This study has a theoretical implication in that it proposed a new chatbot development process by incorporating the design thinking methodology into the chatbot development process. This research is different from the existing chatbot development research in that it focuses on user experience, not technology. It also has practical implications in that companies or institutions propose realistic methods that can be applied immediately. In particular, the process proposed in this study can be accessed and utilized by anyone, since 'user needs-based chatbots' can be developed even if they are not experts. This study suggests that further studies are needed because only one field of study was conducted. In addition to the cosmetics market, additional research should be conducted in various fields in which the user experience appears, such as the smart phone and the automotive market. Through this, it will be able to be reborn as a general process necessary for 'development of chatbots centered on user experience, not technology centered'.

A study on mandatory insurance for aircraft operators (항공보험 가입의무에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chang-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.169-197
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to present a reasonable and concrete standard for the Korean aviation insurance compulsory subscription system. Through this, we aim to improve the current revision of laws and regulations, and ultimately create an environment in which the safety and property of the Korean people who use aircraft with appropriate aviation insurance can be secured. In particular, by reviewing the aviation business law and its new laws and regulations enacted in 2017, the legislative improvement direction of aviation insurance will be proposed. In order to maintain the continuous growth of the air transportation industry and to make amicable compensation for the victims, considering the characteristics of the total accident, instantness, and giganticness of air accidents in which a lot of people and property are lost in the event of an accident, adequate insurance coverage is essential. In this respect, the compulsory insurance to amend the principle of freedom of contract, which is the great principle of the modern judicial system, will be persuasive. However, in comparison with foreign legislation, the legal provisions on Korea's obligation to comply with aviation insurance need to be revised around the following issues: First, it is reasonable to enforce the regulation of the mandatory aviation insurance by legislation from the Congress not by administrative regulations. Because it will force the monetary obligations of the individual such as common air carriers. Second, our law regulations respond to various kinds of air damages by using the phrase "limit of liability stipulated in international conventions". However, as we have seen in the text, the range of compensation are various according to the use of legal instruments in international conventions such as the Montreal Convention, which governs the compensation of passengers for damages to passengers today. Third, in countries with narrow territories, such as Korea, there are big differences in flying time and insurable risk between domestic and international transportation. Therefore, it is necessary to divide domestic transportation and international transportation even in the obligation to join the insurance. This dual discipline has the advantage for rookies in air carrier market who mainly start their business from domestic service. Fourth, according to Korean law, the regulations of automobile loss insurance is applicable to the aviation mandatory insurance of unmanned aerial vehicle accident which is lack of persuasion. In the future, it will be appropriate to discipline insurance for unmanned aerial vehicles with unlimited potential for development from a long-term perspective.

Ideological Impacts and Change in the Recognition of Korean Cultural Heritage during the 20th Century (20세기 한국 문화재 인식의 이데올로기적 영향과 변화)

  • Oh, Chunyoung
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.60-77
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    • 2020
  • An assumption can be made that, as a start point for the recognition and utilization of cultural heritage, the "choice" of such would reflect the cultural ideology of the ruling power at that time. This has finally been proved by the case of Korea in the 20th century. First, in the late Korean Empire (1901-1910), the prevailing cultural ideology had been inherited from the Joseon Dynasty. The main objects that the Joseon Dynasty tried to protect were royal tombs and archives. During this time, an investigation by the Japanese into Korean historic sites began in earnest. Stung by this, enlightened intellectuals attempted to recognize them as constituting independent cultural heritage, but these attempts failed to be institutionalized. During the 1910-1945 Japanese occupation, the Japanese led investigations to institutionalize Korean cultural heritage, which formed the beginning of the current cultural heritage management system. At that time, the historical investigation, designation, protection, and enhancement activities led by the Japanese Government-General of Korea not only rationalized their colonial occupation of Korea but also illustrated their colonial perspective. Korean nationalists processed the campaign for the love of historical remains on an enlightening level, but they had their limits in that the campaign had been based on the outcome of research planned by the Japanese. During the 1945-2000 period following liberation from Japan, cultural heritage restoration projects took places that were based on nationalist ideology. People intended to consolidate the regime's legitimacy through these projects, and the enactment of the 'Cultural Heritage Charter' in 1997 represented an ideology in itself that stretched beyond a means of promoting nationalist ideology. During the past 20 centuries, cultural heritage content changed depending on the whims of those with political power. Such choices reflected the cultural ideology that the powers at any given time held with regard to cultural heritage. In the background of this cultural heritage choice mechanism, there have been working trade-off relationships formed between terminology and society, as well as the ideological characteristics of collective memories. The ruling party has tried to implant their ideology on their subjects, and we could consider that it wanted to achieve this by being involved in collective memories related to traditional culture, so called-choice, and utilization of cultural heritage.

An Exploratory study on derivation and Improvement of Kano Quality Attributes in Untact Classes (비대면 수업의 Kano 품질속성 도출과 개선에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Daeho Byun;Jaehoon Yang
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.65-79
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    • 2022
  • Non-face-to-face classes continue due to Covid-19. There have been e-learning classes since the past, but the difference is that the current non-face-to-face classes are blended classes that combine real-time and recording classes or combine face-to-face and non-face classes. It is also characterized by being able to self-filmed or choose various lecture platforms in a place other than a dedicated studio. The advantages of non-face-to-face classes can be learned beyond time and space, and repetitive viewing and learning speed can be adjusted. Greening classes have no time and place constraints, and real-time classes have the advantage of high communication effects with learners. Evaluating whether non-face-to-face classes provide sufficient quality compared to face-to-face classes or e-learning will be necessary if branded classes are considered for post Covid. In this paper, for the evaluation of the service quality of non-face-to-face classes, the essential attributes desired by the instructors were derived from the viewpoint of Kano quality attributes and a quality improvement plan was proposed. After expressing the degree of functions that non-face-to-face classes should have on the X-axis and the satisfaction of learners on the Y-axis, 23 quality attributes were classified into 6 quality dimensions. In addition, satisfaction coefficient, dissatisfaction coefficient, and customer satisfaction improvement index were derived. As a result, 50% of learners were satisfied with non-face-to-face classes, but the preference was slightly higher than satisfaction, suggesting the sustainability of non-face-to-face classes. In terms of the customer satisfaction improvement index, the ranking of attributes with the largest increase in satisfaction when improving class quality was as follows. Professors' quick answers to learners' questions, content that can fully explain the subject, what the professor explains easily, develop high-quality content that can be learned on mobile phones, fairness of attendance checks, and real-time classes should start on time.

Preoperative Concurrent Radio-chemotherapy for Rectal Cancer: Report of Early Results (직장암에 대한 수술 전 동시병용 방사선-항암 화학요법: 초기 치료결과 보고)

  • Shin, Seong-Soo;Ahn, Yong-Chan;Chun, Ho-Kyung;Lee, Woo-Yong;Kang, Won-Ki;Park, Young-Suk;Park, Joon-Oh;Song, Sang-Yong;Lim-Do-Hoon;Park, Won;Lee, Jung, Eun;Kang, Min-Kyu;Park, Yung-Je
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.125-134
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: To report the early results of preopeartive concurrent radio-chemotherapy (CRCT) for treating rectal cancer. Materials and Methods: From June 1999 to April 2002, 40 rectal cancer patients who either had lesions with a questionable resectability or were candidates for sphincter-sacrificing surgery received preoperative CRCT. Thirty-seven patients completed the planned CRCT course. 45 Gy by 1.8 Gy daily fraction over 5 weeks was delivered to the whole pelvis in the prone position. The chemotherapy regimens were oral UFT plus oral leucovorin (LV) in 12 patients, intravenous bolus 5-FU plus LV in 10 patients, and intravenous 5-FU alone in 15 patients (bolus infusion in 10, continuous infusion in 5). Surgery was planned in 4$\~$6 weeks of the completion of the preoperative CRCT course, and surgery was attempted in 35 patients. Results: The compliance to the current preoperative CRCT protocol was excellent, where 92.5$\%$ (37/40) completed the planned treatment. Among 35 patients, in whom surgery was attempted after excluding two patients with new metastatic lesions in the liver and the lung, sphincter-preservation was achieved in 22 patients (62.9$\%$), while resection was abandoned during laparotomy in two patients (5.7$\%$). Gross complete resection was peformed in 30 patients, gross incomplete resection was peformed in one patient, and no detailed information on the extent of surgery was available in two patients. Based on the surgical and pathological findings, the down-staging rate was 45.5$\%$ (15/33), and the complete resection rate with the negative resection margin 78.8$\%$ (26/33). During the CRCT course, grade 3 $\~$4 neutropenia developed in four patients (10.8$\%$). Local recurrence after surgical resection developed in 12.1$\%$ (4/33), and distant metastases after the preoperative CRCT start developed in 21.6$\%$ (8/37). The overall 3-years survival rate was 87$\%$. Conclusion: Preoperative CRCT in locally advanced rectal cancer is well tolerated and can lead to high resection rate, down-staging rate, sphincter preservation rate, however, longer term follow-up will be necessary to confirm these results.

Distributors' Preference for the Flextime System (유통업체 종사자의 유동근무제에 대한 선호성향에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Won-Haeng
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2012
  • The "flextime" system, which was initially designed to maintain a balance between work and personal life, has recently received much attention as an alternative form of work, enabling employees to fully exert their creativity. Most studies show that the effects of flextime on performance, productivity, attitude toward the organization, absenteeism, and turnover differ between managerial and non-managerial workers. This suggests that workers' personal characteristics affect their preference for flextime by directly or indirectly influencing its result variables. As most Korean companies have not adopted the flextime system, little research has been conducted on it in Korea. Recently, Korean companies have been discussing flextime as one of several measures for enhancing international competitiveness. Therefore, this study aims to offer a theoretical framework for the introduction of the system by analyzing the effects of the precedent factors on the preference for flextime. Though not statistically significant, a higher preference for flextime is noted among workers over the age of 36. Older workers usually are more conservative and less adaptable to change but here the older Korean workers may be anxious and resistant. Additional research on workers in different types of businesses using improved research methods will lead to more meaningful results. Married workers display a lower preference to flextime than single workers. In Korea, the current atmosphere focused on a happy home encourages married workers to prefer regular work hours, enabling them to go to and from work on a regular schedule. This means that normal working hours, from morning to evening, are preferred as it is the most suitable system for families. However, this is not so in the case of single workers. Unmarried singles tend to prefer flextime for investing in self-development toward future prosperity, over the benefits of regular working-hours. Flextime is designed to meet their needs to some extent as it is helpful in maintaining a balance between work life and self-development. If flextime is selected, workers can spend mornings on self-development and work in the afternoons. Therefore, when flextime is introduced in Korea, it would be desirable to start with unmarried workers, to increase corporate creativity and productivity and develop individual potential. In particular, when the five-day workweek, the main concern for companies and labor unions, is adopted, synergy with flextime could be expected and a gradual implementation of flextime will be effective. Gender difference shows similar results to marital status with male workers displaying a higher preference for flextime. It is inferred that male workers' attitudes toward flextime are more favorable than female workers' because flextime enables self-development and work life to coexist. A relatively weak, though statistically significant, correlation exists between control position and flextime preference with inner-control-oriented workers displaying favorable attitudes toward flextime. Generally, inner-control-oriented workers tend to attribute the consequences caused by any person or partner relationship to themselves. Thus, when a new system is introduced they are likely to have less reluctance and fear than outer-control-oriented workers, because they think it is important to deal with the new system. A weak but slight correlation exists between the desire for achievement and flextime preference. People who have a higher desire for achievement are willing to consider the new system, especially if significant success is reasonably expected. This result is derived from a reasonable judgment that flextime offers an individual the time for self-development while the organization benefits from the resulting creativity and performance enhancements. Although not the primary analysis, a high correlation is found between control position and the desire for achievement, which is consistent with the results of previous research. The regression analysis not only supports the preceding ANOVA and correlation analysis but also shows the existence of a causal relationship. Married workers have a weak preference for flextime, which is consistent with the results of the preceding ANOVA. Relative to men, women have a weak preference for flextime. No statistically significant correlation was noticed for age. Inner-control-oriented workers prefer flextime more than outer-control-oriented workers as the former view the consequences of change to be their own responsibility. However, the preference for flextime seems to be weak. As expected, people with a higher desire for achievement have a stronger preference for flextime, presumably because the greater the desire for achievement, the stronger the spirit of challenging an uncertain future. No significant correlation exists between job satisfaction and flextime preference.

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The Characteristics of Rural Population, Korea, 1960~1995: Population Composition and Internal Migration (농촌인구의 특성과 그 변화, 1960~1995: 인구구성 및 인구이동)

  • 김태헌
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.77-105
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    • 1996
  • The rural problems which we are facing start from the extremely small sized population and the skewed population structure by age and sex. Thus we analyzed the change of the rural population. And we analyzed the recent return migration to the rural areas by comparing the recent in-migrants with out-migrants to rural areas. And by analyzing the rural village survey data which was to show the current characteristics of rural population, we found out the effects of the in-migrants to the rural areas and predicted the futures of rural villages by characteristics. The changes of rural population composition by age was very clear. As the out-migrants towards cities carried on, the population composition of young children aged 0~4 years was low and the aged became thick. The proportion of the population aged 0~4 years was 45.1% of the total population in 1970 and dropped down to 20.4% in 1995, which is predicted to become under 20% from now on. In the same period(1970~1995), the population aged 65 years and over rose from 4.2% to 11.9%. In 1960, before industrialization, the proportion of the population aged 0~4 years in rural areas was higher than that of cities. As the rural young population continuously moves to cities it became lower than that in urban areas from 1975 and the gap grew till 1990. But the proportion of rural population aged 0~4 years in 1995 became 6.2% and the gap reduced. We can say this is the change of the characteristics of in-migrants and out-migrants in the rural areas. Also considering the composition of the population by age group moving from urban to rural area in the late 1980s, 51.8% of the total migrants concentrates upon age group of 20~34 years and these people's educational level was higher than that of out-migrants to urban areas. This fact predicted the changes of the rural population, and the results will turn out as a change in the rural society. However, after comparing the population structure between the pure rural village of Boeun-gun and suburban village of Paju-gun which was agriculture centered village but recently changed rapidly, the recent change of the rural population structure which the in-migrants to rural areas becomes younger is just a phenomenon in the suburban rural areas, not the change of the total rural areas in general. From the characteristics of the population structure of rural village from the field survey on these villages, we can see that in the pure rural villages without any effects from cities the regidents are highly aged, while industrialization and urbanization are making a progress in suburban villages. Therefore, the recent partial change of the rural population structure and the change of characteristics of the in-migrants toward rural areas is effecting and being effected by the population change of areas like suburban rural villages. Although there are return migrants to rural areas to change their jobs into agriculture, this is too minor to appear as a statistic effect.

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Yesterday and Today of Twelve Excellent Sceneries at Banbyeoncheon Expressed in Heojoo's Sansuyucheop (허주(虛舟) 산수유첩(山水遺帖)에 표현된 반변천(半邊川) 십이승경(十二勝景)의 어제와 오늘)

  • Kim, Jeong-Moon;Rho, Jae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.90-102
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    • 2012
  • Sansuyucheop by Heojoobugun(虛舟府君) as the subject of this study is a 십이-width picture album by the eldest grandson of 11 generations for Goseong Lee family, Lee Jong Ak(李宗岳: 1726-1773), a figure having five habits(五癖) for ancient documents(古書癖), playing the gayageum(彈琴癖), flowering plant(花卉癖), paintings and calligraphic works(書畵癖) and boating(舟遊癖) etc., who boated with 18 relatives, and those by marriage from old home, home of mother's side, wife's home, and his home for 5 days Apr. 4 through 8, 1763, starting from Imcheonggak, through Yangjeong(羊汀), Chiltan(七灘), Sabin Auditorium(泗濱書院), Seonchang(船倉), Nakyeon(落淵), Seonchal(仙刹), Seonyujeong(仙遊亭), Mongseongak(夢仙閣), Baekwoonjeong(白雲亭) and Naeap Village(川前里), Iho(伊湖), Seoeodae(鮮魚帶) to the returning point, Bangujeong(伴鷗亭), cruised magnificent views around Banbyeoncheon called 'Andong 8 Gyeong' or 'Imhagugok', and whenever the boat anchored, appreciated the scenery at each point, and enjoyed and loved arts playing the geomungo. This study reached following findings through grasping physical, ecological, visual and aesthetic changes about the places, sceneries, plant elements and past and current scenery of the width pictures expressed at this Sansuyucheop. The refinement on the boat seeing the clear river water, white sand beach, fantastically-shaped cliffs expressed at this Sansuyucheop, exchanging poems and calligraphies, and enjoying the geomungo is a good example displaying the play culture of high-class in Joseon Dynasty. Also construction of Imha Dam and Andong Dam has caused serious visual and ecological changes, making us not enable to feel the original mood of the background spots such as Yangjeonggwabeom(羊汀過帆), Chiltanhuseon(七灘候船), Sasubeomjoo(泗水泛舟), Seonchanggyeram(船倉繫纜), Nakyeonmosaek(落淵莫色), Mangcheonguido(輞川歸棹), Ihojeongdo(伊湖停棹), but only discern then landscape or sentiment through the landscape described at the canvas. The 1st picture(Donghohaeram, 東湖解纜), and the 11th picture(Seoeobanjo, 鮮魚返照) of Heojoobugun's Sansuyucheop expressed trees thought to be fallen, brad-leaf tall trees, and the 9th picture(Unjeongpungbeom, 雲亭風帆) formed a pine forest called 'Gaeho(開湖)' by Uncheongong planting 1,000 pine trees with the village people in 1617. In addition, Seunggyeongdo expressed ever-green needle leaf trees at the natural topography, and fallen-leaf tall trees around the pavilion and building. Comparative consideration of Heojoobugun's Sansuyucheop and Shinam's Dongyusipsogi(東遊十小記) showed that the location of Samgok is assumed to be Macheon and Chiltan, so Imhagugok is assumed to start from Baekunjeong of Ilgok, Igok from Imcheon and Imcheon auditorium, Samgok from Mangcheon and Chiltan, Sagok from Sabin Auditorium of Sasoo, Ogok from Songseok, Yukgok from Sooseok of Seonchang, Chilgok from Nakyeonhyeonryu, Palgok from Seonchalsa and Seonyoojeong, and Gugok from Pyong Yuheo. This study can be significant in that it could clarify that Heojoobugun's Sansuyucheop is judged to be valuable in exquisitively expressing the coast of Banbyeon River, the biggest branch stream in the Nakdong River at the latter half of Joseon Dynasty, and as a vital diagrammatical historical data to make a comparative analysis of currently rarely-seen ancestors' life traces and landscape factors with present ones.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.