• Title/Summary/Keyword: stage prediction

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Prediction of Ship Manoeuvrability in Initial Design Stage Using CFD Based Calculation

  • Cho, Yu-Rim;Yoon, Bum-Sang;Yum, Deuk-Joon;Lee, Myen-Sik
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.11-24
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    • 2007
  • Better prediction of a ship's manouevrabilty in initial design stage is becoming more, important as IMO manoeuvring criteria has been activated in the year of 2004. In the present study, in order to obtain more exact and reliable results for ship manoeuvrability in the initial design stage, numerical simulation is carried out by use of RANS equation based calculation of hydrodynamic forces exerted upon the ship hull. Other forces such as rudder force and propeller force are estimated by one of the empirical models recommended by MMG Group. Calculated hydrodynamic force coefficients are compared with those obtained by empirical models. Standard manoeuvring simulations such as turning circle and zig-zag are also carried out for a medium size Product Carrier and the results are compared with those of pure empirical models and manoeuvring sea trial. Generally good qualitative agreement is obtained in hydrodynamic forces due to steady oblique motion and steady turning motion between the results of CFD calculation and those of MMG model, which is based on empirical formulas. The results of standard manoeuvring simulation also show good agreement with sea trial results.

Providing Reliable Prognosis to Patients with Gastric Cancer in the Era of Neoadjuvant Therapies: Comparison of AJCC Staging Schemata

  • Kim, Gina;Friedmann, Patricia;Solsky, Ian;Muscarella, Peter;McAuliffe, John;In, Haejin
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.385-394
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: Patients with gastric cancer who receive neoadjuvant therapy are staged before treatment (cStage) and after treatment (ypStage). We aimed to compare the prognostic reliability of cStage and ypStage, alone and in combination. Materials and Methods: Data for all patients who received neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgery for gastric adenocarcinoma from 2004 to 2015 were extracted from the National Cancer Database. Kaplan-Meier (KM)curves were used to model overall survival based on cStage alone, ypStage alone, cStage stratified by ypStage, and ypStage stratified by cStage. P-values were generated to summarize the differences in KM curves. The discriminatory power of survival prediction was examined using Harrell's C-statistics. Results: We included 8,977 patients in the analysis. As expected, increasing cStage and ypStage were associated with worse survival. The discriminatory prognostic power provided by cStage was poor (C-statistic 0.548), while that provided by ypStage was moderate (C-statistic 0.634). Within each cStage, the addition of ypStage information significantly altered the prognosis (P<0.0001 within cStages I-IV). However, for each ypStage, the addition of cStage information generally did not alter the prognosis (P=0.2874, 0.027, 0.061, 0.049, and 0.007 within ypStages 0-IV, respectively). The discriminatory prognostic power provided by the combination of cStage and ypStage was similar to that of ypStage alone (C-statistic 0.636 vs. 0.634). Conclusions: The cStage is unreliable for prognosis, and ypStage is moderately reliable. Combining cStage and ypStage does not improve the discriminatory prognostic power provided by ypStage alone. A ypStage-based prognosis is minimally affected by the initial cStage.

Nanoscale Dynamics, Stochastic Modeling, and Multivariable Control of a Planar Magnetic Levitator

  • Kim, Won-Jong
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents a high-precision magnetically levitated (maglev) stage to meet demanding motion specifications in the next-generation precision manufacturing and nanotechnology. Characterization of dynamic behaviors of such a motion stage is a crucial task. In this paper, we address the issues related to the stochastic modeling of the stage including transfer function identification, and noise/disturbance analysis and prediction. Provided are test results on precision dynamics, such as fine settling, effect of optical table oscillation, and position ripple. To deal with the dynamic coupling in the platen, we designed and implemented a multivariable linear quadratic regulator, and performed time-optimal control. We demonstrated how the performance of the current maglev stage can be improved with these analyses and experimental results. The maglev stage operates with positioning noise of 5 nm rms in $\chi$ and y, acceleration capabilities in excess of 2g(20 $m/s^2$), and closed-loop crossover frequency of 100 Hz.

Bayesian Approach to the Prediction in the Censored Sample from Rayleigh Population

  • Ko, Jeong-Hwan;Kim, Young-Hoon;Kang, Sang-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.71-77
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    • 1997
  • S independent sample 0,1,2, $\cdots$, s-1 (or stages 0,1,2, $\cdots$, s-1) are available from the Raleigh population. Procedure for predicting any order statistic in the $(s+1)^{th}$ sample is developed by obtaining the predictive distribution at stage s. Bounds for the sample size at stage S, in order to have the variance at stage S less than that at stage (s-1), are obtained.

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Prediction and Measurement of Acoustic Loads Generated by KSR-III Propulsion System (KSR-III 로켓의 추진기관에 의한 음향 하중 예측 및 측정)

  • Park, Soon-Hong;Chun, Young-Doo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2002.11b
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    • pp.853-856
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    • 2002
  • Rocket propulsion systems generate very high-level noise (acoustic loads), which is due to supersonic jet emitted by rocket engine. In practice, the sound power level of rocket propulsion systems is over 180 dB. This high level noise excites rocket structures and payloads, so that it causes the structural failure and electronic malfunction of payloads. Prediction method of acoustic loads of rocket enables us to determine the safety of payloads. A popular prediction method is based on NASA SP-8072. This method was used to predict the acoustic loads of KSR-III rocket. Measurement of acoustic loads by KSR-III propulsion system was performed in the stage qualification test. The predicted results were compared with the measured ones.

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Analysis of Major Factors and Guideline for Road Traffic Noise Prediction (도로교통소음의 주요 예측인자 분석 및 예측지침)

  • Kang, Dae-Joon;Lee, Jae-Won;Gu, Jin-Hoi
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.515-520
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    • 2010
  • The noise map has been applied to predicting the effect of noise and establishing the noise abatement measure for several years overseas. However the introduction of the noise map in Korea is at the initial stage. Thus, we surveyed the several prediction models for road traffic noise used in EU, and the method of applying the noise map in noise impact assessment. In order to improve the noise impact assessment we have to apply the noise map, and propose the guideline of predicting the road traffic noise. We intend to obtain coherency and accuracy of prediction results. As a result of this study, we know that the prediction guideline is an essential prerequisite in order to predict the unified and accurate road traffic noise.

Development of Noise Prediction Program in Construction Sites (건설 공사장 간이 소음 예측 프로그램 개발)

  • Kim, Ha-Geun;Joo, Si-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.1157-1161
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    • 2007
  • A construction noise is the main reason for people's petition among the pollution. The purpose of this study is to develop the noise prediction program to see the level of the noise on the construction site more accurately. For this purpose, the database of the power level on the various equipments was made. The noise reduction by distance and the noise reduction by diffraction of barrier were mainly considered and calculated. The simple noise prediction program will provide the information about proper height and length of the potable barrier which satisfies noise criteria of the construction sites from a construction planning stage. To investigate the reliability of this program, the predicted data was compared with the measured data. An average of difference between measured data and predicted data is 1.3 dB(A) and a coefficient of correlation is about 0.95.

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Data Mining Approach Using Practical Swarm Optimization (PSO) to Predicting Going Concern: Evidence from Iranian Companies

  • Salehi, Mahdi;Fard, Fezeh Zahedi
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.5-11
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - Going concern is one of fundamental concepts in accounting and auditing and sometimes the assessment of a company's going concern status that is a tough process. Various going concern prediction models' based on statistical and data mining methods help auditors and stakeholders suggested in the previous literature. Research design - This paper employs a data mining approach to prediction of going concern status of Iranian firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange using Particle Swarm Optimization. To reach this goal, at the first step, we used the stepwise discriminant analysis it is selected the final variables from among of 42 variables and in the second stage; we applied a grid-search technique using 10-fold cross-validation to find out the optimal model. Results - The empirical tests show that the particle swarm optimization (PSO) model reached 99.92% and 99.28% accuracy rates for training and holdout data. Conclusions - The authors conclude that PSO model is applicable for prediction going concern of Iranian listed companies.

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A Study on the Process of Energy Demand Prediction of Multi-Family Housing Complex in the Urban Planning Stage (공동주택단지의 개발계획단계 시 에너지 수요예측 프로세스에 관한 연구)

  • Mun, Sun-Hye;Huh, Jung-Ho
    • 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.304-310
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    • 2008
  • Currently energy use planning council system is mandatory especially for the urban development project planned on a specified scale or more. The goal of existing demand prediction was to calculate the maximum load by multiplying energy load per unit area by building size. The result of this method may be exaggerated and has a limit in the information of period load. The paper suggests a new forecasting process based on standard unit household in order to upgrade the limit in demand prediction method of multi-family housing complex. The new process was verified by comparing actual using amount of multi-family housing complex to forecasting value of energy use plan.

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A Study on the Prediction and Database Program of Ship Noise (선박소음예측 및 데이터베이스 프로그램 개발)

  • 박종현;김동해
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2001.05a
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    • pp.149-154
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    • 2001
  • Ship owners are demanding quieter vessels since crews have become more sensitive to their acoustic environment. Accordingly, designers of shipyards need to respond intelligently to the challenging requirements of delivering a quiet vessel. In early design stage, to predict shipboard noise the statistical approach is preferred to other methods because of simplicity. However, since the noise characteristics of the ships vary continuously with the environments, it is necessary to update the prediction formula with data base management system. This paper describes the feature of database program with the prediction method. Database management programs with GUI, are applied to Intranet system that is accessible by any users. Statistical approach to the prediction of A-weighted noise level in ship cabins, based on multiple regression analysis, is conducted. The noise levels in ship cabins are mainly affected by the parameters of the deadweight, the type of ship, the relative location of engines and cabins, the type of deckhouse, etc. As a result of verification, the formulas ensure the accuracy of 3 ㏈ in 83 % of cabins.

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