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Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

The Research on Recommender for New Customers Using Collaborative Filtering and Social Network Analysis (협력필터링과 사회연결망을 이용한 신규고객 추천방법에 대한 연구)

  • Shin, Chang-Hoon;Lee, Ji-Won;Yang, Han-Na;Choi, Il Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.19-42
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    • 2012
  • Consumer consumption patterns are shifting rapidly as buyers migrate from offline markets to e-commerce routes, such as shopping channels on TV and internet shopping malls. In the offline markets consumers go shopping, see the shopping items, and choose from them. Recently consumers tend towards buying at shopping sites free from time and place. However, as e-commerce markets continue to expand, customers are complaining that it is becoming a bigger hassle to shop online. In the online shopping, shoppers have very limited information on the products. The delivered products can be different from what they have wanted. This case results to purchase cancellation. Because these things happen frequently, they are likely to refer to the consumer reviews and companies should be concerned about consumer's voice. E-commerce is a very important marketing tool for suppliers. It can recommend products to customers and connect them directly with suppliers with just a click of a button. The recommender system is being studied in various ways. Some of the more prominent ones include recommendation based on best-seller and demographics, contents filtering, and collaborative filtering. However, these systems all share two weaknesses : they cannot recommend products to consumers on a personal level, and they cannot recommend products to new consumers with no buying history. To fix these problems, we can use the information which has been collected from the questionnaires about their demographics and preference ratings. But, consumers feel these questionnaires are a burden and are unlikely to provide correct information. This study investigates combining collaborative filtering with the centrality of social network analysis. This centrality measure provides the information to infer the preference of new consumers from the shopping history of existing and previous ones. While the past researches had focused on the existing consumers with similar shopping patterns, this study tried to improve the accuracy of recommendation with all shopping information, which included not only similar shopping patterns but also dissimilar ones. Data used in this study, Movie Lens' data, was made by Group Lens research Project Team at University of Minnesota to recommend movies with a collaborative filtering technique. This data was built from the questionnaires of 943 respondents which gave the information on the preference ratings on 1,684 movies. Total data of 100,000 was organized by time, with initial data of 50,000 being existing customers and the latter 50,000 being new customers. The proposed recommender system consists of three systems : [+] group recommender system, [-] group recommender system, and integrated recommender system. [+] group recommender system looks at customers with similar buying patterns as 'neighbors', whereas [-] group recommender system looks at customers with opposite buying patterns as 'contraries'. Integrated recommender system uses both of the aforementioned recommender systems to recommend movies that both recommender systems pick. The study of three systems allows us to find the most suitable recommender system that will optimize accuracy and customer satisfaction. Our analysis showed that integrated recommender system is the best solution among the three systems studied, followed by [-] group recommended system and [+] group recommender system. This result conforms to the intuition that the accuracy of recommendation can be improved using all the relevant information. We provided contour maps and graphs to easily compare the accuracy of each recommender system. Although we saw improvement on accuracy with the integrated recommender system, we must remember that this research is based on static data with no live customers. In other words, consumers did not see the movies actually recommended from the system. Also, this recommendation system may not work well with products other than movies. Thus, it is important to note that recommendation systems need particular calibration for specific product/customer types.

Analysis of 2-D Potential Problem with L-shape Domain by p-Convergent Boundary Element Method (p-수렴 경계요소법에 의한 L-형 영역을 갖는 2차원 포텐셜 문제 해석)

  • Woo, Kwang-Sung;Jo, Jun-Hyung
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.117-124
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    • 2009
  • The p-convergent boundary element method has been proposed to analyze two-dimensional potential problem on the basis of high order Legendre shape functions that have different property comparing with the shape functions in conventional boundary element method. The location of nodes corresponding to high order shape function are not defined along the boundary, called by nodeless node, similar to the p-convergent finite element method. As the order of shape function increases, the collocation point method is used to solve linear simultaneous equations. The collocation patterns of p-convergent boundary element method consist of non-symmetric hierarchial or symmetric non-hierarchical. As the order of shape function increases, the number of collocation point increases. The singular integral that appears in p-convergent boundary element has been calculated by special numeric quadrature technique and semi-analytical integration technique. The L-shape domain problem including singularity in the vicinity of reentrant comer is analyzed and the numerical results show that the relative error is smaller than $10^{-2}%$ range as compared with other results in literatures. In case of same condition, the symmetric p-collocation point pattern shows high accuracy of solution.

Effects and optimum conditions of pre-reductant in the analysis of inorganic arsenic by hydride generation-atomic absorption spectrometry (HG-AAS에 의한 무기비소 분석 시 예비환원제의 최적화 조건과 분석에 미치는 영향)

  • Song, Myung Jin;Park, Kyung Su;Kim, Young Man;Lee, Won
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.396-402
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    • 2005
  • We try to look for optimum conditions of pre-reductants like L-Cysteine, KI and $FeSO_4$ when analyzing inorganic arsenic by using hydride generation-atomic absorption spectrometry, and run a comparative study of effect in the analysis of them. Also, we separated and analyzed only inorganic arsenic by using $H_2SO_4$-trap to eliminate organic arsenic which are MMA(monomethylarsonate) and DMA(dimethylarsinate). Under the conditions of mixture acid of 1.8 M HCl and 0.08 M $HNO_3$, arsenic standard solution of 20 ppb have more higher absorbance than without adding acid. In case of L-Cysteine, As(V) completely reduces into As(III) when 0.5 g of L-Cysteine is reacted more than 30 mins. in weak acid condition of approximately 0.07 M $HNO_3$ or HCl. In the event of KI, As(V) completely reduces into As(III) when 3 g of KI is reacted more than 1hour in acid condition of 0.8 M $HNO_3$. On the occasion of $FeSO_4$, the inside of tube is blocked by precipitation by mixture reaction of $NaBH_4$ and $Fe^{2+}$, therefore, comparing to other pre-reductants, reproducibility of efficiency of reducing As(V) to As(III) is low. To evaluate the accuracy of the analytical results, we use NIST SRM 1643C Trace Elements in Water ($82.1{\pm}1.2ng/mL$). The results are satisfactory.

Real-time Travel Time Estimation Model Using Point-based and Link-based Data (지점과 구간기반 자료를 활용한 실시간 통행시간 추정 모형)

  • Yu, Jeong-Whon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.155-164
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    • 2008
  • It is critical to develop a core ITS technology such as real-time travel time estimation in order that the efficient use of the ITS implementation can be achieved as the ITS infrastructure and relevant facilities are broadly installed in recent years. The provision of travel time information in real-time allows travellers to make informed decisions and hence not only the traveller's travel utilities but also the road utilization can be maximized. In this paper, a hybrid model is proposed to combine VDS and AVI which have different characteristics in terms of space and time dimensions. The proposed model can incorporate the immediacy of VDS data and the reality of AVI data into one single framework simultaneously. In addition, the solution algorithm is made to have no significant computational burden so that the model can be deployable in real world. A set of real field data is used to analyze the reliability and applicability of the proposed model. The analysis results suggest that the proposed model is very efficient computationally and improves the accuracy of the information provided, which demonstrates the real-time applicability of the proposed model. In particular, the data fusion methodology developed in this paper is expected to be used more widely when a new type of traffic data becomes available.

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Efficient Intermediate Joint Estimation using the UKF based on the Numerical Inverse Kinematics (수치적인 역운동학 기반 UKF를 이용한 효율적인 중간 관절 추정)

  • Seo, Yung-Ho;Lee, Jun-Sung;Lee, Chil-Woo
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.39-47
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    • 2010
  • A research of image-based articulated pose estimation has some problems such as detection of human feature, precise pose estimation, and real-time performance. In particular, various methods are currently presented for recovering many joints of human body. We propose the novel numerical inverse kinematics improved with the UKF(unscented Kalman filter) in order to estimate the human pose in real-time. An existing numerical inverse kinematics is required many iterations for solving the optimal estimation and has some problems such as the singularity of jacobian matrix and a local minima. To solve these problems, we combine the UKF as a tool for optimal state estimation with the numerical inverse kinematics. Combining the solution of the numerical inverse kinematics with the sampling based UKF provides the stability and rapid convergence to optimal estimate. In order to estimate the human pose, we extract the interesting human body using both background subtraction and skin color detection algorithm. We localize its 3D position with the camera geometry. Next, through we use the UKF based numerical inverse kinematics, we generate the intermediate joints that are not detect from the images. Proposed method complements the defect of numerical inverse kinematics such as a computational complexity and an accuracy of estimation.

Big Data Based Dynamic Flow Aggregation over 5G Network Slicing

  • Sun, Guolin;Mareri, Bruce;Liu, Guisong;Fang, Xiufen;Jiang, Wei
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.4717-4737
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    • 2017
  • Today, smart grids, smart homes, smart water networks, and intelligent transportation, are infrastructure systems that connect our world more than we ever thought possible and are associated with a single concept, the Internet of Things (IoT). The number of devices connected to the IoT and hence the number of traffic flow increases continuously, as well as the emergence of new applications. Although cutting-edge hardware technology can be employed to achieve a fast implementation to handle this huge data streams, there will always be a limit on size of traffic supported by a given architecture. However, recent cloud-based big data technologies fortunately offer an ideal environment to handle this issue. Moreover, the ever-increasing high volume of traffic created on demand presents great challenges for flow management. As a solution, flow aggregation decreases the number of flows needed to be processed by the network. The previous works in the literature prove that most of aggregation strategies designed for smart grids aim at optimizing system operation performance. They consider a common identifier to aggregate traffic on each device, having its independent static aggregation policy. In this paper, we propose a dynamic approach to aggregate flows based on traffic characteristics and device preferences. Our algorithm runs on a big data platform to provide an end-to-end network visibility of flows, which performs high-speed and high-volume computations to identify the clusters of similar flows and aggregate massive number of mice flows into a few meta-flows. Compared with existing solutions, our approach dynamically aggregates large number of such small flows into fewer flows, based on traffic characteristics and access node preferences. Using this approach, we alleviate the problem of processing a large amount of micro flows, and also significantly improve the accuracy of meeting the access node QoS demands. We conducted experiments, using a dataset of up to 100,000 flows, and studied the performance of our algorithm analytically. The experimental results are presented to show the promising effectiveness and scalability of our proposed approach.

Study on GNSS Constellation Combination to Improve the Current and Future Multi-GNSS Navigation Performance

  • Seok, Hyojeong;Yoon, Donghwan;Lim, Cheol Soon;Park, Byungwoon;Seo, Seung-Woo;Park, Jun-Pyo
    • Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.43-55
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    • 2015
  • In the case of satellite navigation positioning, the shielding of satellite signals is determined by the environment of the region at which a user is located, and the navigation performance is determined accordingly. The accuracy of user position determination varies depending on the dilution of precision (DOP) which is a measuring index for the geometric characteristics of visible satellites; and if the minimum visible satellites are not secured, position determination is impossible. Currently, the GLObal NAvigation Satellite system (GLONASS) of Russia is used to supplement the navigation performance of the Global Positioning System (GPS) in regions where GPS cannot be used. In addition, the European Satellite Navigation System (Galileo) of the European Union, the Chinese Satellite Navigation System (BeiDou) of China, the Quasi-Zenith Satellite System (QZSS) of Japan, and the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) of India are aimed to achieve the full operational capability (FOC) operation of the navigation system. Thus, the number of satellites available for navigation would rapidly increase, particularly in the Asian region; and when integrated navigation is performed, the improvement of navigation performance is expected to be much larger than that in other regions. To secure a stable and prompt position solution, GPS-GLONASS integrated navigation is generally performed at present. However, as available satellite navigation systems have been diversified, finding the minimum satellite constellation combination to obtain the best navigation performance has recently become an issue. For this purpose, it is necessary to examine and predict the navigation performance that could be obtained by the addition of the third satellite navigation system in addition to GPS-GLONASS. In this study, the current status of the integrated navigation performance for various satellite constellation combinations was analyzed based on 2014, and the navigation performance in 2020 was predicted based on the FOC plan of the satellite navigation system for each country. For this prediction, the orbital elements and nominal almanac data of satellite navigation systems that can be observed in the Korean Peninsula were organized, and the minimum elevation angle expecting signal shielding was established based on Matlab and the performance was predicted in terms of DOP. In the case of integrated navigation, a time offset determination algorithm needs to be considered in order to estimate the clock error between navigation systems, and it was analyzed using two kinds of methods: a satellite navigation message based estimation method and a receiver based method where a user directly performs estimation. This simulation is expected to be used as an index for the establishment of the minimum satellite constellation for obtaining the best navigation performance.

A Comparison Study of Signal Intensity of Gadolinium Contrast Media on Fast Spin echo and Ultra Short Time Echo Pulse Sequence at 3T MRI-Phantom Study (3T 자기공명영상 Fast Spin Echo (FSE)와 Ultra Short Time Echo (UTE) 펄스 시퀀스에서 가돌리늄 조영제 희석농도와 신호강도 비교 -팬텀 연구)

  • Lee, Suk-Jun;Yu, Seung-Man
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.253-259
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    • 2015
  • The information of contrast media concentration on target organ is very important to get reduce the side effect and high contrast imaging. We investigated alternation of signal intensity as a function of the modality of Gd-based contrast media on spin echo and ultra short time echo (UTE) of T1 effective pulse sequence at 3T MRI unit. Gadoxetic acid, which is a MRI T1 contrast medium, was used to manufacture an agarose phantom diluted in various molarities, and sterile water and agarose 2% were used as the buffer solution for the dilution. The gold standard T1 calculation was based on coronal single section imaging of the phantom mid-point with 2D Inversion recovery spine-echo pulse sequence MR imaging for testing of phantom accuracy. The 1-2mmol/L and 7mmol/L was shown the maximum signal intensity on spin echo and UTE respectively. We confirm the difference of contrast media concentration which was shown the maximum signal intensity depending on the T1 effective pulse sequence.

Computationally Efficient ion-Splitting Method for Monte Carlo ion Implantation Simulation for the Analysis of ULSI CMOS Characteristics (ULSI급 CMOS 소자 특성 분석을 위한 몬테 카를로 이온 주입 공정 시뮬레이션시의 효율적인 가상 이온 발생법)

  • Son, Myeong-Sik;Lee, Jin-Gu
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
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    • v.38 no.11
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    • pp.771-780
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    • 2001
  • It is indispensable to use the process and device simulation tool in order to analyze accurately the electrical characteristics of ULSI CMOS devices, in addition to developing and manufacturing those devices. The 3D Monte Carlo (MC) simulation result is not efficient for large-area application because of the lack of simulation particles. In this paper is reported a new efficient simulation strategy for 3D MC ion implantation into large-area application using the 3D MC code of TRICSI(TRansport Ions into Crystal Silicon). The strategy is related to our newly proposed split-trajectory method and ion-splitting method(ion-shadowing approach) for 3D large-area application in order to increase the simulation ions, not to sacrifice the simulation accuracy for defects and implanted ions. In addition to our proposed methods, we have developed the cell based 3D interpolation algorithm to feed the 3D MC simulation result into the device simulator and not to diverge the solution of continuous diffusion equations for diffusion and RTA(rapid thermal annealing) after ion implantation. We found that our proposed simulation strategy is very computationally efficient. The increased number of simulation ions is about more than 10 times and the increase of simulation time is not twice compared to the split-trajectory method only.

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