• 천문학회보
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.29.1-29.1
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• 2008

• 천문학회지
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• 제52권4호
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• pp.133-144
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• 2019

We develop forecast models of daily probabilities of major flares (M- and X-class) based on empirical relationships between photospheric magnetic parameters and daily flaring rates from May 2010 to April 2018. In this study, we consider ten magnetic parameters characterizing size, distribution, and non-potentiality of vector magnetic fields from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray flare data. The magnetic parameters are classified into three types: the total unsigned parameters, the total signed parameters, and the mean parameters. We divide the data into two sets chronologically: 70% for training and 30% for testing. The empirical relationships between the parameters and flaring rates are used to predict flare occurrence probabilities for a given magnetic parameter value. Major results of this study are as follows. First, major flare occurrence rates are well correlated with ten parameters having correlation coefficients above 0.85. Second, logarithmic values of flaring rates are well approximated by linear equations. Third, using total unsigned and signed parameters achieved better performance for predicting flares than the mean parameters in terms of verification measures of probabilistic and converted binary forecasts. We conclude that the total quantity of non-potentiality of magnetic fields is crucial for flare forecasting among the magnetic parameters considered in this study. When this model is applied for operational use, it can be used using the data of 21:00 TAI with a slight underestimation of 2-6.3%.

• 천문학회지
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.99-106
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• 2007

Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the relative success and accuracy of daily maximum X-ray flux (MXF) predictions, using both multilinear regression and autoregressive time-series prediction methods. As input data for this work, we used 14 solar activity parameters recorded over the prior 2 year period (1989-1990) during the solar maximum of cycle 22. We applied the multilinear regression method to the following three groups: all 14 variables (G1), the 2 so-called 'cause' variables (sunspot complexity and sunspot group area) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G2), and the 2 'effect' variables (previous day MXF and the number of flares stronger than C4 class) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G3). For the advanced three days forecast, we applied the autoregressive timeseries method to the MXF data (GT). We compared the statistical results of these groups for 1991 data, using several statistical measures obtained from a $2{\times}2$ contingency table for forecasted versus observed events. As a result, we found that the statistical results of G1 and G3 are nearly the same each other and the 'effect' variables (G3) are more reliable predictors than the 'cause' variables. It is also found that while the statistical results of GT are a little worse than those of G1 for relatively weak flares, they are comparable to each other for strong flares. In general, all statistical measures show good predictions from all groups, provided that the flares are weaker than about M5 class; stronger flares rapidly become difficult to predict well, which is probably due to statistical inaccuracies arising from their rarity. Our statistical results of all flares except for the X-class flares were confirmed by Yates' $X^2$ statistical significance tests, at the 99% confidence level. Based on our model testing, we recommend a practical strategy for solar X-ray flare predictions.

• 천문학회보
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.34.1-34.1
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• 2010

Solar proton events, whose fluxes are larger than 10 particles cm-2 sec-1 ster-1 for >10 MeV protons, have been observed since 1976. NOAA proton event list from 1997 to 2006 shows that most of the events are related to both flares and CMEs but a few fraction of events (5/93) are only related with CMEs. In this study, we carefully identified the sources of these events. For this, we used LASCO CME catalog and SOHO MDI data. First, we examined the directions of CMEs related with the events and the CMEs are found to eject from the western hemisphere. Second, we searched a major active region in the front solar disk for several days before the proton events occurred by taking into account two facts: (1) The location of the active region is consistent with the position angle of a given CME and (2) there were several flares in the active region or the active region is the largest among several candidates. As a result, we were able to determine active regions which are likely to produce proton events without ambiguity as well as their longitudes at the time of proton events by considering solar rotation rate, $13.2^{\circ}$ per day. From this study, we found that the longitudes of five active regions are all between $90^{\circ}W$ and $120^{\circ}W$. When the flare peak time is assume to be the CME event time, we confirmed that the dependence of their rise times (proton peak time - flare peak time) on longitude are consistent with the previous empirical formula. These results imply that five events should be also associated with flares which were not observed because they occurred from back-side.

• 천문학회보
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.45.2-45.2
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• 2010

We analyzed onset times of the largest six solar proton events during 1997-2006 of solar cycle 23, as observed at 1AU by two satellites of GOES/SEM (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites/the Space Environment Monitor) and SOHO/ERNE (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/the Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron). We adopted the time shifted method suggested by Leon Kocharov and determined the path length by Sam Krucker's fitting method. We found some problems of those methods and tried to improve those. In this presentation, we will give details of the energy spectra of the 6 SPE events from the ERNE/HED, and onset time comparison among the SPE, flare, type II burst, and CME.

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.87.2-87.2
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• 2012

H${\alpha}$ transient bright kernels may be an important diagnostic of energy conversion processes occurring in the choromosphere during flares. We observed an H${\alpha}$ kernel that occurred in AR 11263 in associated with a small flare on 2011 Autust 5th using the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph installed at the 1.6m New Solar Telescope of Big Bear Solar Observatory. We find that both the H${\alpha}$ line and the CaII 8542${\AA}$ line appear in emission, with a red asymmetry in that they display red wings of enhanced emission. The red asymmetry shows 5-30 km/s downward motion for 8 minutes. We determine some physical parameters by adopting the Cloud mode and discuss the physical meaning of these results.

• 천문학회보
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.70.3-70.3
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• 2019

We present a method to estimate 3-component plasma velocity (Vx, Vy and Vz) at solar photosphere near solar disk center, using the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) called Space-weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP). In Heliocentric-Cartesian Coordinates, the component of Vz is obtained from Dopplergram while the components of Vx and Vy are derived from the relation of $B_z{\overrightarrow{u}}=B_z{\overrightarrow{{\nu}_t}}-{\nu}_z{\overrightarrow{B_t}}$ (Demoulin & Berger 2003) using a series of vector magnetograms by an optical flow technique NAVE (Nonlinear Affine Velocity Estimator). This velocity measurement method is applied to AR 12158 producing an X1.6 flare along with a coronal mass ejection. We find noticeable upflow motions at both ends of flux ropes which become a major eruption part, and strong transverse motions nearby them before the eruption. We will discuss the change of plasma motions and magnetic fields before and after the eruption.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.125-134
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• 2007

이 연구에서는 태양 및 지자기 활동에 의해 발생한 우주환경변화가 우리나라 위성인 아리랑위성1호(KOMPSAT-1)의 궤도에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 인공위성의 궤도변화는 정상적인 상태에서도 자연적인 섭동에 의해 지속적으로 발생하지만, 거대한 태양폭발에 의한 지구 주변 우주환경이 급격히 변화할 때 고층대기의 밀도변화로 인해 크게 발생한다. 특히 이러한 현상은 아리랑위성 1호와 같이 저궤도 상에서 운영되는 위성에 직접적인 영향을 미친다. 이 때, 태양활동에 의한 지구 주변 우주환경의 변화는 크게 두 가지로 구분할 수 있다. 하나는 태양 플레어 (Flare)가 폭발했을 때 고에너지 복사(Radiation)로 인해 지구 고층대기가 가열되어 팽창하고 이런 결과로 고층대기에 있는 중성입자밀도가 급격히 증가하는 것이다. 다른 하나는 코로나 물질 방출(Coronal Mass Ejections) 등에 의해 발생한 지자기폭풍기간 동안 플라즈마 대류와 입자들의 하강으로 전기장이 강해져 상당량의 줄가열(Joule heating)과 하강입자가열(precipitating particle heating)이 발생하고 이로 인해 중성입자밀도가 증가하는 것이다. 두 가지 원인에 대한 영향을 구분하여 알아보기 위해, 우리는 태양 및 지자기 자료를 면밀히 분석하여 2001년에서 2002년 동안 5개의 기간을 선정하였다. 그 결과 위성의 대기저항가속도는 태양의 극자외선(Extreme Ultra-Violet)의 증가와 함께 약 하루 정도의 시간 지연을 가지고 유사하게 변화하고 있음을 확인하였다(R=0.92). 그리고 지자기폭풍이 발생한 기간동안 대기저항가속도는 지자기폭풍에 의한 Dst 변화와 상당히 유사하게 그리고 거의 동시에 급격히 변화하는 것을 확인하였다. 마지막으로 우리는 위성의 대기저항가속도의 변화는 전반적으로는 오랜 기간 동안 고에너지 복사에 의한 효과로 나타나고 있으나 짧은 기간(하루 미만) 동안 크게 발생하는 대기저항가속도의 변화는 지자기폭풍에 의한 효과로 보고 있다.

• 천문학회보
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.32.1-32.1
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• 2010

KASI's Solar and Space Weather Research Group (SSWRG) is actively involved in solar and space weather research. Since its inception, the SSWRG has been utilizing ground-based assets for its research, such as the Solar Flare Telescope, Solar Imaging Spectrograph, and Sunspot Telescope. In 2007 SSWRG initiated the Korean Space Weather Prediction Center (KSWPC). The goal of KSWPC is to extend the current ground observation capabilities, construct space weather database and networking, develop prediction models, and expand space weather research. Beginning in 2010, SSWRG plans to expand its research activities by collaborating with new international partners, continuing the development of space weather prediction models and forecast system, and phasing into developing and launching space-based assets. In this talk, we will report on KASI's recent activities of international collaborations with NASA for STEREO (Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory), SDO (Solar Dynamic Observatory), and Radiation Belt Storm Probe (RBSP).

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.91-99
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• 2015

The Korean Solar Radio Burst Locator (KSRBL) is a solar radio spectrograph observing the broad frequency range from 0.245 to 18 GHz with the capability of locating wideband gyrosynchrotron bursts. Due to the characteristics of a spiral feed, the beam center varies in a spiral pattern with frequency, making a modulation pattern over the wideband spectrum. After a calibration process, we obtained dynamic spectra consistent with the Nobeyama Radio Polarimeter (NoRP). We compared and analyzed the locations of bursts observed by KSRBL with results from the Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH) and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). As a result, we found that the KSRBL provides the ability to locate flaring sources on the Sun within around 2'.