• Title/Summary/Keyword: situation model

Search Result 2,894, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Uncertainty of Agricultural product Prices by Information Entropy Model using Probability Distribution for Monthly Prices (월별 가격의 확률분포를 이용한 정보엔트로피 모델에 의한 농산물가격의 불확정성)

  • Eun, Sang-Kyu;Jung, Nam-Su;Lee, Jeong-Jae;Bae, Yeong-Joung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.54 no.2
    • /
    • pp.7-14
    • /
    • 2012
  • To analyze any given situation, it is necessary to have information on elements which affect the situation. Particularly, there is greater variability in both frequency and magnitude of agricultural product prices as they are affected by various unpredictable factors such as weather conditions etc. This is the reason why it is difficult for the farmers to maintain their stable income through agricultural production and marketing. In this research, attempts are made to quantify the entropy of various situations inherent in the price changes so that the stability of farmers' income can be increased. Through this research, we developed an entropy model which can quantify the uncertainties of price changes using the probability distribution of price changes. The model was tested for its significance by comparing its simulation outcomes with actual ranges and standard deviations of price variations of the past using monthly agricultural product prices data. We confirmed that the simulation results reflected the features of the ranges and standard deviations of actual price variations. Also, it is possible for us to predict standard deviations for changed prices which will occur after a certain time using the information entropy obtained from relevant agricultural product price data before the time.

A Proposed Method for Estimating Demand function of Cournot Model in Electricity Market (전력시장에서의 쿠르노 수요함수 추정)

  • Kang, Dong-Joo;Hur, Jin;Oh, Tae-Kyoo;Chung, Koo-Hyung;Kim, Bal-Ho H.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
    • /
    • 2005.11b
    • /
    • pp.168-170
    • /
    • 2005
  • At present Cournot model is one of the most commonly used theories to analyze the gaming situation in oligopoly market. But there exist several problems to apply this model to electricity market. The representative one is to obtain the inverse demand curve able to be induced from the relationship between market price and demand response. In Cournot model, each player offers their generation quantity to accomplish maximum profit, which is accomplished by reducing their quantity compared with available total capacity. As stated above, to obtain the probable Cournot equilibrium to reflect real market situation, we have to induce the correct demand function first of all. Usually the correlation between price and demand appears on the long-term basis through the statistical data analysis (for example, regression analysis) or by investigating consumer utility functions of several consumer groups classified as residential, industrial, and commercial. However, the elasticity has a tendency to change continuously according to the total market demand size or the level of market price. Therefore it should be updated as trading period passes by. In this paper we propose a method for inducing and updating this price elasticity of demand function for more realistic market equilibrium

  • PDF

A Conceptual Data Model for a 3D Cadastre in Korea

  • Lee, Ji-Yeong;Koh, June-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.25 no.6_1
    • /
    • pp.565-574
    • /
    • 2007
  • Because of most current cadastral systems maintain 2D geometric descriptions of parcels linked to administrative records, the system may not reflect current tendency to use space above and under the surface. The land has been used in multi-levels, e.g. constructions of multi-used complex buildings, subways and infrastructure above/under the ground. This cadastre situation of multilevel use of lands cannot be defined as cadastre objects (2D parcel-based) in the cadastre systems. This trend has requested a new system in which right to land is clearly and indisputably recorded because a right of ownership on a parcel relates to a space in 3D, not any more relates to 2D surface area. Therefore, this article proposes a 3D spatial data model to represent geometrical and topological data of 3D (property) situation on multilevel uses of lands in 3D cadastre systems, and a conceptual 3D cadastral model in Korea to design a conceptual schema for a 3D cadastre. Lastly, this paper presents the results of an experimental implementation of the 3D Cadastre to perform topological analyses based on 3D Network Data Model to identify spatial neighbors.

Travel Time Forecasting in an Interrupted Traffic Flow by adopting Historical Profile and Time-Space Data Fusion (히스토리컬 프로파일 구축과 시.공간 자료합성에 의한 단속류 통행시간 예측)

  • Yeo, Tae-Dong;Han, Gyeong-Su;Bae, Sang-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.133-144
    • /
    • 2009
  • In Korea, the ITS project has been progressed to improve traffic mobility and safety. Further, it is to relieve traffic jam by supply real time travel information for drivers and to promote traffic convenience and safety. It is important that the traffic information is provided accurately. This study was conducted outlier elimination and missing data adjustment to improve accuracy of raw data. A method for raise reliability of travel time prediction information was presented. We developed Historical Profile model and adjustment formula to reflect quality of interrupted flow. We predicted travel time by developed Historical Profile model and adjustment formula and verified by comparison between developed model and existing model such as Neural Network model and Kalman Filter model. The results of comparative analysis clarified that developed model and Karlman Filter model similarity predicted in general situation but developed model was more accurate than other models in incident situation.

Forecasting Probability of Precipitation Using Morkov Logistic Regression Model

  • Park, Jeong-Soo;Kim, Yun-Seon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-9
    • /
    • 2007
  • A three-state Markov logistic regression model is suggested to forecast the probability of tomorrow's precipitation based on the current meteorological situation. The suggested model turns out to be better than Markov regression model in the sense of the mean squared error of forecasting for the rainfall data of Seoul area.

Structural Damage Identification by Using the Structurally Damped Spectral Element Model (구조감쇠가 고려된 스펙트럴요소 모델을 이용한 구조손상규명)

  • Kim, Jung-Soo;Cho, Joo-Yong;Lee, U-Sik
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
    • /
    • 2004.10a
    • /
    • pp.121-126
    • /
    • 2004
  • In this paper, a nonlinear structural damage identification algorithm is derived by taking into account the structurally damped spectral element model thinking over a real situation. The structural damage identification analyses are conducted by using the Newton-Raphson method. It is found that, in general Structural Damage Identification by using the Structurally Damped Spectral Element Model provides the same exact damage identification results when compared with the results obtained by the structurally undamped spectral model.

  • PDF

A Study on the Design of Economic Production Quantity Model with Partial Backorders (부분부재고를 갖는 경제적 생산량모형의 설계에 관한 연구)

  • 이강우;이꾸따세이조
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.18 no.36
    • /
    • pp.93-103
    • /
    • 1995
  • This paper des with an economic production quantity model with partial backorders for the situation in which production lead time is deterministic and demand during lead time follows a continuous distribution. In the model, an objective function is formulated In minimize an average annual inventory cost. And then the procedure of iterative solution method for the model is developed to find both production reorder point and production quantity. Finally, sensitivity analysis for various partial backorder ratios and standard deviations of demand during production lead time are presented.

  • PDF

A Stochastic Partial Backorder Inventory System with a Exponential Backorder Ratio (지수 비재고비율을 갖는 효율적 부분비재고시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Kang-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.71-80
    • /
    • 1996
  • This paper presents a stochastic partial inventory model for the situation in which demand is deterministic, lead time follows normal distribution and backorder ratio during the stockout period decreases exponentially according to the length of backorder period. In this situation, an objective function is formulated to minimize the average annual cost, which is the sum of the ordering, carrying time-proportional backordering, quantity-proportional backordering and lost sales costs. And then the procedure of iterative solution method for the model is developed to find optimal reorder point and order quantity and numerical example to illustrate the proposed method is presented.

  • PDF

A Contingency Model of the Strategic Information Systems Planning (전략정보시스템 계획수립을 위한 상황모델)

  • Han, Jae-Min;Mun, Tae-Su
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • v.3 no.1
    • /
    • pp.190-213
    • /
    • 1993
  • The information revolution is sweeping through the global economy. Information technology is transforming the structure of competition. The successful implementation of information technology is dependent on the effectiveness of information systems planning. However, it is very difficult to select an appropriate methodology for information systems planning given an organization situation. A contingency model is proposed on the selection of an appropriate approach depending upon the organizational situation. Although the contingency framework is not yet theoretically proved, the approaches suggested here turned out to be of benefit to the cases of the two real world projects studied. These approaches attempt to combine Business Systems Planning of IBM and Critical Success Factors in two different manners to make planning process more efficient and effective.

  • PDF

Emergency Detection Method using Motion History Image for a Video-based Intelligent Security System

  • Lee, Jun;Lee, Se-Jong;Park, Jeong-Sik;Seo, Yong-Ho
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
    • /
    • v.1 no.2
    • /
    • pp.39-42
    • /
    • 2012
  • This paper proposed a method that detects emergency situations in a video stream using MHI (Motion History Image) and template matching for a video-based intelligent security system. The proposed method creates a MHI of each human object through image processing technique such as background removing based on GMM (Gaussian Mixture Model), labeling and accumulating the foreground images, then the obtained MHI is compared with the existing MHI templates for detecting an emergency situation. To evaluate the proposed emergency detection method, a set of experiments on the dataset of video clips captured from a security camera has been conducted. And we successfully detected emergency situations using the proposed method. In addition, the implemented system also provides MMS (Multimedia Message Service) so that a security manager can deal with the emergency situation appropriately.