• Title/Summary/Keyword: significance probability

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An Approach for the Estimation of Mixture Distribution Parameters Using EM Algorithm (복합확률분포의 파라메타 추정을 위한 EM 알고리즘의 적용 연구)

  • Daeyoung Shim;SangGu Kim
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.35-47
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    • 2023
  • Various single probability distributions have been used to represent time headway distributions. However, it has often been difficult to explain the time headway distribution as a single probability distribution on site. This study used the EM algorithm, which is one of the maximum likelihood estimations, for the parameters of combined mixture distributions with a certain relationship between two normal distributions for the time headway of vehicles. The time headway distribution of vehicle arrival is difficult to represent well with previously known single probability distributions. But as a result of this analysis, it can be represented by estimating the parameters of the mixture probability distribution using the EM algorithm. The result of a goodness-of-fit test was statistically significant at a significance level of 1%, which proves the reliability of parameter estimation of the mixture probability distribution using the EM algorithm.

Study of the Impact of Light Through the Vitamin $B_{12}$/Folate Inspection (Vitamin $B_{12}$/Folate 검사 시 빛의 영향에 대한 고찰)

  • Cho, Eun Bit;Pack, Song Ran;Kim, Whe Jung;Kim, Seong Ho;Yoo, Seon Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.162-166
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    • 2012
  • Purpose : Vitamin $B_{12}$ and Folate are for anemia work-up which is well known for its sensitivity of light; the screening manual also specifies to be careful with light conditions. According to this, our laboratory minimized the exposure of light when inspecting the Vitamin $B_{12}$ and Folate, but the exposure cannot be wholly blocked due to other various factors such as when conducting specimen segregation. Thus, this inspection is to identify to what extent light can influence and whether the exclusion of light is mandatory during the Vitamin $B_{12}$/Folate test. Materials and Methods : We have conducted two experiments of identifying the extent of light's influence when conducting the Vitamin $B_{12}$/Folate test and also when specimens are under preservation. These experiments were progressed with various concentrations of patients' specimens which were requested to our hospital in March 2012. The first experiment is to verify the results on Vitamin $B_{12}$/Folate dependent on light exposure during the experiment. In the process, we have compared the results of light exposure/exclusion during the incubation process after the reagent division. The second experiment is about the impact of light exposure on the results on Vitamin $B_{12}$/Folate during the preservation. For 1, 2, 7 days the light on the specimen were wholly blocked and were preserved under $-15^{\circ}C$ temperature refrigeration. Then, we compared the results of light-excluded specimen and the exposed one. Results : When conducting first experiment, there were no noticeable changes in the Standard and specimen's cpm, but for Vitamin $B_{12}$, the average result of specimen exposed to light increased 7.8% compare to that of excluded one's. Furthermore, in the significant level 0.05, the significance probability or the p-value was 0.251 which means it has no impact. For Folate, the result being exposed to light decreased 5.4%, the significance probability was 0.033 which means it has little impact. For the second preservation, the result was dependent on the light exposure. The first day of preservation of Vitamin $B_{12}$, the clinical material exposed to light was 11.6%, second day clinical material exposed to light was 10.8%, seventh day clinical material exposed to light increased 3.8%, the significance probability of the $1^{st}$, $2^{nd}$, $7^{th}$ day is 0.372, 0.033, 0.144 respectively, and which indicates that the $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ day seems to have no impact. For Folate's case, the clinical material exposed to light has increased 1.4% but hardly had impact, $2^{nd}$ day clinical material being exposed to light was 6.1%, $7^{Th}$ day clinical material being exposed to light decreased 5.2%. The significance probability of Folate on the $1^{st}$, $2^{nd}$, $7^{th}$ day is 0.378, 0.037, 0.217 respectively, and the $1^{st}$ day and the $7^{th}$ day seems to have no impact. Conclusion : After scrutinizing the impact of light exposure/exclusion, Vitamin $B_{12}$ has no impact, while Folate seems to have no noticeable influence but light exclusion is recommended due to its significance probability of 0.033 when conducting experiment. During the preservation, the $2^{nd}$ day result depend on the light exclusion seems to have impact or influence. However, to consider the complication of the experimental process, the experiment including technical errors is predictable. Hence, it is likely to have no impact of light. Nevertheless, it is recommendable to exclude the light during the long preservation as per the significance probability (p-value) of $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ day has been diminished.

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Approximate Cell Loss Performance in ATM Networks: In Comparison with Exact Results

  • Lee, Hoon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.25 no.4A
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    • pp.489-495
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    • 2000
  • In this paper we propose an approximate method to estimate the cell loss probability(CLP) due to buffer overflow in ATM networks. The main idea is to relate the buffer capacity with the CLP target in explicit formula by using the approximate upper bound for the tail distribution of a queue. The significance of the proposition lies in the fact that we can obtain the expected CLP by using only the source traffic data represented by mean rate and its variance. To that purpose we consider the problem of estimating the cell loss measures form the statistical viewpoint such that the probability of cell loss due to buffer overflow does not exceed a target value. In obtaining the exact solution we use a typical matrix analytic method for GI/D/1B queue where B is the queue size. Finally, in order to investigate the accuracy of the result, we present both the approximate and exact results of the numerical computation and give some discussion.

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Determining the Decision Limit of CUSUM Chart for A Fixed Sample Size

  • Kang, Chang Wook;Hawkins, Donglas M.
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 1992
  • When we compare different control charting schemes, the average run length of each control chart is usually used. The use of the average run length implies that there is unbounded number of samples or observations. The regression recursive residuals, however, have been applied to the cumulative sum chart to detect whether the mean or variance changes. To implement choice of decision interval, we calculate the probability that certain fixed number of control statistics stay in the in-control state. This probability can be used as the significance level of a test for detecting the change in the residual mean or variance of the data with a finite number of observations.

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miRNA Pattern Discovery from Sequence Alignment

  • Sun, Xiaohan;Zhang, Junying
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.1527-1543
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    • 2017
  • MiRNA is a biological short sequence, which plays a crucial role in almost all important biological process. MiRNA patterns are common sequence segments of multiple mature miRNA sequences, and they are of significance in identifying miRNAs due to the functional implication in miRNA patterns. In the proposed approach, the primary miRNA patterns are produced from sequence alignment, and they are then cut into short segment miRNA patterns. From the segment miRNA patterns, the candidate miRNA patterns are selected based on estimated probability, and from which, the potential miRNA patterns are further selected according to the classification performance between authentic and artificial miRNA sequences. Three parameters are suggested that bi-nucleotides are employed to compute the estimated probability of segment miRNA patterns, and top 1% segment miRNA patterns of length four in the order of estimated probabilities are selected as potential miRNA patterns.

Uncertainty of Agricultural product Prices by Information Entropy Model using Probability Distribution for Monthly Prices (월별 가격의 확률분포를 이용한 정보엔트로피 모델에 의한 농산물가격의 불확정성)

  • Eun, Sang-Kyu;Jung, Nam-Su;Lee, Jeong-Jae;Bae, Yeong-Joung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2012
  • To analyze any given situation, it is necessary to have information on elements which affect the situation. Particularly, there is greater variability in both frequency and magnitude of agricultural product prices as they are affected by various unpredictable factors such as weather conditions etc. This is the reason why it is difficult for the farmers to maintain their stable income through agricultural production and marketing. In this research, attempts are made to quantify the entropy of various situations inherent in the price changes so that the stability of farmers' income can be increased. Through this research, we developed an entropy model which can quantify the uncertainties of price changes using the probability distribution of price changes. The model was tested for its significance by comparing its simulation outcomes with actual ranges and standard deviations of price variations of the past using monthly agricultural product prices data. We confirmed that the simulation results reflected the features of the ranges and standard deviations of actual price variations. Also, it is possible for us to predict standard deviations for changed prices which will occur after a certain time using the information entropy obtained from relevant agricultural product price data before the time.

A study on the impact prediction in environmental impact statement (환경영향평가서 영향예측에 대한 연구)

  • 이영경
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.89-100
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    • 1997
  • The purpose of this paper was to analyze the content of impact prediction in EISS, in order to find the degree of the acuracy of impact prediction . 30 EISS were selected as analysis objects through variance miximization strategy. Content analysis of the selected EISS was performed by 5 analysis items, such as quantification of measurement, range of impact area, time frame of impact, likelihood of impact, and explict characterization of impact significance. The results showed that the accuracy investigated by the 5 items was very low. In conclusion, 5 suggestions were proposed in order to improve the credibility of EIS as a scientific report. The 5 suggestions were : 1) impact prediction should be described by quantitative measurement; 2) In establishing the time frame of the impact and the referent populatioin influenced by the impact, the characteristics of the proposed action should be carefully considerd; 3) the significance of the predicted impact should be quantitatively described; 4) specific description should also be used in the likelihood or the probability of the predicted impact in a real world; 5) equal emphasis should be put on the three environment, including natural and social as well as living environment.

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An Analysis of Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment to ASEAN+3 Member Nations (ASEAN+3회원국에 대한 해외직접투자 결정요인 분석)

  • Son, Yong-Jung
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2009
  • This study analysed determinants of Foreign Direct Investment to ASEAN+ 3 member nations using panel data for which cross-sectional data are combined with time series data. The data for the analysis included the amount of FDI, GDP, and indexes of economic independence. This study collected data from six nations(Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) whose data were easily available, China and Japan from 2003 to 2007 and analysed them. The results are summarized as follows: Using the pooled OLS method, we found Model 2 had the highest explanatory power whose adjusted R-squared was 89.4%, which accounted for about 89% of foreign investment. Using the fixed effect model, Model 2 had the highest explanatory power whose adjusted R-squared was 96.8%, which accounted for about 97% of foreign investment. Using the probability effect model, Model 5 had the highest explanatory power, but in respect to its statistical significance, only GDP was 1% significant and the rest variables had no significance.

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Cubic normal distribution and its significance in structural reliability

  • Zhao, Yan-Gang;Lu, Zhao-Hui
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.263-280
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    • 2008
  • Information on the distribution of the basic random variable is essential for the accurate analysis of structural reliability. The usual method for determining the distributions is to fit a candidate distribution to the histogram of available statistical data of the variable and perform approximate goodness-of-fit tests. Generally, such candidate distribution would have parameters that may be evaluated from the statistical moments of the statistical data. In the present paper, a cubic normal distribution, whose parameters are determined using the first four moments of available sample data, is investigated. A parameter table based on the first four moments, which simplifies parameter estimation, is given. The simplicity, generality, flexibility and advantages of this distribution in statistical data analysis and its significance in structural reliability evaluation are discussed. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate these advantages.

Probability and statistics in public secondary school teacher employment exam (확률 및 통계와 교원임용시험)

  • Oh, Kwangsik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1539-1545
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we analyze and discuss the trend of the probability and statistics problems that have been made in the public secondary school teacher employment exam for mathematics teachers. In order to properly teach the national mathematics curriculum in 2015 in terms of content and function, we investigate the probability and statistics contents that a mathematics teachers should know. We also analyze the contents and trends of the items that have been submitted for 15 years in public secondary school teacher employment exam, and discuss the contents, scope, level and direction of the future contents. In conclusion, considering the significance of the Big Data in the 4th industrial revolution, the problems of statistical thinking of data and probability, exploratory data analysis, sample survey, and statistical inference are needed more.