• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.1301-1309
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• 2017

The extinction probability of a branching process (a neutron chain in a multiplying medium) is calculated for a system randomly varying in time. The evolution of the first two moments of such a process was calculated previously by the authors in a system randomly shifting between two states of different multiplication properties. The same model is used here for the investigation of the extinction probability. It is seen that the determination of the extinction probability is significantly more complicated than that of the moments, and it can only be achieved by pure numerical methods. The numerical results indicate that for systems fluctuating between two subcritical or two supercritical states, the extinction probability behaves as expected, but for systems fluctuating between a supercritical and a subcritical state, there is a crucial and unexpected deviation from the predicted behaviour. The results bear some significance not only for neutron chains in a multiplying medium, but also for the evolution of biological populations in a time-varying environment.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.110-128
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• 2021

Purpose - The essential purpose of this study is to analyze the possibility of substitution of an individual job resulting from technological development represented by the 4th Industrial Resolution, considering the different effects of digital transformation on the labor market. Design/methodology - In order to estimate the substitution probability, this study used two data sets which the job characteristics data for individual occupations provided by KEIS and the information on occupational status of substitution provided by Frey and Osborne(2013). In total, 665 occupations were considered in this study. Of these, 80 occupations had data with labels of substitution status. The primary goal of estimation was to predict the degree of substitution for 607 of 665 occupations (excluding 58 with markers). It utilized three methods a principal component analysis, an unsupervised learning methodology of machine learning, and Ridge and Lasso from supervised learning methodology. After extracting significant variables based on the three methods, this study carried out logistics regression to estimate the probability of substitution for each occupation. Findings - The probability of substitution for other occupational groups did not significantly vary across individual models, and the rank order of the probabilities across occupational groups were similar across models. The mean of three methods of substitution probability was analyzed to be 45.3%. The highest value was obtained using the PCA method, and the lowest value was derived from the LASSO method. The average substitution probability of the trading industry was 45.1%, very similar to the overall average. Originality/value - This study has a significance in that it estimates the job substitution probability using various machine learning methods. The results of substitution probability estimation were compared by industry sector. In addition, This study attempts to compare between trade business and industry sector.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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• v.45 no.5
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• pp.641-649
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• 2015

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to introduce the main concepts of statistical testing and effect size and to provide researchers in nursing science with guidance on how to calculate the effect size for the statistical analysis methods mainly used in nursing. Methods: For t-test, analysis of variance, correlation analysis, regression analysis which are used frequently in nursing research, the generally accepted definitions of the effect size were explained. Results: Some formulae for calculating the effect size are described with several examples in nursing research. Furthermore, the authors present the required minimum sample size for each example utilizing G*Power 3 software that is the most widely used program for calculating sample size. Conclusion: It is noted that statistical significance testing and effect size measurement serve different purposes, and the reliance on only one side may be misleading. Some practical guidelines are recommended for combining statistical significance testing and effect size measure in order to make more balanced decisions in quantitative analyses.

• Culinary science and hospitality research
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.119-133
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• 2008

This study researched the effect of initial expenses for food service business and shop characteristics on the motive of starting business through questionnaires(from April to May, 2008). The results are as follows. First, for the hypothesis, 'the motive of starting business depends on its initial expenses', the significance probability of good commercial area was .015 and that of retirement was .020, showing statistically significant difference. F values were 2,889 and 2.734 each, which showed significant difference by 0.001. Second, for the hypothesis, 'the motive of starting business depends on shop characteristics', the significance probability of the accomplishment desire, the future stability and the retirement were .011, .009, and .025 each, showing statistically significant difference. F values were 2,616, 3.034 and 3.177 each, showing significant difference by .001. Lastly, initial expenses for business and shop characteristics showed significant difference according to the demographical variables on the motive of starting business. This study shows the problem of starting business with no extra funds. It is important to reflect the opinions of founders about the commercial building lease protection law for them to concentrate on business. The founders should research for menu and systems and be aware of the tendency of the industry for sure.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.105-118
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• 2024

In order to realize tiny bridge crack discovery by UAV-based machine vision, a novel method combining deep learning and tensor voting is proposed. Firstly, the grid images of crack are detected and descripted based on SE-ResNet50 to generate feature points. Then, the probability significance map of crack image is calculated by tensor voting with feature points, which can define the direction and region of crack. Further, the crack detection anchor box is formed by non-maximum suppression from the probability significance map, which can improve the robustness of tiny crack detection. Finally, a case study is carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in the Xiangjiang-River bridge inspection. Compared with the original tensor voting algorithm, the proposed method has higher accuracy in the situation of only 1-2 pixels width crack and the existence of edge blur, crack discontinuity, which is suitable for UAV-based bridge crack discovery.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.593-604
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• 2020

Temperature may have more significant influences on structural responses than operational loads or structural damage. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of temperature distributions has great significance for proper design and maintenance of bridges. In this study, the temperature distribution of the steel box girder is systematically investigated based on the structural health monitoring system (SHMS) of the Sutong Cable-stayed Bridge. Specifically, the characteristics of the temperature and temperature difference between different measurement points are studied based on field temperature measurements. Accordingly, the probability density distributions of the temperature and temperature difference are calculated statistically, which are further described by the general formulas. The results indicate that: (1) the temperature and temperature difference exhibit distinct seasonal characteristics and strong periodicity, and the temperature and temperature difference among different measurement points are strongly correlated, respectively; (2) the probability density of the temperature difference distribution presents strong non-Gaussian characteristics; (3) the probability density function of temperature can be described by the weighted sum of four Normal distributions. Meanwhile, the temperature difference can be described by the weighted sum of Weibull distribution and Normal distribution.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.193-202
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• 2018

This paper studied the probability of pounding occurred between decks and abutments of a long span high-pier continuous rigid fame bridge subjected to ground motions with local soil effect. A pounding probability analysis methodology has been proposed using peak acceleration at bedrock as intensity measure (IM) for multi-support seismic analysis. The bridge nonlinear finite element (FE) models was built with four different separation distances. Effect of actual site condition and non-uniform spatial soil profiles on seismic wave propagating from bedrock to ground surface is modelled. Pounding probability of the high-pier bridge under multi-support seismic excitations (MSSE) is analyzed based on the nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis (n-IDA). Pounding probability results under uniform excitations (UE) without actual local site effect are compared with that under MSSE with site effect. The study indicates that the required design separation length between deck and abutment under uniform excitations is larger than that under MSSE as the peak acceleration at bedrock increases. As the increase of both separation distance between deck and abutment and the peak acceleration, the probability of pounding occurred at a single abutment or at two abutments simultaneously under MSSE is less than that under UE. It is of great significance considering actual local site effect for determining the separation distance between deck and abutment through the probability pounding analysis of the high-pier bridge under MSSE.

• Korean Journal of Microbiology
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.263-267
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• 2011

Genomic fingerprinting methods are useful in determining relatedness among bacterial strains. However, random coincidences in sizes of two DNA fragments in two different fingerprints may occur, resulting in erroneous interpretation of relatedness between two bacterial genomes. In this study, I estimated the probability of occurrence of DNA bands of identical size in fingerprints of two unrelated genomes, so that the significance of fingerprint-based estimation of genome relatedness could be analyzed. The probability could be estimated as outputs of a function formulated with the three parameters: the numbers of observed fragments, all possible sizes of fragments and observed fragments common in a given pair of fingerprints. The parameter most instrumental to significance of relatedness estimation was the number of all possible sizes of fragments. To keep the number of coincidentally-common size of fragments below 10, about 200 fragments should be distinguishable in the fingerprints.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.15 no.7
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• pp.1015-1020
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• 2021

This study retrospectively analyzed the test results of 113 healthy postmenopausal women without special diseases among patients who visited a medical institution in Busan from January 2020 to June 2021. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of BMI (Body Mass Index) on bone density in menopause women, the analysis of the lumbar and femur of patients with low weight (BMI<18.5) showed a significant probability (p-value) of 0.000, and the normal weight (18.5≦BMI<23.0) of the femur. In overweight (23.0≦BMI<25.0), the significance probability (p-value) of the lumbar region was 0.021 and the significance probability (p-value) of the femur was 0.034, confirming the correlation. However, in patients with high obesity (30.0≦BMI<40.0), the p-value of the lumbar region was 0.127, and the p-value of the femur was 0.093, indicating that there was no correlation between BMI and bone density.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.1-18
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• 2001

The purpose of the present study was to assess the agreement of survival probability estimated by International Classification of Diseases l0th Edition(ICD-10) based International Classification of Diseases based Injury Severity Score(ICISS) with professional panel's judgment on preventable death. ICISS has a promise as an alternative to Trauma and Injury Severity Score(TRISS) which have served as a standard measure of trauma severity, but requires more validation studies. Furthermore as original version of ICISS was based ICD-9CM, it is necessary to test its performance employing ICD-10 which has been used in Korea and is expected to replace ICD-9 in many countries sooner or later. Methods : For 1997 and 1998 131 trauma deaths and 1,785 blunt trauma inpatients from 6 emergency medical centers were randomly sampled and reviewed. Trauma deaths were reviewed by professional panels with hospital records and survival probability of trauma inpatients was assessed using ICD-10 based ICISS. For trauma mortality degree of agreement between ICISS survival probability with judgment of professional panel on preventable death was assessed and correlation between W-score and preventable death rate by each emergency medical center was assessed. Results : Overall agreement rate of ICISS survival probability with preventable death judged by professional panel was 66.4%(kappa statistic 0.36). Spearman's correlation coefficient between W-score and preventable death rate by each emergency medical center was -0.77(p=0.07) and Pearson's correlation coefficient between them was -0.90(p=0.01). Conclusions : The agreement rate of ICD-10 based ICISS survival probability with of professional panel's judgment on preventable death was similar to TRISS. The W-scores of emergency medical centers derived from ICD-10 based ICISS were highly correlated with preventable death rates of them with marginal statistical significance.