• 제목/요약/키워드: serial dependence

검색결과 27건 처리시간 0.059초

Foreign Exchange Return Predictability: Rational Expectations Risk Premium vs. Expectational Errors

  • Moon, Seongman
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.467-505
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    • 2018
  • We propose a simple identification scheme for the causes of the violations of uncovered interest parity. Our method uses the serial dependence patterns of excess returns as a criterion for judging performance of economic models. We show that a mean reverting component in excess returns, representing a violation of uncovered interest parity, mainly contributes to generating different serial dependence patterns of excess returns: rational expectations risk premium models tend to generate negative serial dependence of excess returns, while expectational errors models tend to generate positive serial dependence.

Effects of Overdispersion on Testing for Serial Dependence in the Time Series of Counts Data

  • Kim, Hee-Young;Park, You-Sung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제17권6호
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    • pp.829-843
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    • 2010
  • To test for the serial dependence in time series of counts data, Jung and Tremayne (2003) evaluated the size and power of several tests under the class of INARMA models based on binomial thinning operations for Poisson marginal distributions. The overdispersion phenomenon(i.e., a variance greater than the expectation) is common in the real world. Overdispersed count data can be modeled by using alternative thinning operations such as random coefficient thinning, iterated thinning, and quasi-binomial thinning. Such thinning operations can lead to time series models of counts with negative binomial or generalized Poisson marginal distributions. This paper examines whether the test statistics used by Jung and Tremayne (2003) on serial dependence in time series of counts data are affected by overdispersion.

동적공간패널모형을 이용한 지역 실업률 결정요인 분석 (Analysis of Determinants of Regional Unemployment Rate Using Dynamic Spatial Panel Model)

  • 김소연;류수열
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.277-288
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study analyzed the determinants of local unemployment rate in Korea using panel data from 16 metropolitan cities and provinces from 2000 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach - We use a dynamic spatial panel model that considers characteristics of the regional unemployment rate such as the common factors effect, spatial dependence, and serial correlations. Findings - The local unemployment rate is affected by the past and present values of the national unemployment rate. And it is significantly affected by the past local unemployment rate and the past neighboring unemployment rate because spatial dependence and serial correlations are clearly present. In addition, when the industrial structure diversity and labor productivity were high, the regional unemployment rate decreased, and when the education level was high, the regional unemployment rate increased. Research implications or Originality - In order to reduce regional unemployment rate, it is necessary to plan and establish regional customized industrial structure policies under the stance of diversification rather than specializing the regional industrial structure and accompany improvement of the quality of education with the number of years of education. In addition, the redistribution of labor from low labor productivity sectors to high labor productivity sectors through technology development will help to reduce the local unemployment rate.

선호의식 Panel Data를 이용한 동적 경로선택 행동분석 (Behavioral Analysis of Dynamic Route Choice with Stated Preference Panel Data)

  • 성수련;남궁문
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.47-60
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    • 1999
  • 본 연구에서는 운전자의 동적 경로선택 행동은 현재의 교통환경 조건뿐만 아니라 과거의 교통환경 및 행동이 현재와 미래에 영향을 미친다는 가정 하에 전주시에 제공될 교통정보를 가상으로 설정하여 선호의식 조사방법에 의해 동일 개인 운전자에게 다시점 반복조사를 실시하였으며, 구조방정식 모델을 구축하여 분석하였다. 그 결과 여행시간정보 변수의 추정계수 및 t 통계 값이 크게 나타나 경로선택에 큰 영향을 미침을 알 수 있었으며, 도심을 관통하는 기린로는 경로선택에 부정적인 반면 도심의 우회도로의 성격을 지닌 천변로는 경로선 택에 긍정적으로 나타남을 알 수 있었다. 구축된 모델에서 가장 적합도가 높은 모델은 상태의존과 계열상관의 개념을 모두 적용한 모델로 나타나 동적모델의 적용 타당성이 보여짐을 알 수 있었으며, 계열상관과 상태의존 추정계수 값을 보면 시간간격이 길수록 추정계수 값이 작게 나타나고 있어 계열상관과 상태의존은 시간간격에 반비례함을 알 수 있었다.

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우리나라 소득불평등에 도시화가 미치는 영향 분석: 지니계수의 시차 자기상관, 공간의존성, 공통요인 효과를 고려하여 (An Analysis of Impact of Urbanization on Income Inequality in Korea: Considering Serial Correlations, Spatial Dependence and Common Factor Effect)

  • 김소연;류수열
    • 한국경제지리학회지
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.310-323
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    • 2023
  • 도시화 현상과 소득분배 문제는 세계적 관심사이며, 소득불평등에 도시화가 미치는 영향에 대한 연구들의 결과는 분석 국가와 기간마다 상이하게 나타났다. 본 연구는 2000-2021년 기간의 지역 데이터를 사용하여 우리나라 소득불평등에 도시화가 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 특히 지니계수에 시차 자기상관과 공간의존성 및 공통요인 효과가 존재함을 확인하고, 이를 고려한 동적공간패널회귀모형을 통해 분석하였다. 추정 결과, 지역의 도시화는 소득불평등 감소에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 소득분배 문제의 개선을 위해 지역별 도시화를 지속적으로 추진할 필요가 있으며, 이미 도시화율이 높은 지역은 저숙련 노동자의 교육훈련 기회 확대로 임금격차를 줄임으로써 소득불평등을 감소시켜야 하며, 도시화 종착 단계에서 발생할 수 있는 역도시화 현상을 방지하기 위한 방안을 마련해야 한다.

MAGNETIC FIELD DEPENDENCE OF MAGNETIZATION REVERSAL BEHAVIOR IN Co/Pt MULTILAYERS.

  • Cho, Yoon-Chul;Choe, Sug-Bong;Shin, Sung-Chul
    • 한국자기학회:학술대회 개요집
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    • 한국자기학회 2000년도 International Symposium on Magnetics The 2000 Fall Conference
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    • pp.279-286
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    • 2000
  • Magnetic field dependence of magnetization reversal in Co/Pt multilayers has been quantitatively investigated. Serial samples of Co/Pt multilayers have been prepared by dc-magnetron sputtering under various Ar pressure. Magnetization reversal was monitored by magnetization viscosity measurement and direct domain observation using a magneto-optical microscope system, and the wall-motion speed and the nucleation rate R were determined using a domain reversal model based on time-resolved domain reversal patterns. Both and R were found to be exponentially dependent on the reversing applied field. From the exponential dependencies, the activation volumes of the wall motion and nucleation could be determined based on a thermally activated relaxation model, and the wall-motion activation volume was revealed to be slightly larger than the nucleation activation volume.

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ROBUST REGRESSION SMOOTHING FOR DEPENDENT OBSERVATIONS

  • Kim, Tae-Yoon;Song, Gyu-Moon;Kim, Jang-Han
    • 대한수학회논문집
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.345-354
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    • 2004
  • Boente and Fraiman [2] studied robust nonparametric estimators for regression or autoregression problems when the observations exhibit serial dependence. They established strong consistency of two families of M-type robust equivariant estimators for $\phi$-mixing processes. In this paper we extend their results to weaker $\alpha$$alpha$-mixing processes.

Size Refinement of Empirical Likelihood Tests in Time Series Models using Sieve Bootstraps

  • Lee, Jin
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.199-205
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    • 2013
  • We employ sieve bootstraps for empirical likelihood tests in time series models because their null distributions are often vulnerable to the presence of serial dependence. We found a significant size refinement of the bootstrapped versions of a Lagrangian Multiplier type test statistic regardless of the bandwidth choice required by long-run variance estimations.

유한 필드 $GF(2^m)$상에서의 MSB 우선 디지트 시리얼 곱셈기 설계 (Design of MSB-First Digit-Serial Multiplier for Finite Fields GF(2″))

  • 김창훈;한상덕;홍춘표
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제27권6C호
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    • pp.625-631
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    • 2002
  • 본 논문에서는 유한 필드 GF(2")상에서 모듈러 곱셈 A(x)B(x) mod G(x)를 수행하는 MSB 우선 디지트 시리얼곱셈기를 설계하였다. 이를 위하여 GF(2")상에서 MSB 우선 곱셈 알고리즘으로부터 자료 의존 그래프를 구하고, 이를 이용하여 효율적인 디지트 시리얼 시스톨릭 곱셈기를 설계한다. 설계된 곱셈기에 대한 VHDL 코드를 구하고 시뮬레이션을 거친 후 FPGA 로 구현한다. 구현된 곱셈기는 디지트의 크기를 L로 설정했을 경우 연속적인 입력 데이터에 대해 [m/L) 클럭 사이클 비율로 곱셈의 결과를 출력한다. 본 연구에서 구현된 곱셈기를 기존의 곱셈기와 비교 분석한 결과 시간 및 공간 복잡도가 감소되었으며, 간단한 구조로서 데이터 처리 지연시간을 줄일 수 있다. 또한 본 연구에서 제안한 구조는 단 방향의 신호 흐름 특성을 가지고 있으며, 매우 규칙적이기 때문에 m과 L에 대해 높은 확장성을 가진다.

Dose Dependence of the Severity of Radiation-Induced Thymic Lymphoma in Mice

  • GU, Yeunhwa;Oshima, Masami;Hasegawa, Takeo
    • 한국환경성돌연변이발암원학회지
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.266-273
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    • 2002
  • The dose dependence of the severity of radiation-induced thymic lymphoma in C57BL/6J mice was studied. Mice were exposed to fractionated irradiation at the total doses of 4.0, 6.0 and 8.0 Gy (four irradiations at 8-day intervals) starting from 33 days after birth. Pathological and histological changes of each mouse were observed after periodical sacrifice at day 75, 100, 125, 150, 175, 200, 250, 300 after the first irradiation. The severity of cancers were classified into 4 stages by clinical signs with respect to the enlargement of the thymus, spleen, liver, the progression of the cancer in the thymus, and the metastasis to the spleen, liver, lung and the lymphatic nodes. Among the 490 mice observed, 146 mice had thymic lymphoma. A clear dose-effect relationship was observed as well as the dose-response relationship. Also, periodical observation showed that thymic lymphoma was first induced in mice sacrificed at day 100 (130days old), and metastasize in the order of spleen, lung, liver and then the lymphatic nodes. The results suggest that radiation may be involved not only as a tumor initiator but also as a tumor promoter, and a tumor progression-enhancing agent.

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