DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Analysis of Determinants of Regional Unemployment Rate Using Dynamic Spatial Panel Model

동적공간패널모형을 이용한 지역 실업률 결정요인 분석

  • Kim, So-Youn (Department of Ecomonics, Andong National University) ;
  • Ryu, Su-Yeol (Department of Ecomonics, Andong National University)
  • Received : 2022.02.28
  • Accepted : 2022.03.25
  • Published : 2022.03.30

Abstract

Purpose - This study analyzed the determinants of local unemployment rate in Korea using panel data from 16 metropolitan cities and provinces from 2000 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach - We use a dynamic spatial panel model that considers characteristics of the regional unemployment rate such as the common factors effect, spatial dependence, and serial correlations. Findings - The local unemployment rate is affected by the past and present values of the national unemployment rate. And it is significantly affected by the past local unemployment rate and the past neighboring unemployment rate because spatial dependence and serial correlations are clearly present. In addition, when the industrial structure diversity and labor productivity were high, the regional unemployment rate decreased, and when the education level was high, the regional unemployment rate increased. Research implications or Originality - In order to reduce regional unemployment rate, it is necessary to plan and establish regional customized industrial structure policies under the stance of diversification rather than specializing the regional industrial structure and accompany improvement of the quality of education with the number of years of education. In addition, the redistribution of labor from low labor productivity sectors to high labor productivity sectors through technology development will help to reduce the local unemployment rate.

Keywords

References

  1. 고석찬 (2009), "지역 산업구조의 다변화가 실업과 고용불안정에 미친 영향", 한국지역개발학회지, 21(3), 337-366.
  2. 금재호 (2007), "청년실업의 현황과 원인 및 대책", 사회과학논총, 9, 27-54.
  3. 김경근 (2003), "한국사회의 교육열과 청년실업", 한국교육학회, 교육학연구, 41(4), 87-105.
  4. 김영재, 정상완, 박상록 (2012), "한국 청년실업 유형별 전략적 관리 방안에 관한 연구", 취업진로연구, 2(1), 67-89.
  5. 김용민, 윤일현 (2016), "일본 광역경제권의 실업률 결정요인", 인문사회과학연구, 17(2), 385-408. https://doi.org/10.15818/IHSS.2016.17.2.385
  6. 류수열, 윤석민 (2007), "광역경제권의 산업구조 다양성과 실업률", 지역연구, 23(3), 27-43.
  7. 류수열, 최기홍, 고승환, 윤성민 (2014), "산업구조의 다양성이 실업과 고용불안정에 미치는 영향: 패널회귀모형을 이용한 지역경제 분석", 한국경제지리학회지, 17(1), 129-146. https://doi.org/10.23841/EGSK.2014.17.1.129
  8. 박재현 (2010), "한국 산업의 지역별 구조변화, 위험, 성장에 관한 연구", 부산대학교 대학원 박사학위청구논문.
  9. 박종훈, 이경재 (2018), "지역 노동시장의 산업구조를 고려한 청년층 고용 활성화 방안에 관한 연구", 한국지역개발학회지, 30(4), 133-159.
  10. 송부용, 김영순, 김기영 (2011), "청년일자리 미스매치 요인분석", 한국지역경제학회, 19, 287-312.
  11. 신석하, 조동철 (2003), "한국의 자연실업률 추정방법 비교연구", KDI 정책연구시리즈, 1-94.
  12. 전병유 (2009), "지역 간 고용 성과 격차에 관한 연구", 경제연구, 27(4), 121-148.
  13. Almeida, A., A. Galiano, A.A. Golpe, and J.M. Martin (2020), "Regional Unemployment and Cyclical Sensitivity in Spain", Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences ,13(2), 187-199. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-020-00252-3
  14. Anselin, L. (1988), Spatial Econometrics : Methods and Models, Kluwer Academic Publisher.
  15. Anselin, L., R.J.G.M. Florax, and S.J. Rey (2004), Advances in Spatial Econometrics : Methodology, Tools and Application, Berlin, Springer.
  16. Basile, R., A. Girardi, M. Mantuano and F. Pastore (2012), "Sectoral Shifts, Diversification and Regional Unemployment: Evidence from Local Labour Systems in Italy", Empirica, 39, 525-544. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-012-9198-3
  17. Blanchard, O.J. and L.F. Katz (1992), Regional Evolutions, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 1-75. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534556
  18. Brechling, F. (1967), Trends and Cycles in British Regional Unemployment, Oxford Economic Papers, 19, 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041034
  19. Christopher A.P. and M.C. Lan (1990), Regional Migration, Wages and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Policy, Oxford Economic Papers, 42(4), 812-831. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041980
  20. Chudik, A., M.H. Pesaran and E. Tosetti (2011), "Weak and Strong Cross-Section Dependence and Estimation of Large Panels", The Econometrics Journal, 14, 45-90.
  21. Deller S. and P. Watson (2015), "Spatial Variations in the Relationship between Economic Diversity and Stability", Applied Economics Letters, 23(7), 520-525. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2015.1085630
  22. Elhorst, J.P. (2003), "The Mystery of Regional Unemployment Differentials: Theoretical and Empirical Explanations", Journal of Economic Surveys, 17(5), 709-748. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1467-6419.2003.00211.x
  23. Elhorst, J.P. (2008), "Serial and Spatial Error Correlation", Economics Letters, 100(3), 422-424. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2008.03.009
  24. Fleisher, B.M. and G. Rhodes (1976), "Unemployment and the Labor Force Participation of Married Men and Women: A Simultaneous Model", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 58(4), 398-406. https://doi.org/10.2307/1935871
  25. Harris, R.D. and E. Tzavalis (1999), "Inference for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels Where the Time Dimension is Fixed", Journal of Econometrics, 91, 201-226. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00076-1
  26. Hyclak, T. (1996), "Structural Changes in Labor Demand and Unemployment in Local Labor Markets", Journal of Regional Science, 36, 653-663. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.1996.tb01123.x
  27. Izraeli, O. and K.J. Murphy (2003), "The Effect of Industrial Diversity on State Unemployment Rate and Per Capita Income", The Annals of Regional Science, 37, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s001680200100
  28. Lee, L. and J. Yu (2010), "Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects", Journal of Econometrics, 154(2), 165-185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.08.001
  29. LeSage, J.P. and R.K. Pace (2009), Introduction to Spatial Econometrics, Taylor and Francis, Boca Raton, FL.
  30. Levin, A., F. Lin and C. Chu (2002), "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties", Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7
  31. Lottmann, F. (2012), "Explaining Regional Unemployment Differences in Germany: a Spatial Panel Data Analysis", No. 2012-026, SFB 649, discussion paper.
  32. Mizuno, K., F. Mizutani and N. Nakayama (2006), "Industrial Diversity and Metropolitan Unemployment", Annals of Regional Science, 40(1), 157-172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-005-0046-2
  33. Molho, I. (1995), "Spatial Autocorrelation in British Unemployment", Journal of Regional Science, 35(4), 641-658. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.1995.tb01297.x
  34. Mortensen, D.T. and C.A. Pissarides (1998), "Technological Progress, Job Creation, and Job Destruction", Review of Economic dynamics, 1(4), 733-753. https://doi.org/10.1006/redy.1998.0030
  35. OECD (2005), How Persistent are Regional Disparities in Employment, Employment Outlook, Paris: OECD.
  36. Patacchini, E. and Y. Zenou (2007), "Spatial Dependence in Local Unemployment Rates", Journal of Economic Geography, 72(2), 169-191. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbm001
  37. Pesaran, M.H. (2004), General Diagnostic Tests for Cross-Section Dependence in Panels, Working Paper, University of Cambridge and USC, June.
  38. Pesaran, M.H. (2006), "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure", Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00692.x
  39. Pissarides, C.A. (1998), Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, The MIT Press.
  40. Rios, V. (2017), "What Drives Unemployment Disparities in European Regions? A Dynamic Spatial Panel Approach", Regional Studies, 51(11), 1599-1611. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2016.1216094
  41. Shihe, F.U., D. Xiaofang and C. Guojun (2010), "Industry Specialization, Diversification, Churning, and Unemployment in Chinese Cities", China Economic Review, 21(4), 508-520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2010.04.007
  42. Thirlwall, A.P. (1966), "Regional Unemployment as a Cyclical Phenomenon", Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 13, 205-219. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.1966.tb00938.x
  43. Vega, S.H. and J.P. Elhorst (2016), "A Regional Unemployment Model Simultaneously Accounting for Serial Dynamics, Spatial Dependence and Common Factors", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 60, 85-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.07.002
  44. Yu, J., R. de Jong and L.F. Lee (2008), "Quasi-Maximum Llikelihood Estimators for Spatial Dynamic Panel Data with Fixed Effects When both N and T are Large", Journal of Econometrics, 146, 118-134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.08.002
  45. Zeilstra, A. and J.P. Elhorst (2014), "Integrated Analysis of Regional and National Unemployment Differentials in the European Union", Regional Studies, 48(10), 1739-1755. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2012.708404