• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario-based

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Risk Assessment on Carcinogenic Pesticides of Vegetables in Korea (채소류 중 발암성 농약의 위해성 평가)

  • Yoon, Jae-Hong;Chung, Yong;Shin, Dong-Chun;Lee, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.155-161
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    • 1999
  • Objectio ostinato the carcinogenic risks from the ingestion of some carcinogenic pesticides (CPs) in vegetables sampled at a local agricultural product market in Seoul. Methods: After applying a hazard identification step, we selected four pesticides, such as DDT, dieldrin, folpet, and heptachlor epoxide, for this risk assessment. Concentrations of each pesticide were measured from randomly sampled vegetables. In order to estimate the human exposure levels, we combined the concentration of pesticides in the vegetables with consumption rate of those vegetables. Three scenarios were hypothesized for human exposure assessment. Scenario I was the most conservative which supposed the undetected CPs would be the detection limit values. Scenario II was assumed that the undetected CPs would be a half of the detection limit values, and finally scenario III merely considered only values greater than the detection limit values. We finally presented the estimated carcinogenic risks on the basis of the traditional risk assessment procedure suggested by U.S. EPA. Results: Pesticides including DDT, dieldrin, folpet and heptachlor epoxide were detected in 9 samples (6%) in the range of $0.0006\sim0.09ppm$. The daily intake levels of carcinogenic pesticides were estimated in the range of $0.0009\sim0.0079{\mu}g/day$. As we expected, excess cancer risks based on scenario I was also the highest $(1.1\times10^{-8}\sim5.5\times10^{-5})$. Conclusions: We found that the estimated risks from the pesticides we investigated were not serious. We, however, propose that a continuos monitoring is needed to make sure for the protection of public health.

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Effects of Message Sidedness of Fashion Salespersons on Consumer Behavior -Focusing on the Mediating Effects of Salespersons' Trust and Cognitive Effort- (패션점포 판매원 메시지의 측면성이 소비자 행동에 미치는 영향 -판매원 신뢰와 인지노력의 매개효과를 중심으로-)

  • Kwon, Ki Yong;Choo, Ho Jung;Lee, Mi Ah
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.88-103
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    • 2018
  • Message sidedness of fashion salespersons on consumer behavior with the consideration of the mediating roles of trust and cognitive efforts, and the moderation of a regulatory focus of consumers. Two scenarios were devised, a single message in which a salesperson explains only the advantages of a product to customers, and the second with a double message that explains both the advantages and drawbacks of the product. The results showed that participants trusted a fashion salesperson more and perceived stronger cognitive effort for two-sided messages. The two-sided messages mediated the consumer's trust in the salesperson and cognitive effort, and influenced consumers' buying behavior. This study also found that salesperson trust was stronger in the two-sided messages scenario than in the one-sided message scenario, regardless of consumers' focused preference, and that it was more effective for promotion focus customers. The analysis of the results on consumers' cognitive effort indicated that prevention focused customers did not exhibit any difference in cognitive effort concerning two-sided messages. However, promotion focused customers exhibited an increased cognitive effort in the two-sided message scenario than in the one-sided message scenario. Marketing implications were discussed based on the findings.

Safety Assessment on Disposal of HLW from P&T Cycle (핵변환 잔류 고준위 방사성 폐기물 처분 성능 평가)

  • 이연명;황용수;강철형
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.132-145
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    • 2001
  • The purpose and need of the study is to quantify the advantage or disadvantage of the environmental friendliness of the partitioning of nuclear fuel cycle. To this end, a preliminary study on the quantitative effect of the partition on the permanent disposal of spent PWR and CANDU fuel (HLW) was carried out. Before any analysis, the so-called reference radionuclide release scenario from a potential repository embedded into a crystalline rock was developed. Firstly, the feature, event and processes (FEPs) which lead to the release of nuclides from waste disposed of in a repository and the transport to and through the biosphere were identified. Based on the selected FEPs, the ‘Well Scenario’which might be the worst case scenario was set up. For the given scenario, annual individual doses to a local resident exposed to radioactive hazard were estimated and compared to that from direct disposal. Even though partitioning and transmutation could be an ideal solution to reduce the inventory which eventually decreases the release time as well as the peaks in the annual dose and also minimize the repository area through the proper handling of nuclides, it should overcome major disadvantages such as echnical issues on the partitioning and transmutation system, cost, and public acceptance, and environment friendly issues. In this regard, some relevant issues are also discussed to show the direction for further studies.

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A Study on the Efficient Generation of Damage Control Onboard Training Scenarios for Naval Ships (손상통제 함상훈련 시나리오의 효율적 생성에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Jae-Soo;Lee, Hyun Yup;Chung, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Tae-Jin;Kim, Sook-Kyoung
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.56 no.5
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    • pp.457-463
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    • 2019
  • Damage control is a very important preliminary and primary activity to improve the survivability of naval ships by preventing spread of damage, and various types of onboard damage control training are conducted regularly on naval ships. The scenarios for these trainings should be well organized to improve the training efficiency. However, at present, it takes much time and effort to generate the training scenarios and there is a problem that the procedures and contents of the scenarios vary widely depending on the persons who generate, without the established methods and standards. In this paper, an efficient generation method of damage control onboard training scenarios has been established, especially for flood and fire o n naval ships. Also a computer program has been developed based on the established method. The results showed that this method and computer program reduce the time and effort to generate these scenarios, and it is hoped that the method be used as a ROK Navy Standard.

Conformance Test Scenario Extraction Techniques for Embedded Software using Test Execution Time (테스트 수행시간을 고려한 임베디드 소프트웨어의 적합성 테스트 시나리오 추출 기법)

  • Park, In-Su;Shin, Young-Sul;Ahn, Sung-Ho;Kim, Jin-Sam;Kim, Jae-Young;Lee, Woo-Jin
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.17D no.2
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    • pp.147-156
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    • 2010
  • Conformance testing for embedded software is to check whether software was correctly implemented according to software specification or not. In conformance testing, test scenarios must be extracted to cover every test cases of software. In a general way, test scenarios simply focus on testing all functions at least one time. But, test scenarios are necessary to consider efficiency of test execution. In this paper, we propose a test scenario extraction method by considering function's execution time and waiting time for user interaction. A test model is a graph model which is generated from state machine diagram and test cases in software specification. The test model is augmented by describing test execution time and user interaction information. Based on the test model, test scenarios are extracted by a modified Dijkstra's algorithm. Our test scenario approach can reduce testing time and improve test automation.

The Study on the Strategy for the Formation of the Innovation Clusters - Focused on the Scenario Planning of the 'Pankyo TechnoValley'- (기술혁신 클러스터 구축의 전략방향 설정에 관한 연구 - '판교 테크노밸리' 시나라오 플래닝을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Won-Il;Yim, Deok-Soon;Lee, Yeon-Hee;Jung, Eui-Jeong
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.301-319
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    • 2011
  • This research focused on the strategy consulting of the 'Pankyo Technovalley' for the formation of the innovation clusters The study was performed based on both theoretical study and related qualitative study approaches. Particularly, 'scenario planning' as a foresight method was used for the strategy formulation of the innovation clusters. The major determinants for the success of the formation of the innovation clusters can be summarized as follows; the enhancement of the service of the host institution of clusters, the alignment of the national cluster policy with the strategy of the host institution and the networks of the clusters. In terms of the needs of times, this study regarding the strategy for the formation of the innovation clusters is anticipated to be a good reference for the R&D organizations and technology cluster participants in coming years.

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Assessment of Flood Vulnerability for Small Reservoir according to Climate Change Scenario - Reservoir in Gyeonggi-do - (기후변화 시나리오에 따른 소규모 저수지의 홍수 취약성 평가 - 경기도 내 저수지를 중심으로 -)

  • Heo, Joon;Bong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Seong-Pil;Jun, Sang-Min
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.64 no.5
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    • pp.53-65
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    • 2022
  • Most of the reservoirs managed by the city and county are small and it is difficult to respond to climate change because the drainage area is small and the inflow increases rapidly when a heavy rain occurs. In this study, the current status of reservoirs managed by city and county in Gyeonggi-do was reviewed and flood vulnerability due to climate change was analyzed. In order to analyze the impact of climate change, CMIP6-based future climate scenario provided by IPCC was used, and future rainfall data was established through downscaling of climate scenario (SSP8-8.5). The flood vulnerability of reservoirs due to climate change was evaluated using the concept provided by the IPCC. The future annual precipitation at six weather stations appeared a gradual increase and the fluctuation range of the annual precipitation was also found to increase. As a result of calculating the flood vulnerability index, it was analyzed that the flood vulnerability was the largest in the 2055s period and the lowest in the 2025s period. In the past period (2000s), the number of D and E grade reservoirs was 58, but it was found to increase to 107 in the 2055s period. In 2085s, there were 17 E grade reservoirs, which was more than in the past. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures against the increasing risk of flooding in the future.

Impact of Changes in Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change Scenario on Streamflow in the Basin (기후변화 시나리오하의 기후 및 토지피복 변화가 유역 내 유출량에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jin Soo;Choi, Chul Uong
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2013
  • This study is intended to predict variations in future land use/land cover(LULC) based on the representation concentration pathway(RCP) storyline that is a new climate change scenario and to analyze how future climate and LULC changes under RCP scenario affects streamflow in the basin. This study used climate data under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and LULC change scenario is created by a model that is developed using storyline of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and logistic regression(LR). Two scenarios(climate change only and LULC change only) were established. The streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model. Each scenario showed a significant seasonal variations in streamflow. Climate change showed that it reduced streamflow in summer and autumn while it increased streamflow in spring and winter. Although LULC change little affected streamflow in the basin, the pattern for increasing and decreasing streamflow during wet and dry climate condition was significant. Therefore, it's believed that sustainable water resource policies for flood and drought depending on future LULC are required.

Future Scenarios Regarding Domestic Labor and Caregiving by the Baby Boomer Generation in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4차 산업혁명 시대, 베이비부머 세대의 가사노동과 돌봄의 미래 시나리오 - 시나리오 플래닝 기법 활용을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Sunhyung;Kim, Sunghee
    • Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2023
  • This study forecasts the outlook 10 years from now regarding domestic labor and caregiving by the Baby Boomer generation and the preparations needed in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The scenario-planning method was used to explore changing trends in domestic labor and caregiving, the rationale for which has been questioned by both seniors and family welfare experts. Based on the results of the survey and our researchers' opinions, it was concluded that the changing trends were caused by two factors: the probability of alterations in domestic labor and the strength of family relationships. On the basis of these conclusions, four scenarios regarding baby boomers' domestic labor and caregiving in 10 years were proposed using two axes: the "high and low probability of alterations" and the "strengthening and weakening of family relationships." The first scenario is a "preference for the self-caring form of family," which has a high probability of domestic labor alterations and weak family relationships. The second scenario is a "preference for the flexible form of family," which has a high probability of domestic labor alterations and strong family relationships. The third scenario is a "preference for the traditional form of family," which has a low probability of domestic labor alterations and strong family relationships. The fourth scenario is a "preference for the public caregiving form of family," which has a low probability of domestic labor alterations and weak family relationships. These results provide basic information about the various aspects of baby boomers' lives-including the development of various goods and services, the establishment of policies regarding seniors, and programs for successful aging-and can help equip our society to take the actions needed for a super-aged population.

A Study on the Improvement of Fire Evacuation Scenario Using Delphi Technique -Focus on The Mobile Application and psychology- (델파이 기법을 활용한 화재피난 시나리오 개선 연구- 모바일 어플리케이션과 재실자 심리를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Sang ki;Kim, Sung Hyun
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.23-37
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    • 2022
  • Based on the service scenario proposed by the existing Kim Tae-wan (2018) who can safely evacuate inmates with the help of a mobile application linked to a fire detection system in the event of a fire, the final purpose of this study is to develop the scenario by incorporating more realistic scenarios with mobile stimuli that can help them escape or act through the Delph In addition, to make the scenarios produced more realistic considering the structure and copper lines of a typical building, expert scenario verification and Delphi technique were applied to exclude unnecessary or impractical aspects of the existing scenarios. The results of the second Delphi survey showed that the primary psychology that could be seen at the time of the fire alarm were doubts, safety concerns and alarm, and the results of the second Delphi survey were analyzed, and the satisfaction of the content adequacy (CVR), convergence, and consensus was derived. Finally, this was applied to create a scenario in which a mobile application was assisted to evacuate the fire response phase. This study will allow the use of methods to increase the evacuation rate of those who are in the event of a fire.