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http://dx.doi.org/10.7319/kogsis.2013.21.2.107

Impact of Changes in Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change Scenario on Streamflow in the Basin  

Kim, Jin Soo (Pukyong National University)
Choi, Chul Uong (Department of Spatial Information Engineering, Pukyong National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science / v.21, no.2, 2013 , pp. 107-116 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study is intended to predict variations in future land use/land cover(LULC) based on the representation concentration pathway(RCP) storyline that is a new climate change scenario and to analyze how future climate and LULC changes under RCP scenario affects streamflow in the basin. This study used climate data under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and LULC change scenario is created by a model that is developed using storyline of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and logistic regression(LR). Two scenarios(climate change only and LULC change only) were established. The streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model. Each scenario showed a significant seasonal variations in streamflow. Climate change showed that it reduced streamflow in summer and autumn while it increased streamflow in spring and winter. Although LULC change little affected streamflow in the basin, the pattern for increasing and decreasing streamflow during wet and dry climate condition was significant. Therefore, it's believed that sustainable water resource policies for flood and drought depending on future LULC are required.
Keywords
Climate Change; LULC; RCP Scenario; Streamflow; SWAT;
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