• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario technique

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Development of Representative GCMs Selection Technique for Uncertainty in Climate Change Scenario (기후변화 시나리오 자료의 불확실성 고려를 위한 대표 GCM 선정기법 개발)

  • Jung, Imgook;Eum, Hyung-Il;Lee, Eun-Jeong;Park, Jihoon;Cho, Jaepil
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.60 no.5
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    • pp.149-162
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    • 2018
  • It is necessary to select the appropriate global climate model (GCM) to take into account the impacts of climate change on integrated water management. The objective of this study was to develop the selection technique of representative GCMs for uncertainty in climate change scenario. The selection technique which set priorities of GCMs consisted of two steps. First step was evaluating original GCMs by comparing with grid-based observational data for the past period. Second step was evaluating whether the statistical downscaled data reflect characteristics for the historical period. Spatial Disaggregation Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM), one of the statistical downscaling methods, was used for the downscaled data. The way of evaluating was using explanatory power, the stepwise ratio of the entire GCMs by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) basis. We used 26 GCMs based on CMIP5 data. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were selected for this study. The period for evaluating reproducibility of historical period was 30 years from 1976 to 2005. Precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature were used as collected climate variables. As a result, we suggested representative 13 GCMs among 26 GCMs by using the selection technique developed in this research. Furthermore, this result can be utilized as a basic data for integrated water management.

Parametric Modeling Technique in OPERA-3d Preprocessor (OPERA-3d 전처리기에서의 변수화 모델링 기법)

  • Lim, In-Taek;Lee, Sang-Jin
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1998.07a
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    • pp.214-216
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    • 1998
  • Parameterizing a model is one of the most efficient ways of conducting "virtual prototying" i.e. exploring the "What if?" scenario. But it is very difficult to construct parameterized models in commercial based FEM programs, because they usually adopt the mouse inputs in their GUI, which cannot be parameterized. We consolidated a parametric modelling technique in OPERA-3d preprocessor, which is one of world leading electromagnetic analysis programs, by combining the mouse inputs in GUI with it's FORTRAN-based self script command language.

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Function Point Analysis using Goal and Scenario based Requirements (목표 및 시나리오 기반 요구사항을 이용한 기능점수 분석)

  • Choi Soon-Hwang;Kim Jin-Tae;Park Soo-Yong;Han Ji-Young
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.33 no.8
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    • pp.655-667
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    • 2006
  • This paper proposes a method for counting function point using goal and scenario based requirements. Function Point is a software sizing method and widely used as a basis to estimate software development cost. Requirements elicitation and analysis should be performed before function point analysis but function point analysis method doesn't deal with requirements elicitation and analysis. For that reason, Function point extraction method from existing requirements method is needed and if the requirements method has advantage for traceability and elicitation, it is suitable for managing cost. Goal and scenario method is widely used as requirements elicitation and analysis. It has also good traceability. Therefore, this paper discusses a method for extracting function point from requirements text gathered using the goal and scenario based requirements elicitation technique. The proposed method aims to establish and maintain traceability between function point and requirements text. Text based function point extraction guidance rules have been developed. The proposed methodology has been applied to Order Processing System development.

Model Algorithms for Estimates of Inhalation Exposure and Comparison between Exposure Estimates from Each Model (흡입 노출 모델 알고리즘의 구성과 시나리오 노출량 비교)

  • Park, Jihoon;Yoon, Chungsik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.358-367
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: This study aimed to review model algorithms and input parameters applied to some exposure models and to compare the simulated estimates using an exposure scenario from each model. Methods: A total of five exposure models which can estimate inhalation exposure were selected; the Korea Ministry of Environment(KMOE) exposure model, European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals Targeted Risk Assessment(ECETOC TRA), SprayExpo, and ConsExpo model. Algorithms and input parameters for exposure estimation were reviewed and the exposure scenario was used for comparing the modeled estimates. Results: Algorithms in each model commonly consist of the function combining physicochemical properties, use characteristics, user exposure factors, and environmental factors. The outputs including air concentration ($mg/m^3$) and inhaled dose(mg/kg/day) are estimated applying input parameters with the common factors to the algorithm. In particular, the input parameters needed to estimate are complicated among the models and models need more individual input parameters in addition to common factors. In case of CEM, it can be obtained more detailed exposure estimates separating user's breathing zone(near-field) and those at influencing zone(far-field) by two-box model. The modeled exposure estimates using the exposure scenario were similar between the models; they were ranged from 0.82 to $1.38mg/m^3$ for concentration and from 0.015 to 0.180 mg/kg/day for inhaled dose, respectively. Conclusions: Modeling technique can be used for a useful tool in the process of exposure assessment if the exposure data are scarce, but it is necessary to consider proper input parameters and exposure scenario which can affect the real exposure conditions.

Development of Safety Evaluation Scenarios for Autonomous Vehicle Tests Using 5-Layer Format(Case of the Community Road) (5-레이어 포맷을 이용한 자율주행자동차 실험 시나리오 개발(커뮤니티부 도로를 중심으로))

  • Park, Sangmin;So, Jaehyun(Jason);Ko, Hangeom;Jeong, Harim;Yun, Ilsoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.114-128
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the interest in the safety of autonomous vehicles has globally been increasing. Also, there is controversy over the reliability and safety about autonomous vehicle. In Korea, the K-City which is a test-bed for testing autonomous vehicles has been constructing. There is a need for test scenarios for autonomous vehicle test in terms of safety. The purpose of this study is to develop the evaluation scenario for autonomous vehicle at community roads in K-City by using crash data collected by the Korea National Police Agency and a text-mining technique. As a result, 24 scenarios were developed in order to test autonomous vehicle in community roads. Finally, the logical and concrete scenario forms were derived based on the Pegasus 5-layer format.

Application of Probabilistic Health Risk Analysis in Life Cycle Assessment -Part I : A General Framework for Uncertainty and Variability Analysis of Health Risk in Life Cycle Assessment (전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 건강영향분석기법 적용 -Part I : 전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 위해도 분석기법 적용방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Kwang-Soo;Park, Jae-Sung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2000
  • Uncertainty and variability in Life Cycle Assessment(LCA) have been significant key issues in LCA methodology with techniques in other research area such as social and political science. Variability is understood as stemming from inherent variations in the real world, while uncertainty comes from inaccurate measurements, lack of data, model assumptions, etc. Related articles in this issues were reviewed for classification, distinguish and elaboration of probabilistic/stochastic health risk analysis application in LCA. Concept of focal zone, streamlining technique, scenario modelling and Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube risk analysis were applied to the uncertainty/variability analysis of health risk in LCA. These results show that this general framework of multi-disciplinary methodology between probabilistic health risk assessment and LCA was of benefit to decision making process by suppling information about input/output data sensitivity, health effect priority and health risk distribution. There should be further research needs for case study using this methodology.

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A FRF-based algorithm for damage detection using experimentally collected data

  • Garcia-Palencia, Antonio;Santini-Bell, Erin;Gul, Mustafa;Catbas, Necati
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.399-418
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    • 2015
  • Automated damage detection through Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) techniques has become an active area of research in the bridge engineering community but widespread implementation on in-service infrastructure still presents some challenges. In the meantime, visual inspection remains as the most common method for condition assessment even though collected information is highly subjective and certain types of damage can be overlooked by the inspector. In this article, a Frequency Response Functions-based model updating algorithm is evaluated using experimentally collected data from the University of Central Florida (UCF)-Benchmark Structure. A protocol for measurement selection and a regularization technique are presented in this work in order to provide the most well-conditioned model updating scenario for the target structure. The proposed technique is composed of two main stages. First, the initial finite element model (FEM) is calibrated through model updating so that it captures the dynamic signature of the UCF Benchmark Structure in its healthy condition. Second, based upon collected data from the damaged condition, the updating process is repeated on the baseline (healthy) FEM. The difference between the updated parameters from subsequent stages revealed both location and extent of damage in a "blind" scenario, without any previous information about type and location of damage.

Test Cases Generation Method for GUI Testing with Automatic Scenario Generation (시나리오의 자동 생성을 통한 GUI 테스트 케이스 생성 방법)

  • Lee, Jung-Gyw;Kuk, Seung-Hak;Kim, Hyeon-Soo
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2009
  • In these days GUI components are recognized as the important driving elements to the successful software development. Thus they must be verified. In practice, however, GUI testing for verifying the GUI components needs lots of time and high costs. Test automation for GUI testing is a promising solution to save those expenses. In this paper, we discuss some issues considered to perform GUI testing and suggest a new method that improve the GUI test case generation method based on our previous 'record & playback' approach. For this, we suggest the event generation method using the 'spy' technique and the scenario generation method that generates effectively a lot of scenarios with the generated events. In turn we describe how to create GUI test cases from the generated scenarios.

Estimation of Design Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenario in Jeju Island (기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 제주도 확률강우량 산정)

  • Lee, Jun-Ho;Yang, Sung-Kee;Jung, Woo-Yul;Yang, Won-Seok
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.383-391
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    • 2015
  • As occurrence of gradually increasing extreme temperature events in Jeju Island, a hybrid downscaling technique that simultaneously applies by dynamical method and statistical method has implemented on design rainfall in order to reduce flood damages from severe storms and typhoons.As a result of computation, Case 1 shows a strong tendency to excessively compute rainfall, which is continuously increasing. While Case 2 showed similar trend as Case 1, low design rainfall has computed by rainfall in A1B scenario. Based on the design rainfall computation method mainly used in Preventive Disaster System through Pre-disaster Effect Examination System and Basic Plan for River of Jeju Island which are considering climatic change for selecting 50-year and 100-year frequencies. Case 3 selecting for Jeju rain gage station and Case 1 for Seogwipo rain gage station. The results were different for each rain gage station because of difference in rainfall characteristics according to recent climatic change, and the risk of currently known design rainfall can be increased in near future.

A Study on the Test and Evaluation Methodology for the Precise Encountering Scenario between Ammunitions (탄약 간 정밀교전을 위한 시험평가기법 연구)

  • Ha, Jongsoo;Park, Youngsik;Lee, Hanjin;Kim, Yongjae;Kwak, Yoon;Park, Minkyu
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.776-783
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    • 2018
  • This paper proposes an improved test and evaluation methodology to be conducted for a in-flight threat-countermeasure encounter scenario. Although the conventional test method adopted in the precedent researches allows high precision and safety, such full-scale method is practically not appropriate to apply to small-scale test rounds for evaluating the subparts of the ammunition. To address this problem, this study suggests a readily-applicable, small-scale test and evaluation method of the subpart of the ammunition in firing test. In the threat-countermeasure encounter scenario, the results of several tests demonstrate that the proposed technique does not deteriorate the precision when the engagement point should be adjusted.