• Title/Summary/Keyword: run probability

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Numerical Switching Performances of Cumulative Sum Chart for Dispersion Matrix

  • Chang, Duk-Joon
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.78-84
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    • 2019
  • In many cases, the quality of a product is determined by several correlated quality variables. Control charts have been used for a long time widely to control the production process and to quickly detect the assignable causes that may produce any deterioration in the quality of a product. Numerical switching performances of multivariate cumulative sum control chart for simultaneous monitoring all components in the dispersion matrix ${\Sigma}$ under multivariate normal process $N_p({\underline{\mu}},{\Sigma})$ are considered. Numerical performances were evaluated for various shifts of the values of variances and/or correlation coefficients in ${\Sigma}$. Our computational results show that if one wants to quick detect the small shifts in a process, CUSUM control chart with small reference value k is more efficient than large k in terms of average run length (ARL), average time to signal (ATS), average number of switches (ANSW).

Pair-wise peculiar velocity and the redshift space distortion

  • Park, Hyunbae;Tonegawa, Motonari;Zheng, Yi;Sabiu, Cris;Li, Xiao-dong;Park, Changbom
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.43.2-43.2
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    • 2018
  • The line-of-sight component in the relative motion of galaxy pairs sources the redshift space distortion (RSD) in galaxy surveys. By knowing the probability density function (PDF) of pair-wise motions and projecting it to the line-of-sight direction, one can compute the RSD effect precisely. I present the pair-velocity PDF of dark matter and galaxies in the Horizon-run 4 simulation. I also derive a model motivated by the perturbation theory which fits the results fairly well. I also discuss the application of the model in constraining the cosmology.

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Approaches to Probabilistic Localization and Tracking for Autonomous Mobility Robot in Unknown Environment (미지환경에서 무인이동체의 자율주행을 위한 확률기반 위치 인식과 추적 방법)

  • Jin, Taeseok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.341-347
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    • 2022
  • This paper presents a comparison result of two simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) algorithms for navigation that have been proposed in literature. The performances of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) SLAM under Gaussian condition, FastSLAM algorithms using Rao-Blackwellised method for particle filtering are compared in terms of accuracy of state estimations for localization of a robot and mapping of its environment. The algorithms were run using the same type of robot on indoor environment. The results show that the Particle filter based FastSLAM has the better performance in terms of accuracy of localization and mapping. The experimental results are discussed and compared.

The review of safety against derailment on twisted track for Korean tilting train design (한국형 틸팅차량 설계의 비틀린 궤도상의 탈선안전도 검토)

  • Kim Nam-Po;Kim Jung-Seok;Park Tae-Won
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.299-307
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    • 2005
  • The 180 km/h Korean Tilting Train(TTX) which is now developing as a part of the Korean National R&D project, was elaborately designed. As the tilting trains run curve track with the $30\%$ higher speed than normal trains, the higher centrifugal and dynamic force are expected. Furthermore the complex tilting system increase the probability of failure. Therefore it is very important for tilting train to ensure safety against derailment under the various kind of failed condition in the middle of running as well as normal operating condition. The TTX train have the relatively high roll stiffness to improve the lateral ride comfort and to limit the roll displacement on the curve. But the higher roll stiffness increase the risk of derailment on the twisted track. This paper describes the study to review the safety against derailment caused by the wheel unloading on the severely twisted track. The worst combination of maximum cant change with maximum twist defect was established by numerical simulation. And also it was assumed that the air bag deflated and still the train run its speed limit. Those kind of assumption might be the worst case from the view point of wheel unloading derailment on the twisted track. The dynamic simulation was done by means of VAMPIRE S/W and non-linear transient analysis. We found that derailment quotients Q/P was only slightly influenced by track twist but the wheel unloading was greatly influenced. And we ascertained that the higher roll stiffness the higher wheel unloading. In case of air bag deflated situation, the wheel unloading reached up to $100\%$ which means the wheel lift or jumped. Therefore it was concluded that the design need to be improved to ensure the safety against derailment on the maximum twisted track in case of air bag deflated and tilting train's speed limit.

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Development and Evaluation of the High Resolution Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System in the Korea Meteorological Administration (기상청 고해상도 국지 앙상블 예측 시스템 구축 및 성능 검증)

  • Kim, SeHyun;Kim, Hyun Mee;Kay, Jun Kyung;Lee, Seung-Woo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2015
  • Predicting the location and intensity of precipitation still remains a main issue in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Resolution is a very important component of precipitation forecasts in NWP. Compared with a lower resolution model, a higher resolution model can predict small scale (i.e., storm scale) precipitation and depict convection structures more precisely. In addition, an ensemble technique can be used to improve the precipitation forecast because it can estimate uncertainties associated with forecasts. Therefore, NWP using both a higher resolution model and ensemble technique is expected to represent inherent uncertainties of convective scale motion better and lead to improved forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system for the convective-scale (i.e., high resolution) operational Unified Model (UM) in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was developed and evaluated for the ensemble forecasts during August 2012. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system developed showed good skill in predicting precipitation, wind, and temperature at the surface as well as meteorological variables at 500 and 850 hPa. To investigate which combination of horizontal resolution and ensemble member is most skillful, the system was run with three different horizontal resolutions (1.5, 2, and 3 km) and ensemble members (8, 12, and 16), and the forecasts from the experiments were evaluated. To assess the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill of the system, the precipitation forecasts for two heavy rainfall cases during the study period were analyzed using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Probability Matching (PM) method. The PM method was effective in representing the intensity of precipitation and the FSS was effective in verifying the precipitation forecast for the high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system in KMA.

Swell Correction of Shallow Marine Seismic Reflection Data Using Genetic Algorithms

  • park, Sung-Hoon;Kong, Young-Sae;Kim, Hee-Joon;Lee, Byung-Gul
    • Journal of the korean society of oceanography
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.163-170
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    • 1997
  • Some CMP gathers acquired from shallow marine seismic reflection survey in offshore Korea do not show the hyperbolic trend of moveout. It originated from so-called swell effect of source and streamer, which are towed under rough sea surface during the data acquisition. The observed time deviations of NMO-corrected traces can be entirely ascribed to the swell effect. To correct these time deviations, a residual statics is introduced using Genetic Algorithms (GA) into the swell correction. A new class of global optimization methods known as GA has recently been developed in the field of Artificial Intelligence and has a resemblance with the genetic evolution of biological systems. The basic idea in using GA as an optimization method is to represent a population of possible solutions or models in a chromosome-type encoding and manipulate these encoded models through simulated reproduction, crossover and mutation. GA parameters used in this paper are as follows: population size Q=40, probability of multiple-point crossover P$_c$=0.6, linear relationship of mutation probability P$_m$ from 0.002 to 0.004, and gray code representation are adopted. The number of the model participating in tournament selection (nt) is 3, and the number of expected copies desired for the best population member in the scaling of fitness is 1.5. With above parameters, an optimization run was iterated for 101 generations. The combination of above parameters are found to be optimal for the convergence of the algorithm. The resulting reflection events in every NMO-corrected CMP gather show good alignment and enhanced quality stack section.

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Spatio-temporal pattern of ecological droughts by using the Standardized Water Supply Demand Index in the Hwang River.

  • Sadiqi, Sayed Shajahan;Hong, Eun-Mi;Nam, Won-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.158-158
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    • 2022
  • Ecological drought consequences have received a lot of attention in recent years. Thus, ecological drought was proposed as a new drought category to characterize the impact of drought on ecosystems. The current study used a unique drought index, the standardized supply-demand water index (SSDI), and a run theory to detect ecological drought occurrences and characteristics such as drought-affected area, drought severity, drought duration, drought frequency, and drought orientation in the Hwang River, an environmentally valuable region. Hence, to assess drought-prone areas, the bivariate probability and return period will be calculated using a two-dimensional joint copula. The core results show that (a) the Spatio-temporal characteristics of ecological drought were successfully recognized using the spatial and temporal identification approach; (b) in comparison to the SPEI meteorological drought index, the SSDI is more credible and can more readily and effectively capture the entire properties of ecological drought information; (c) the Hwang river had seen the most severe drought occurrences between the late 1990s and the mid-2020s, with 48.3 percent occurring before the twenty-first century; (d) Severe ecological drought occurrences occurred more frequently in most areas of the Hwang River (e) Only the drought duration and severity in the Hwang area were more responsive to temperature when temperatures rise around 1.1℃, the average drought duration and severity rise around 16 % and 26 %, respectively. This suggested that the Hwang River has been exposed to more severe heat stress in the twenty-first century. Thereupon droughts in the twenty-first century occurred with bigger affected regions, longer durations, higher frequency, and more intensity.

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Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster in Jinbu Area Using Logistic Regression Model (로지스틱 회귀분석모델을 활용한 평창군 진부 지역의 산사태 재해의 인명 위험 평가)

  • Rahnuma, Bintae Rashid Urmi;Al, Mamun;Jang, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.65-80
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    • 2020
  • This paper deals with risk assessment of life in a landslide-prone area by a GIS-based modeling method. Landslide susceptibility maps can provide a probability of landslide prone areas to mitigate or proper control this problems and to take any development plan and disaster management. A landslide inventory map of the study area was prepared based on past historical information and aerial photography analysis. A total of 550 landslides have been counted at the whole study area. The extracted landslides were randomly selected and divided into two different groups, 50% of the landslides were used for model calibration and the other were used for validation purpose. Eleven causative factors (continuous and thematic) such as slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index, elevation, forest type, forest crown density, geology, land-use, soil drainage, and soil texture were used in hazard analysis. The correlation between landslides and these factors, pixels were divided into several classes and frequency ratio was also extracted. Eventually, a landslide susceptibility map was constructed using a logistic regression model based on entire events. Moreover, the landslide susceptibility map was plotted with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculated the area under the curve (AUC) and tried to extract a success rate curve. Based on the results, logistic regression produced an 85.18% accuracy, so we believed that the model was reliable and acceptable for the landslide susceptibility analysis on the study area. In addition, for risk assessment, vulnerability scale were added for social thematic data layer. The study area predictive landslide affected pixels 2,000 and 5,000 were also calculated for making a probability table. In final calculation, the 2,000 predictive landslide affected pixels were assumed to run. The total population causalities were estimated as 7.75 person that was relatively close to the actual number published in Korean Annual Disaster Report, 2006.

Drought Evaluation by A Drought Frequency Formula (가뭄빈도공식을 이용한 가뭄의 평가)

  • Kang, In-Joo;Yoon, Yong-Nam
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.2 no.3 s.6
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 2002
  • Drought is a very difficult natural disaster to overcome because its beginning and end are not clear to define, and it is widely distributed in space and has long term persistence. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the drought at Mokpo using drought frequency formula suggested by Sharma(1997). The precipitation records for the period 1906-1999 at Mokpo meteorological station are used for drought analysis. The most severe drought year is found to be that of 1995, which is of the 30-year frequency, and 18 drought years are selected based on the 5-year drought frequency.

GPU-based Stereo Matching Algorithm with the Strategy of Population-based Incremental Learning

  • Nie, Dong-Hu;Han, Kyu-Phil;Lee, Heng-Suk
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.105-116
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    • 2009
  • To solve the general problems surrounding the application of genetic algorithms in stereo matching, two measures are proposed. Firstly, the strategy of simplified population-based incremental learning (PBIL) is adopted to reduce the problems with memory consumption and search inefficiency, and a scheme for controlling the distance of neighbors for disparity smoothness is inserted to obtain a wide-area consistency of disparities. In addition, an alternative version of the proposed algorithm, without the use of a probability vector, is also presented for simpler set-ups. Secondly, programmable graphics-hardware (GPU) consists of multiple multi-processors and has a powerful parallelism which can perform operations in parallel at low cost. Therefore, in order to decrease the running time further, a model of the proposed algorithm, which can be run on programmable graphics-hardware (GPU), is presented for the first time. The algorithms are implemented on the CPU as well as on the GPU and are evaluated by experiments. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm offers better performance than traditional BMA methods with a deliberate relaxation and its modified version in terms of both running speed and stability. The comparison of computation times for the algorithm both on the GPU and the CPU shows that the former has more speed-up than the latter, the bigger the image size is.