• 응용통계연구
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.587-595
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• 2011

Credit scoring is an objective and automatic system to assess the credit risk of each customer. The logistic regression model is one of the popular methods of credit scoring to predict the default probability; however, it may not detect possible nonlinear features of predictors despite the advantages of interpretability and low computation cost. In this paper, we propose to use a generalized partially linear model as an alternative to logistic regression. We also introduce modern ensemble technologies such as bagging, boosting and random forests. We compare these methods via a simulation study and illustrate them through a German credit dataset.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제22권52호
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• pp.311-322
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• 1999

Major problems involved in an electrical utility expansion planning within a time horizon are how to efficiently deal with objectives considering multiple factors and uncertainty. But justification factors in study these days have considered only quantitative factors except qualitative factors. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop a new model for economic evaluation of nuclear power plants through the scoring model with the quantitative and qualitative factors under uncertainty. The quantitative factors use a levelized generation cost method considering time value of money. Especially, the environmental, risk, and safety factors in this paper have been also explained for the rational economic justification of the qualitative factors under uncertainty. This paper not only proposes a new approach method using the scoring model in evaluating economy of the nuclear power plant in the long term, but also provides the more efficient decision making criterion for nuclear power plants under uncertainty.

• Gut and Liver
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.674-681
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• 2018

Background/Aims: The cumulative surgery rate and postoperative relapse of intestinal Behçet's disease (BD) have been reported to be high. This study aimed to establish a scoring system based on follow-up endoscopic findings that can predict intestinal BD recurrence after surgery. Methods: Fifty-four patients with intestinal BD who underwent surgery due to bowel complications and underwent follow-up colonoscopy were retrospectively investigated. Their clinical data, including colonoscopic findings, were retrieved. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to develop an appropriate endoscopic classification model that can explain the postsurgical recurrence of intestinal BD most accurately based on the following classification: e0, no lesions; e1, solitary ulcer <20 mm in size; e2, solitary ulcer ${\geq}20mm$ in size; and e3, multiple ulcers regardless of size. Results: Clinical relapse occurred in 37 patients (68.5%). Among 38 patients with colonoscopic recurrence, only 29 patients had clinically relapsed. Multivariate analysis identified higher disease activity index for intestinal BD at colonoscopy (hazard ratio [HR], 1.013; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.005 to 1.021; p=0.002) and colonoscopic recurrence (HR, 2.829; 95% CI, 1.223 to 6.545; p=0.015) as independent risk factors for clinical relapse of intestinal BD. Endoscopic findings were classified into four groups, and multivariate analysis showed that the endoscopic score was an independent risk factor of clinical relapse (p=0.012). The risk of clinical relapse was higher in the e3 group compared to the e0 group (HR, 6.284; 95% CI, 2.036 to 19.391; p=0.001). Conclusions: This new endoscopic scoring system could predict clinical relapse in patients after surgical resection of intestinal BD.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.7-15
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• 1979

This study was undertaken to determine .the identify the relation between the high risk mother and their baby which then allows the nurse to assess and plen for the delivery of optimal health care to the high risk groups. This study was carried out between January through December 1978. This study sample consisted of 300 pregnant women who visited Ewha womens hospital during this time. The method used to for the collection of data was an“Antepartum High-risk pregnancy scoring form. The questionair included 4 categories: 1) reproductives history 2) Associated conditions 3) pre-sent pregnancy and 4) total risk score . The bind are as follows: 1. The frequency of high risk pregnancy women 149(49.7%) was highest. 2. In the investigation sample high risk factors were related to hypertension and toremia. 3. There was a difference in the high risk scores and newborn babys scores (r = 0.610). 4. Relationship between high risk pregnancy women and least of pregnant women was highest prenatal mortality. Implications of positive assessing of high risk factors by MCH nurse and community health nurses.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.7-21
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• 1983

For the flexible and rational distribution of limited existing health resources based on measurements of individual risk, the socalled Risk Approach is being proposed by the World Health Organization as a managerial tool in maternal and child health care program. This approach, in principle, puts us under the necessity of developing a technique by which we will be able to measure the degree of risk or to discriminate the future outcomes of pregnancy on the basis of prior information obtainable at prenatal care delivery settings. Numerous recent studies have focussed on the identification of relevant risk factors as the Prior infer mation and on defining the adverse outcomes of pregnancy to be dicriminated, and also have tried on how to develope scoring system of risk factors for the quantitative assessment of the factors as the determinant of pregnancy outcomes. Once the scoring system is established the technique of classifying the patients into with normal and with adverse outcomes will be easily de veloped. The scoring system should be developed to meet the following four basic requirements. 1) Easy to construct 2) Easy to use 3) To be theoretically sound 4) To be valid In searching for a feasible methodology which will meet these requirements, the author has attempted to apply the“Likelihood Method”, one of the well known principles in statistical analysis, to develop such scoring system according to the process as follows. Step 1. Classify the patients into four groups: Group $A_1$: With adverse outcomes on fetal (neonatal) side only. Group $A_2$: With adverse outcomes on maternal side only. Group $A_3$: With adverse outcome on both maternal and fetal (neonatal) sides. Group B: With normal outcomes. Step 2. Construct the marginal tabulation on the distribution of risk factors for each group. Step 3. For the calculation of risk score, take logarithmic transformation of relative proport-ions of the distribution and round them off to integers. Step 4. Test the validity of the score chart. h total of 2, 282 maternity records registered during the period of January 1, 1982-December 31, 1982 at Ewha Womans University Hospital were used for this study and the“Questionnaire for Maternity Record for Prenatal and Intrapartum High Risk Screening”developed by the Korean Institute for Population and Health was used to rearrange the information on the records into an easy analytic form. The findings of the study are summarized as follows. 1) The risk score chart constructed on the basis of“Likelihood Method”ispresented in Table 4 in the main text. 2) From the analysis of the risk score chart it was observed that a total of 24 risk factors could be identified as having significant predicting power for the discrimination of pregnancy outcomes into four groups as defined above. They are: (1) age (2) marital status (3) age at first pregnancy (4) medical insurance (5) number of pregnancies (6) history of Cesarean sections (7). number of living child (8) history of premature infants (9) history of over weighted new born (10) history of congenital anomalies (11) history of multiple pregnancies (12) history of abnormal presentation (13) history of obstetric abnormalities (14) past illness (15) hemoglobin level (16) blood pressure (17) heart status (18) general appearance (19) edema status (20) result of abdominal examination (21) cervix status (22) pelvis status (23) chief complaints (24) Reasons for examination 3) The validity of the score chart turned out to be as follows: a) Sensitivity: Group $A_1$: 0.75 Group $A_2$: 0.78 Group $A_3$: 0.92 All combined : 0.85 b) Specificity : 0.68 4) The diagnosabilities of the“score chart”for a set of hypothetical prevalence of adverse outcomes were calculated as follows (the sensitivity“for all combined”was used). Hypothetidal Prevalence : 5％ 10％ 20％ 30％ 40％ 50％ 60％ Diagnosability : 12% 23% 40% 53% 64% 75% 80%.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2010년도 춘계 학술발표회
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• pp.279-290
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• 2010

Technical countermeasures against debris flow should be established upon the risk level of the target location. Risk of debris flow should consider the hazard imposed by debris flow and vulnerability of the facilities to debris flow. In this research, we have defined the target location for risk evaluation and suggested scoring method of hazard of debris flow and vulnerability of road to debris flow. By defining risk rank into 6 categories in terms of possibility of damage during rainfall and using the risk scores of 46 debris flow cases, we have suggested risk ranking matrix. The method can be used in ranking the drainage basin adjacent to road by simply determining the hazard with vulnerability score and can be used for planning the debris flow countermeasures.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.109-121
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• 2005

A chemical ranking and scoring (CRS-Korea) system was developed and proposed to use as the first step to prioritize the toxic chemicals for the purpose of monitoring and detailed risk assessment that might follow as necessary. The CRS-Korea system takes a basic concept of risk assessment (both human health risk and ecological risk) in that risk score is determined by the product of toxicity score and exposure score. Included in the toxicity category are acute toxicity, chronic/sub -chronic toxicity, carcinogenicity, and other toxicity. The exposure category consists of quantity released to the environment, bioconcentration, and persistence. A consistent scheme and a comprehensive chemical data base are offered in the CRS-Korea system to calculate a score for the each component in the two categories by using specific physicochemical, fate, and toxic properties and the quantity of the chemical used. The toxicity score is obtained by adding up all the individual scores for the components in the toxicity category. The exposure score is determined by multiplication of the score of the quantity released with the sum of persistent score and bioconcentration score. Equal weight is given to the toxicity score and the exposure score. As the CRS-Korea system was applied to identify 50 national priority chemicals, it was found that significant data gap exists on toxicity and fate properties and that the uncertainty associated with estimating the quantify released to the environment is notably high. The proposed CRS system is only a screening tool in the first step toward the priority setting and should be used with expert judgement and other considerations necessary.

• 한국생활과학회지
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.899-908
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• 2007

Clusters of parental and peer variables associated with adolescent risk behaviors are explored using the mixture model. Questionnaires were completed by 917 high school freshmen in the Daegu Kyungpook area and included measures of risk behaviors, parental attachment, autonomy, parental monitoring, and peers' risk behaviors and desirable behaviors. As a result of the mixture model, five clusters were produced. Two of the subgroups were consistent with the literature of showing linear relationships among adolescent risk behaviors and above variables; a group of higher parental attachment and autonomy as well as parental monitoring, lower friends' risk behaviors, and lower adolescent risk behaviors, and a group of lower parental attachment and autonomy as well as parental monitoring, higher friends' risk behaviors, and higher adolescent risk behaviors. Two other subgroups were similar in parental attachment and autonomy, but differed in parental monitoring, friends' risk behaviors, and adolescent risk behaviors. The last subgroup was characterized by scoring the lowest parental attachment and autonomy, parental monitoring, friends' risk behaviors, and lower adolescent risk behaviors compared to other subgroups. The utility of the mixture model in research on adolescent risk behaviors is discussed in the conclusion.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.119-127
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• 2009

이 연구는 다양한 병명을 가진 입원환자의 영양불량위험의 진단을 간단하고 신속하게 실시할 수 있고 재원기간 내의 임상결과를 유의하게 예측하며 NRS 2002와 비교하여 평가하였을 때 일정 수준 이상의 타당도를 가지는 영양불량 위험 검색도구를 (Nutritional Risk Screening Tool, NRST) 개발하고자 하였다. NRST의 개발 및 평가는 서울 소재 일개 종합병원에 1년여의 기간 동안 입원한 성인 환자를 대상으로 수집된 자료를 이용하여 NRST 구성요소의 선정, NRST scoring scheme의 탐색, NRST 평가의 기준점 설정, NRST의 임상결과 예측력 재확인 등의 총 4단계의 과정을 통하여 실시되었다. 아래에 본 연구의 결과 및 결론을 요약하였다. 1) 재원일수, 사망여부, 합병증 유무, 질병예후를 각각 종속변수로 하는 stepwise multiple regression을 시행한 결과 나이와 혈청 내 albumin, TLC, Hct 농도가 NRST의 구성요소로 선정되었다. 2) 선정된 각 NRST 구성요소의 수준에 따른 NRS 2002의 OR에 기준하여 NRST의 scoring scheme을 아래와 같이 설정하였다. $NRST=Albumin{\times}1+Age{\times}2.5+Hct{\times}1.5+TLC{\times}2{\ast}$ ${\ast}$ Coding:Albumin <3.5:1, ${\geqq}$ 3.5：0.Age>65:1, ${\leqq}$65:0.Hct<37:1, ${\geqq}$37：0.TLC<1800：1, ${\geqq}$1800：0. 3) NRST의 점수변화에 따른 NRS 2000에 대한 민감도와 특이도를 바탕으로 NRST에 의한 영양불량 위험의 진단 기준점수를 3.5 이상으로 정하였다. 4) NRST 결과에 따른 재원일수, 합병증여부, 질병 예후, 사망여부 등의 차이를 검토한 결과 개발된 NRST가 만족할 만한 수준의 임상결과 예측력을 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 5) NRST는 다양한 진단명을 가진 입원환자의 영양불량 위험 여부를 향후의 임상결과와 관련하여 신속하게 진단하는데 유용하리라 사료된다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.899-910
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• 2017

Nomogram is useful for predicting the prevalence of each patient through the scoring system without a complex formula. Because there are few studies on chronic otitis media (COM) in adults, this study aims to identify the relevant risk factors for COM in Korean adults and to build a nomogram for the risk factors. The Health Interview Survey data subset, derived from the Sixth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES VI), was used to evaluate the participants. Of the participants, the weighted prevalence of COM was 5.3%. Residence, earphone use, atopic dermatitis, allergic rhinitis, chronic rhinosinusitis, and subjective hearing status were identified as risk factors for COM. Using 6 risk factors, we propose a nomogram for COM, and use AUC to verify the discrimination of the nomogram.