• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk response

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Risk-Based Allocation of Demand Response Resources Using Conditional Value-at Risk (CVaR) Assessment

  • Kim, Ji-Hui;Lee, Jaehee;Joo, Sung-Kwan
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.789-795
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    • 2014
  • In a demand response (DR) market run by independent system operators (ISOs), load aggregators are important market participants who aggregate small retail customers through various DR programs. A load aggregator can minimize the allocation cost by efficiently allocating its demand response resources (DRRs) considering retail customers' characteristics. However, the uncertain response behaviors of retail customers can influence the allocation strategy of its DRRs, increasing the economic risk of DRR allocation. This paper presents a risk-based DRR allocation method for the load aggregator that takes into account not only the physical characteristics of retail customers but also the risk due to the associated response uncertainties. In the paper, a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is applied to deal with the risk due to response uncertainties. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A study on the development of Enterprise Risk Management System in Airport Corporation (공항운영기업의 전사적 위험관리체계 분석 연구)

  • Seo, Byung Seok;Shin, Do Hyoung
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2015
  • Enterprise Risk Management(ERM) is aiming at the establishment of the risk management process to prevent and cope with risks in advance and is composed of Risk Identification, Risk Assessment, Risk Response and Monitoring. It is feedback through the Risk Re-identification. This study has analysed a sample of the risk management system of an airport operating corporation, for this purpose, relevant documents and examples of overseas airports have been reviewed. It has found that corporations establishing ERM have been performing identical procedures such as the process of Identification, Assessment, Effective Reporting, Communication and monitoring and so on. The A corporation has established the process for risk management and crisis management and organized for its organization and system. The risk management has the same process such as above. In this process, when the symptoms of critical crisis have been recognized, it has been transformed into crisis management system, through which, corporate-wide response has been conducted in the process of crisis status analysis, response and follow-up management. This study expects to contribute to systematic foundation for future business continuity on the basis of risks and response procedures acknowledged by this study.

A Model of the Risk Response Repeat Process in the Construction Project (건설공사 위험대응 반복 프로세스 모델)

  • Kim Seon-Gyoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.3 no.1 s.9
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2002
  • Recently, a few major construction companies in Korea have a growing interests to the risk management system, and they are trying to apply it to their construction projects. However, the existing methodologies to be applied to the foreign public projects are not proper to the construction environments due to its adaptabilities, that has one time process and heavily depends on personal judgement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a risk response process in consideration of the residual risks, which would be more adaptable and practical in the construction environment, overcoming the current obstacles to be mentioned above. This process has systematic repeat process until the residual risks go down to the risk thresholds based on the efficiency of specific response strategy.

On the Effective Oil Spill Response Model along the Coastal Waters in Korea - Evaluation of the Regional Response Capabilities at the Port of Ulsan - (한국연안해역에서의 효과적인 유류오염방제 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Jong-Hwui
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 1999
  • To find characteristics and areas of greater risk of oil spill at the coastal waters in Korea, some of risk factors were analyzed with historical data of oil spill and marine traffic. As a result, it is characterized that frequency of oil spill is increasing year by year and greatest percentage of spill source is fishing boat. It is proposed that the ports of Ulsan, Yeosu, Incheon and Pusan will be designated as primary area of risk as they have a higher risk of oil spills and its response authority is required to maintain appropriate regional response capability for prompt and effective response to a future spill incident. In addition, the regional response equipments at Ulsan are examined under a assumption of a medium size spill and it is found that the use of chemical dispersant can be an alternative when mechanical containment and recovery is not feasible in this area, and the existing response equipments may be appropriate to address that size of spill. However, the response authority is required to maintain more numbers of stronger boom for unsheltered waters and more quantity of concentrate dispersant to disperse all spilled oils on the water, furthermore the response authority should be prepared for a possible future catastrophic spill with sufficient equipments.

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Effects of the Perceived Risk on the Consumers′ Purchase Attitudes in the Internet Shopping Malls (인터텟 쇼핑몰에서 소비자의 지각된 위험이 구매 태도에 미치는 영향)

  • 정인근;김윤호
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.184-187
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study is to find the perceived risk which influences consumers' purchase attitudes so that consumers' participation in electronic commerce could be enhanced. Consumer behavior involves risk in the sense that any action of a consumer will produce consequences which one cannot anticipate, and some of which are at least likely to be unpleasant. The types of perceived risks are financial risk, performance risk, social risk, psychological risk, time loss, opportunity loss, privacy risk, fashion loss, delivery risk, seller's response risk and seller's fraud risk The findings are as follows: $\circled1$ The financial risk, performance risk, time loss, delivery risk, seller's response risk and seller's fraud risk have negative effects on the consumers' purchase attitudes. $\circled2$ There is no difference in the level of perceived risk according to the demographic factors such as age, education and income level.

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Estimated Risk of Radiation Induced Contra Lateral Breast Cancer Following Chest Wall Irradiation by Conformal Wedge Field and Forward Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy Technique for Post-Mastectomy Breast Cancer Patients

  • Athiyaman, Hemalatha;M, Athiyaman;Chougule, Arun;Kumar, HS
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.12
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    • pp.5107-5111
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    • 2016
  • Background: Epidemiological studies have indicated an increasing incidence of radiation induced secondary cancer (SC) in breast cancer patients after radiotherapy (RT), most commonly in the contra-lateral breast (CLB). The present study was conducted to estimate the SC risk in the CLB following 3D conformal radiotherapy techniques (3DCRT) including wedge field and forward intensity modulated radiotherapy (fIMRT) based on the organ equivalent dose (OED). Material and Methods: RT plans treating the chest wall with conformal wedge field and fIMRT plans were created for 30 breast cancer patients. The risks of radiation induced cancer were estimated for the CLB using dose-response models: a linear model, a linear-plateau model and a bell-shaped model with full dose response accounting for fractionated RT on the basis of OED. Results: The plans were found to be ranked quite differently according to the choice of model; calculations based on a linear dose response model fIMRT predict statistically significant lower risk compared to the enhanced dynamic wedge (EDW) technique (p-0.0089) and a non-significant difference between fIMRT and physical wedge (PW) techniques (p-0.054). The widely used plateau dose response model based estimation showed significantly lower SC risk associated with fIMRT technique compared to both wedge field techniques (fIMRT vs EDW p-0.013, fIMRT vs PW p-0.04). The full dose response model showed a non-significant difference between all three techniques in the view of second CLB cancer. Finally the bell shaped model predicted interestingly that PW is associated with significantly higher risk compared to both fIMRT and EDW techniques (fIMRT vs PW p-0.0003, EDW vs PW p-0.0032). Conclusion: In conclusion, the SC risk estimations of the CLB revealed that there is a clear relation between risk associated with wedge field and fIMRT technique depending on the choice of model selected for risk comparison.

Estimating Risk Interdependency Ratio for Construction Projects: Using Risk Checklist in Pre-construction Phase

  • Kim, Junyoung;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Park, Moonseo;Kwon, Nahyun
    • Architectural research
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2019
  • Risk assessment during pre-construction phase is important due to the uncertainty of the risks that may exist in projects. Risk checklist is a method to systematically classify and organize the risks that have been experienced in the past, and to identify the risk factors that may be present in the future projects. In addition, risk value assessment based on checklists plays a key role in risk management, and various risk assessment researches have been conducted to carry out this systematically. However, previous approaches have limitations in common, this is because risk values are evaluated individually in risk checklists, which ignore interdependencies among risk factors and neglect the emergence of co-occurrence of risks. Hence, when multiple risk factors cooccur, they cannot be far off from the conventional method of summing the total risk value to establish the risk response strategy. Most of risk factors are interdependent and may have multiple effects if occurred than expected. In particular, specific cause can be overlapped if multiple risks co-occur, and this may result in overestimation of the risk response for the future project. Thus, the objective of this research is to propose a model to help decision makers to quantify the risk value reflecting the interdependency during the identification phase using existing risk checklist that is currently being practiced in actual construction projects. The proposed model will provide the guideline to support the prediction and identification of the interdependency of risks in practice. In addition, the better understanding and prediction of the exceeding risk response by co-occurring risks during the risk identification phase for decision makers.

BIOLOGICALLY BASED DOSE-RESPONSE (BBDR) MODELING USING BIOMARKERS FOR CANCEER RISK ASSESSMENT

  • Song, Hyun-Sue;Lee, Byung-Mu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Toxicology Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.137-137
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    • 2002
  • Biologically Based Dose-Response (BBDR) models were developed using biomarkers for cancer risk assessment. To establish the relationship among biomarkers, exposure dose and tumor response, biomarkers in the lung, liver, stomach or blood were measured after a single or continuous administration of selected carcinogen (; BaP) in mice or rats.(omitted)

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Risk Assessment for Noncarcinogenic Chemical Effects

  • Kodell Ralph L.
    • 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1994.02a
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    • pp.412-415
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    • 1994
  • The fundamental assumption that thresholds exist for noncarcinogenic toxic effects of chemicals is reviewed; this assumption forms the basis for the no-observed-effect level/ safety-factor (NOEL/SF) approach to risk assessment for such effects. The origin and evolution of the NOEL/SF approach are traced, and its limitations are discussed. The recently proposed use of dose-response modeling to estimate a benchmark dose as a replacement for the NOEL is explained. The possibility of expanding dose-response modeling of non carcinogenic effects to include the estimation of assumed thresholds is discussed. A new method for conversion of quantitative toxic responses to a probability scale for risk assessment via dose-response modeling is outlined.

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Fundamental Research on the Development of a Risk Based Decision Support System for Maritime Accident Response: Focused on Oil Tanker Grounding (위험도기반 해양사고 초기대응 지원 시스템 개발 기초연구: 유조선 좌초사고를 중심으로)

  • Na, Seong;Lee, Seung-Hyun;Choi, Hyuek-Jin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.391-400
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    • 2016
  • A number of maritime accidents, and accident response activities, including the command and control procedures that were implemented at accident scenes, are analyzed to derive useful information about responding to maritime accidents, and to understand how the chain of events developed after the initial accident. In this research, a new concept of a 'risk based accident response support system' is proposed. In order to identify the event chains and associated hazards related to the accident response activities, this study proposes a 'Brainstorming technique for scenario identification', based on the concept of the HAZID technique. A modified version of Event Tree Analysis was used for quantitative risk analysis of maritime accident response activities. PERT/CPM was used to analyze accident response activities and for calculating overall (expected) response activity completion time. Also, the risk based accident response support system proposed in this paper is explained using a simple case study of risk analysis for oil tanker grounding accident response.