• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk management

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The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM (다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형)

  • Park, Ji-Young;Hong, Tae-Ho
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

Overwintering pattern of larvae of Chilo suppressalis Walker in the bioenergy crop Miscanthus sacchariflorus cv. Geodae 1 (바이오에너지작물 거대억새 가해 해충 이화명나방 유충 월동양상)

  • An, Gi Hong;Yang, Jungwoo;Jang, Yun-Hui;Um, Kyoung Ran;Kim, Seok;Cha, Young-Lok;Yoon, Young-Mi;Moon, Youn-Ho;Ahn, Joung Woong;Yu, Gyeong-Dan
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.59 no.3
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    • pp.369-374
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    • 2014
  • The rice stem borer (Chilo suppressalis Walker) was one of the most destructive pest of rice for the 1960s and 1970s in Korea. Recently, it is newly recognized as a potential risk factor to the biomass yield of bioenergy crops. The current research was firstly conducted to investigate overwintering larvae population density and pattern of rice stem borer attacking Miscanthus sacchariflorus cv. Geodae 1 which is referred to as an ideal lignocellulosic bioenergy crop in Korea. Population density of larvae per $1m^2$ in stems and rhizomes at the Miscanthus experimental plots and rates of damage (wormhole, abscission) of M. sacchariflorus cv. Goedae 1 were investigated from October 2012 to March 2013. The population of larvae per $1m^2$ in stems of Miscanthus were 23, 4, 1, and 1 in October, November, December 2012, and January 2013, respectively. Over the same period, the population of larvae in basal stem rots and rhizomes were increased, whereas decreased in stems. Interestingly, the positions of larvae for overwintering in Miscanthus were confirmed to 5~10 cm below the soil surface such as basal stem rot and rhizome, whereas the most common overwintering position known in rice is a part of stem on the ground such as rice straw and rice stubble. It would suggest that the larvae gradually moved to bottom of stems and rhizomes in soil in line with decline in temperature. Moreover, the damage rates of stems per $1m^2$ were up to more than 50% in some places. In conclusion, this might be the first report that rice stem borer could affect the productivity of biomass of Miscanthus in case of mass cultivation. Moreover, it should be necessary to make a decision in insect control management for this bioenergy feedstock and other related crops.

Study on the Fire Risk Prediction Assessment due to Deterioration contact of combustible cables in Underground Common Utility Tunnels (지하공동구내 가연성케이블의 열화접촉으로 인한 화재위험성 예측평가)

  • Ko, Jaesun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2015
  • Recent underground common utility tunnels are underground facilities for jointly accommodating more than 2 kinds of air-conditioning and heating facilities, vacuum dust collector, information processing cables as well as electricity, telecommunications, waterworks, city gas, sewerage system required when citizens live their daily lives and facilities responsible for the central function of the country but it is difficult to cope with fire accidents quickly and hard to enter into common utility tunnels to extinguish a fire due to toxic gases and smoke generated when various cables are burnt. Thus, in the event of a fire, not only the nerve center of the country is paralyzed such as significant property damage and loss of communication etc. but citizen inconveniences are caused. Therefore, noticing that most fires break out by a short circuit due to electrical works and degradation contact due to combustible cables as the main causes of fires in domestic and foreign common utility tunnels fire cases that have occurred so far, the purpose of this paper is to scientifically analyze the behavior of a fire by producing the model of actual common utility tunnels and reproducing the fire. A fire experiment was conducted in a state that line type fixed temperature detector, fire door, connection deluge set and ventilation equipment are installed in underground common utility tunnels and transmission power distribution cables are coated with fire proof paints in a certain section and heating pipes are fire proof covered. As a result, in the case of Type II, the maximum temperature was measured as $932^{\circ}C$ and line type fixed temperature detector displayed the fire location exactly in the receiver at a constant temperature. And transmission power distribution cables painted with fire proof paints in a certain section, the case of Type III, were found not to be fire resistant and fire proof covered heating pipes to be fire resistant for about 30 minutes. Also, fire simulation was carried out by entering fire load during a real fire test and as a result, the maximum temperature is $943^{\circ}C$, almost identical with $932^{\circ}C$ during a real fire test. Therefore, it is considered that fire behaviour can be predicted by conducting fire simulation only with common utility tunnels fire load and result values of heat release rate, height of the smoke layer, concentration of O2, CO, CO2 etc. obtained by simulation are determined to be applied as the values during a real fire experiment. In the future, it is expected that more reliable information on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents can be provided and it will contribute to construction and maintenance repair effectively and systematically by analyzing and accumulating experimental data on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents built in this study and fire cases continuously every year and complementing laws and regulations and administration manuals etc.

Residue analysis of penicillines in livestock and marine products (국내 유통 축·수산물 중 페니실린계 동물용의약품에 대한 잔류실태조사)

  • Song, Ji-Young;Hu, Soo-Jung;Joo, Hyun-Jin;Kim, Mi-Ok;Hwang, Joung-Boon;Han, Yoon-Jung;Kwon, Yu-Jihn;Kang, Shin-Jung;Cho, Dae-Hyun
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.257-264
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    • 2012
  • Penicillins belong to the ${\beta}$-lactam class of antibiotics, and are frequently used in human and veterinary medicine. Despite the positive effects of these drugs, improper use of penicillins poses a potential health risk to consumers. This study has been undertaken to determinate multi-residues of penicillins, including amoxicillin, ampicillin, oxacillin, bezylpenicillin, cloxacillin, dicloxacillin, and nafcillin, using liquid chromatographic tandem mass spectrometer (LC-MS/MS). The developed method was validated for specificity, precision, recovery, and linearity in livestock and marine products. The analytes were extracted with 80% acetonitrile and clean-up by a single reversed-phase solid-phase extraction step. Six penicillins presented recoveries higher than 76% with the exception of Amoxicillin. Relative standard deviations (RSDs) were not more than 10%. The method was applied to 225 real samples. Benzylpenicillin was detected in 12 livestock products and 7 marine products. Amoxicillin, ampicillin, cloxacilllin, dicloxacillin, nafcillin and oxacillin were not detected. The detected levels were 0.001~0.009 mg/kg in livestock products excluding eggs and milk. In marine products, the detected levels were under 0.03 mg/kg. They were under the MRL levels. As monitoring results, it is identified to be safe but it is considered that safety management of antibiotics should continue by monitoring.

A Study on the Guideline Amounts of Sugar, Sodium and Fats in Processed Foods Met to Children's Taste (어린이 기호식품의 당, 나트륨 및 지방류의 영양기준안 설정에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Young-Sun;Chang, Nam-Soo;Joung, Hyo-Jee;Cho, Sung-Hee;Park, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.561-572
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    • 2008
  • Currently, Korea is facing dramatic nutrition transition among children, which may increase risk of degenerative diseases due to excessive intakes of fats, sugars and sodium. Promotion of eating healthier foods among children is difficult because the present nutrition label is not easily understood. Therefore, to promote healthier foods this study was aimed at developing guidance of standard amounts of high, medium and low levels of sugars, sodium, fats and other components contained in foods or drinks that are promoted to or formulated for consumption by children. Multipronged approach was used to collecting information, including key word searches in Medline and other databases, internet searches, reports from world organization, and contact of key individuals who work in organizations. We reviewed dietary reference intakes for Koreans, nutrient reference values, nutrient content claims of nutrition labeling, guideline daily amounts of United Kingdom, dietary guidelines and consumption data of nutrients, and selected components for labeling. And we decided goals of guideline daily amounts for children and nutrient criteria to underpin the high, medium and low content of each component. Then we collected data on processed foods sold at 12 middle schools and 11 high schools in Seoul, and classified processed foods into food category. Sales per one student per day were in the order of snacks, breads, and non-carbonated drinks. One hundred forty five mostly consumed products were selected and classified into criteria of high, medium and low total fat or sodium. Eighty five(58.6%) were classified into high fat food and only 11(7.6%) into high sodium food, in case that the base is chosen per 100 g or 100 mL. In conclusion, the nutrient criteria and choice of 100 g base, which we suggest in this study, need to be tested by simulation with more processed foods and refined in view of the practical issues suggested by stakeholders in future.

Nuclear Terrorism and Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism(GICNT): Threats, Responses and Implications for Korea (핵테러리즘과 세계핵테러방지구상(GICNT): 위협, 대응 및 한국에 대한 함의)

  • Yoon, Tae-Young
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.26
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    • pp.29-58
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    • 2011
  • Since 11 September 2001, warnings of risk in the nexus of terrorism and nuclear weapons and materials which poses one of the gravest threats to the international community have continued. The purpose of this study is to analyze the aim, principles, characteristics, activities, impediments to progress and developmental recommendation of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism(GICNT). In addition, it suggests implications of the GICNT for the ROK policy. International community will need a comprehensive strategy with four key elements to accomplish the GICNT: (1) securing and reducing nuclear stockpiles around the world, (2) countering terrorist nuclear plots, (3) preventing and deterring state transfers of nuclear weapons or materials to terrorists, (4) interdicting nuclear smuggling. Moreover, other steps should be taken to build the needed sense of urgency, including: (1) analysis and assessment through joint threat briefing for real nuclear threat possibility, (2) nuclear terrorism exercises, (3) fast-paced nuclear security reviews, (4) realistic testing of nuclear security performance to defeat insider or outsider threats, (5) preparing shared database of threats and incidents. As for the ROK, main concerns are transfer of North Korea's nuclear weapons, materials and technology to international terror groups and attacks on nuclear facilities and uses of nuclear devices. As the 5th nuclear country, the ROK has strengthened systems of physical protection and nuclear counterterrorism based on the international conventions. In order to comprehensive and effective prevention of nuclear terrorism, the ROK has to strengthen nuclear detection instruments and mobile radiation monitoring system in airports, ports, road networks, and national critical infrastructures. Furthermore, it has to draw up effective crisis management manual and prepare nuclear counterterrorism exercises and operational postures. The fundamental key to the prevention, detection and response to nuclear terrorism which leads to catastrophic impacts is to establish not only domestic law, institution and systems, but also strengthen international cooperation.

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Microbiological Quality and Growth and Survival of Foodborne Pathogens in Ready-To-Eat Egg Products (즉석섭취 알 가공품의 미생물학적 품질 및 주요 식중독 균의 증식·생존 분석)

  • Jo, Hye Jin;Choi, Beom Geun;Wu, Yan;Moon, Jin San;Kim, Young Jo;Yoon, Ki Sun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.178-188
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    • 2015
  • Microbial quality of baked egg products was evaluated by counting the levels of sanitary indicative bacteria (aerobic plate counts, coliforms, and E. coli), L. monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. at the critical control points (CCPs) of manufacturing process. In addition, the survival and growth of foodborne pathogens in various egg products (cheese, tuna, tteokgalbi, pizza omelets, baked egg, and steamed egg) were investigated at 4, 10, and $15^{\circ}C$. The contamination level of aerobic plate counts decreased from 4.67 log CFU/g at CCP 1 to 0.56 log CFU/g at CCP 3 in baked egg products. No coliforms and E. coli were detected at all CCPs. Although L. innocua and Salmonella spp. were identified at CCP 1, no L. monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. were detected in the final products. The contamination levels of aerobic plate counts and coliforms in egg strips and number of aerobic plate counts in Tteokgalbi omelet are higher than the microbiological standard of processed egg products. At $10^{\circ}C$, the growth of all pathogens was not prevented in omelet and baked egg, but the populations of S. Typhimurium and E. coli were reduced in steamed egg at $10^{\circ}C$, regardless of the presence of other pathogens. The growth of L. monocytogenes was faster than that of S. Typhimurium and E. coli in omelet. More rapid growth of S. Enteritidis than S. Typhimurium was observed in egg products, indicating the greater risk of S. Enteritidis than S. Typhimurium in egg products.

Establishment of Choline Analysis in Infant Formulas and Follow-up Formulas by Ion Chromatograph (이온크로마토그래프를 이용한 조제유류 및 영아용·성장기용 조제식 중 콜린 함량 분석법 연구)

  • Hwang, Kyung Mi;Ham, Hyeon Suk;Lee, Hwa Jung;Kang, Yoon Jung;Yoon, Hae Seong;Hong, Jin Hwan;Lee, Hyoun Young;Kim, Cheon Hoe;Oh, Keum Soon
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.411-417
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    • 2017
  • This study was conducted to establish the analysis method for the contents of choline in infant formulas and follow-up formulas by ion chromatograph (IC). To optimize the method, we compared several conditions for extraction, purification and instrumental measurement using spiked samples and certified reference material (CRM; NIST SRM 1849a) as test materials. IC method for choline was established using Ion Pac CG column and 18 mM $H_2SO_4$ mobile phase. The parameters of validation were specificity, linearity, LOD, LOQ, recovery, accuracy, precision and repeatability. The specificity was confirmed by the retention time and the linearity, $R_2$ was over 0.999 in range of 0.5~10 mg/L. The detection limit and quantification limit were 0.14, 0.43 mg/L. The accuracy and precision of this method using CRM were 95%, 2.1% respectively. Optimized methods were applied in sample analysis to verify the reliability. All the tested products were acceptable contents of choline compared with component specification for nutrition labeling. The standard operating procedures were prepared for choline to provide experimental information and to strengthen the management of nutrient in infant formula and follow-up formula.

Analysis and Safety Assessment of Antioxidants Migrated from Polyethylene and Polypropylene Food Packaging Materials into Food Simulants (폴리에틸렌 및 폴리프로필렌 기구·용기·포장 유래 산화방지제 분석 및 안전성평가)

  • Choi, Heeju;Choi, Jae Chun;Bae, In-Ae;Park, Se-Jong;Kim, MeeKyung
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.424-433
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    • 2017
  • Antioxidants are used in the manufacturing of commercial food packages made of polyolefin plastic such as polyethylene and polypropylene for the purpose to delay the oxidation reaction of the polymer due to oxygen or traces of ozone in the atmosphere. Additives in plastics may be migrated from the packaging materials into foods, thereby presenting a potential health risk to the consumer. Therefore, it is necessary to determine migration level of antioxidants from food packaging materials to foodstuffs in order to take proactive management. In this study, we have developed a method for the analysis of 10 antioxidants, which are butylated hydroxyanisole (BHA), butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT), Cyanox 2246, 425 and 1790, Irgafos 168, and Irganox 1010, 1330, 3114 and 1076, migrated from the food packaging materials into four food simulants for aqueous, acidic, alcoholic and fatty foods. The antioxidants were determined by reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatograph-ultraviolet detector with 276 nm after solid-phase extraction with a hydrophilic-lipophilic balance (HLB) cartridge or dilution with isopropanol. The analytical method showed a good linearity of coefficient ($R^2{\geq}0.99$), limits of detection (0.11~0.41 mg/L), and limits of quantification (0.34~1.24 mg/L). The recoveries of antioxidants spiked to four food simulants ranged from 71.3% to 109.4%. The migrated antioxidants in this study were within the safety levels that resulted from the safety assessment by the estimated daily intake to the tolerable daily intake.

A study on measures for the mitigation of fire damage in Korea super high-rise building through the improvement of domestic·foreign standards (국·내외 기준개선을 통한 국내 초고층 건축물의 화재피해경감 대책에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jaesun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.233-248
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    • 2017
  • Uniform laws and regulations and reasonable design is necessary for the prevention of possible fire in super high-rise building. To this end, this study focused on super high-rise and massive building-related architectural review performance-based design (PBD) evaluation disaster impact assessment (DIA), and provided fire engineering measures for improving fire prevention on the basis of performance-based design by analyzing the buildings subject to these systems and problems in terms of contents. Above all, in the aspect of law and standard improvement, first, with regard to dual parts of two statutes though significant portion of them has the same contents in performance-based design (PBD) evaluation and disaster impact assessment (DIA), it is necessary to operate the systems after making them conform with each other and consolidating or abolishing them. Second, if it is impossible to consolidate or abolish performance-based design (PBD) evaluation and disaster impact assessment (DIA), the areas of contents of performance-based design (PBD) evaluation and disaster impact assessment (DIA) should be precisely classified and established. Next, engineering improvement measures against fire hazard in super high-rise building are as follows. First, it is necessary to revise the provisions of straight-run stairs in special escape stairs. And in case of installing a mechanical smoke exhaust system instead of smoke vent, sandwich pressurization used in the United Stated should be permitted. Second, with regard to smoke control system for special escape stairs, it was shown that there was necessity for revising the standards in order to enable air to be supplied according to section in case of fire, carrying out performance-based design, and the like from the early design stages to the completion stages. In the future, it is expected that an epoch-making contribution will be made to a decrease in casualties and property damage due to fire in case of super high-rise building where the results can be reflected after carrying out a study on maintenance and carrying out an additional study on other considerations of super high-rise building together with reflecting the improvement measures provided in the above-mentioned study.