• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제54권10호
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• pp.480-486
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• 2005

This paper proposes a method to consider an aging failure probability and survival probability of power system components, though only aging failure probability has been considered in existing mean life calculation. The estimates of the mean and its standard deviation is calculated by using Weibull distribution, and each estimated parameters is obtained from Data Analytic Method (Type H Censoring). The parameter estimation using Data Analytic Method is simpler and faster than the traditional calculation method using gradient descent algorithm. This paper shows calculation procedure of the mean life and its standard deviation by the proposed method and illustrates that the estimated results are close enough to real historical data of combustion turbine generating units in Korean systems. Also, this paper shows the calculation procedures of a probabilistic failure prediction through a stochastic data analysis. Consequently, the proposed methods would be likely to permit that the new deregulated environment forces utilities to reduce overall costs while maintaining an are-related reliability index.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.53-58
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• 2000

In many cases, it is more practical and economical to repair a system than to replace the whole system or to perform a complete overhaul when it fails. The age replacement policy with minimal repair at failure is considered. The system is replaced every time its age reaches at $T_0$. For each intervening failure only minimal repair is done. The minimal repair times in a renewal period are increasing in the sense that the minimal repair times constitute a strictly increasing geometric process. The long-run expected cost rate Is obtained and the properties of the existence and the uniqueness of the optimal policy minimizing the long-run expected cost rate are derived.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.73-90
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• 2001

This paper presents the reliability models for redundant systems composed of repairable components whose failure time and repair time distributions are phase-type. It is shown that the distribution of time to system failure is also phase-type. The dependency between components are considered and integrated into the model by the used of the rate adjustment factor. The phase-type representation is constructed for the system through algebraic operations on the parameters of components\` failure time and repair time distributions and the corresponding rate adjustment factors. Types of system structures considered are parallel, k-out-of-N system with load sharing scheme and standby system with operation priority.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.67-73
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• 2014

A reliability evaluation or prediction can be defined as MTBF which stands for mean time between failures (Exclusively for repairable failures). Spindle system has huge effect on performance of machine tools and working quality as well as is required of high reliability. Especially, it takes great importance in producing automobiles which includes a large number of working processes. However, it is unusually difficult to predict reliability because there are lack of data and research about reliability of spindle system. Standards and methods of examinations for reliability evaluation of machine tools are scarce at local and abroad as well. Therefore, this research is meant to improve the reliability of spindle system before mass produced with developing standards of reliability and methods of examinations through FMEA to assess reliability of spindle system in prototype stages of developing high speed spindle system of machining center.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.39-48
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• 2001

Preventive maintenance(PM) is an action taken on a repairable system while it is still operating, which needs to be carried out in order to keep the system at the desired level of successful operation. In this paper, we consider a Bayesian approach to determine an optimal periodic preventive maintenance policy. When the failure time is Weibull distribution with uncertain parameters, a Bayesian approach is established. Some numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.609-628
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• 1995

This paper presents a reliability model and a data-analytic procedure for a repairable unit subject to failures due to multiple non-identifiable causes. We regard a failure cause as a state and assume the life distribution for each cause to be exponential. Then we represent the dependency among the causes by a Markov switching model(MSM) and estimate the transition probabilities and failure rates by maximum likelihood(ML) method. The failure data are incomplete due to masked causes of failures. We propose a specific version of EM(expectation and maximization) algorithm for finding maximum likelihood estimator(MLE) under this situation. We also develop statistical procedures for determining the number of significant states and for testing independency between state transitions. Our model requires only the successive failure times of a unit to perform the statistical analysis. It works well even when the causes of failures are fully masked, which overcomes the major deficiency of competing risk models. It does not require the assumption of stationarity or independency which is essential in mixture models. The stationary probabilities of states can be easily calculated from the transition probabilities estimated in our model, so it covers mixture models in general. The results of simulations show the consistency of estimation and accuracy gradually increasing according to the difference of failure rates and the frequency of transitions among the states.

• 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국원자력학회 1996년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(2)
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• pp.691-698
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• 1996

This paper propose a procedure to estimate the system lifetime distribution using simulation method in a parametric framework and also develop the criterion for terminating the simulation. We assume that a system is composed of many components whose lifetime and repair time distributions are general, and repair of each component is imperfect or not. General simulation algorithms can not be adopted for this case, due to the dependency of successive operating times and the discontinuity in base line intensity function of failure process. Then we propose algorithms for generating failure times subject to imperfect repair. We develop the event time tracking logic for identifying the system failure time, and also develop the criterion for terminating the simulation. Our procedure is composed of two phases. The first phase of the procedure is to generate the system failure times from the inputs. The second phase is to estimate the lifetime distribution of the system. The best model is selected by a fully automated procedure among well-known parametric families, and the required parameters are estimated. We give examples to show the accuracy of our procedure and the effect of repair effect of components to system MTTF(Mean Time To Failure).

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 1996

Ritchken(1985) analyzes free replacement and pro-rata warranty policies for products receiving renewable warranies. He shows that for constant failure rates pro-rata warranty policies are more attractive to risk-averse manufacturers than shorter term free replacement policies that result in the same average warranty cost. This paper considers the case when product lifetimes distributions are of phase-type. When this is so, Ritchken's performance measures can be simplified considerably. It is found, that irrespective of the pattern of failure rates, pro-rata warranty policies are preferable to free replacement policies. But the warranty period of the equivalent free replacement policy decreases and then increases, as product reliability(the average time between failures) increases.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.141-152
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• 2006

This paper presents the development of a decision model to examine the optimal repair action for a deteriorating system. In order to make a reasonable decision, it is necessary to perform an analysis of the uncertainties embedded in deterioration and to evaluate the repair actions based on the expected future cost. Focusing on the power law failure model, the uncertainties related to deterioration are analyzed based on the Bayesian approach. In addition, we develop a decision model for the optimal repair action by applying a repair cost function. A case study is given to illustrate a decision-making process by analyzing the loss incurred due to deterioration.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.41-53
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• 2010

In the present paper we develop a mathematical model that facilitates the calculation of reliability of a complex repairable system having three units namely super priority, priority and ordinary. The system is analyzed with the application of Gumbel Hougaard copula when different types of repair possible at a particular state due to deliberate failure. Various reliability measures such as reliability, MTTF and profit function have been evaluated by using supplementary variable and Laplace transform techniques.