• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2014.10a
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• pp.467-471
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• 2014

The natural frequencies of a mechanical system are determined by the system parameters such as masses and stiffness of the system. Since material irregularities and manufacturing tolerances always exist in most of practical engineering situations, the system parameters always have uncertainties. As the uncertainties of the parameters increase, the uncertainties of the system natural frequencies also increases. Then, the reliability of the system deteriorates. So, the uncertainty of the system natural frequencies should be analyzed accurately and considered in the design of the system. In order to analyze the uncertainty of the system natural frequencies employing most of existing uncertainty analysis methods, the probability distributions of the uncertain system parameters should be identified. In most practical situations, however, identification of the probability distributions is almost impossible because of limited time and cost. For that case, the reliability should be estimated based on finite samples of the system parameters. In this paper, sample based reliability estimation method employing extreme value theory was proposed. Using the proposed estimation method, sample based reliability design of the system natural frequencies was conducted.

• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.38-57
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• 2000

This paper deals with reliability analysis of specially orthotropic plates subjected to transverse lateral pressure loads by using Monte Carlo simulation method. The plates are simply supported around their all edges and have a low short span to plate depth ratio with rectangular plate shapes. Various levels of reliability analyses of the plates are performed within the context of First-Ply-Failure(FPF) analysis such as ply-/laminate-level reliability analyse, failure tree analysis and sensitivity analysis of basic design variables to estimated plate reliabilities. In performing all these levels of reliability analyses, the followings are considered within the Monte Carlo simulation method: (1) input parameters to the strengths of the plates such as applied transverse lateral pressure loads, elastic moduli, geometric including plate thickness and ultimate strength values of the plates are treated as basic design variables following a normal probability distribution; (2) the mechanical responses of the plates are calculated by using simplified higher-order shear deformation theory which can predict the mechanical responses of thick laminated plates accurately; and (3) the limit state equations are derived from polynomial failure criteria for composite materials such as maximum stress, maximum strain, Tsai-Hill, Tsai-Wu and Hoffman.

• IE interfaces
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.67-78
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• 1993

In this paper, we deal with the application of the fuzzy sets theory to evaluate and estimate the system reliability under the fault tree analysis. We formulate the uncertainty of component reliability to fuzzy sets, and propose a procedure for obtaining the system reliability in case the system structure is described by fault tree. An importance measure of each component is proposed. Computer program for fuzzy fault tree analysis(FFTA) is developed using C language to obtain the system reliability and the component‘s fuzzy importance.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.605-613
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• 2014

Epistemic uncertainty, the lack of knowledge, is often more important than aleatory uncertainty, variability, in estimating reliability of a system. While the probability theory is widely used for modeling aleatory uncertainty, there is no dominant approach to model epistemic uncertainty. Different approaches have been developed to handle epistemic uncertainties using various theories, such as probability theory, fuzzy sets, evidence theory and possibility theory. However, since these methods are developed from different statistics theories, it is difficult to interpret the result from one method to the other. The goal of this paper is to compare different methods in handling epistemic uncertainty in the view point of calculating the probability of failure. In particular, four different methods are compared; the probability method, the combined distribution method, interval analysis method, and the evidence theory. Characteristics of individual methods are compared in the view point of reliability analysis.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.1-15
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• 2006

The seismic safety of reinforced concrete containment building can be evaluated by probabilistic analysis considering randomness of earthquake, which is more rational than deterministic analysis. In the safety assessment of earthquake-resistant structures by the deterministic theory, it is not easy to consider the effects of random variables but the reliability theory and random vibration theory are useful to assess the seismic safety with considering random effects. The reliability assessment of reinforced concrete containment building subjected to earthquake load includes the structural analysis considering random variables such as load, resistance and analysis method, the definition of limit states and the reliability analysis. The reliability analysis procedure requires much time and labor and also needs to get the high confidence in results. In this study, random vibration analysis of containment building is performed with random variables as earthquake load, concrete compressive strength, modal damping ratio. The seismic responses of critical elements of structure are approximated at the most probable failure point by the response surface method. The response surface method helps to figure out the quantitative characteristics of structural response variability. And the limit state is defined as the failure surface of concrete under multi-axial stress, finally the limit state probability of failure can be obtained simply by first-order second moment method. The reliability analysis for the multiaxial strength limit state and the uniaxial strength limit state is performed and the results are compared with each other. This study concludes that the multiaxial failure criterion is a likely limit state to predict concrete failure strength under combined state of stresses and the reliability analysis results are compatible with the fact that the maximum compressive strength of concrete under biaxial compression state increases.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.38 no.6
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• pp.35-41
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• 1996

The theory of consolidation has been achieved remarkable development in terms of theory such as finite consolidation theory, two dimensional Rendulic consolidation theory. Though those theories are well defined, the analysis is by no means straightforward, because associated properties are very difficult to determine in the laboratory, Therefore Terzaghi's one dimensional consolidation theory and Barron's cylindrical consolidation theory are still widely used in engineering practice. The theoretical shortcomings of those consolidation theories and uncertainties of associated properties make inevitably some discrepancy between theoretical and field settlements. Field settlement measurement by settlement plate is, therefore, widely used to overcome the discrepancy. Ultimate settlement is one of the most important factor of embankment construction on soft soils. Nowadays the ultimate settlement prediction methods using field settlement data are widely accepted as a helpful tool for field settlement analysis of embankment construction on soft soils. Among the various methods of ultimate settlement prediction, hyperbolic method and Asaoka's method are most commonly used because of their simplicity and ability to give a reasonable estimate of consolidation settlement. In this paper, the reliability of hyperbolic method and Asaoka's method has been examined using analytical methods. It is shown that both hyperbolic method and Asaoka's method are significantly affected by the direction of drainage.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.31-36
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• 2010

Collecting all failures during life cycle of vehicle is not easy way because its life cycle is normally over 10 years. Warranty period can help gathering failures data because most customers try to repair its failures during warranty period even though small failures. This warranty data, which means failures during warranty period, can be a good resource to predict initial reliability and permanence reliability. However uncertainty regarding reliability prediction remains because this data is censored. University of Wuppertal and major auto supplier developed the reliability prognosis model considering censored data and this model introduce to predict reliability estimate further "failure candidate". This paper predicts reliability of telecommunications system in vehicle using the model and describes data structure for reliability prediction.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.763-771
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• 2008

Uncertainties are pervasive in engineering geological problems. Therefore, the presence of uncertainties and their significance in analysis and design of slopes have been recognized. Since the uncertainties cannot be taken into account by the conventional deterministic approaches in slope stability analysis, the probabilistic analysis has been considered as the primary tool for representing uncertainties in mathematical models. However, some uncertainties are caused by incomplete information due to lack of information, and those uncertainties cannot be handled appropriately by the probabilistic approach. For those uncertainties, the theory of fuzzy sets is more appropriate. Therefore, in this study, fuzzy reliability analysis has been proposed in order to deal with the uncertainties which cannot be quantified in the probabilistic analysis due to the limited information. For the practical example, a slope is selected in this study and both the probabilistic analysis and the fuzzy reliability analysis have been carried out for planar failure. In the fuzzy reliability analysis, the dip angle and internal friction angle of discontinuity are considered as triangular fuzzy numbers since the random properties of the variables cannot be obtained completely under the conditions of limited information. In the study, the fuzzy reliability index and the probabilities of failure are evaluated from fuzzy arithmetic and compared to those from the probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo simulation and point estimate method. The analysis results show that the fuzzy reliability analysis is more appropriate for the condition that the uncertainties arise due to incomplete information.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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• v.50 no.6
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• pp.848-862
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• 2020

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop an instrument to evaluate the needs satisfaction of nurses and examine its validity and reliability. Methods: The initial items for the instrument were developed through a literature review and interviews, using the conceptual framework of Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory. The initial items were evaluated for content validity by 14 experts. Four hundred and eighty-six clinical nurses participated in this study through offline and online surveys to test the reliability and validity of the instrument. The first evaluation (n = 256) was used for item analysis and exploratory factor analysis, and the second evaluation (n = 230) was used to conduct a confirmatory factor analysis and to assess the criterion-related validity and internal consistency of the instrument. Test-retest reliability was analyzed using data from 30 nurses. Results: The final instrument consisted of 30 items with two sub-factors for five needs that were identified through the confirmatory factor analysis. The criterion-related validity was established using the five need satisfaction measures (r = .56). Cronbach's α for total items was .90, and test-retest reliability was .89. Conclusion: The findings from this study indicate that this instrument has sufficient validity and reliability. This instrument can be used for the development of nursing interventions to improve the needs satisfaction of clinical nurses.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.3
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• pp.948-958
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• 2022

Since reliability and security of man-machine system increasingly depend on reliability of human, human reliability analysis (HRA) has attracted a lot of attention in many fields especially in nuclear engineering. Dependence assessment among human tasks is a important part in HRA which contributes to an appropriate evaluation result. Most of methods in HRA are based on experts' opinions which are subjective and uncertain. Also, the dependence influencing factors are usually considered to be constant, which is unrealistic. In this paper, a new model based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (DSET) and fuzzy number is proposed to handle the dependence between two tasks in HRA under uncertain and dynamic situations. First, the dependence influencing factors are identified and the judgments on the factors are represented as basic belief assignments (BBAs). Second, the BBAs of the factors that varying with time are reconstructed based on the correction BBA derived from time value. Then, BBAs of all factors are combined to gain the fused BBA. Finally, conditional human error probability (CHEP) is derived based on the fused BBA. The proposed method can deal with uncertainties in the judgments and dynamics of the dependence influencing factors. A case study is illustrated to show the effectiveness and the flexibility of the proposed method.