• 제목/요약/키워드: reliability prediction

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Prediction of Planning Time in Busan Ports-Connected Expressways

  • Kim, Tae-Gon
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제40권2호
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    • pp.51-56
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    • 2016
  • Expressways mean the primary arterial highways with a high level of efficiency and safety. However, Gyeongbu and Namhae expressways connected with Busan ports are showing travel time delay by increased traffic including the medium/large-sized vehicles of about 20% compared to those of about 13% regardless of the peak periods. This study, thus, intends to analyze lane traffic characteristics in the basic 8-lane segments of the above-mentioned expressways, compute the planning and buffer times based on travel time reliability, find the lane speed showing a higher correlation with planning time between the lane speeds in the basic 8-lane segments, and finally suggest a correlation model for predicting the planning time in expressways.

Prediction of ultimate moment anchorage capacity of concrete filled steel box footing

  • Bashir, Muhammad Aun;Furuuchi, Hitoshi;Ueda, Tamon;Bashir, M. Nauman
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.645-658
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    • 2013
  • The objective of the study is to predict the moment anchorage capacity of the concrete filled steel box (CFSB) as footing by using the 3D finite element program CAMUI developed by authors' laboratory. The steel box is filled with concrete and concrete filled steel tube (CFT) column is inserted in the box. Numerical simulation of the experimental specimens was carried out after introducing the new constitutive model for post peak behavior of concrete in compression under confinement. The experimental program was conducted to verify the reliability of the simulation results by the FE program. The simulated peak loads agree reasonably with the experimental ones and was controlled by concrete crushing near the column. After confirming the reliability of the FEM simulation, effects of different parameters on the moment anchorage capacity of concrete filled steel box footing were clarified by conducting numerically parametric study.

발전기 구성요소의 신뢰도 모델 조합을 이용한 고장확률 예측 (Failure Prediction of the Generator Using a Combined Reliability Model of its Individual Components)

  • 이성훈;변융태;김진오
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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    • pp.372-374
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents a methodology to predict a failure probability related to the aging generating units in Korea power system. Each generator is represented by a combined reliability model of its individual components, which is determined by failure data. The Weibull distribution is used to calculate failure probability and its parameters are obtained from Type II Censoring. Consequently, the proposed methods would likely to permit utilities to reduce overall costs in the new deregulated environment.

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열하중과 굽힘 하중 조건에서의 솔더조인트 피로 특성 비교연구 (A Comparative study on the solder joint fatigue under thermal and mechanical loading conditions)

  • 김일호;이순복
    • 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2007
  • In this study, two types of fatigue tests were conducted. Firs, cyclic bending tests were performed using the micro-bending tester. Second, thermal fatigue tests were conducted using a pseudo power cycling machine which was newly developed for a realistic testing condition. A three-dimensional finite element analysis model was constructed. A finite element analysis using ABAQUS was performed to extract the applied stress and strain in the solder joints. Creep deformation was dominant in thermal fatigue and plastic deformation was main parameter for bending failure. From the inelastic energy dissipation per cycle versus fatigue life curve, it can be found that the bending fatigue life is longer than the thermal fatigue life.

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임의의 하중 하에서 축소시스템 구성을 통한 구조물의 동적 거동 연구 (Time Integration in Reduced System Constructed by Two-level Condensation Scheme)

  • 김현기;조맹효
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 2004년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2004
  • This study constructs the reduced system by two-level condensation scheme. This scheme consists of two steps. First step selects the candidate area for the primary degrees of freedom by energy estimation in element level. In the second step, the primary degrees of freedom are selected by the sequential elimination scheme. The efficiency and reliability of this scheme is shown through the prediction of eigenvalues of a few numerical examples. Time integration in the reduced system can save the computing time effectively. The well-constructed reduced system can present the accurate behavior of the structure under arbitrary dynamic loads so much as the global system. Through the numerical example, the efficiency and reliability of the proposed scheme will be demonstrated.

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1:12축소 10층 조적 채움 R.C. 골조의 비선형 거동에 대한 실험과 해석의 상관성 (Correlation of Experimental and Analytical Inelastic Responses of A 1:12 Scale 10-Story Masonry-Infilled Reinforced Concrete Frame)

  • 이한선;김정우
    • 콘크리트학회논문집
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2000
  • In many structures, the masonry infill panels have been used for architectural reasons and their influence on the structure is often ignored by engineers. However, it has been recognized that the presence of masonry infills may debates. Recently, the pushover analysis technique is used for the prediction of the inelastic behaviors of structures in the seismic evaluation of existing buildings. However, the reliability of this analysis method has not been fully checked with the test results, particularly in the case of masonry-infilled frames. The objective of this study is to verify the correlation between the experimental and analytical reponses of a high-rise masonry-infilled reinforced concrete frame using DRAIN-2DX program and the test results performed previously. It is concluded from this comparison that the strength and stiffness of members can be predicted with quite high reliability while the ductility capacity of members can not be described reasonably.

Markov Process에 의한 시스템의 신뢰도 해석

  • 임덕빈;이대기
    • ETRI Journal
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.10-16
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    • 1983
  • 복잡한 시스템의 신뢰도를 해석하기 위해서는 가용도 (Availability) 및 각종 고장간격 등의parameter를 계산하여야 한다. 따라서 이들 parameter를 정의하고 이의 적용성에 대하여 언급하였으며, Markov process를 적용하여 각종 고장간격을 계산하는 기법을 유도하였다. 본 Markov process에 의한 신뢰도 해석기법은 제반 시스템의 상태확률을 계산하여 각종parameter를 구하게 되므로 다양한 시스템의 상태를 해석할 수 있으며, 시스템의 신뢰도 예측은 물론 정비계획을 수행하는 데에도 광범위하게 응용할 수 있다.

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전동차 대차 프레임의 확률론적 구조 건전성 평가 (Probabilistic Estimation of the Structural Integrity of an Electric Car Bogie Frame)

  • 구병춘;서정원;김남포;김원경
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2001년도 추계학술대회논문집A
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    • pp.161-165
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    • 2001
  • Bogie frame of the electric car is an important structural member for the support of vehicle loading. In general, more than 25 years' durability is necessary. Much study has been carried out for the prediction of the structural integrity of the bogie frame in experimental and theoretical domains. One of the useful methods is reliability-based approach. The objective of this paper is to estimate the structural integrity of the bogie frame of an electric car, which is under the running test. We used two approachs. In the first approach probabilistic distribution of S-N curve is used. In the second approach, limit state function is used.

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지반침하에 대한 매설배관의 건전성 평가 (Reliability Estimation of the Buried Pipelines for the Ground Subsidence)

  • 이억섭;김의상;김동혁
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정밀공학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.1557-1560
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents the effect of varying boundary conditions such as ground subsidence on failure prediction of buried pipelines. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with three cases of ground subsidence. We estimate the distribution of stresses imposed on the buried pipelines by varying boundary conditions and calculate the probability of pipelines with von-Mises failure criterion. The effects of random variables such as pipe diameter, internal pressure, temperature, settlement width, load for unit length of pipelines, material yield stress and thickness of pipeline on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are also systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the pipeline crossing a ground subsidence region.

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SAFETY OF TRANSPORT SYSTEMS: MONITORING OF PREDICTING, FUNCTIONAL RELIABILITY PROVISION

  • Pavlovich, Khomenko Andrey;Viktorovich, Eliseev Sergey;Alekseevich, Djachenko Anatolij
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.1913-1919
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    • 2007
  • Substantive provisions of the concept of an estimation and safety of complex technical systems are envisaged. New problems are assume orientation to use of the formalized methods of an estimation of residual resources of reliability of objects, and also development of other methodological base in creation of complex technical systems that is connected with detailed elaboration of attention to a safety at all stages of creation of systems: from designing until operation. In this connection existing large objects should be provided by the developed systems of engineering monitoring and diagnostics.

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