Failure Prediction of the Generator Using a Combined Reliability Model of its Individual Components

발전기 구성요소의 신뢰도 모델 조합을 이용한 고장확률 예측

This paper presents a methodology to predict a failure probability related to the aging generating units in Korea power system. Each generator is represented by a combined reliability model of its individual components, which is determined by failure data. The Weibull distribution is used to calculate failure probability and its parameters are obtained from Type II Censoring. Consequently, the proposed methods would likely to permit utilities to reduce overall costs in the new deregulated environment.