• 신재생에너지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.47-54
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• 2014

Recently, BESS is considered as one of essential countermeasure for demand side management. However, an economic evaluation is critical issue for the introduction of power system because the cost of BESS is very high in present stage. Therefor, this paper presents economic evaluation method for customer use case by considering peak shaving function based on the real time price. From the case study on the model power system and educational customer, it is confirmed that the proposed method is a practical tool for the economic analysis of BESS. and analytical approach for the reliability assessment in radially operated distribution systems. The approach can estimate the expected reliability performance of distribution systems by a direct assessment of the configuration of the systems using the reliability indexes such as NDP (Non-Delivery Power) and NDE (Non-Delivery Energy). The indexes can only consider the number and configuration of the load, but can not consider the characteristics of the load which is the one of the most important factor in the investment cost for the distribution systems. Therefore, this paper presents the new performance indexes for the investment of the distribution facilities considering both the expected interruption cost for the load section and the operation characteristics of Energy Storage System. The results from a case study show that the proposed methods can be a practical tool for the reliability management in distribution systems including Energy Storage System.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.1-16
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• 2002

In reliability engineering, the bathtub-shaped hazard rates play an important role in survival analysis and many other applications as well. For the bathtub-shaped, initially the hazard rate decreases from a relatively high value due to manufacturing defects or infant mortality to a relatively stable middle useful life value and then slowly increases with the onset of old age or wear out. In this paper, we present a new two-parameter lifetime distribution function, called the Loglog distribution, with Vtub-shaped hazard rate function. We illustrate the usefulness of the new Vtub-shaped hazard rate function by evaluating the reliability of several helicopter parts based on the data obtained in the maintenance malfunction information reporting system database collected from October 1995 to September 1999. We develop the S-Plus add-in software tool, called Reliability and Safety Assessment (RSA), to calculate reliability measures include mean time to failure, mean residual function, and confidence Intervals of the two helicopter critical parts. We use the mean squared error to compare relative goodness of fit test of the distribution models include normal, lognormal, and Weibull within the two data sets. This research indicates that the result of the new Vtub-shaped hazard rate function is worth the extra function-complexity for a better relative fit. More application in broader validation of this conclusion is needed using other data sets for reliability modeling in a general industrial setting.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제40권6호
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• pp.495-502
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• 2007

상수관망에서 다양한 제수밸브 분포간의 우열성 평가는 상수관망의 신뢰성 확보를 위해 필수적이다. 기존 상수관망에 새로운 제수밸브를 추가할 경우나 새로운 상수관망을 건설할 경우, 본 연구에서는 서로 다른 제수밸브 분포간의 우열성을 평가하여 좀 더 효율적인 제수밸브 분포를 선택할 수 있는 방법을 제안하고자 한다. 제안된 방법은 상수관 및 제수밸브의 파괴 모의를 바탕으로 하며 제수밸브 분포간의 우열성은 상수관망의 신뢰도를 기준으로 하였다. 상수관망의 신뢰도는 상수관 파괴당 평균적인 단수인구로 나타내지며 충분한 횟수의 상수관 및 제수밸브 파괴모의를 통해서 산정하였다. 제안된 방법의 적용성을 평가하기 위하여 실제 상수관망을 대상으로 새로운 제수밸브를 추가할 경우 두가지 다른 밸브분포를 결정한 후 우열성을 판별하였다. 또한 다양한 제수밸브 신뢰도에 따른 관파괴당 평균단수인구를 산정하여 제수밸브 신뢰도가 상수관망의 신뢰도 향상에 미치는 영향을 검증하였다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.3-11
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• 1981

동일한 부품 K개를 갖고 있으며, 그 중에서 S개 이상의 스트렝스(strength)가 스트레스(stress) 보다 크게 될 경우 신뢰성이 유지되는 시스템에서 스트레스와 스트렝스가 모두 와이블(weibull) 분포를 하고 있을 때의 시스템 신뢰성을 고찰하였다. 2 절에서는 시스템 신뢰성의 최소분산불편추정량(MVU estimator)을 구하였고, 3 절에서는 최소분산불편추정량의 점근분포(asymototic distribution)를 구하고 표본크기가 클때 시스템 신뢰성의 최소분산불편추정량과 최우추정량(MLE)과의 관계를 구하였으며, 4 절에서는 시스템 신뢰성의 일양최적불편신뢰구간(uniformly most accurate unbiased confidence interval) 을 구하였고, 5 절에서는 몬데 카를로 씨뮤레이션(Monte Carlo Simulation)을 사용하여 작은 표본에서의 최우추정량과 최소분산불편추정량의 편기(bias)와 평균자승오차(MSE)를 비교하였고 6 절에서는 결과를 간단히 요약하고 본 논문을 더 확장할 경우에 문제점을 제시하였다.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.115-123
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• 2021

Through machine learning-based load prediction, it is possible to prevent excessive power generation or unnecessary economic investment by estimating the appropriate amount of facility investment in consideration of the load that will increase in the future or providing basic data for policy establishment to distribute the maximum load. However, in order to secure the reliability of the developed load prediction model in the field, the performance comparison verification between the distribution line load prediction models must be preceded, but a comparative performance verification system between the distribution line load prediction models has not yet been established. As a result, it is not possible to accurately determine the performance excellence of the load prediction model because it is not possible to easily determine the likelihood between the load prediction models. In this paper, we developed a reliability verification system for load prediction models including a method of comparing and verifying the performance reliability between machine learning-based load prediction models that were not previously considered, verification process, and verification result visualization methods. Through the developed load prediction model reliability verification system, the objectivity of the load prediction model performance verification can be improved, and the field application utilization of an excellent load prediction model can be increased.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제23권11호
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• pp.76-83
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• 2009

In today's competitive power market, electric power utilities have strived to provide energy at an acceptable level of quality due to increased expectations from customers. For this reason, electric power utilities have invested in electric equipment and new techniques. That is the Distribution Automation System (DAS). A merit of DAS is the ability to reduce outage time because of fast service restoration. However, DAS is usually installed in outdoor environments. Therefore, their efficiency is affected by the external conditions. Lightning creates varying degrees of physical stress on DAS. This paper focuses on the reliability of DAS for lightning. Four application studies were performed to compare the reliability indices.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제58권7호
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• pp.1281-1286
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• 2009

As a general radial configuration of power distribution system, the various researches have being studied to change a radial configuration to network one such as smart, intelligent and micro grid for loop operation. If a radial configuration changes to network, protective coordination comes to the biggest problem. When a typical protective algorithm is applied to loop distribution system protection, the interrupted section is expanded, therefore, reliability grows worse. This paper presents the new protective method being able to apply to loop distribution system with Distribution Automation System (DAS) which separate the minimal faulted section. Through contingency analysis of the sustained and momentary fault, we analyzed the influence for radial configuration and loop configuration using interrupted area and proved the effectiveness of proposed method.

• 한국강구조학회 논문집
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.365-373
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• 2002

이 논문에서는 교량의 수명을 예측하기 위한 시스템 신뢰성 이론이 설명되고, 생애 분포 함수를 이용하여 현존하는 교량의 잔존 수명을 예측하는 방법이 설명된다. 시스템 이론과 생애함수 (survivor functions) 를 이용하여 LIFETIME 이라는 프로그램을 개발하였다. Survivor functions은 주어진 시간 t에 대해 신뢰성을 산출한다. 이 프로그램을 이용하여 콜로라도주에 있는 교량의 수명을 예측하였다. 이 교량은 직렬과 병렬로 구성된 시스템으로 컴퓨터 모델링 되었으며 이 모델을 이용하여 시스템 파괴 확률을 시간에 대해 계산하였다.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2006년도 제37회 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.95-96
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• 2006

As the power industry moves towards open competition, there has been a call for methodology to evaluate distribution power system reliability by using customer interruption costs. Accordingly, it is increased for methodology to evaluate distribution power system reliability in power supply zones under competitive electricity market. This paper presents algorithm to evaluate system average interruption duration index. expected energy not supplied and system outage cost taking Into consideration failure rate of distribution facility and industrial customer interruption cost. Also, to apply this algorithm to evaluate system outage cost presented in this paper, distribution system of a dual supply system consisting of mostly high voltage customers in industrial complex in Korea is used as a sample case study. Finally, evaluation results of system interruption cost, system average interruption duration index and expected energy not supplied in sample industrial complex area are shown in detail.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.100-102
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• 2003

This paper describes a time-sequential simulation technique for the reliability evaluation of a distribution system including Photovoltaics(PV) Generation. A three-state model of a PV is presented, considering variable radiation and the forced outage rate. A test distribution system is utilized to illustrate the proposed model. The effects on the distribution system reliability of the PV parameters are examined and illustrated.