• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.289-302
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• 2017

The key risk analysis technologies for the re-entry of space objects into Earth's atmosphere are divided into four categories: cataloguing and databases of the re-entry of space objects, lifetime and re-entry trajectory predictions, break-up models after re-entry and multiple debris distribution predictions, and ground impact probability models. In this study, we focused on reentry prediction, including orbital lifetime assessments, for space situational awareness systems. Re-entry predictions are very difficult and are affected by various sources of uncertainty. In particular, during uncontrolled re-entry, large spacecraft may break into several pieces of debris, and the surviving fragments can be a significant hazard for persons and properties on the ground. In recent years, specific methods and procedures have been developed to provide clear information for predicting and analyzing the re-entry of space objects and for ground-risk assessments. Representative tools include object reentry survival analysis tool (ORSAT) and debris assessment software (DAS) developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), spacecraft atmospheric re-entry and aerothermal break-up (SCARAB) and debris risk assessment and mitigation analysis (DRAMA) developed by European Space Agency (ESA), and semi-analytic tool for end of life analysis (STELA) developed by Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES). In this study, various surveys of existing re-entry space objects are reviewed, and an efficient re-entry prediction technique is suggested based on STELA, the life-cycle analysis tool for satellites, and DRAMA, a re-entry analysis tool. To verify the proposed method, the re-entry of the Tiangong-1 Space Lab, which is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere shortly, was simulated. Eventually, these results will provide a basis for space situational awareness risk analyses of the re-entry of space objects.

• Journal of Space Technology and Applications
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.23-32
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• 2021

The high-level Space Situational Awareness (SSA) objective is to provide to the users dependable, accurate and timely information in order to support risk management on orbit and during re-entry and support safe and secure operation of space assets and related services. Therefore the risk assessment for the re-entry of space objects should be managed nationally. In this research, the Software for Re-Entry Prediction of space objects (SREP) was developed for national SSA system. In particular, the rate of change of the drag coefficient is estimated through a newly proposed Drag Scale Factor Estimation (DSFE), and is used for high-precision orbit propagator (HPOP) up to an altitude of 100 km to predict the re-entry time and position of the space object. The effectiveness of this re-entry prediction is shown through the re-entry time window and ground track of space objects falling in real events, Grace-1, Grace-2, Tiangong-1, and Chang Zheng-5B Rocket body. As a result, through analysis 12 hours before the final re-entry time, it is shown that the re-entry time window and crash time can be accurately predicted with an error of less than 20 minutes.

• Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.142-149
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• 2013

As we, human expand its everyday life boundary to the geosynchronous orbit, we have experienced frequent chance of the atmospheric re-entry and surface impact of space objects(satellite and space debris). Recently a satellite re-entry monitoring room in Korea has been operated to predict the time and the location of the re-entry of space objects. However, we do not have a domestic version of a numerical re-entry model for normal operation using TLE (Two line Element) information from the United States Strategic Command yet. The space information from the several space operation centers has been used to analyse the re-entry situations. In this paper, the re-entry time is calculated with TLE based on the several atmosphere models, the result is comprehensively analyzed, a new re-entry case model fitted from the result of the predicted satellite re-entry times by a new Rubber Sheet Shift Method used by the domestic satellite re-entry room is suggested.

• Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.150-158
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• 2013

In Korea, the official monitoring of the atmospheric re-entry of satellites or space debris was initiated by the first operation of a re-entry situation analysis team for the 'Cosmos 1402' of the Soviet Union, which main body re-entered on January 23, 1983 and radio active core re-entered on February 7, 1983. After this incident, a task force team consisting Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI), Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) and other related institutes operated a situation monitoring group under the supervision of the Ministry of Science and technology (MOST) for the controlled re-entry of the Russian 'Mir' space station in 2001. The re-entry of the upper atmospheric weather satellite 'UARS' of United States had been monitored and analyzed by KASI on September 24, 2011. As the re-entry of the space object has been frequently occurred, the government officials and the experts from MEST (Ministry of Education, Science and Technology), KASI, KARI had an urgent official meeting to establish a satellite re-entry monitoring room in KASI and to give an operational authority to KASI in September 14, 2011. Under this decision, the satellite re-entry monitoring room in KASI has successfully executed the monitoring, data analyzing, official reporting, media contacting, and public announcing for the German satellite 'Roentgen' in October 2011, Russian space explorer 'Phobos-Grunt' in January 2012, Russian satellite 'Cosmos 1484' in January 2013, and European geodetic satellite 'GOCE' in November 2013 with the support from the Korean Air Force and KARI.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.363-374
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• 2012

This paper studies the problem of tracking a re-entry vehicle (RV) in order to predict its impact point on the ground. Re-entry target dynamics combined with super-high speed has a complex non-linearity due to ballistic coefficient variations. However, it is difficult to construct a database for the ballistic coefficient of a unknown vehicle for a wide range of variations, thus the reliability of target tracking performance cannot be guaranteed if accurate ballistic coefficient estimation is not achieved. Various techniques for ballistic coefficient estimation have been previously proposed, but limitations exist for the estimation of non-linear parts accurately without obtaining prior information. In this paper we propose the ballistic coefficient ${\beta}$ model-based interacting multiple model-extended Kalman filter (${\beta}$-IMM-EKF) for precise tracking of an RV. To evaluate the performance, other ballistic coefficient model based filters, which are gamma augmented filter, gamma bootstrapped filter were compared and assessed with the proposed ${\beta}$-IMM-EKF for precise tracking of an RV.

• Journal of electromagnetic engineering and science
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.231-241
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• 2018

In this paper, we consider the anti-attack procedure of a ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) at different operating frequencies at its phased-array radar station. The interception performance is measured in terms of lateral divert (LD), which denotes the minimum acceleration amount available in an interceptor to compensate for prediction error for a successful intercept. Dependence of the frequency on estimation accuracy that leads directly to prediction error is taken into account, in terms of angular measurement noises. The estimation extraction is performed by means of an extended Kalman filter (EKF), considering two typical re-entry trajectories of a non-maneuvering ballistic missile (BM). The simulation results show better performance at higher frequency for both tracking and intercepting aspects.

• Journal of Space Technology and Applications
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.149-159
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• 2021

This paper represents a reentry time prediction analysis of CZ-5B rocket-body in China, subject to analysis of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee Reentry (IADC) reentry test campaign conducted in May 2021. Predicting the reentry of space objects is difficult to accurately predict due to the lack of accurate physical information about target, and uncertainty in atmospheric density. Therefore, IADC conducts annual re-entry campaigns to verify analysis techniques by each agency, and the Korea Aerospace Research Institute has also participated in them since 2015. Ballistic coefficient estimation method proposed to predict target reentry time and the result confirmed the difference of 73 seconds, which confirms the accuracy of the proposed method.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.214-224
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• 2018

Continuous space development increases the occurrence probability of space hazards such as collapse of a satellite and collision between a satellite and space debris. In Korea, a space surveillance network with optical system has been developed; however, the radar technology for an independent space surveillance needs to be secured. Herein, an L-band phased array radar system for the detection and tracking of space objects is proposed to provide a number of services including collision avoidance and the prediction of re-entry events. With the mission analysis of space surveillance and the case analysis of foreign advanced radar systems, the radar parameters are defined and designed. The proposed radar system is able to detect a debris having a diameter of 10 cm at a maximum distance of 1,576 km. In addition, we confirmed the possibility of using the space surveillance mission for domestic satellites through the analysis of the detection area.