• 제목/요약/키워드: quantitative risk analysis

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Microbial Modeling in Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) System: A Review

  • Min, Sea-Cheol;Choi, Young-Jin
    • Food Science and Biotechnology
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.279-293
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    • 2009
  • Quantitative risk assessments are related to implementing hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) by its potential involvement in identifying critical control points (CCPs), validating critical limits at a CCP, enabling rational designs of new processes, and products to meet required level of safety, and evaluating processing operations for verification procedures. The quantitative risk assessment is becoming a standard research tool which provides useful predictions and analyses on microbial risks and, thus, a valuable aid in implementing a HACCP system. This paper provides a review of microbial modeling in quantitative risk assessments, which can be applied to HACCP systems.

터널 건설 프로젝트 리스크 분석 및 리스크 정량화 모델 개발에 관한 연구 (Risk Factors Analysis and Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Tunnel Construction Project)

  • 정승아;안성진
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2023년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.363-364
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    • 2023
  • The tunnel construction projects is demanded more efficient risk management measures and loss forecasts to prepare for risk losses from an increase in the trend of tunnel construction. This study aims to analyze the risk factors that caused the loss of material in actual tunnel construction and to develop a quantified predictive loss model, based on the past loss record of tunnel construction projects.

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초도양산 군수품에 대한 정량적 위험등급평가 방안 연구 (A study on the quantitative risk grade assessment of initial mass production for weapon systems)

  • 정영탁;함영훈;노태주;안만기;고경와
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제46권3호
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    • pp.441-452
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study quantitative risk grade assessment for objective government quality assurance activities based on risk management in initial mass production for weapon systems. Methods: The Defense quality management regulations and foreign risk assessment documents are referred to analyze problems performing quality assurance actives. The failure rate data, maintainability and cost of products have been studied to quantify the risk Likelihood and impact. The analyzed data were classified as risk grade assessment through K-means Cluster Analysis method. Results: Results show that a proposed method can objectively evaluate risk grade. The analyzed results are clustered into three levels such as high, middle and low. Two products are allocated high, eleven low and seven middle. Conclusion: In this paper, quantitative risk grade assessment methods were presented by analyzing risk ratings based on objective data. The findings showed that the methods would be effective for initial mass production for weapon systems.

위험분석 모델을 적용한 정량적인 소프트웨어 위험관리 방법론에 관한 연구 (A Study on Quantitative Software Risk Management Methodology applied Risk Analysis Model)

  • 엄정호;이동영;정태명
    • 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2009
  • In the paper, we proposed the systematical and quantitative software risk management methodology based on risk analysis model. A software risk management consists of the basic risk management method(BRIMM) and the detailed risk management method(DRIMM). BRIMM is applied to unimportant phases or the phase which also the risk factor does not heavily influence to project. DRIMM is used from the phase which influences highly in project success or the phase where the risk factor is many. Fulfilling risk management combined two methods, we can reduce project's budget, term and resource's usage, and prevent risk with the optimum measures obtained by the exact risk analysis.

LPG 충전시설에 대한 신뢰도 분석과 정량적 위험성 분석에 관한 연구 (A Study on Reliability Analysis and Quantitative Risk Analysis for Liquefied Petroleum Gas Station)

  • 김인원;진상화;김태우;김인태;여영구
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제5권4호
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    • pp.40-48
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    • 2001
  • 본 연구에서는 LPG 충전소에 대하여 Fussel-Vesely 중요도와 RDF 및 RIF 중요도를 수행하여 위험성 등급(Risk Rank)을 설정하였다 설정된 위험성 등급에서 위험성이 가장 큰 장치 및 설비에 대하여 정량적 위험성 분석을 수행하였다. LPG 충전소에 대한 중요도 분석결과 외부사고가 가장 위험하다고 확인되었으며, ekda 으로 구조물 결함과 파이프 배관의 부식의 위험등급이 높았다. 정량적 위험성 분석 결과로는 LPG 충전소 저장탱크의 완전히 파열하였을 경우에 대한 BLEVE의 경가 발생하였을 경우에 복사열에 의해 공정 설비에 손해를 입히기에 충분한 거리는 46.3m로 분석되었다.

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열차제어시스템 안전성 확보를 위한 리스크 평가 방법 분석 (Risk Assessment Method for Guaranteeing Safety in the Train Control System)

  • 조현정;황종규;윤용기
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.870-877
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    • 2006
  • Recently, failures of equipments are linked directly to extensive damages of human lives or financial losses from the increasing uses of train control equipments utilizing computers. Then safety activities have to progress for guaranteeing safety during the system life-cycle. In this paper, we examine the methods for risk analysis and assessment of safety activities and propose optimized one method for risk assessment. There are original risk assessment methods; risk graph and risk matrix method under the qualitative analysis, IRF(Individual Risk Formula) calculations and statistical calculations method under the quantitative analysis. Best-Practice(BP) risk analysis method is proposed for combining advantages of the qualitative and the quantitative analysis. In the comparison of risk graph and risk matrix method for safety estimation, BP method has no applications published up to now, but we can expect that this method will be utilized widely for the risk assessment due to various strong points.

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GIS기반 산사태재해의 정량적 피해 산정을 위한 고려사항 분석 (Considerations for Quantitative Risk Assessment of Landslides using GIS)

  • 김정옥;김지영;김효중;김용일
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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    • pp.645-648
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    • 2008
  • This study provides considerations for quantitative risk assessment of landslide on GIS technology. It shows how the landslide possibility analysis is linked by GIS modeling to provide loss estimation tools for landslide hazards in support of socio-economic loss reduction efforts. Those risk assessment results can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy making for the landslide damage mitigation.

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An Evaluation of the Quantitative Risk of Plastic Process Manufacturing Industries by Means of the 4M Method

  • Lee, Dong-Ho;Kim, Jong-In
    • International Journal of Safety
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.8-12
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    • 2007
  • This study includes a case study among plastic process manufacturing companies, based on which, the currently used 4M method is applied in terms of machine, media, man, and management, to conduct quantitative risk evaluation, and thus to contribute to reducing human and material loss as well as preventing accidents in industrial fields. The result of this study is analyzed based on the 4M-risk assessment to find out the hazardous risk elements, and the quantitative evaluation made it predictable the value of risk(frequency $\times$ intensity) in such classified levels as serious risk, critical risk, and intolerable risk. Further, Among the businesses with hazardous risk elements and high frequency of industrial disaster, risk analysis was conducted for each process, and as a result, 38 cases among 76, including those of serious risk, critical risk, and intolerable risk, were improved, and the risk was reduced. Besides, it is thought that with the engineering approach with 4M-Risk Assessment, the attempt to improve safety level contributes to prevention of accidents.

정량적 위험성 평가에 의한 안전관리 투자의 비용-편익분석 (Cost-Benefit Analysis for Safety Management Cost using Quantitative Risk Analysis)

  • 장서일;조지훈;김태옥
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제4권4호
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2002
  • The quantitative evaluation method of the safety management cost was suggested to prevent a gas accident as a major industrial accident. In a gas governor station, process risk assessments such as the fault tree analysis(FTA) and the consequence analysis were performed. Based on process risk assessments, potential accident costs were estimated and the cost-benefit analysis(CBA) was performed. From the cost-benefit analysis for five classification items of safety management cost, the order of the cost/benefit ratio was estimated.

A rolling analysis on the prediction of value at risk with multivariate GARCH and copula

  • Bai, Yang;Dang, Yibo;Park, Cheolwoo;Lee, Taewook
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제25권6호
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    • pp.605-618
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    • 2018
  • Risk management has been a crucial part of the daily operations of the financial industry over the past two decades. Value at Risk (VaR), a quantitative measure introduced by JP Morgan in 1995, is the most popular and simplest quantitative measure of risk. VaR has been widely applied to the risk evaluation over all types of financial activities, including portfolio management and asset allocation. This paper uses the implementations of multivariate GARCH models and copula methods to illustrate the performance of a one-day-ahead VaR prediction modeling process for high-dimensional portfolios. Many factors, such as the interaction among included assets, are included in the modeling process. Additionally, empirical data analyses and backtesting results are demonstrated through a rolling analysis, which help capture the instability of parameter estimates. We find that our way of modeling is relatively robust and flexible.