• Title/Summary/Keyword: probable precipitation

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Stability of a Natural Slope in Sedimentary Rocks (퇴적암 지역의 자연사면 안정성)

  • 권오일;김교원;박덕근
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.205-216
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    • 2000
  • An unstable natural slope located at Icheon-Ri, Dasa-Eup, Dalseong-Kun which has been severely cracked during heavy rain fall in September, 1998, was investigated and analysed for remedial measures. Various geological data were obtained by performing a surface geological survey, a ground penetrating radar(GPR) exploration, four geotechnical borings with field and laboratory tests, and the precipitation records were also reviewed. Based on the these data, the probable sliding plane was determined as a bedding plane with dip angle of 20 to 25 degrees between sandstone and shale layers at depth of 6 to 8 meters. By performing back analyses with the limit equilibrium method, the friction angle and cohesion of the sliding plane were determined as 18$^{\circ}$ and 0, respectively. Based on these results, a series of stability analyses such as stereo-graphic projection method, limiting equilibrium method and numerical method were carried out. The remedial measures for the unstable slope were selected based on the results of the limit equilibrium analyses by considering various conditions expected at the site. Ground grouting or anchoring method with proper surface drainage systems could be employed for the long term safety of the slope.

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SIMULATION OF REGIONAL DAILY FLOW AT UNGAGED SITES USING INTEGRATED GIS-SPATIAL INTERPOLATION (GIS-SI) TECHNIQUE

  • Lee, Ju-Young;Krishinamursh, Ganeshi
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2005
  • The Brazos River is one of the longest rivers contained entirely in the state of Texas, flowing over 700 miles from northwest Texas to the Gulf of Mexico. Today, the Brazos River Authority and Texas Commission on Environmental Quality interest in drought protection plan, waterpower project, and allowing the appropriation of water system-wide and water right within the Brazos River Basin to meet water needs of customers like farmers and local civilians in the future. Especially, this purpose of this paper primarily intended to provide the data for the engineering guidelines and make easily geological mapping tool. In the Brazos River basin, many stream-flow gage station sites are not working, and they can not provide stream-flow data sets enough for development of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) for use in the evaluation of proposed and existing dams and other impounding structures. Integrated GIS-Spatial Interpolation (GIS-SI) tool are composed of two parts; (1) extended GIS technique (new making interface for hydrological regionalization parameters plus classical GIS mapping skills), (2) Spatial Interpolation technique using weighting factors from kriging method. They are obtained from the relationship among location and elevation of geological watershed and existing stream-flow datasets. GIS-SI technique is easily used to compute parameters which get drainage areas, mean daily/monthly/annual precipitation, and weighted values. Also, they are independent variables of multiple linear regressions for simulation at un gaged stream-flow sites. In this study, GIS-SI technique is applied to the Brazos river basin in Texas. By assuming the ungaged flow at the sites of Palo Pinto, Bryan and Needville, the simulated daily/monthly/annual time series are compared with observed time series. The simulated daily/monthly/annual time series are highly correlated with and well fitted to the observed times series.

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Modeling the potential climate change-induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus (Acari: Ixodidae) tick distribution in semi-arid areas of Raya Azebo district, Northern Ethiopia

  • Hadgu, Meseret;Menghistu, Habtamu Taddele;Girma, Atkilt;Abrha, Haftu;Hagos, Haftom
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.427-437
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    • 2019
  • Background: Climate change is believed to be continuously affecting ticks by influencing their habitat suitability. However, we attempted to model the climate change-induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus distribution considering the major environmental factors that would influence the tick. Therefore, 50 tick occuance points were taken to model the potential distribution using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) software and 19 climatic variables, taking into account the ability for future climatic change under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, were used. Results: MaxEnt model performance was tested and found with the AUC value of 0.99 which indicates excellent goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy. Current models predict increased temperatures, both in the mid and end terms together with possible changes of other climatic factors like precipitation which may lead to higher tick-borne disease risks associated with expansion of the range of the targeted tick distribution. Distribution maps were constructed for the current, 2050, and 2070 for the two greenhouse gas scenarios and the most dramatic scenario; RCP 8.5 produced the highest increase probable distribution range. Conclusions: The future potential distribution of the genus Rhipicephalus show potential expansion to the new areas due to the future climatic suitability increase. These results indicate that the genus population of the targeted tick could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking; increased incidence of tick-borne diseases poses further risk which can affect cattle production and productivity, thereby affecting the livelihood of smallholding farmers. Therefore, it is recommended to implement climate change adaptation practices to minimize the impacts.

Calculation of future rainfall scenarios to consider the impact of climate change in Seoul City's hydraulic facility design standards (서울시 수리시설 설계기준의 기후변화 영향 고려를 위한 미래강우시나리오 산정)

  • Yoon, Sun-Kwon;Lee, Taesam;Seong, Kiyoung;Ahn, Yujin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.419-431
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    • 2021
  • In Seoul, it has been confirmed that the duration of rainfall is shortened and the frequency and intensity of heavy rains are increasing with a changing climate. In addition, due to high population density and urbanization in most areas, floods frequently occur in flood-prone areas for the increase in impermeable areas. Furthermore, the Seoul City is pursuing various projects such as structural and non-structural measures to resolve flood-prone areas. A disaster prevention performance target was set in consideration of the climate change impact of future precipitation, and this study conducted to reduce the overall flood damage in Seoul for the long-term. In this study, 29 GCMs with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used for spatial and temporal disaggregation, and we also considered for 3 research periods, which is short-term (2006-2040, P1), mid-term (2041-2070, P2), and long-term (2071-2100, P3), respectively. For spatial downscaling, daily data of GCM was processed through Quantile Mapping based on the rainfall of the Seoul station managed by the Korea Meteorological Administration and for temporal downscaling, daily data were downscaled to hourly data through k-nearest neighbor resampling and nonparametric temporal detailing techniques using genetic algorithms. Through temporal downscaling, 100 detailed scenarios were calculated for each GCM scenario, and the IDF curve was calculated based on a total of 2,900 detailed scenarios, and by averaging this, the change in the future extreme rainfall was calculated. As a result, it was confirmed that the probability of rainfall for a duration of 100 years and a duration of 1 hour increased by 8 to 16% in the RCP4.5 scenario, and increased by 7 to 26% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the results of this study, the amount of rainfall designed to prepare for future climate change in Seoul was estimated and if can be used to establish purpose-wise water related disaster prevention policies.

Two-dimensional Inundation Analysis Using Stochastic Rainfall Variation and Geographic Information System (추계학적 강우변동생성 기법과 GIS를 연계한 2차원 침수해석)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Cho, Wan-Hee;Han, Kun-Yeun;Ahn, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 2010
  • Recently actual rainfall pattern is decreasing rainy days and increasing in rainfall intensity and the frequency of flood occurrence is also increased. To consider recent situation, Engineers use deterministic methods like a PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation). If design storm wouldn't occur, increasing of design criteria is extravagant. In addition, the biggest structure cause trouble with residents and environmental problem. And then it is necessary to study considering probability of rainfall parameter in each sub-basin for design of water structure. In this study, stochastic rainfall patterns are generated by using log-ratio method, Johnson system and multivariate Monte Carlo simulation. Using the stochastic rainfall patterns, hydrological analysis, hydraulic analysis and 2nd flooding analysis were performed based on GIS for their applicability. The results of simulations are similar to the actual damage area so the methodology of this study should be used about making a flood risk map or regidental shunting rout map against the region.

Probable Volcanic Flood of the Cheonji Caldera Lake Triggered by Volcanic Eruption of Mt. Baekdusan (백두산 화산분화로 인해 천지에서 발생 가능한 화산홍수)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha;Kim, Sung-Wook;Yoo, Soon-Young;Kim, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.492-506
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    • 2013
  • The historical accounts and materials about the eruption of Mt. Baekdusan as observed by the geological survey is now showing some signs of waking from a long slumber. As a response of the volcanic eruption of Mt. Baekdusan, water release may occur from the stored water in Lake Cheonjii caldera. The volcanic flood is crucial in that it has huge potential energy that can destruct all kinds of man-made structures and that its velocity can reach up to 100 km $hr^{-1}$ to cover hundreds of kilometers of downstream of Lake Cheonji. The ultimate goal of the study is to estimate the level of damage caused by the volcanic flood of Lake Cheon-Ji caldera. As a preliminary study a scenario-based numerical analysis is performed to build hydrographs as a function of time. The analysis is performed for each scenario (breach, magma uplift, combination of uplift and breach, formation of precipitation etc.) and the parameters to require a model structure is chosen on the basis of the historic records of other volcanos. This study only considers the amount of water at the rim site as a function of time for the estimation whereas the downstream routing process is not considered in this study.

Reactive transport modeling of the $CO_2-H_2O$-cement reaction in a $CO_2$ injection well for $CO_2$ geological storage ($CO_2$ 지중저장 주입정에서의 $CO_2-H_2O$-시멘트 반응 운송 모델링)

  • Jo, Min-Ki;Chae, Gi-Tak;Choi, Byoung-Young;Yu, Soon-Young;Kim, Tae-Hee;Kim, Jeong-Chan
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.359-370
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    • 2010
  • $CO_2$ leakage from a geological formation utilized for $CO_2$ storage could result in failure of the facility and threaten the environment, as well as human safety and health. A reactive transport model of a $CO_2-H_2O$-cement reaction was constructed to understand chemical changes in the case of $CO_2$ leakage through a cement crack in an injection well, which is the most probable leakage pathway during geological storage. The model results showed the dissolution of portlandite and CSH (calcium silicate hydrate) within the cement paste, and the precipitation of secondary CSH and calcite as the $CO_2$ plume migrated along the crack. Calcite occupied most of the crack after 3 year of reaction, which could be maintained until 30 years after crack development. The present results could be applied in the development of technology to prevent $CO_2$ leakage and to enhance the integrity of wells constructed for $CO_2$ geological storage.

Development of flood inundation area GIS database for Samsung-1 drainage sector, Seoul, Korea (서울 삼성 1분구에 대한 침수면적 GIS 데이터베이스 구축)

  • Oh, Minkwan;Lee, Dongryul;Kwon, Hyunhan;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.12
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    • pp.981-993
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    • 2016
  • This study explains the GIS database of flood inundation area developed for Samsung-1 Drainage Sector, Seoul, Korea. The XP-SWMM dual drainage model was developed for the study area, and the time series observed at the watershed outlet was used to obtain the watershed time of concentration and to calibrate the XP-SWMM model. The rainfall scenario was developed by dividing the 40 minute watershed time of concentration into two 20-minute time steps and then applying the gradually increasing 5 mm/hr interval rainfall intensity to each of the time step up to 200 mm/hr, which is the probable maximum precipitation of the study area. The developed rainfall scenarios was used as the input of the XP-SWMM model to obtain the database of the flood inundation area. The analysis on the developed GIS database revealed that: (1) For the same increment of the rainfall, the increase of the flooded area can be different, and this was caused by topographic characteristics and spatial formation of pipe network of the study area; (2) For the same flooded area, the spatial extent can be significantly different depending on the temporal distribution of rainfall; and (3) For the same amount of the design rainfall, the flood inundation area and the extent can be significantly different depending on the temporal distribution of rainfall.

Water Quality and Chlorophyll-a at the Birth Stage of a Large Reclaimed Estuarine Lake in Korea (Lake Hwaong) (간척하구호 (화옹호) 태동기의 수질과 엽록소-a 변화)

  • Kim, Ho-Sub;Chung, Mi-Hee;Choi, Chung-Il;Hwang, Soon-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.36 no.4 s.105
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    • pp.455-462
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    • 2003
  • This study evaluated the change of water quality and chlorophyll - a at the birth stage of a large reclaimed estuarine lake (Lake Hwaong) of which the dike was finally constructed in March, 2002. Physico -chemical parameters and chlorophyll - a were investigated along a longitudinal transect, including 3 in-lake sites and 1 out-lake site from June to November, 2002. Salinity at all in-lake sites was over 21 psu during the study period, indicating that lake is still in the seawater phase. Salinity was periodically diluted at times when precipitation was high, especially in August. Chemocline was established in July near the dam site, and correspondingly vertical profile of dissolved oxygen was very clear during that Period. Total nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations at all lake sites were in the eutrophic range, and they were especially high at the stream inlet site. Nutrients concentration was not much varied vertically but significantly varied temporally, and correlated significantly with precipitation and chlorophyll-a concentration, indicating that inflowing water from the watershed seemed not to improve lake water by dilution but cause eutrophication of the lake, and thereby stimulate phytoplankton development. Based on the analyses of nutrient ratio (N/P) and trophic state deviation, both phosphorus and nitrogen appeared to limit phytoplankton growth in the lake. Phosphorus limitation appeared to be probable at all in-lake sites with being most severe at the stream inlet site. Nitrogen limitation seemed to occur at both in-lake and out-lake sites. These results indicate that in Lake Hwaong experiencing the very early stage of a reclaiming lake, water quality and phytoplankton development appear to be affect-ed largely by salinity and hydrology and nutrients from the inflowing water. Lake biogeochemistry is still very unstable, and thus further long-term study is necessary to understand the effects of seawater to freshwater conversion on lake biology and water chemistry.