• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability theory

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Influence of non-Gaussian characteristics of wind load on fatigue damage of wind turbine

  • Zhu, Ying;Shuang, Miao
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.217-227
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    • 2020
  • Based on translation models, both Gaussian and non-Gaussian wind fields are generated using spectral representation method for investigating the influence of non-Gaussian characteristics and directivity effect of wind load on fatigue damage of wind turbine. Using the blade aerodynamic model and multi-body dynamics, dynamic responses are calculated. Using linear damage accumulation theory and linear crack propagation theory, crack initiation life and crack propagation life are discussed with consideration of the joint probability density distribution of the wind direction and mean wind speed in detail. The result shows that non-Gaussian characteristics of wind load have less influence on fatigue life of wind turbine in the area with smaller annual mean wind speeds. Whereas, the influence becomes significant with the increase of the annual mean wind speed. When the annual mean wind speeds are 7 m/s and 9 m/s at hub height of 90 m, the crack initiation lives under softening non-Gaussian wind decrease by 10% compared with Gaussian wind fields or at higher hub height. The study indicates that the consideration of the influence of softening non-Gaussian characteristics of wind inflows can significantly decrease the fatigue life, and, if neglected, it can result in non-conservative fatigue life estimates for the areas with higher annual mean wind speeds.

Assessment of Possibility on the Human Risk for the Electromagnetic Field of Unbalanced Two Coupled Three-phase Transmission Line Using Fuzzy Theory (퍼지이론을 이용한 3상 2회선 불평형 송전선로에서의 전자계에 대한 인체 위험 가능성평가)

  • Kim, Sang-Chul;Kim, Doo-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.21 no.2 s.74
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    • pp.22-28
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents assessment of possibility on the human risk for the electromagnetic field of unbalanced two coupled three-phase transmission line using fuzzy theory. Three phase load flow program was developed which employed a Newton-Raphson method as a tool to analyze system unbalanced. This research presents a method of handling two coupled three phase transmission system unbalance analysis and unbalanced power demand as a function of voltages. As the results of case study, in case of 345[kV] T/L, the electric field intensity was 10.9540[kV/m], magnetic field intensity was 0.2567[G] in severest case. The results showed that the membership of a proposition fuzzy '10.9540 [kV/m] is hazardous' is 0.6349. As the analytic results using the fuzzy qualifier term, the membership in case of very false is 0.1379 and fairly false is 0.6124, respectively. In assessment of fuzzy measure possibility for the electromagnetic field, this paper used probability of fuzzy arid measure of fuzziness technique.

The Component based U-Learning System using Item Response Theory (문항반응이론을 이용한 컴포넌트 기반의 U-러닝 시스템)

  • Jeong, Hwa-Young
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.127-133
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    • 2007
  • The u-learning environment has been developed through a number of iterations, and has now been formally evaluated, through analysis of student learning results and the use of quantitative and qualitative measures, Generally, for advance learning effect and analysis of student learning results, the most learning system be use to the item analysis method. But, nowadays, it has using the IRT(Item Response Theory) instead of the item analysis method, The IRT adopts explicit models for the probability of each possible response to a test. Therefore, I proposed the lightweight component based u-learning system using the IRT. Applied device of u-learning is PDA which is in Windows mobile 5.0 environments.

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Structural Reliability of Thick FRP Plates subjected to Lateral Pressure Loads

  • Hankoo Jeong;R. Ajit Shenoi;Kim, Kisung
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.38-57
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    • 2000
  • This paper deals with reliability analysis of specially orthotropic plates subjected to transverse lateral pressure loads by using Monte Carlo simulation method. The plates are simply supported around their all edges and have a low short span to plate depth ratio with rectangular plate shapes. Various levels of reliability analyses of the plates are performed within the context of First-Ply-Failure(FPF) analysis such as ply-/laminate-level reliability analyse, failure tree analysis and sensitivity analysis of basic design variables to estimated plate reliabilities. In performing all these levels of reliability analyses, the followings are considered within the Monte Carlo simulation method: (1) input parameters to the strengths of the plates such as applied transverse lateral pressure loads, elastic moduli, geometric including plate thickness and ultimate strength values of the plates are treated as basic design variables following a normal probability distribution; (2) the mechanical responses of the plates are calculated by using simplified higher-order shear deformation theory which can predict the mechanical responses of thick laminated plates accurately; and (3) the limit state equations are derived from polynomial failure criteria for composite materials such as maximum stress, maximum strain, Tsai-Hill, Tsai-Wu and Hoffman.

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The Interpretation of Traditional Space Based on the Theory of Ontological Space (존재론적 장소개념에 의한 전통공간 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ok-Jae;Kim, Moon-Duck
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.94-102
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    • 2014
  • Nowadays when the social and cultural paradigm is changing, the incomplete space is becoming a matter of controversy. In order to figure out the solutions to it, are being held a variety of spatial discourses for spatial essence and meaning to be cleared. Accordingly, this study has tried to seek for any probability to interpret the ontology shown at any traditional space on the ground of Heidegger's Ontological Thinking Structure which has a considerable impact on Modern Space, whose conclusions are the followings. First, Heidegger's ontological space theory, which provided a foundation of Placeness concept, includes not only the character of interdisciplinary learning among philosophy, arts and any related studies but also that of mutual oriental and occidental cultures. Second, between the thoughts of Heidegger and Lao-tzu are considerable similarities from the methodical viewpoint that materializes the meaning of existence as an essence. Third, for a convenient interpretation, the ontological spatial concept of Lao-tzu's philosophy shown at traditional spaces have been categorized into Typology-Incident, Morphology-situation and Topology-meaning generation with Schultz's Existential Spatial Concept based on Heidegger's Ontology as a medium. In particular, the meaning generation which materializes the placeness has the trait of being clarified as the product of interactions between incidents and situations.

Multiperiod Mean Absolute Deviation Uncertain Portfolio Selection

  • Zhang, Peng
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.63-76
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    • 2016
  • Multiperiod portfolio selection problem attracts more and more attentions because it is in accordance with the practical investment decision-making problem. However, the existing literature on this field is almost undertaken by regarding security returns as random variables in the framework of probability theory. Different from these works, we assume that security returns are uncertain variables which may be given by the experts, and take absolute deviation as a risk measure in the framework of uncertainty theory. In this paper, a new multiperiod mean absolute deviation uncertain portfolio selection models is presented by taking transaction costs, borrowing constraints and threshold constraints into account, which an optimal investment policy can be generated to help investors not only achieve an optimal return, but also have a good risk control. Threshold constraints limit the amount of capital to be invested in each stock and prevent very small investments in any stock. Based on uncertain theories, the model is converted to a dynamic optimization problem. Because of the transaction costs, the model is a dynamic optimization problem with path dependence. To solve the new model in general cases, the forward dynamic programming method is presented. In addition, a numerical example is also presented to illustrate the modeling idea and the effectiveness of the designed algorithm.

Nuclear Structure Studies with Low Temperature Technique (I)

  • Young Koh;Park, Won-Seok;Park, Chang-Kyu;Shin, Hee-Sung;Song, Tae-Yung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1996.11b
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    • pp.669-674
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    • 1996
  • The theory of quantum mechanics states that for any system there are a set of discrete physical states, quantum states, which corresponds a particular energy level of the system. The lowest energy the system can have, corresponding to its ground state, is not necessarily zero, but depends only on the precise microscopic nature of the system under consideration. At the absolute zero of temperature all systems will be in their lowest energy state (zero point energy) and as the system is warmed from OK, the higher energy states become occupied. The probability of occupancy of the excited states relative to that of the ground state is proportional to the absolute temperature. Therefore we can obtain nuclear dipole and quadrupole moment very accurately at ultra low temperature (<15mk) by NMR and from the destruction of anisotropy. The former is called LTNO/NMR and the latter is called LTNO (Low Temperature Nuclear Orientation). In this paper we discuss and introduce only an experimental apparatus with results of cooling power test, a helium dilution refrigerator, which can reache 8mK, and an actual technique for the experiment, a theory and results will be presented in another papers.

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Capital Structure and Its Determinants: Evidence from Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Tan Gia;NGUYEN, Lan;NGUYEN, Tuan Duc
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.10
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2021
  • This paper attempts to investigate the determinants of capital structure of Vietnamese firms and also shed light on some of the factors of the modern theory of capital structure which is relevant for explaining the capital structure in advanced countries which are also relevant in the context of Vietnam. Using panel data from more than 1000 Vietnamese listed enterprises census 2017-2020, the paper finds that leverage ratio of Vietnamese firms is significantly related to probability. The firms have high level of fixed assets which they use as collateral, resulting in higher debt ratio, which is in line with the pecking order theory. The result also confirm that highly targeted debt ratio is positively correlated with the industry characteristics (using real estate firms as a benchmark), in which firm operates. Furthermore, consistent with the trade-off hypothesis, the leverage ratio is positively affected by non - debt tax shield. The result confirms that a large number of companies are state - owned, will have an insignificant impact of firm's size (as reverse proxy for bankruptcy cost) on leverage ratio. We also find that there is no distinction between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises due to strict adherence to the rules set by the Vietnamese government. Distinct from other countries, corporate income tax has slight impact on capital structure in Vietnamese firms.

Risk analysis of offshore terminals in the Caspian Sea

  • Mokhtari, Kambiz;Amanee, Jamshid
    • Ocean Systems Engineering
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.261-285
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    • 2019
  • Nowadays in offshore industry there are emerging hazards with vague property such as act of terrorism, act of war, unforeseen natural disasters such as tsunami, etc. Therefore industry professionals such as offshore energy insurers, safety engineers and risk managers in order to determine the failure rates and frequencies for the potential hazards where there is no data available, they need to use an appropriate method to overcome this difficulty. Furthermore in conventional risk based analysis models such as when using a fault tree analysis, hazards with vague properties are normally waived and ignored. In other word in previous situations only a traditional probability based fault tree analysis could be implemented. To overcome this shortcoming fuzzy set theory is applied to fault tree analysis to combine the known and unknown data in which the pre-combined result will be determined under a fuzzy environment. This has been fulfilled by integration of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis model into the risk assessment phase of the Risk Management (RM) cycles as a backbone of the phase. For this reason Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) are used to analyse one of the significant risk factors associated in offshore terminals. This process will eventually help the insurers and risk managers in marine and offshore industries to investigate the potential hazards more in detail if there is vagueness. For this purpose a case study of offshore terminal while coinciding with the nature of the Caspian Sea was decided to be examined.

Instability of (Heterogeneous) Euler beam: Deterministic vs. stochastic reduced model approach

  • Ibrahimbegovic, Adnan;Mejia-Nava, Rosa Adela;Hajdo, Emina;Limnios, Nikolaos
    • Coupled systems mechanics
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.167-198
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    • 2022
  • In this paper we deal with classical instability problems of heterogeneous Euler beam under conservative loading. It is chosen as the model problem to systematically present several possible solution methods from simplest deterministic to more complex stochastic approach, both of which that can handle more complex engineering problems. We first present classical analytic solution along with rigorous definition of the classical Euler buckling problem starting from homogeneous beam with either simplified linearized theory or the most general geometrically exact beam theory. We then present the numerical solution to this problem by using reduced model constructed by discrete approximation based upon the weak form of the instability problem featuring von Karman (virtual) strain combined with the finite element method. We explain how such numerical approach can easily be adapted to solving instability problems much more complex than classical Euler's beam and in particular for heterogeneous beam, where analytic solution is not readily available. We finally present the stochastic approach making use of the Duffing oscillator, as the corresponding reduced model for heterogeneous Euler's beam within the dynamics framework. We show that such an approach allows computing probability density function quantifying all possible solutions to this instability problem. We conclude that increased computational cost of the stochastic framework is more than compensated by its ability to take into account beam material heterogeneities described in terms of fast oscillating stochastic process, which is typical of time evolution of internal variables describing plasticity and damage.