• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability of success

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Business Ecosystem-focused Commercialization Strategy for Real-time Monitoring and Detection Technology for Landslides (실시간 산사태 모니터링 및 탐지기술에 대한 비즈니스 생태계 기반 기술사업화 전략 연구)

  • Sawng, Yeong-Wha;Lim, Dong-Hyun;Chae, Byung-Gon;Choi, Junghae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.223-233
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    • 2016
  • This study establishes a commercialization strategy for technology that can monitor and detect landslides in real time. An effective commercialization strategy was sought through both qualitative and quantitative analyses. The qualitative analysis considered the business environment in detail, while the quantitative analysis examined technologically strong and weak areas by visualizing the links between IPC (International Patent Classification) code structure and patent applicants. The results from both analyses are considered together, with particular attention paid to the business environment. The resulting integrated analysis comprehensively explores the degree of technological development and the current state of real-time monitoring and detection technology for landslides. The integrated analysis identified complementary assets in the business environment, as there is strong development and many research entities in this area. This suggests positive reinforcement for commercialization with two sub-strategies: (1) exploring demand with complementary assets, and (2) providing technology information for explored demand, which should facilitate successful commercialization. Exploiting this positive reinforcement for technology commercialization could reduce the high uncertainty of the technology and the market, and thus increase the probability of successful commercialization. It is also expected to contribute to long-term success by strengthening collaboration between the supply and demand sides.

A Study on MAC Protocol Design for Mobile Healthcare (모바일 헬스케어를 위한 MAC 프로토콜 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Pil-Seong;Kim, Hyeon-Gyu;Cho, Yang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.323-335
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    • 2015
  • Mobile healthcare is a fusion of information technology and biotechnology and is a new type of health management service to keep people's health at anytime and anywhere without regard to time and space. The WBAN(Wireless Body Area Network) technology that collects bio signals and the data analysis and monitoring technology using mobile devices are essential for serving mobile healthcare. WBAN consisting of users with mobile devices meet another WBAN during movement, WBANs transmit data to the other media. Because of WBAN conflict, several nodes transmit data in same time slot so a collision will occur, resulting in the data transmission being failed and need more energy for re-transmission. In this thesis, we proposed a MAC protocol for WBAN with mobility to solve these problems. First, we proposed a superframe structure for WBAN. The proposed superframe consists of a TDMA(Time Division Muliple Access) based contention access phase with which a node can transmit data in its own time slot and a contention phase using CSMA/CA algorithm. Second, we proposed a network merging algorithm for conflicting WBAN based on the proposed MAC protocol. When a WBAN with mobility conflicts with other WBAN, data frame collision is reduced through network reestablishment. Simulations are performed using a Castalia based on the OMNeT++ network simulation framework to estimate the performance of the proposed superframe and algorithms. We estimated the performance of WBAN based on the proposed MAC protocol by comparing the performance of the WBAN based on IEEE 802.15.6. Performance evaluation results show that the packet transmission success rate and energy efficiency are improved by reducing the probability of collision using the proposed MAC protocol.

Integrated stratigraphic approach for enhancing the efficiency of domestic resources exploration and development (국내 자원 탐사 및 개발의 효율성 증대를 위한 통합 층서적 접근)

  • Ryu In-Chang
    • The Korean Journal of Petroleum Geology
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    • v.9 no.1_2 s.10
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    • pp.24-39
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    • 2001
  • Prospecting for energy and mineral resources is essential kind of public fundamentals that manage the nation's economy. Most explorations in the past were concentrated in the simple structural traps in relatively shallow depth. Due to their vast exploitation, recent history has shown that the emphasis in explorations has steadily shifted toward the subtle stratigraphic traps in deeper level. Increasing exploration for the subtle stratigraphic traps in deeper level requires precise correlation and assessment of deeply buried strata in the basin. However, the descriptive stratigraphic principles used for evaluation of the simple structural traps are limited to delineate the subtle stratigraphic traps in deeper depth. As this occurs, it is imperative to establish a new stratigrtaphic paradigm that allows a more sophisticated understanding on the basin stratigraphy. This study provides an exemplary application of integrated stratigraphic approach to defining basin stratigraphy of the Middle Ordovician Taebacksan Basin and the Cretaceous South Yellow Sea Basin, Korea. The integrated stratigraphic approach gives much better insight to unravel the stratigraphic response to tectonic evolution of the basins, which can be utilized for enhancing the efficiency of resources exploration and development in the basins. Thus, the integrated stratigraphic approach should be considered as a new stratigraphic norm that can improve the probability of success in any type of resources exploration and development project.

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Analysis of the Impact Relationship for Risk Factors on Big Data Projects Using SNA (SNA를 활용한 빅데이터 프로젝트의 위험요인 영향 관계 분석)

  • Park, Dae-Gwi;Kim, Seung-Hee
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2021
  • In order to increase the probability of success in big data projects, quantified techniques are required to analyze the root cause of risks from complex causes and establish optimal countermeasures. To this end, this study measures risk factors and relationships through SNA analysis and presents a way to respond to risks based on them. In other words, it derives a dependency network matrix by utilizing the results of correlation analysis between risk groups in the big data projects presented in the preliminary study and performs SNA analysis. In order to derive the dependency network matrix, partial correlation is obtained from the correlation between the risk nodes, and activity dependencies are derived by node by calculating the correlation influence and correlation dependency, thereby producing the causal relationship between the risk nodes and the degree of influence between all nodes in correlation. Recognizing the root cause of risks from networks between risk factors derived through SNA between risk factors enables more optimized and efficient risk management. This study is the first to apply SNA analysis techniques in relation to risk management response, and the results of this study are significant in that it not only optimizes the sequence of risk management for major risks in relation to risk management in IT projects but also presents a new risk analysis technique for risk control.

Determine Optimal Timing for Out-Licensing of New Drugs in the Aspect of Biotech (신약의 기술이전 최적시기 결정 문제 - 바이오텍의 측면에서)

  • Na, Byungsoo;Kim, Jaeyoung
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.105-121
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    • 2020
  • With regard to the development of new drugs, what is most important for a Korean Biotech, where no global sales network has been established, is decision-making related to out-licensing of new drugs. The probability of success for each clinical phase is different, and the licensing amount and its royalty vary depending on which clinical phase the licensing contract is made. Due to the nature of such a licensing contract and Biotech's weak financial status, it is a very important decision-making issue for a Biotech to determine when to license out to a Big Pharma. This study defined a model called 'optimal timing for out-licensing of new drugs' and the results were derived from the decision tree analysis. As a case study, we applied to a Biotech in Korea, which is conducting FDA global clinical trials for a first-in-class new drug. Assuming that the market size and expected market penetration rate of the target disease are known, it has been shown that out-licensing after phase 1 or phase 2 of clinical trials is a best alternative that maximizes Biotech's profits. This study can provide a conceptual framework for the use of management science methodologies in pharmaceutical fields, thus laying the foundation for knowledge and research on out-licensing of new drugs.

Integrated stratigraphy approach for new additional limestone reserves in the Paleozoic Taebacksan Basin, Korea (고생대 태백산 분지 석회석 자원의 신규 추가 매장량 확보를 위한 통합 층서적 접근)

  • 유인창
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.59-74
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    • 2003
  • Prospecting for energy and mineral resources is essential kind of public fundamentals that manage the nation's economy. Most explorations in the past were concentrated in the simple structural traps in relatively shallow depth. Due to their vast exploitation, recent history has shown that the emphasis in explorations has steadily shifted toward the subtle stratigraphic traps in deeper level. Increasing exploration for the subtle stratigraphic traps in deeper level requires precise correlation and assessment of deeply buried strata in the basin. However, the descriptive strati-graphic principles used for evaluation of the simple structural traps are limited to delineate the subtle stratigraphic traps in deeper depth. As this occurs. it is imperative to establish a new stratigraphic paradigm that allows a more sophisticated understanding on the basin stratigraphy. This study provides an exemplary application of integrated stratigraphic approach to defining basin history of the Middle Ordovician Taebacksan Basin, Korea. The integrated stratigraphic approach gives much better insight to unravel the stratigraphic response to tectonic evolution of the basins, which can be utilized fer enhancing the efficiency of resources exploration and development in the basins. Thus, the integrated stratigraphic approach should be emphasized as a new stratigraphic norm that can improve the probability of success in any type of resources exploration and development project.

Risk Identification and Priority method for Overseas LNG Plant Projects - Focusing on Design Phase - (해외 LNG 플랜트 리스크요인 도출 및 우선순위 평가 - 설계단계를 중심으로 -)

  • Jang, Woo-Sik;Hong, Hwa-Uk;Han, Seung-Heon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.146-154
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    • 2011
  • Korean contractors have been maintained sustainable growth since entering into overseas construction market for the first time in 1960' s. In 2010, Korean contractors ordered 761 billion (USD) from overseas markets. Especially, billion (USD) were earned by Korean contractors in overseas plant construction market which account for more than 80% of the total amount by Korean contractors. Nevertheless, many Korean contractors are suffering from lack of technological competitiveness and construction management skills in the design phase compared with global leading contractors. These conditions have directly effect on the success of projects in terms of cost, duration, and quality. So, this study focused on identifying the risk factors and developing risk priority method for the design phase of LNG plant projects whose market is expanding. Research procedures were conducted by the following three steps. First, total 57 risk factors were identified in design phase through extensive literature reviews and experts survey. Second, the authors developed risk priority method which are more suitable for design phase of LNG plant projects by using three criteria, Probability(P), Impact(I), and Coordination Index(CI). Finally, the suitability of risk priority method and practical applicability were verified through expert survey and interview. Consequently, if korean contractors use the suggested risk factors and priority method based on their own know-how and experiences, then more reasonable and rational risk management will be conducted in the design phase of LNG plant projects.

Duty Cycle Scheduling considering Delay Time Constraints in Wireless Sensor Networks (무선네트워크에서의 지연시간제약을 고려한 듀티사이클 스케쥴링)

  • Vu, Duy Son;Yoon, Seokhoon
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.169-176
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we consider duty-cycled wireless sensor networks (WSNs) in which sensor nodes are periodically dormant in order to reduce energy consumption. In such networks, as the duty cycle interval increases, the energy consumption decreases. However, a higher duty cycle interval leads to the increase in the end-to-end (E2E) delay. Many applications of WSNs are delay-sensitive and require packets to be delivered from the sensr nodes to the sink with delay requirements. Most of existing studies focus on only reducing the E2E delay, rather than considering the delay bound requirement, which makes hard to achieve the balanced performance between E2E delay and energy consumption. A few study that considered delay bound requirement require time synchronization between neighboring nodes or a specific distribution of deployed nodes. In order to address limitations of existing works, we propose a duty-cycle scheduling algorithm that aims to achieve low energy consumption, while satisfying the delay requirements. To that end, we first estimate the probability distribution for the E2E delay. Then, by using the obtained distribution we determine the maximal duty cycle interval that still satisfies the delay constraint. Simulation results show that the proposed design can satisfy the given delay bound requirements while achieving low energy consumption.

Improvement and Validation of Convective Rainfall Rate Retrieved from Visible and Infrared Image Bands of the COMS Satellite (COMS 위성의 가시 및 적외 영상 채널로부터 복원된 대류운의 강우강도 향상과 검증)

  • Moon, Yun Seob;Lee, Kangyeol
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.37 no.7
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    • pp.420-433
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to improve the calibration matrixes of 2-D and 3-D convective rainfall rates (CRR) using the brightness temperature of the infrared $10.8{\mu}m$ channel (IR), the difference of brightness temperatures between infrared $10.8{\mu}m$ and vapor $6.7{\mu}m$ channels (IR-WV), and the normalized reflectance of the visible channel (VIS) from the COMS satellite and rainfall rate from the weather radar for the period of 75 rainy days from April 22, 2011 to October 22, 2011 in Korea. Especially, the rainfall rate data of the weather radar are used to validate the new 2-D and 3-DCRR calibration matrixes suitable for the Korean peninsula for the period of 24 rainy days in 2011. The 2D and 3D calibration matrixes provide the basic and maximum CRR values ($mm\;h^{-1}$) by multiplying the rain probability matrix, which is calculated by using the number of rainy and no-rainy pixels with associated 2-D (IR, IR-WV) and 3-D (IR, IR-WV, VIS) matrixes, by the mean and maximum rainfall rate matrixes, respectively, which is calculated by dividing the accumulated rainfall rate by the number of rainy pixels and by the product of the maximum rain rate for the calibration period by the number of rain occurrences. Finally, new 2-D and 3-D CRR calibration matrixes are obtained experimentally from the regression analysis of both basic and maximum rainfall rate matrixes. As a result, an area of rainfall rate more than 10 mm/h is magnified in the new ones as well as CRR is shown in lower class ranges in matrixes between IR brightness temperature and IR-WV brightness temperature difference than the existing ones. Accuracy and categorical statistics are computed for the data of CRR events occurred during the given period. The mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean squire error (RMSE) in new 2-D and 3-D CRR calibrations led to smaller than in the existing ones, where false alarm ratio had decreased, probability of detection had increased a bit, and critical success index scores had improved. To take into account the strong rainfall rate in the weather events such as thunderstorms and typhoon, a moisture correction factor is corrected. This factor is defined as the product of the total precipitable waterby the relative humidity (PW RH), a mean value between surface and 500 hPa level, obtained from a numerical model or the COMS retrieval data. In this study, when the IR cloud top brightness temperature is lower than 210 K and the relative humidity is greater than 40%, the moisture correction factor is empirically scaled from 1.0 to 2.0 basing on PW RH values. Consequently, in applying to this factor in new 2D and 2D CRR calibrations, the ME, MAE, and RMSE are smaller than the new ones.

Technology Innovation Activity and Default Risk (기술혁신활동이 부도위험에 미치는 영향 : 한국 유가증권시장 및 코스닥시장 상장기업을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jin-Su
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.55-80
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    • 2009
  • Technology innovation activity plays a pivotal role in constructing the entrance barrier for other firms and making process improvement and new product. and these activities give a profit increase and growth to firms. Thus, technology innovation activity can reduce the default risk of firms. However, technology innovation activity can also increase the firm's default risk because technology innovation activity requires too much investment of the firm's resources and has the uncertainty on success. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of technology innovation activity on the default risk of firms. This study's sample consists of manufacturing firms listed on the Korea Securities Market and The Kosdaq Market from January 1,2000 to December 31, 2008. This study makes use of R&D intensity as an proxy variable of technology innovation activity. The default probability which proxies the default risk of firms is measured by the Merton's(l974) debt pricing model. The main empirical results are as follows. First, from the empirical results, it is found that technology innovation activity has a negative and significant effect on the default risk of firms independent of the Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market. In other words, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms. Second, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms independent of firm size, firm age, and credit score. Third, the results of robust analysis also show that technology innovation activity is the important factor which decreases the default risk of firms. These results imply that a manager must show continuous interest and investment in technology innovation activity of one's firm. And a policymaker also need design an economic policy to promote the technology innovation activity of firms.

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