• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability calculation

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Development of a Program for Constructing Electromagnetic Noise Database (전파 잡음 데이터베이스 구축을 위한 프로그램 개발)

  • Yuk Jai-Lim;Hur Moon-Man;Yoon Hyun-Bo
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.856-862
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    • 2004
  • This paper introduces a program by which we can extract the optimal parameters from the statistical model, the amplitude probability distribution(APD), of the electromagnetic noise using genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm used in this program has the advantages of the reduction of calculation time, the automation of extraction process, and the operation of global optimization.

A Predictive Two-Group Multinormal Classification Rule Accounting for Model Uncertainty

  • Kim, Hea-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.477-491
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    • 1997
  • A new predictive classification rule for assigning future cases into one of two multivariate normal population (with unknown normal mixture model) is considered. The development involves calculation of posterior probability of each possible normal-mixture model via a default Bayesian test criterion, called intrinsic Bayes factor, and suggests predictive distribution for future cases to be classified that accounts for model uncertainty by weighting the effect of each model by its posterior probabiliy. In this paper, our interest is focused on constructing the classification rule that takes care of uncertainty about the types of covariance matrices (homogeneity/heterogeneity) involved in the model. For the constructed rule, a Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates routine application and notes benefits over traditional predictive calssification rule by Geisser (1982).

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Independence in probability, The conflicts between its intuitive concept and formal definition (확률 영역에서의 독립성, 그 직관적 개념과 형식적 정의의 갈등)

  • Cho, Cha-Mi;Park, Jong-Youll
    • The Mathematical Education
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.373-386
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    • 2008
  • In highschool probability education, this study analyzed conflicts between intuitive concept and formal definition which originates from the process of establishing the concept of statistical independence. In judging independence, completely different types of problems requiring their own approach was analyzed by dividing them into two types. By doing so, this study researched a way to view independence as an overall idea. That is purposed to suggest a solution to a conflicts between intuitive concept and formal definition and to help not to judge independence out of wrong intuition. This study also suggests that calculation process which leads to precise perception of sample space and event be provided when we prove independence by expressing events with assembly symbols.

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FORMATION OF LINE PROFILE: SEI METHOD

  • CHOE SEUNG-URN;KANG MIN-YOUNG;KIM KYUNG-MEE
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.93-105
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    • 1996
  • We have solved the radiative transfer problem using a Sobolev approximation with an escape probability method in case of the supersonic expansion of a stellar envelope to an ambient medium. The radiation from the expanding envelope turns out to produce a P-Cygni type profile. In order to investigate the morphology of the theoretical P-Cygni type profile, we have treated $V_\infty,\;V_{sto},\;\beta$ (parameters for the velocity field), it and E(parameter for collisional effect) as model parameters. We have investigated that the velocity field and the mass loss rate affect the shapes of the P-Cygni type profiles most effectively. The secondarily important factors are $V_\infty,\;V_{sto}$. The collisional effect tends to make the total flux increased but not so much in magnitude. We have infered some physical parameters of 68 Cyg, HD24912, and $\xi$ persei such as $V_\infty,\;M$ from the model calculation, which shows a good agreenment with the observational results.

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The probability approach for the personal risk calculation of the passenger due to a tunnel fire (터널 화재시 승객의 개인적 위험도 계산에 대한 확률적 접근)

  • Kim, Dong-Jin;Hwang, Young-Ha;Jang, Yong-Jun
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1246-1254
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    • 2008
  • The land transportation is the most common way to transport passengers as well as freight among other mode of transportations and consequently more likely to be constructed for faster and convenient travel In this regard, the demand for tunnel constructions will be increasing and the safety inside the tunnel will be considered major concern more than ever. In this paper, we show probabilistic methodology to calculate the personal risk of each evacuee starting from a different location in a tunnel on fire. Passenger evacuation time and smoke spread time are both assumed to be continuous random variables having specific distributions. The evacuation of passengers at each location and the safety facilities inside the tunnel are also crucial factors to calculate the probability of death.

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Analysis of Tunnelling Rate Effect on Single Electron Transistor

  • Sheela, L.;Balamurugan, N.B.;Sudha, S.;Jasmine, J.
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1670-1676
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents the modeling of Single Electron Transistor (SET) based on Physical model of a device and its equivalent circuit. The physical model is derived from Schrodinger equation. The wave function of the electrode is calculated using Hartree-Fock method and the quantum dot calculation is obtained from WKB approximation. The resulting wave functions are used to compute tunneling rates. From the tunneling rate the current is calculated. The equivalent circuit model discuss about the effect of capacitance on tunneling probability and free energy change. The parameters of equivalent circuit are extracted and optimized using genetic algorithm. The effect of tunneling probability, temperature variation effect on tunneling rate, coulomb blockade effect and current voltage characteristics are discussed.

Simplified Machine Diagnosis Techniques by Impact Vibration using n-th Moment of Absolute Deterioration Factor

  • Takeyasu, Kazuhiro;Amemiya, Takashi;Tanaka, Jumpei;Masuda, Shiro
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.68-74
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    • 2005
  • Among many dimensional and dimensionless amplitude parameters, kurtosis (4-th normalized moment of probability density function) is generally regarded as a sensitive good parameter for machine diagnosis. However, higher order moment may be supposed to be much more sensitive. Bicoherence is an absolute deterioration factor whose range is 1 to 0. The theoretical value of n-th moment divided by n-th moment calculated by measured data would behave in the same way. We propose a simplified calculation method for an absolute index of n-th moment and name this as simplified absolute index of n-th moment. Some favorable results are obtained.

Noise Effect in a Nonlinear System Under Harmonic Excitation (불규칙한 외부 교란이 주기적 가진을 받는 비선형계의 동적 특성에 미치는 영향)

  • 박시형;김지환
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.145-153
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    • 1997
  • Dynamic characteristics are investigated when a nonlinear system showing periodic and chaotic responses under harmonic excitation is exposed to random perturbation. About two well potential problem, probability of homoclinic bifurcation is estimated using stochastic generalized Meinikov process and quantitive characteristics are investigated by calculation of Lyapunov exponent. Critical excitaion is calculated by various assumptions about Gaussian Melnikov process. To verify the phenomenon graphically Fokker-Planck equation is solved numerically and the original nonlinear equation is numerically simulated. Numerical solution of Fokker-Planck equation is calculated on Poincare section and noise induced chaos is studied by solving the eigenvalue problem of discretized probability density function.

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Photovoltaic Generation System Output Forecasting using Irradiance Probability Distribution Function (일사량 확률분포함수를 이용한 태양광 발전시스템 발전량 예측)

  • Lee Il Ryong;Bae In Su;Jung Chang Ho;Kim Jln O;Shim Hun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • summer
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    • pp.548-550
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    • 2004
  • This paper suggests a methodology for calculation of photovoltaic(PV) generation system output using probability distribution function, PV way efficiency and PV system design Parameters. Long term irradiance recorded for every hour of the day for 11 years were used. For goodness-fit test, several distribution functions are tested by Kolmogorov- Smirnov(K-S) test. And the calculated generation output is compared with that of CMS(Centered Monitoring System), which can monitoring PV generation output of each PV generation site.

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Evaluation of Systematic Safety for a Small Reservoir Group based on System Reliability Technique (체계 신뢰성 기법을 이용한 소규모 저수지군의 시스템적 안전도 평가)

  • Park, Jin-Seon;Jeon, Jeong-Bae;Yoon, Seong-Soo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.101-108
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the safety of the small reservoir, which is distributed in a rural area, based on systemic reliability. It has been estimated that safety of respective reservoir the calculation of failure probability for individual reservoirs can evaluate the safety of the reservoir of the study area. The change of safety for watershed could be figured out as that result. Probability of failure was increased from $3.90{\times}10^{-5}$ to $1.35{\times}10^{-4}$ in Naesu-inpyung reservoir, from $1.33{\times}10^{-5}$ to $4.77{\times}10^{-5}$ in Buyeon reservoir and from $4.24{\times}10^{-5}$ to $2.55{\times}10^{-2}$ in Dalakmal respectively. From the results, the collapse of the upper stream reservoir was analyzed qualitatively that may affect the safety of the reservoir on the downstream area.